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Joe Luc Barnes

Journalist

Joe Luc Barnes is a British journalist and author who focuses on the countries of the former Soviet Union. He has a Master’s degree in Russian and East European Politics from the University of Oxford. His book, “Farewell to Russia: A Journey Through The Former USSR”, will be published by Elliott and Thompson in Spring 2026.

Articles

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov China Bilateral Relations Gas Uranium Supply

L’Étranger: Paris Hosts the Reclusive Leader of Turkmenistan

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Turkmenistan’s longtime ruler, no longer holds the title of president; that has been passed, along with much of the public burden, to his son. He now reigns from the shadows as Hero-Arkadag (“Hero-Protector”), but he retains the ability to open doors. Nearly 14 years after his last official visit, Berdimuhamedov landed at Paris’ Orly airport last Monday. He was in France ostensibly to attend the Franco-Turkmen Economic Forum, but the visit also saw him ushered into the Élysée Palace for an audience with President Emmanuel Macron. Characteristically, his presence in Paris was kept quiet, receiving very little coverage even in the French media. “It was much less discussed than the near-concurrent visit of the Syrian leader, Ahmed Al-Charaa,” Michaël Levystone, co-founder of l'Observatoire de la Nouvelle Eurasie, a Paris think tank told The Times of Central Asia. “You have to understand that Turkmenistan is a country that is virtually unknown to the general public in France – and for good reason: it goes out of its way to remain extremely discreet!” Nevertheless, the visit marks a rare moment of high-level Western diplomacy with one of the world’s most opaque regimes, as well as an extremely uncommon public diplomatic appearance from Berdimuhamedov Senior since ceding formal power in 2022. The questions are why France? And why now? What Was Discussed The two readouts of the encounter were notably different. The Élysée offered a terse summary on its website, noting vaguely that the meeting “provided an opportunity to review the bilateral relationship between Turkmenistan and France as well as regional issues.” Macron then followed this up with an equally laconic post on X, noting that the two had “signed several agreements between Turkmenistan and France in the areas of energy transition, infrastructure, education, and culture. They demonstrate the strengthening of our cooperation. We also took stock of major regional and international crises, including Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.” On the other hand, the state-run news service Turkmenistan Today provided what can only be described as a detailed travelogue, noting the many dignitaries who had the pleasure of meeting the Hero-Arkadag on his whistle-stop tour of the City of Lights. According to the Turkmens, the visit yielded a flurry of agreements. A memorandum of understanding was inked between state-owned Türkmengaz and French tech firm Kayrros SAS, while France’s Thales Alenia Space Group signed a framework deal to provide Ashgabat with a second communications satellite. There were further promises of joint work on green energy, education, and archaeological research. A Foot in the Door One French company in particular is responsible for much of the engagement between the two countries. As part of his trip to Paris, Berdimuhamedov met with construction magnate Martin Bouygues, CEO of the firm that bears his family’s name. [caption id="attachment_31644" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The Presidential Palace and ministries complex, built by the French company Bouygues; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] “Bouygues has built numerous monumental buildings in Ashgabat since Turkmenistan's independence,” Levystone told...

6 days ago

Almaty Earthquake seismic risk Earthquake Myanmar Earthquake

Seismic Cities: Is Central Asia Prepared for a Major Earthquake?

The recent 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar, which claimed over 3,500 lives and caused structural failures more than 1,000 kilometers away in Bangkok, has once again highlighted the precariousness of life in seismically active regions. “Earthquakes happen on geological faults, which are often sited at the edges of mountain ranges.” Richard Walker, Professor of Tectonics at the University of Oxford told The Times of Central Asia. “Sadly, the edges of mountain ranges are often the best places to live, due to the presence of water and of land for farming.” All Central Asian capitals, except for Kazakhstan’s relocated capital Astana, are located on such terrain. This has historically made them vulnerable. The 1948 earthquake in Ashgabat destroyed almost the entire city; Tashkent suffered a similarly destructive event in 1966, and Almaty was wracked by twin blows in 1887 and 1911. Although no such catastrophic event has occurred in the last half century, the earth beneath the region continues to rumble restlessly. Two quakes in early 2024 left the residents of Almaty unnerved. Last week, on April 14, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Tajikistan caused the death of a young boy and damage to around thirty homes near the Chinese border. Though moderate, these tremors serve to remind residents of the active tectonics of the region and raise questions about the structural readiness of buildings and infrastructure should a stronger event occur. Botched Building After the 2023 earthquake on the Turkey-Syria border, which killed over 53,000 people in Turkey alone, authorities launched investigations into over a hundred individuals linked to the construction of buildings that did not withstand the tremors. Such stories were familiar to people who grew up in the Soviet Union. In the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia, tens of thousands died in Leninakan (now Gyumri). Many of the casualties were put down to the collapse of identikit 9-storey tower blocks built in the Brezhnev era. These were designed to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake; in the event, the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck Leninakan caused 72 out of 78 of these buildings to collapse. In a bitter irony, many older, pre-Soviet structures remained intact. One team of international inspectors blamed “very low construction standards and suspect joint details” in Leninakan for the scale of the disaster. Similar precast tower blocks to those that collapsed in Armenia can be seen across the former USSR. According to the Uzbek media, the Cabinet of Ministers estimated in 2023 that approximately 70% of private housing in the country failed to meet current earthquake resistance standards. “The 2023 earthquake in Turkey was a tragic reminder of the importance of strict compliance with building codes and continuous quality control of construction in seismic regions,” Daulet Sarsenbayev, director of the Kazakhstan’s National Scientific Center for Seismological Observations and Research, told TCA. “Such events provide valuable lessons for all countries, including Kazakhstan, in terms of the need to strengthen the regulatory framework, increase transparency in the construction industry, and invest in resilient infrastructure.” In response to the...

4 weeks ago

Russia China Export/Import Oil and Gas Natural gas Energy Security EU

Gas Crunch in Uzbekistan: Industry Falters as Demand Surges

In the first two months of 2025, Uzbekistan's natural gas production declined by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, continuing a troubling trend that has seen output fall from 61.59 billion cubic meters in 2018 to 44.59 billion cubic meters in 2024. This persistent decrease raises concerns about the nation’s energy security and economic stability. Once among Central Asia’s energy success stories, Uzbekistan became a net importer of natural gas in 2023, a symbolic turning point for a country whose identity was long intertwined with hydrocarbon abundance. The extent of the strain was demonstrated in December 2024, when gas stations around the country were forced to close during a cold snap as heating systems across the country kicked into action. This led drivers of methane-powered cars, which are common in the country given that it costs about $15 to fill the tank as opposed to $40-50 in a gasoline-powered vehicle, into a desperate hunt for places to fill up. Kilometer-long queues formed, and drivers ferociously competed to be first to the pump. Such scenes have become a familiar sight in the Uzbek winter as gas production has fallen. “Uzbekistan’s gas production is already quite mature,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy told The Times of Central Asia. “The existing fields are entering a phase of decline. The reserve-to-production ratio was around 18 years based on 2020 data, and the situation is unlikely to be much better now.” Put simply, the country is running out of easy gas. Despite repeated efforts to locate new reserves, particularly in the under-explored Ustyurt region, exploration has so far failed to yield significant breakthroughs. Even if discoveries are made, the timeline to bring new fields online would mean little impact before 2030, at best. In parallel, demand for gas has remained stubbornly high. Corbeau noted that “the country’s energy mix and electricity generation are very dependent on natural gas. And Uzbekistan is one of the countries with the lowest wholesale gas prices in the world.” Those prices have long distorted both domestic consumption and investor interest, keeping demand high while choking off potential upstream capital. [caption id="attachment_30630" align="aligncenter" width="1209"] Image: Wholesale Gas Price Survey 2024 Edition. International Gas Union. https://www.datocms-assets.com/[/caption] This sentiment is echoed by Irina Mironova, Senior Energy Analyst at the New Energy Advancement Hub. “Domestic production is declining faster than consumption,” she said, “and domestic gas pricing is not market-based. It remains below the price of imported gas, which undermines the investment appeal of upstream projects for foreign investors.” The government has undertaken some measures to control demand over the past year, raising the tariffs for electricity and gas by 52.5% and 71% respectively, hitting consumers in the pocket in an attempt to alter the wasteful use of scant resources. On the supply side, the government has declared a bold ambition to raise production to 62 billion cubic meters annually under its Uzbekistan–2030 development strategy, but observers remain skeptical. “They’ve tried to facilitate exploration, especially in the...

1 month ago

Higher Education Education China

Is Beijing’s Educational Diplomacy Turning the Dial on Central Asian Public Opinion?

OSH, KYRGYZSTAN – On the eastern bank of the Ak-Buura River, a mini-Chinatown is developing. At Osh’s old bus station, buses and taxis hawk their services to Kashgar, 300 kilometers away over the Pamir Mountains in China’s Xinjiang Province. Blue-plated SUVs stand by the roadside, sporting the 新 character that also symbolizes their origin in Xinjiang. At the Kelechek Bazaar, hordes of money changers shout the best rates for Dollars, Uzbek Som, and Chinese Yuan. Tucked away from the mêlée behind the Peking Hotel is the five-story Confucius Institute. “The Chinese language is in huge demand right now,” said Ali, a student who has moved to Osh from nearby Uzbekistan to study here. He believes the move will be good for his career. “It’s the best opportunity for anyone in this region,” he told The Times of Central Asia, before enthusing about his plans to study in China next year. [caption id="attachment_30054" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] The Confucius Institute in Osh, Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] “There’s a strong possibility that the younger generation will have a more positive view towards China,” Yunis Sharifli, a non-resident fellow at the China Global South Project told TCA. “This is good for China-Central Asia relations because we know that in the past, anti-China sentiments have hindered cooperation.” Chinese diplomats often refer to win-win diplomacy, where engagement between states can lead to positive outcomes for both sides. This is viewed with understandable cynicism by those who see Beijing’s diplomacy as entirely self-interested, but when it comes to education, even if we avoid the term win-win, the opportunities that it offers young Central Asians are hard to deny. In return, China hopes to create a network of influence and goodwill from people like Ali. Nevertheless, the jury is out on whether it is working. [caption id="attachment_30053" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] China-plated cars are an increasingly common sight in Kyrgyzstan; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Swelling numbers Given that numerous questions have been asked about the accuracy of China’s own population data, monitoring the number of foreign students in the country can be a fiendish task. The consensus is that the numbers are increasing. Chinese state media outlet Xinhua claimed that student numbers grew from 11,930 to 29,885 between 2010 and 2018, and have recovered since the pandemic. One recent report put the number of Kazakh students alone at “approaching 20,000”. These numbers are unlikely to dethrone Russia as the top destination for Central Asian students any time soon. Moscow claimed in 2023 that 168,000 Central Asians were studying in the country, with around a third of them being funded by the Russian government. However, Sharifli believes that Russia’s luster is beginning to wane. “Moscow State University has historically been very attractive for Central Asian people, particularly in the social science or the technical fields,” said Sharifli. “But since the war [in Ukraine] began there has been a lot of discrimination against Central Asians in Russia.” This was demonstrated in a recent account given to The Times of Central Asia by...

2 months ago

Industrial Production Automobile Industry Export/Import China

Chevrolet vs China: The Battle for the Future of Uzbekistan’s Auto Industry

ANDIJAN -- Spend long enough in Uzbekistan and you become adept at reading numberplates. While in Paris or Los Angeles, you will generally identify your taxi by its color and its manufacturer; try doing that in Uzbekistan, and you run into a problem: for the past two decades or so, the color and manufacturer have invariably been White and Chevrolet. “Yep, it’s true,” laughed Alisher, as I remarked on this when he collected me from Andijan train station. “90% of the cars are Chevrolets, and 80% of them are white.” But this era of monochrome monopoly may be coming to an end. With the electric vehicle (EV) revolution sweeping the world, Chinese companies have Chevrolet’s kingdom in their sights. A Levy for the Chevy Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s first president, was alone among the leaders of former Soviet republics in being a trained economist. Schooled in the planned economy, his powerful state acquired control over key industries and sought to make Uzbekistan self-reliant. It did a deal with South Korean conglomerate Daewoo to open its first factory in Uzbekistan in 1996, while slapping huge tariffs on all cars coming into the country from abroad. Daewoo, caught up in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998, sold its auto arm to General Motors in 2002. The Detroit giant saw little wrong with the deal they had inherited in Uzbekistan, and so continued to produce Daewoo cars but now under their Chevrolet branding. The partnership transformed streets all across the country, with practically the only other cars to be seen on the roads being old Ladas from the Soviet period. [caption id="attachment_29761" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] A Kia hoarding above, naught but Chevrolet's below; image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] This lack of choice nevertheless provided jobs and an industrial base for the country’s auto industry. “I am very proud that Uzbekistan has built such an industry,” said Aziz Shukurov, CEO of A Group, a chain of car dealerships and owner of the nation’s largest network of service stations. “Today, more than one hundred companies operate in the local automotive industry producing parts for the vehicles; a lot of technology has been transferred over the years with tens of thousands of people employed. To my mind, a strong local automotive industry is a substantial asset for any country.” Meeting Mr. Market After Karimov died in 2016, his successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, began to embrace the free market. Close to a decade later, Tashkent throughfares are home to ever more foreign brands. Most prominent are South Korea’s Kia and Hyundai and China’s BYD and Changan. “The new president started opening up the country from 2017, giving access to foreign institutions and companies to the Uzbekistan market,” said Farkhodjon Israilov, an expert who specializes in attracting foreign investment into the country. In 2019, the government removed import duties and excise taxes on EVs. Given the growing popularity of EVs since then, the state-owned UzAuto Motors partnered with BYD to open one of only two operational production facilities outside China – the...

2 months ago