Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economy

Kazakhstan to Slash Imports with $2.6 Billion Domestic Output Plan

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Industry and Construction (MIC) has announced plans to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign imports by replacing goods worth KZT1.4 trillion ($2.6 billion) with domestically produced alternatives by 2025. This ambitious goal is intended to be achieved through the launch of new production facilities in the automotive and household appliances sectors. According to the MIC's Industry Committee, 190 investment projects are slated for implementation in 2025, creating over 20,000 permanent jobs for Kazakhstani workers. Once fully operational, these projects are expected to generate an output of KZT2.2 trillion ($4.1 billion), with KZT0.8 trillion ($1.5 billion) designated for export. The import substitution effort is forecasted to account for KZT1.4 trillion ($2.6 billion) of this total output. “This initiative will bolster domestic production, reduce dependence on imports, and enhance the competitiveness of Kazakhstan's national economy,” stated the committee. Trade Trends and Key Import Partners Kazakhstan's import volume for January - October 2024 was $48.4 billion, as reported by the Bureau of National Statistics. During this period, imports declined by 3.3% compared to the same timeframe in 2023. The country’s key import partners include: Russia: 29.7% of total imports China: 25.5% Germany: 4.9% USA: 3.9% France: 3.2% Republic of Korea: 3.1% The largest import categories in 2024 were cars (4.1%), aircraft (3%), medicines (2.9%), cell phones (2.7%), and motor vehicle bodies (2.1%). Significant Projects on the Horizon To address these import trends, major projects in the automotive, household appliances, and metallurgy sectors are planned for 2025. These include: Almaty: Construction of a multi-brand plant by Astana Motors to produce Chinese passenger cars. The facility will have an annual production capacity of 90,000 vehicles. Kostanay Region: Establishment of the KIA Qazaqstan plant, which will produce 70,000 vehicles annually of the Korean brand. Combined, these automotive projects will create 3,700 jobs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is expected to record high sales of passenger cars by the end of 2024, with approximately 70% of vehicles purchased being domestically produced. Regional Investment Distribution The Turkestan region and Almaty City lead in the number of new investment projects, with 15 and 14 initiatives, respectively. The Kostanay and Karaganda regions also stand out, particularly Karaganda, which is set to receive KZT256 billion ($486 million) for ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy projects. Overall, Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector is projected to attract KZT1.2 trillion (nearly $2.3 billion) in investments in 2025, further solidifying the country’s industrial base and economic resilience.

Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakh Blogger, Jailed After Filming at Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Site, is Freed

A Kazakh blogger, who was sentenced to 10 days in prison after using a drone to film wreckage, emergency responders and bodies covered with tarps at the site of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash in Kazakhstan, has been released. Azamat Sarsenbayev was convicted of disobeying a police order not to film and photograph at the Dec. 25 crash in a quickly held, late-night trial in a court in Fort-Shevchenko, more than 100 kilometers from Aktau, the Caspian Sea city where the plane hit the ground and burst into flames, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. He had disputed the charge, arguing that there were procedural violations and that, by law, he should have received a fine instead of a prison sentence. [caption id="attachment_27275" align="aligncenter" width="766"] Footage from the crash site; Azamat Sarsenbayev[/caption] The prosecution of Sarsenbayev partly shows the tension between periodic government efforts to monitor and restrict information, not just in Kazakhstan but also in other Central Asian countries, and the efforts of some bloggers, journalists and others to widen the scope for reporting, often at risk of prosecution and jail time. Regional governments sometimes warn of the threat of provocateurs spreading disinformation, though Sarsenbayev’s actions on the day of the crash appeared to be more in line with reporting the facts of a major international disaster. Drones enhance the reporting ability of some journalists, though there can be accompanying ethical, legal and security concerns about their use. The Embraer 190 plane crash is particularly sensitive because it involves criminal investigators and a delicate international backdrop. Azerbaijan says Russian ground fire hit the plane as it was trying to land at its planned destination in Russia-controlled Chechnya. Russia has apologized without directly confirming the Azerbaijani account. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation and preliminary findings are expected to be released later in January. On social media posts this weekend, Sarsenbayev provided details about his testimony to the judge during his trial, saying he had received calls from international news organizations and other outlets asking for help in covering the crash. He said he reached the scene at around 11 a.m. and deployed his drone about one kilometer away, without having any contact with police, and then approached a cordoned-off area to interview a representative from the Ministry of Emergency Situations who was giving official comments. Sarsenbayev said he told the judge that the media organizations that had contacted him did so “for paid collaboration to capture authentic, exclusive materials for their platforms” and that he had not taken any “explicit” images of crash victims, since their bodies were covered. “If there had been even the slightest hint of a breach of ´ethics´ or ´moral norms´ in my photographs, platforms like Instagram would have automatically blocked my posts, let alone news outlets that published my images. In that case, should we hold everyone accountable for photographing or filming incidents like car accidents or other similar events?” Sarsenbayev said he told the judge. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has promised more...

Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakhstan Crash: In Air and on Ground, Some Did What They Could

When an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan on Dec. 25, Junior Sgt. Nurlan Botagarin reacted quickly. He raced to the wreckage in his car and frantically pushed past debris into the fuselage to help survivors. “The rear part of the plane had overturned, and the people inside were tangled together, unable to get out,” the Kazakh military serviceman said. “At that moment, I broke through the obstructing parts and equipment of the plane and entered inside. I started rescuing the passengers.” Was Botagarin a hero for what he did, possibly risking his own life in the event of an additional explosion and fire while he was scrambling through the wreckage of Flight J2-8243? Some people say yes. He doesn’t think so. Heroes or not, some people showed courage and compassion on the day of the Embraer 190 plane crash that killed 38 people and left 29 survivors in Aktau, Kazakhstan, marking a bright spot in the fog of grief and international intrigue over how the disaster unfolded. Azerbaijan says the plane was accidentally hit by Russian ground fire before its planned landing in Russia-controlled Chechnya; President Vladimir Putin of Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, has apologized without confirming Azerbaijan’s account. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation. The human loss in such a calamity and the alleged responsibility of any perpetrators can overshadow the exemplary conduct of some of those involved in the moment. But here are some of the people who did what they could and will be remembered for it: THE FLIGHT CREW: Capt. Igor Kshnyakin, co-pilot Aleksandr Kalyaninov and flight attendant Hokuma Aliyeva died in the crash. Aviation analysts say the pilots’ struggle to steer the badly damaged aircraft hundreds of kilometers across the Caspian Sea to a landing on flat terrain near Aktau airport was critical to the survival of some of those aboard as well as the likelihood that what exactly happened will be learned in the investigation. Kazakhstan sent the plane’s flight recorders to Brazil, where Embraer aircraft are made, for assessment. The cockpit voice recordings, if they are released, will reveal more to the world about the desperate efforts of the pilots to control the plane and get their passengers to safety. “This particular aircraft is equipped with a recorder that captures two hours of crew and aircraft activity. The investigation will have a nearly complete picture of events,” said Talgat Lastaev, Kazakhstan’s vice transport minister. He was quoted by the Kazinform news agency. At a ceremony in Baku, the three crewmembers who died were awarded with the title "National Hero of Azerbaijan." Two surviving flight attendants, Zulfugar Asadov and Aydan Rahimli, also received honors. “I must specifically acknowledge the female crew members. They themselves were in a state of stress, but look how humanely they acted to calm the passengers and prevent chaos inside the plane,” Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said. In a video taken by a passenger, a flight attendant is heard trying to assure people on the plane...

Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack

Istanbul Prosecutors Seek Lengthy Sentences for Suspects in Crocus City Attack

The Istanbul Prosecutor’s Office has demanded prison sentences ranging from 7.5 to 15 years for five Central Asians accused of involvement in last spring's terrorist attack on the Crocus City concert hall in Moscow. This information was reported by the Anadolu news agency. The detainees - identified as Hafizjon Usmanov, Muteullo Asoyev, Rahmatullo Solikov, Muhammadrahim Faizov, and Hamza Muhammed - are accused of providing instructions and logistical support to the perpetrators of the attack. They allegedly promised 800,000 rubles (approximately $7,240) and new identity documents in exchange for carrying out the attack. According to Anadolu, the suspects were in contact with Shamsiddin Fariduni and Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, who are believed to have been directly involved in the attack. One of the detainees reportedly shared an apartment in Istanbul’s Avcılar district with Fariduni. Evidence presented by prosecutors includes correspondence between one of the suspects and a perpetrator. In the messages, the suspect proposed planting a bomb at the Vegas shopping center, promising an advance payment of 100,000 rubles and an additional 700,000 rubles upon completion of the act. The terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall in March last year claimed the lives of 144 people and injured 551 others. The main suspects in the case are citizens of Tajikistan, with reports indicating that 12 individuals have been arrested in connection with the attack. The Istanbul investigation sheds further light on the broader network behind the attack, pointing to an international web of operatives and support personnel.

Tokayev

Tokayev on Kazakhstan’s Future: Reforms, Diplomacy, and Global Leadership

In an interview with the Kazakh newspaper Ana Tili, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev discussed pressing domestic and international policy issues shaping Kazakhstan's development. Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s role as a stabilizing force in the international arena during a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. “My main goal is to strengthen the economic potential, sovereignty, and international position of our state. From the very beginning of my presidency, I have taken full responsibility for the decisions I make and their consequences. I cannot and do not want to work any other way,” Tokayev stated. [caption id="attachment_27253" align="aligncenter" width="750"] Image: Akorda[/caption] Reflecting on Qantar - Building a Just Kazakhstan Tokayev addressed the January 2022 unrest - Qantar - describing the upheaval as a consequence of deep-rooted social injustice and political stagnation. “Three years after Qantar, most of our citizens understand that the unprecedented unrest was driven by social inequality, political stagnation, and the self-serving ambitions of the conspirators,” Tokayev said, warning against the spread of misinformation surrounding the events and emphasized that decisive action was necessary to preserve Kazakhstan’s sovereignty. Tokayev reiterated his commitment to creating a fairer Kazakhstan where all citizens are equal before the law. “Justice is not universal equalization. My course on the fair distribution of national wealth does not mean total expropriation or redistribution of property and assets. Such a policy would lead to degradation and chaos. Instead, we aim to eliminate illegal privileges and return unlawfully acquired assets to the state as part of our modernization strategy,” the president said. Relations with Nazarbayev While acknowledging the achievements of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president, Tokayev also critiqued certain aspects of his leadership. “After resigning but remaining chairman of the Security Council, he often held meetings with key officials, creating confusion and sparking rumors of dual power. This situation led some to claim that the Elbasy Institute should supersede presidential authority,” Tokayev noted. He further revealed that Nazarbayev had considered returning to power in 2021, citing his strong ties to Moscow. Advancing Political Reforms and International Relations Tokayev pointed to the successful implementation of key political reforms, emphasizing greater openness and the activation of public participation. “The concept of ‘Strong President, Influential Parliament, Accountable Government’ best suits Kazakhstan’s political system. However, achieving this fully requires sustained effort,” Tokayev explained, reaffirming his belief that a presidential system remains the optimal governance model for Kazakhstan. Tokayev also elaborated on relations with major powers, including Russia, China, and the United States, underscoring the importance of Kazakhstan’s partnership with Russia, highlighting their shared border and deep economic ties. “President Putin is an experienced statesman who values Kazakhstan’s strategic importance as Central Asia’s largest economy. Our constant communication fosters stability in Eurasia,” Tokayev said. He described Kazakhstan’s cooperation with China as dynamic and multifaceted, elevating their relationship to the level of an "eternal strategic partnership." Tokayev also mentioned his conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, noting Trump’s positive view of Kazakhstan as a strategic partner. Nuclear Power Plans, Middle Powers and Global Stability On nuclear energy, Tokayev...

Economy

Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices. While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels. Global Economic Highlights In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively. Central Asia Outlook In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.