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Foreign Affairs

Turkmenistan Steps into the Spotlight with Regional Diplomacy and Economic Reforms

Long known for its isolationist policies, Turkmenistan is gradually opening up to the international community through significant economic and diplomatic initiatives. Recent efforts include diversifying its natural gas exports, engaging in regional infrastructure projects such as the TAPI gas pipeline, and expanding trade partnerships. Additionally, the government has taken steps toward modernization and economic reforms to attract foreign investment, signaling a shift towards enhanced regional cooperation and global integration. This week, these initiatives gathered pace, as Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, continued his diplomatic tour of Central Asia with official visits to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Berdimuhamedov's meetings focused on strengthening strategic partnerships, expanding trade and economic cooperation, and deepening cultural dialogue. Visit to Kazakhstan: Cultural Diplomacy and Strategic Cooperation On April 21, Berdimuhamedov arrived in the city of Turkestan, where he was welcomed by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The leaders held an informal meeting and visited key cultural and infrastructure sites, including the mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yassawi, a UNESCO World Heritage Site considered a spiritual center of the Turkic world. The tour also included the “Ethnoaul” ethnographic complex, the Turkistan Visit Centre, and an inspection of ongoing archaeological and restoration work at the ancient settlement of Kultobe. At the SPK Turkistan industrial park, they reviewed six investment projects worth a total of 36.5 billion tenge, encompassing production from tractors to medical equipment, with future expansion plans involving 112 facilities. During the meeting, Tokayev highlighted growing bilateral ties and discussed joint initiatives in energy, transport, and digitalization. Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s interest in participating in the development of Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh gas field and regional infrastructure projects, including the Turgundi-Herat-Kandahar-Spin Buldak railway and various transit highways connecting the two nations. Tokayev also offered support in digital governance and IT training, aligning with broader goals of regional modernization. Speaking to Toppress.kz, political analyst Tair Nigmanov interpreted Berdimuhamedov’s regional tour as a sign of Turkmenistan’s gradual emergence from diplomatic isolation. Nigmanov emphasized the symbolic significance of Turkestan, which Kazakhstan is positioning as a regional diplomatic hub for the Turkic world. Visit to Kyrgyzstan: Tradition and Informal Diplomacy On April 22, Berdimuhamedov arrived in Kyrgyzstan, where he was met at Issyk-Kul Airport by President Sadyr Japarov, who personally drove his guest along the visit route, a gesture that drew public attention. The leaders toured the Rukh-Ordo cultural center in Cholpon-Ata, and held informal discussions. During the visit, Japarov gifted a komuz, a traditional Kyrgyz string instrument, and invited Berdimuhamedov to sample the national kuurma tea. Talks on April 23 focused on enhancing bilateral relations. President Japarov praised the “centuries-old friendship” between the two nations and proposed establishing a Kyrgyz-Turkmen Development Fund, modeled on similar funds with Russia, Hungary, and Uzbekistan. Berdimuhamedov responded positively, expressing a desire to expand cooperation in trade, energy, education, and cultural exchange. Next Stop: Uzbekistan Berdimuhamedov is scheduled to visit Uzbekistan on April 23-24 at the invitation of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The agenda includes political, economic, and transportation cooperation, continuing the regional outreach and reinforcing Turkmenistan’s strategic...

Earthquake

Seismic Cities: Is Central Asia Prepared for a Major Earthquake?

The recent 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar, which claimed over 3,500 lives and caused structural failures more than 1,000 kilometers away in Bangkok, has once again highlighted the precariousness of life in seismically active regions. “Earthquakes happen on geological faults, which are often sited at the edges of mountain ranges.” Richard Walker, Professor of Tectonics at the University of Oxford told The Times of Central Asia. “Sadly, the edges of mountain ranges are often the best places to live, due to the presence of water and of land for farming.” All Central Asian capitals, except for Kazakhstan’s relocated capital Astana, are located on such terrain. This has historically made them vulnerable. The 1948 earthquake in Ashgabat destroyed almost the entire city; Tashkent suffered a similarly destructive event in 1966, and Almaty was wracked by twin blows in 1887 and 1911. Although no such catastrophic event has occurred in the last half century, the earth beneath the region continues to rumble restlessly. Two quakes in early 2024 left the residents of Almaty unnerved. Last week, on April 14, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Tajikistan caused the death of a young boy and damage to around thirty homes near the Chinese border. Though moderate, these tremors serve to remind residents of the active tectonics of the region and raise questions about the structural readiness of buildings and infrastructure should a stronger event occur. Botched Building After the 2023 earthquake on the Turkey-Syria border, which killed over 53,000 people in Turkey alone, authorities launched investigations into over a hundred individuals linked to the construction of buildings that did not withstand the tremors. Such stories were familiar to people who grew up in the Soviet Union. In the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia, tens of thousands died in Leninakan (now Gyumri). Many of the casualties were put down to the collapse of identikit 9-storey tower blocks built in the Brezhnev era. These were designed to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake; in the event, the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck Leninakan caused 72 out of 78 of these buildings to collapse. In a bitter irony, many older, pre-Soviet structures remained intact. One team of international inspectors blamed “very low construction standards and suspect joint details” in Leninakan for the scale of the disaster. Similar precast tower blocks to those that collapsed in Armenia can be seen across the former USSR. According to the Uzbek media, the Cabinet of Ministers estimated in 2023 that approximately 70% of private housing in the country failed to meet current earthquake resistance standards. “The 2023 earthquake in Turkey was a tragic reminder of the importance of strict compliance with building codes and continuous quality control of construction in seismic regions,” Daulet Sarsenbayev, director of the Kazakhstan’s National Scientific Center for Seismological Observations and Research, told TCA. “Such events provide valuable lessons for all countries, including Kazakhstan, in terms of the need to strengthen the regulatory framework, increase transparency in the construction industry, and invest in resilient infrastructure.” In response to the...

Oil and Gas

Tokayev Moves to Reclaim Kazakhstan’s Energy Future

In January 2025, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the government to seek revisions to the nation’s production-sharing agreements (PSAs). The first known result of that directive has now surfaced, with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) publishing a report regarding a confidential interim ruling in an arbitration case. According to this information, Kazakhstan is pursuing a $160 billion claim against the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), the consortium managing the Kashagan oil field. The ruling states that after royalty payments, NCOC receives 98% of remaining revenue from Kashagan’s output. The document concerns a narrower environmental dispute, but the 98% figure alters the landscape. The contract in question dates to the 1990s, when Kazakhstan — newly independent, fiscally constrained, and eager for technical expertise — entered into deals that prioritized attracting investment over securing long-term national benefit. The government now argues that those historical constraints no longer apply, while the revenue-sharing terms remain effectively frozen in place. Rather than seek unilateral redress or executive override, Tokayev’s administration has turned to arbitration. The venue, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, and the legal framing mark a continuation of Kazakhstan’s methodical approach to reasserting national interests in its domestic political economy. This latest move cannot be understood as an isolated decision. It reflects a trajectory of state behavior extending back three decades. In the early 1990s, when Chevron’s bid for Tengiz was effectively imposed as a condition for U.S. bilateral assistance, Kazakhstan lacked both the leverage and the institutional competence to resist — a dynamic I analyzed in detail at the time. Chevron’s refusal to direct more than a token amount of investment to social infrastructure nearly sank the agreement. A similar dynamic surrounded the financing and structuring of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Kazakhstan’s attempts to assert greater influence were often thwarted, not least by the asymmetry of legal expertise and negotiating experience. That imbalance began to shift by the early 2000s. The creation of KazMunaiGas (KMG) in 2002 consolidated the state's participation in the energy sector and enabled its strategic action to become more coordinated. By 2003, Kazakhstan was insisting on conformity with international accounting standards at Tengiz, not only to ensure transparency but also to block attempts by foreign operators to defer investment obligations. Environmental enforcement became more assertive as well, with fines imposed on Tengizchevroil for massive open-air sulfur storage, a practice that had long provoked public concern. The Kashagan field, discovered in the late 1990s and described as the largest oil find since Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay in 1968, became the focal point of these tensions. From the outset, Kazakhstan’s participation in the consortium was marginal. A restructuring of the consortium in the early 2000s brought KMG back in, but cost overruns and delays continued. By 2007, the government had suspended work at Kashagan, citing both ecological violations and spiraling expenditures, in a sequence of events I traced contemporaneously during the legislative and consortium restructuring that followed. Amendments to the Law on the Subsurface followed, granting...

Assassination Attempt

Deputy Akim of Shymkent Shot and Wounded

On the evening of April 21, Ruslan Berdenov, Deputy Akim of Shymkent, was shot and wounded in an apparent assassination attempt near the city hall. The incident occurred under unclear circumstances and has sparked widespread public attention and speculation. Preliminary reports indicate that Berdenov was hit three times by a Saiga-12 shotgun. The suspect, who was detained at the scene, was confronted by Berdenov’s driver, who reportedly accelerated the vehicle to subdue the attacker. “The assailant waited near the Akimat and shot at close range when the official exited the building. The driver intervened by striking the shooter with the car,” journalist Mikhail Kozachkov reported on Telegram. Suspect Identified as State Employee According to the Telegram channel Letters to the President, the suspect has been identified as 30-year-old Zhienbai Yernar Zhienbayuly, a specialist at Turgyn Shymkent LLP, which operates under the Akimat. He is reported to be a subordinate of Berdenov. A criminal investigation has been launched under charges of attempted murder. Berdenov sustained gunshot wounds to his right thigh and shoulder. The city’s health department stated that as of the morning of April 22, he had regained consciousness and was in a stable but serious condition. Speculation Over Motives Following the attack, various unverified theories were circulating on social media, with one suggesting the motive was personal jealousy. However, this was publicly denied by Berdenov's business partner, Beibit Alibekov, who described the rumors as fabrications. Alibekov suggested instead that the incident may be linked to Berdenov’s recent anti-corruption efforts in the construction sector. The Akimat also rejected claims that the suspect's wife had been harassed by Berdenov, stating that such allegations “do not correspond to reality.” The Respublica Party, of which Berdenov is a member, urged caution, stating that “any premature assessments can be regarded as interference in the investigation.” The party emphasized its stance that “violence in any form is unacceptable.” Law enforcement agencies have confirmed that the investigation is ongoing and all circumstances surrounding the attack are being examined. Ruslan Berdenov was appointed Deputy Akim of Shymkent in February 2025. Before that, he served as a deputy in the Mazhilis, the lower house of Kazakhstan’s Parliament, where he worked on the Finance and Budget Committee. A native of Shymkent, Berdenov is 39 years old and fluent in Kazakh, Russian, English, Turkish, and Azeri.

TCA Interviews

Dr. Atakan Varol: Kazakhstan Should Play an Active Role in Shaping the Future of AI

The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dr. Hussein Atakan Varol, a professor of robotics and PhD in electrical engineering, who serves as General Director of the Institute of Smart Systems and Artificial Intelligence (ISSAI) at Nazarbayev University (NU). Dr. Varol discusses ISSAI’s research initiatives, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in Kazakhstan, and the country's potential to lead in AI innovation. ISSAI’s Mission and Collaborations TCA: What is the mission of ISSAI, and what are its key focus areas? Varol: At ISSAI, our mission is to conduct cutting-edge AI research and develop practical, impactful solutions that benefit Kazakhstan and the broader global community. We specialize in large-scale generative AI models, speech recognition, computer vision, and AI infrastructure. Our goal is to establish sovereign AI capabilities in Kazakhstan, minimizing dependence on external technologies while maintaining a strong ethical foundation. All our research adheres to principles of "AI for Good" and "AI for Kazakhstan," ensuring that developments remain responsible and socially beneficial. TCA: How does ISSAI collaborate with the public sector, private companies, and international organizations? Varol: We actively engage with government agencies, local businesses, and global AI research institutions. Our partnerships focus on AI model development, data collection, and deploying AI-driven solutions. Access to computational resources remains a key challenge, and we collaborate strategically to secure the infrastructure needed to scale AI projects in Kazakhstan. Notable Projects and Local Impact TCA: What are some of ISSAI’s most promising current developments? Varol: A highlight is SoyleApp, which provides real-time speech recognition, text-to-speech, and multilingual translation. It has vast potential in education, public services, and cross-language communication. We’ve also developed the Mangitas 01 Inference Server, a vital step for Kazakhstan’s AI ecosystem. In the absence of AI supercomputers, we built Mangitas 01 using commercial off-the-shelf components, allowing local deployment of AI models with enhanced data security. We’re now working on expanding this line to support our Oylan language-vision model, paving the way for more advanced multimodal AI applications. TCA: Have ISSAI’s solutions been successfully implemented in Kazakhstan? Varol: Yes. SoyleApp is being integrated into governmental and enterprise systems to improve accessibility for Kazakh-speaking users. Mangitas 01 serves as a prototype for local AI infrastructure, enabling organizations to operate AI systems within Kazakhstan, enhancing both data protection and performance. TCA: How does the local context influence your AI development? Varol: Kazakhstan’s linguistic and cultural diversity demands AI systems capable of understanding and producing content in Kazakh, Russian, and other regional languages. We've created tailored datasets and models to meet these needs. Moreover, the country's limited AI infrastructure has led us to focus on efficient and scalable solutions like Mangitas 01. [caption id="attachment_31080" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Dr. Atakan Varol; image: NU.edu[/caption] The Future of AI and Kazakhstan’s Role TCA: How do you see AI evolving over the next 5-10 years? Varol: The next leap is toward multimodal and sparse generative models that handle text, images, and audio simultaneously. With proper investment, Kazakhstan can contribute meaningfully to this frontier. We’re also exploring edge AI, which enables...

Family

Half of Marriages in Kazakhstan End in Divorce; Deputies Propose State Alimony Fund

Nearly half of all marriages in Kazakhstan ended in divorce by the close of 2024, prompting renewed calls for the establishment of a state-backed alimony fund. Justice Minister Yerlan Sarsembayev addressed the issue during a recent speech to members of Parliament, citing the breakdown of family values and widespread failure to support children as key social concerns. “Unwillingness to support their children and evasion from paying alimony are consequences of the crisis in family and marital relations,” Sarsembayev said. “The values that were once inherent to our people are being lost, unfortunately. As a result, families suffer and, above all, the children.” As of early 2024, Kazakhstan recorded over 283,000 enforcement orders related to child support payments, with around 12,000 cases, roughly 4%, categorized as problematic. The main obstacles to enforcement, according to Sarsembayev, include lack of stable income, absence of property, and in some cases, the deliberate concealment of earnings by one parent. To address the issue, the state has attempted to find employment for debtors without permanent income. However, more severe measures have also been implemented: in 2024, 4,642 individuals were held administratively liable, while 461 cases were brought to court under Article 139 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Of these, 391 resulted in convictions. “Nevertheless, we believe that these punitive measures alone cannot fully resolve the issue of non-payment,” Sarsembayev added. “If a person does not understand the value of family and responsibility toward their children, no punishment will help.” Proposal for a State Alimony Fund During the same government session, Mazhilis deputy Magerram Magerramov once again proposed the creation of a state alimony fund to address chronic payment failures. The country’s total child support arrears now exceed 16 billion tenge (approximately $30.5 million), and the amount continues to grow. Magerramov’s proposal has been floated before but failed to gain traction. The Ministry of Justice previously objected to the idea, citing concerns about the financial burden on the state and the risk of encouraging dependency. “This idea has not been supported in the past because it would place a strain on the national budget,” Sarsembayev explained. “Moreover, establishing such a fund could promote a sense of dependency among those obliged to pay alimony, who might assume the state will cover their obligations.” As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, a survey conducted last year revealed that 78% of young Kazakhs believe in the importance of officially registering a marriage, a statistic that reflects a continuing societal emphasis on formal family structures despite rising divorce rates.