EBRD Invested Over $100 Million in Tajikistan’s Economy in 2025
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) invested nearly $103 million in Tajikistan’s economy in 2025, signing 19 agreements over the course of the year. The funding targeted key sectors including energy, transport, municipal infrastructure, and private sector development. According to the bank, 83% of its 2025 loan portfolio in Tajikistan supported sustainable infrastructure projects. Another 14% of resources were channelled through local banks to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), women’s and youth entrepreneurship initiatives, and programs focused on climate adaptation and resource efficiency. The public sector received the majority of financing, accounting for 83% of the EBRD’s annual activity in the country. Of the total lending volume, approximately 58% was directed toward green economy development. One of the year’s largest initiatives was a financing package of up to €43 million for the state-owned power distribution company, Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The package includes an EBRD sovereign loan of up to €28 million and a €15 million grant from the European Union. These funds are being used to modernize electricity metering and billing systems across nine cities in the Khatlon and Sughd regions. Significant investment also went into road infrastructure. An EBRD sovereign loan of up to €38 million, combined with an $86.7 million grant from the Asian Development Bank, will fund the reconstruction of the Danghara-Guliston highway. The route connects the north and south of the Khatlon region, which produces over half of Tajikistan’s agricultural output and is home to more than one-third of the population. A major energy milestone was achieved in 2025 with the completion of the Kayrokkum hydropower plant’s modernization. The plant’s installed capacity increased from 126 MW to 174 MW after all six units were brought online. Serving around 500,000 people in the Sughd region, the project, initiated in 2019, was financed with $196 million arranged by the EBRD. The bank also issued three sovereign loans totaling over €12 million for water supply system upgrades in Kulyab and Yavan, and for the modernization of Dushanbe’s centralized heating system. Alongside infrastructure projects, the EBRD expanded its support for the private sector. In 2025, more than 500 small enterprises across Tajikistan received various forms of assistance from the bank.
Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode – B5+1, Sanctions, and a New Constitution – Out Now
As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team will be covering the B5+1 summit in Bishkek, the prospect of new EU sanctions targeting Kyrgyzstan, fresh complications around Rosatom's nuclear plans in Uzbekistan, shake-ups inside Uzbekistan's internal security services, and some genuinely surprising new drug-use statistics coming out of Tajikistan. We'll also look at the latest shootout on the Tajikistan–Afghanistan border. And then, for our main story, we will be diving into Kazakhstan's newly released draft constitution and what it signals about where the political system is heading next. On the show this week: - Yevgeny Zhovtis (Human Rights Activist) - Aiman Umarova (Kazakh Lawyer) Hosted by Bruce Pannier and Michael Hilliard
What the U.S. Really Wants in Central Asia: Behind the B5+1 Forums
The B5+1 business forum continued in Kyrgyzstan’s capital on February 5, as government officials, regional business leaders, and a sizable U.S. delegation met to discuss trade, investment, and regulatory barriers shaping economic ties between Central Asia and the United States.
As Washington signals a more pragmatic, commercially driven approach to the region, questions persist over why U.S. investment has lagged behind political engagement and which markets are truly seen as priorities. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dmitry Orlov, director of the Strategy: East–West analytical center, about the structural obstacles deterring American capital, the shift in U.S. policy thinking, and how Central Asian states are positioned within Washington’s evolving economic calculus.
TCA: What serious U.S. capital investments in Central Asia can we talk about today? ORLOV: It is important to understand the main point. Talk of large investments, the arrival of American business, and long-term economic cooperation only makes sense in one case: if the U.S. repeals the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which was adopted back in the 1970s and extended to all former Soviet republics after the collapse of the USSR. Today, it remains a formal and, in many ways, psychological obstacle to a fully-fledged business partnership. At the same time, it is necessary to establish contacts at a business level right now. This is because if the amendment is repealed - and such statements are regularly heard in Washington - it is difficult to predict which countries in the region will receive investment flows and in what volumes. Recent international forums, including Davos, have shown that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are of the greatest interest to the U.S. in Central Asia. Their economies are developing more dynamically, and they can offer large-scale projects and a clear export base. The other countries in the region, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, are still perceived by investors as lower priorities. TCA: Previously, the U.S. actively promoted a political agenda in the region, including human rights and freedom of speech. Now these are rarely mentioned. Why do you think this is the case? ORLOV: The approach has become more pragmatic. The history of U.S. foreign policy shows that strategic and economic interests have always taken precedence. If a territory is attractive in terms of resources or transit routes, a format for cooperation will be found. In Europe, relatively speaking, the rule of law prevails. In Asia, the situation is different, and the Americans understand this perfectly well. Issues of ideology and human rights can move to the background if economic expediency comes first. This is especially true in Central Asia, where many issues are resolved through personal agreements and informal connections. Washington understands this. TCA: What exactly can Central Asia offer the U.S.? ORLOV: In terms of individual countries, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are again in the lead. They offer oil, gas, and, no less importantly, control over transit routes. There is currently a lot of discussion about rare earths and critical minerals, but their development is always long and expensive. As a result, interest in them is largely political and declarative. First and foremost, it is about signaling presence and intent. It may take decades before such projects actually materialize. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also have a resource base, but developing deposits there is difficult and costly. Turkmenistan stands apart as a special case. A significant share of its gas volumes has already been contracted by China in exchange for earlier infrastructure loans. At the same time, it has a petrochemical industry, transport arteries, and logistics potential. TCA: What does Central Asia expect from the U.S.? ORLOV: Beyond investment and technology, political balance is important for the region. Against the backdrop of talk about possible EU sanctions against Kyrgyzstan, diplomatic activity has intensified. In my view, the key question for the U.S. is what it can offer that Russia and China, already deeply integrated into the region’s economy, cannot. U.S. trade turnover with Kyrgyzstan, for example, does not even rank in the top ten. Therefore, there is not only economic but also political logic at work, an attempt to strengthen its presence in the region. Central Asia today is a space where the interests of China, Russia, Iran, and the West intersect. None of these actors has a monopoly on influence. That is why the region remains an area of balance. American and European companies extract oil in Kazakhstan. Chinese companies do as well. Russian companies are also present. So far, these interests have not come into direct conflict. As a result, we should not expect open confrontation between global players, at least in the near future. TCA: How realistic is it that repealing the Jackson-Vanik amendment could change the investment landscape in Central Asia? ORLOV: For now, it is more of a political signal than an economic calculation. Western media have barely discussed potential investment volumes in the event of its repeal. No concrete figures are being cited. This resembles a situation in which a decision has ostensibly been “made,” but real steps remain distant. The amendment has been discussed since the Clinton administration, yet it has never progressed beyond declarations. In essence, it remains a carrot dangling in front of a donkey. TCA: Would it be fair to say, then, that regional forums, including the B5+1, are largely symbolic? ORLOV: Exactly. The first forum in Almaty in 2024 was a stage of familiarization and mutual assessment. The meeting in Bishkek is an attempt to outline the contours of possible cooperation. The key questions for both sides today are extremely pragmatic: what are we being offered, and what can we get in return?
B5+1 Forum Opens as U.S. Companies Expand Economic Footprint in Central Asia
Business leaders and government officials from Central Asia and the United States gathered in Kyrgyzstan’s capital on February 4 for the start of the second B5+1 Business Forum. Co-organized by the Kyrgyz government and the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the event is intended to bring together private companies, business associations, officials, and experts interested in expanding U.S.–Central Asia commercial ties. More than 50 U.S. companies are participating in the event. The B5+1 is the business-track counterpart to the C5+1 diplomatic format that links the United States with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The B5+1 brings companies and policymakers together to identify barriers to investment and propose cross-border regulatory changes. This week’s meeting in Bishkek follows the inaugural B5+1 forum held in Almaty on March 14–15, 2024, which drew more than 250 stakeholders from across Central Asia and the United States. It produced 21 private-sector recommendations aimed at easing trade, improving regulations, and building regional economic integration. The Bishkek agenda is built around reviewing progress on those recommendations and setting priorities for the next phase of work. Central Asian officials have used the event to signal interest in region-wide coordination rather than country-by-country deals. In comments made in Bishkek, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Ersaiyn Nagaspaev, emphasized that foreign investors increasingly assess Central Asia as a single market, reflecting a push to align regulations and investment conditions across borders. Nagaspaev noted that more than 600 U.S. companies currently operate in Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, used the forum to highlight domestic economic performance within that regional context. In a speech at the forum, Kyrgyzstan’s First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Daniyar Amangeldiev, said Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in 2025, which he described as one of the highest growth rates in the region. Addressing the forum, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor stated that the United States intends to expand its economic engagement with Central Asia. “The private sector, not intergovernmental agreements, will become the key instrument of interaction," he told those in attendance, identifying electronic commerce, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, agriculture, and transport infrastructure as priority areas. Gor noted that the American companies present at the forum represent the largest and most comprehensive U.S. commercial delegation ever to visit Central Asia. The U.S. recognizes the importance of Central Asia in global trade and connectivity, he stated. "The United States is open for business. We're open for peace. We're opening to strengthen our ties around the world. So that’s why it's fitting that the first C5 event in 2026 is this B5 + 1 forum,” Gor said, linking the Bishkek discussions to economic commitments made at the C5+1 summit in Washington in November 2025. “The Transport Corridor for Peace and Prosperity will provide reliable connectivity from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to global markets,” Gor said. “This is a historic opportunity to strengthen economic integration and long-term prosperity across the region.” During his visit to Bishkek, Gor also met with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, with the meeting covering economic cooperation and U.S. business engagement in Kyrgyzstan, including the participation of American companies in the B5+1. The Kyrgyz presidency said the two sides also discussed prospects for expanding trade, attracting investment, and developing cooperation in priority economic sectors. Discussions in Bishkek highlighted how the B5+1 is being positioned as a standing mechanism rather than a one-off meeting. CIPE has framed the forum as part of an ongoing cycle in which private-sector proposals are developed through working groups and carried forward between annual meetings. U.S. officials have linked the B5+1 more directly to Washington’s broader economic approach toward Central Asia. During his regional trip, which also includes Uzbekistan, Sergio Gor’s schedule has centered on business engagement and investment promotion rather than security or political consultations. For the Kyrgyz authorities, hosting the forum is part of a broader effort to position the country as a regional convening hub. A December notice from Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Economy and Commerce described the B5+1 as a regional business mechanism within the C5+1 framework, rather than a Kyrgyz-specific initiative. Previous B5+1 recommendations have focused on regulatory alignment, trade facilitation, and investment conditions, but no public timeline has been announced for publishing updated recommendations from the Bishkek meeting. CIPE has said outputs from earlier forums were compiled after consultations rather than issued as immediate communiqués. The absence of signed agreements or joint statements on the opening day has kept attention focused on whether the forum produces measurable follow-up. Earlier B5+1 recommendations from the 2024 Almaty meeting were published weeks after the event, following additional consultations with governments and business groups. The B5+1 concludes on February 5. Any updated recommendations or sector-specific commitments are expected to emerge after the forum rather than during the event itself.
The “Central Asia 2030” Roundtable in Astana: From External Interest to Regional Choice
Discussions about Central Asia’s long-term strategic future are increasingly shifting from a focus on external attention to one of growing regional agency. On Monday, Astana International University hosted the first roundtable in the series Central Asia 2030: Strategic Horizons and Regional Choices. Speakers included Andrew D’Anieri, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Yerkin Tukumov, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan; Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova; and Dauren Aben, Deputy Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan. Pragmatism, Regional Choice, and the Logic of the “Grand Bargain” In his remarks, Andrew D’Anieri emphasized that Central Asia is increasingly viewed in the U.S. not as a peripheral zone but as an independent strategic partner. He noted that “environmental, water, and climate issues considered within a regional framework are fully supported by the U.S.” However, he added that “long-term commercial and investment projects are impossible without long-term stability, which in turn requires coordination between neighbors, engagement on sensitive issues, and pragmatic regional cooperation.” D’Anieri also pointed to Afghanistan as “an integral part of regional logic,” and described formats such as C5+1 as evidence of Central Asia’s growing subjectivity. He highlighted the first-ever C5+1 summit at the presidential level in Washington as a landmark event, especially under the administration of Donald Trump, known for its preference for bilateral over multilateral formats. Trump and the Possibility of a Visit: Only with a “Big Deal” When asked whether a visit by President Trump to Central Asia is realistic, D’Anieri offered a candid assessment: “Such a visit is only possible if there is a large, symbolically and economically significant deal.” Whether in aviation, technology, or infrastructure, these high-visibility projects are typically what draw Trump’s engagement. He added that “the region has work to do in developing a package of initiatives that could interest the U.S. president and justify a high-level visit.” Potential areas include mining, transport, and logistics. Reframing Afghanistan’s Role in the Region Special Representative Yerkin Tukumov focused on the importance of reframing the region’s relationship with Afghanistan. For too long, he said, Afghanistan has been viewed primarily “through the prism of security threats,” resulting in a narrow and often misleading approach. Tukumov argued for a broader, more pragmatic view that considers economic, humanitarian, and cross-border dimensions. He described the C5+1 format not as a replacement for bilateral diplomacy, but as “an additional level of coordination where Central Asia can speak with a more consolidated voice without losing national autonomy in foreign policy.” He stressed the need to move beyond “ideological and declarative approaches,” toward practical, interest-based mechanisms of cooperation. Ecology, Water, and the Case for a Global Water Agency Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova addressed the strategic urgency of regional coordination on water and climate. She emphasized that “water issues are transboundary in nature,” and that efforts to resolve them solely within national frameworks are bound to fall short. “Regional coordination in Central Asia is not a political slogan, but a functional necessity,” she said. Suleimenova argued that jointly promoting initiatives in international forums “strengthens the region’s negotiating position, reduces mistrust, and increases legitimacy.” She described water as “not a factor of division, but a platform for cooperation.” She also criticized the inefficiency of current global water governance mechanisms. “International formats are overloaded, poorly managed, and often fail to yield results, particularly in the water sector,” she said. In this context, she expressed support for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s proposal to establish a dedicated UN water agency. Regional Choice as Strategic Imperative Throughout the roundtable, the theme of Regional Choices emerged as central. As Dauren Aben noted, “Central Asia remains a region of natural competition and differences in national interests.” Attempts to reduce it to integrationist or geopolitical binaries, he warned, oversimplify a far more complex reality. Aben posed what he sees as the defining question: “To what extent are Central Asian states ready to define who they want to be by 2030 and what projects should shape their future?” Conscious coordination, he argued, is essential to resisting imposed external frameworks and maintaining control over internal agendas. A Strategic Message from the Caspian Policy Center A written message from Efgan Nifti, Director General of the Caspian Policy Center, was also presented. Though unable to attend, Nifti offered his perspective on the regional moment. He described 2025 as “a year of alignment and strategic rapprochement in the Trans-Caspian region,” highlighting Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia as key pillars of the emerging Middle Corridor. These states, he argued, “possess unique tools to strengthen economic and logistical connectivity between Europe and Asia.” Nifti also noted that the European Union stands to benefit significantly from the development of trans-Caspian routes, gaining more secure and diversified supply channels. Toward 2030: From Reaction to Institution-Building The roundtable demonstrated that Central Asia is increasingly moving beyond reactive politics. The region is beginning to see itself not as a subject of external agendas, but as a planner of its own future, one in which security, ecology, water, the economy, and diplomacy are part of a shared strategic framework. The challenge now is to transform that agency into durable institutions and implementable projects by 2030.
Tajik Border Troops Kill Three Afghans Suspected of Opium Smuggling
An armed clash occurred on the evening of January 29 along the Tajik-Afghan border, in Tajikistan's Shamsiddin Shokhin district, as local border forces intercepted an attempted drug smuggling operation. According to the Border Troops of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), the incident occurred around 7:30 p.m. in the area overseen by the Bahorak border post of military unit 0341. The GKNB reported that five Afghan nationals illegally crossed into Tajikistan. Once the group was located, border guards attempted to apprehend them. The intruders resisted arrest and opened fire in an attempt to retreat across the border. In the ensuing exchange, three were killed on the spot. The GKNB identified the deceased as Jovid Valadi Davlatmand and Rashid Valadi Davlatmand, residents of Kariai Vorich, and Sobir Valadi Zohir from Kariai Andjir, Takhar province. Two others managed to flee under the cover of darkness, retreating toward Afghan territory. The Tajik-Afghan border has seen a steady rise in armed incidents over the past year, driven largely by drug trafficking and the movement of armed groups across remote mountain crossings. Tajik authorities have repeatedly warned that narcotics smuggling networks operating out of northern Afghanistan remain a persistent security threat despite stepped-up patrols and surveillance. At the scene, border guards recovered three Kalashnikov rifles with four magazines, approximately 150 rounds of mixed-caliber ammunition, a large number of spent cartridges, and four bags containing 73 packages of narcotics, identified as hashish and opium. A boat, likely used for crossing the border, was also discovered. Officials say drug trafficking remains the primary driver of cross-border violence in the region. Afghanistan remains the world’s largest producer of opiates, and Tajikistan is a key transit route for narcotics moving north toward Central Asia and Russia, making the border a frequent flashpoint for armed encounters. The January 29 clash adds to a series of escalating incidents along the Tajik-Afghan border. Two weeks ago, on the night of January 18, Tajik security forces killed four armed individuals, whom they identified as members of a terrorist organization, in the same border zone. Border violence has intensified since last November. In two separate incidents, five Chinese citizens were killed in attacks originating from Afghan territory. In December, two Tajik border guards were killed during a confrontation with armed intruders in the Sarchashma border detachment's area of responsibility. Tajik security forces maintain that full control over the national border is being upheld, and have vowed to respond to all threats with force and immediacy.
Jackson-Vanik Repeal Gains Momentum as U.S. Courts Central Asia
For many years, U.S. relations with Central Asia were primarily political in nature, while economic ties developed slowly. However, in the past year, engagement has intensified significantly, with recent agreements suggesting the U.S. is poised to strengthen its economic presence in the region. A recent statement by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reinforces this outlook. Calls to repeal the outdated Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions have been framed by U.S. officials as a way to facilitate trade with Central Asia and strengthen U.S. energy security. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, enacted in 1974, restricts trade with countries that limit their citizens’ right to emigrate. At the time of its passage, Central Asia was still part of the Soviet Union. The amendment prohibits granting most-favored-nation (MFN) status, government loans, and credit guarantees to countries that violate their citizens’ right to emigrate, and allows for discriminatory tariffs and fees on imports from non-market economies. The amendment was repealed for Ukraine in 2006, and for Russia and Moldova in 2012. However, it remains in effect for several countries, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which continue to receive only temporary normal trade relations. In May 2023, a bill proposing the establishment of permanent trade relations with Kazakhstan, which included repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, was introduced in the U.S. Congress. A follow-up bill with similar provisions was submitted in February 2025. Then-nominee and now Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously noted that some policymakers viewed the amendment as a tool to extract concessions on human rights or to push Central Asian states toward the U.S. and away from Russia. However, he characterized such thinking as outdated, stating that, “In some cases, it is an absurd relic of the past.” Rubio has consistently supported expanding U.S. ties with Central Asia. Expanding Cooperation In 2025, relations between the U.S. and Central Asia deepened significantly, particularly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which are seen by analysts as the primary beneficiaries of this cooperation. In late October 2025, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and U.S. Special Representative for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. One of the year’s major events was the Central Asia-U.S. (C5+1) summit held in Washington on November 6. Leaders of the five Central Asian states met with President Donald Trump and members of the U.S. business community. Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev also met with U.S. Senator Steve Daines, co-chair of the Senate Central Asia Caucus, with both sides focusing heavily on economic cooperation. At the summit, Uzbekistan finalized major commercial agreements with U.S. companies, including aircraft orders by Uzbekistan Airways and deals spanning aviation, energy, and industrial cooperation. Kazakhstan signed agreements worth $17 billion with U.S. companies in sectors including aviation, mineral resources, and digital technologies. This included a deal granting American company Cove Kaz Capital Group a 70% stake in a joint venture to develop one of Kazakhstan’s largest tungsten deposits, an agreement valued at $1.1 billion. Further agreements were signed on critical minerals exploration. Kazakhstan and the U.S. committed to joint development of these resources, while Uzbekistan signed similar agreements with Denali Exploration and Re Element Technologies. Central Asia holds nearly 170 identified rare earth element occurrences. Experts argue the region’s largely untapped reserves could provide a viable alternative to China’s near-monopoly on the global supply chain. Strategic Balancing In November 2025, Kazakhstan announced its accession to the Abraham Accords. The Foreign Ministry stated that this move aligns with Kazakhstan’s strategic interests and commitment to a fair resolution of the Middle East conflict. The Abraham Accords, initially signed in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, with the U.S. acting as mediator. In January 2026, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan joined the Trump-initiated Board of Peace as founding signatories. According to the draft charter, extended or permanent membership may require significant financial contributions. An Economic Shift Toward Central Asia Central Asia was long a peripheral concern for U.S. foreign and economic policy. That began to change following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and amid rising concerns over China's control of rare earth markets. Kazakhstan has identified at least 15 rare earth deposits and occurrences, many of which are crucial for modern technologies. Kazakhstan hosts some of the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten deposits. The U.S. approach to regional cooperation has shifted significantly under President Trump, who has prioritized deal-making and economic interests. Still, the extent to which Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are prepared to help the U.S. compete with China remains unclear. Beijing remains Central Asia’s largest economic partner, even surpassing Russia. In 2025, trade between China and Central Asia totaled $106.3 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year. In contrast, U.S. trade with Kazakhstan, its top regional partner, amounted to around $5.5 billion in 2024, making Kazakhstan by far the United States’ largest trade partner in Central Asia. While recent agreements may improve this imbalance, closing the gap with China will be a long-term challenge. Nonetheless, repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment could mark a pivotal step. “From an economic point of view, the Jackson-Vanik amendment has not directly restricted U.S. trade with Central Asian countries in recent years," political commentator Janibek Suleev told The Times of Central Asia. "Most already enjoy normal trade relations.” However, Suleev noted that a full repeal of the amendment could offer several upgrades, most importantly, an improved investment climate. “This is particularly relevant for hydrocarbon projects, energy, transport infrastructure, and the processing of critical minerals. The regional economy could also access new markets beyond China and Russia,” he stated. Suleev argued that the political significance of any repeal outweighs the economic effect. “Central Asia has become a stage for strategic rivalry between China, Russia, and the West. A new model is now emerging. From recent developments, it appears Washington is aiming to expand bilateral ties without formal alliances,” he said, cautioning that a dramatic increase in U.S. investment should not be expected. “Still, the shift is clear. For most of the post-independence period, U.S. engagement focused heavily on promoting human rights and democratic norms," Suleev concluded. "Today, relations are taking a more pragmatic turn.”
More Doctors in Tajikistan, but Shortages Persist
Despite a modest increase in the number of healthcare professionals, Tajikistan continues to face a significant shortage of medical personnel, particularly in rural regions. Authorities are hoping to bridge the gap through the recruitment of medical school graduates and the redistribution of existing specialists. At a press conference on January 28, Minister of Health and Social Protection Jamoliddin Abdullozoda reported that as of early 2026, there were 22,419 doctors and 64,909 mid-level medical personnel working in the country’s healthcare system. These figures represent a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively. However, the staffing deficit remains unresolved. Tajikistan currently lacks 1,432 medical specialists. According to ministry estimates, the staffing rate for doctors stands at 94.3%, while for mid-level personnel it is 99.7%. These figures reflect slight improvements over the previous year, up 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively. The shortage is unevenly distributed across the country. In July 2025, the minister had noted a shortfall of 1,600 specialists for the first half of the year, indicating a reduction of nearly 170 positions in the latter half. Nevertheless, the situation remains critical in remote and underserved areas. Abdullozoda highlighted acute shortages in family medicine, as well as in the specialties of narcology, phthisiology, and radiology. In some regions, there is also a lack of gynecologists and surgeons. To address immediate needs, the ministry has compiled lists of district-level doctors who will be deployed to remote areas on a rotating basis. Authorities are also promoting personnel retraining to fill urgent gaps. “We are proposing that regions with shortages – for instance, if they lack radiologists – receive specialists from related fields such as surgery or traumatology. These doctors will undergo advanced training and then serve where they are most needed,” the minister explained. In the long term, the government plans to solve the shortage by mobilizing young professionals. According to Abdullozoda, if at least 50% of medical school graduates begin working in their field of study, the staffing issue could be resolved. The total number of students in medical universities reached 26,911 in 2026, an increase of 2,738 over the previous year. Enrolments in medical colleges also saw significant growth, with 80,000 students in the 2025–2026 academic year, up from 72,760 the year before.
Sunkar Podcast
Central Asia and the Troubled Southern Route
