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Criminal Responsibility

Mercenary Spies Unmasked: Guilty Verdict Exposes Global Disinformation and Sabotage Network

A spy cell in the UK, including five Bulgarian nationals, targeted multiple individuals and locations over nearly three years, according to court documents at The Old Bailey, officially known as the Central Criminal Court of England and Wales. The court case, which has played out over fourteen weeks, tells the story of a rogue group of six individuals aiming to leverage statecraft, intelligence, and a willingness to be ruthless for monetary gain. The trial has revealed that the defendants worked under the direction of Jan Marsalek, an Austrian national described by prosecutors as a Russian agent involved in espionage activities. Two men have already pleaded guilty to their role in the spy ring, Orlin Roussev, 46, and Bizer Dzhambazov, 43, whilst the whereabouts of Marsalek remain unknown. According to the prosecution, the defendants stood accused of "monetizing a gap in the market," engaging in what was described as "high-level espionage with very high stakes." A money flowchart presented as evidence revealed that approximately €380,000 had been transferred between three of the suspects, further supporting the allegations. The case has offered a window into the dark world of commercialized clandestine services where criminal organizations offer espionage, psyops, misinformation, assassinations, and other illegal activities for a fee. As for the outcome of the trial against the remaining three defendants, Katrin Ivanova, 33, Vanya Gaberova, 30, and Tihomir Ivanchev 39, following 32 hours of deliberation, the jury returned a guilty verdict on all three of being involved in a conspiracy, contrary to section 1 of the Criminal Law Act 1977, to commit an offence under section 1 of the Official Secrets Act 1911. Only Ivanchev was present in court, whilst Ivanova and Gaberova joined by video-link from HMP Bronzefield. Their crimes carry a maximum sentence of 14 years imprisonment. Court testimony, evidence documents as well as volumes of Telegram and WeChat messages, reviewed by The Times of Central Asia reveal a chilling account of the sinister services these dark mercenaries plotted, offered, and in some cases, partially executed. The Times of Central Asia is finalizing its review of court documents and conducting follow-ups with sources to provide a comprehensive analysis and perspective on this case. Please check back for further insights.

International Women's Day

How Women in Central Asia Celebrate International Women’s Day

March 8, International Women’s Day, holds a special place in Central Asia. Over the years, the holiday has evolved from its Soviet-era roots into a modern celebration that blends tradition with contemporary interpretations. The Soviet Past: March 8 as a Day for Working Women During the Soviet Union, March 8 was more than a celebration of spring and femininity, it symbolized the struggle for women’s rights and equality. The day honored working women, with official ceremonies highlighting their achievements. State-run enterprises and organizations staged formal events and presented flowers and gifts to female employees, and media outlets published articles about the country’s outstanding women. The Transition Period: The 1990s Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries began redefining their identities, which was reflected in how they marked March 8. The holiday took on a more personal and familial character, with less ideological emphasis. While state celebrations continued, they became more subdued. Men still gifted flowers and presents to women, but the political significance of the day gradually faded into the background. Modern Celebrations: Balancing Tradition and New Trends Today, March 8 in Central Asia is primarily a day to recognize women’s contributions and express gratitude. The holiday remains widely celebrated across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, though each country has developed its distinct traditions. Kazakhstan: Major cities host flash mobs, charity events, and cultural programs. In recent years, feminist activism has gained momentum, with some using the holiday to highlight gender inequality. “For me, March 8 is not just about receiving flowers, it’s a reminder that equality is not a privilege but a necessity,” Ainur, 24, from Almaty told TCA. Uzbekistan: The holiday remains warm and family-oriented. Women receive flowers, sweets, and gifts from colleagues and relatives, while government agencies organize concerts and celebrations. “My friends and I always celebrate March 8. It’s wonderful to receive gifts from my brothers, friends, and husband, but I wish there was more year-round appreciation for women,” Madina, 27, from Tashkent told TCA. Kyrgyzstan: Alongside traditional celebrations, women's organizations and activists hold marches and discussions on gender rights, reflecting a shift toward reinterpreting the holiday. “I participate in the women’s rights march every year because this day is not just about flowers; it’s about our opportunities and freedoms,” Gulzat, 23, from Bishkek told TCA. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan: March 8 remains an official holiday, but without any strong political agenda. “For me, this day is a time to gather with family, but I see that younger women are giving it a new meaning,” Zarina, 40, from Dushanbe told TCA. Changing Values and Perspectives Each year, debates over the significance of March 8 grow stronger. Some argue that it should remain a celebration of spring and femininity, while others emphasize its role in promoting gender equality. Regardless of interpretation, International Women’s Day remains an important occasion that unites different generations of women and reinforces the need for respect and support. Over time, the holiday in Central Asia has evolved from a Soviet...

Rare Earth Metals

Kazakhstan: Calls for Investigation into Rare Earth Metals Exports

Azat Peruashev, head of the Ak Zhol parliamentary faction, has urged authorities to investigate subsoil users over alleged uncontrolled exports of rare earth metals. Parliamentary Inquiry Peruashev outlined his concerns in a parliamentary request addressed to Kazakhstan’s Anti-Corruption Service chief Askhat Zhumagali and Minister of Industry Ersaiyn Nagaspayev. "Social media posts by former Kazakhmys laboratory assistant Bakyt Adilova allege that the corporation exports ore and copper concentrate without conducting chemical analysis, concealing the presence of valuable and rare earth metals. She claims the company artificially devalues exported resources, harming the national economy to benefit oligarchs," Peruashev stated. He also cited an interview with geologist Bakyt Muratov on Elmedia, in which the expert criticized the absence of laboratory analysis in ore and concentrate exports. Muratov noted that for decades, major mining companies have shipped raw materials abroad for processing, leaving Kazakhstan unaware of the true value of its exports. "We still do not know exactly what we are selling. Complex ores are being exported without proper analysis. No one knows the vast sums of money that have left the country and returned as finished products," Muratov said. The Ak Zhol parliamentary faction is demanding official confirmation or denial of these claims. Lawmakers insist that authorities either prosecute those spreading false information or launch an anti-corruption investigation. Additionally, the party is calling for tighter government oversight of mineral exports. "Kazakhstan holds significant reserves of rare earth metals, including lanthanum, cerium, and yttrium, strategic elements crucial for high-tech industries. Rare earth metals are emerging as the 'new oil' in the global economy, with their availability increasingly influencing global power dynamics. Experts estimate that demand for some of these metals could grow up to 40-fold in the coming years," Peruashev concluded. Response from Kazakhmys In response, Kazakhmys Corporation stated that it does not engage in targeted mining of rare earth metals. However, the company acknowledged that small amounts of rare metals are recovered during acid washing processes. The corporation explained that production waste is processed at Zhezkazganredmet, a state-owned enterprise specializing in the separation and refining of rare metals. Waste from precious metal production is handled by Kazakhmys Progress LLP, which is responsible for refining. “All company operations are strictly regulated by the relevant authorities. We fully support stronger state oversight of mineral exports and are open to dialogue with government agencies. Allegations of concealing rare earth metals or artificially lowering the value of exported raw materials are baseless and do not reflect reality,” Kazakhmys said in a statement. Kazakhmys and the Broader Rare Earth Metals Landscape Kazakhmys was established as a joint stock company in August 1997 and re-registered as a limited liability partnership in January 2005. The company specializes in mining and processing copper ore into cathodes and rods, refining and selling precious metals, and managing by-products from copper production. Kazakhmys ranks as the world’s 20th largest producer of copper in concentrate (271 ktpa) and 12th largest producer of blister and cathode copper (377 ktpa and 365 ktpa, respectively). Its operations include...

E-Commerce

Foreign E-Commerce Platforms in Central Asia Face New Tax Burdens

Local business owners argue that foreign marketplaces enjoy unfair competitive advantages. To address this, Central Asian authorities plan to impose new tax requirements. For consumers, this move could mean higher inflation. Unequal Conditions In February, members of Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis highlighted that foreign marketplaces pay four times less in taxes than their local counterparts. Deputies from the Ak Zhol party, which advocates for business interests, have proposed requiring foreign e-commerce platforms to register with Kazakhstan’s tax authorities and pay value-added tax (VAT) on revenue from local buyers. This proposal targets major marketplaces such as Temu, Amazon, and AliExpress. In 2023, foreign marketplaces contributed just 4.8% of their turnover to Kazakhstan’s treasury, leading to an estimated budget shortfall of tens of millions of dollars. By contrast, Kazakhstani marketplaces face a significantly higher fiscal burden, paying an average of 16.3% in taxes. Local entrepreneurs using domestic platforms may pay up to 62% in various fees and levies, lawmakers claim. They argue that this imbalance undermines the competitiveness of local businesses, leading to factory closures and job losses. A study by the Alliance of Technological Companies Qaztech found that 20% of Kazakhstani consumers currently shop exclusively on foreign platforms. Without government intervention, this share could exceed 50% by 2029, resulting in substantial budgetary losses. “Pay Up or Leave” In January, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov proposed increasing VAT while reducing social tax and pension contributions for employers. The plan includes raising the basic VAT rate to 16%, though certain businesses may receive exemptions. In March, National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin confirmed that the VAT increase would also apply to online marketplaces. “We set rules and laws, and marketplaces must either comply or exit our market. As far as I know, Temu and Pinduoduo have already conditionally registered here and are VAT payers,” Zhumangarin stated. He emphasized that the government is not imposing a special tax on specific platforms but rather enforcing equal treatment across all e-commerce players. Zhumangarin acknowledged that the VAT hike might cause a short-term inflationary spike, estimating an additional 3% increase. Overall inflation, he noted, could return to double digits, reaching 12–14%. Uzbekistan Follows Suit Uzbekistan is also moving to curb foreign e-commerce dominance. Beginning March 20, the country will restrict access to Temu unless the platform registers for tax purposes. Authorities argue that some foreign marketplaces evade national tax regulations, creating unfair competition for local businesses. Uzbek analyst Timurmalik Elmuradov suggests that Temu has two options: establish a subsidiary in Uzbekistan or register as a VAT payer. The Chinese platform’s estimated monthly sales in Uzbekistan amount to $8-9 million. Online marketplaces are a relatively new phenomenon in Uzbekistan, with Temu operating in the country for only about six months. Should foreign e-commerce platforms withdraw, the cost of imported goods could rise by 10-12%. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has around 50 domestic online marketplaces, though they struggle to compete with larger foreign rivals. While Chinese, Russian, and Western platforms offer a vast selection and lower prices, local businesses emphasize faster and more reliable delivery.

Trade War

How Trump’s Trade War on China Affects Central Asia

When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on China and the European Union could have severe consequences not only for Brussels and Beijing, but also for economies around the world. Central Asia is no exception, as it could easily be caught in the crossfire. Although no country in Central Asia sees the United States as its major economic partner, Trump’s trade war with the EU and China is expected to impact all Central Asian nations in one way or another. Their strong economic ties with China and the growing EU presence in the region were once seen as a strategic advantage. Now, it seems to represent a double-edged sword. As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all Central Asian states have sought to strengthen economic relations with Beijing and Brussels. Their partnerships with China and the EU have grown through trade and investments, but Washington’s tariffs on Chinese and European goods could result in a reduction in demand for various items in Central Asia. Trump’s tariff policy could also give Beijing certain leverage over Washington in the strategically important region. According to Mark Temnycky, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, as a way to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, the Chinese could increase their trade and energy relations with the countries of Central Asia. “This would further accelerate China’s relationship with Central Asia, and it could result in the regional states becoming more dependent on the Chinese for trade. Given the proximity of China to Central Asia, this may also result in the regional nations reducing their trade relations with the European Union as well as with the United States, as they favor Chinese prices,” Temnycky told The Times of Central Asia in an interview. U.S. bilateral trade in the region has never been particularly strong. The exception is Kazakhstan – the region’s largest economy – which is the only country in Central Asia whose trade with the U.S. exceeds one billion dollars. According to official statistics, in 2024 America’s total goods trade with Kazakhstan was estimated at $3.4 billion. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan combined have a lower trade volume with the United States than Kazakhstan. But all that is just a drop in the ocean compared to the $89.4 billion trade China reached with Central Asian in 2023. “Trump’s tariff policy could lead to an even greater Central Asian states’ dependency on China, potentially creating a Chinese monopoly on Central Asian trade and energy. In other words, regional countries would no longer have a diversified economy and market, thus tightening China's control over the area,” Temnycky stressed. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Beijing will, in the long term, benefit from Washington’s tariff policy. According to Tyler Schipper, an economist and Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas, China is “arguably at one of its economically weakest points in the last several decades,” which means that any trade war with the...

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Agrees to Increase Oil Transit Through Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR have agreed to increase the transit of Kazakh oil through the Aktau-Baku-Ceyhan route in 2025. The decision was made during a meeting in Baku between KazMunayGas Chairman Askhat Hasenov and SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, where they reviewed progress on the 2022 oil transportation agreement. At the end of 2024, the volume of Kazakh oil transported through Azerbaijan reached 1.4 million tons. Under the new plan, this figure is set to increase to 1.7 million tons in 2025. The expansion will enhance the transit potential of both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, while boosting Kazakhstan’s access to global energy markets. Focus on Decarbonization and Energy Cooperation During the talks, the two companies also discussed their strategic partnership on decarbonization, which was formalized at the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP-29) in Azerbaijan. The agreement focuses on: Introducing low-carbon technologies in the oil and gas sector. Reducing harmful emissions from energy production. Additionally, discussions covered joint exploration projects, oil and gas production, investment opportunities, and the digitalization of industrial processes. “SOCAR is a key partner of KazMunayGas. Together, we will continue to contribute to global energy security and the stability of hydrocarbon supplies. This partnership will create new transit opportunities through the Caspian region,” said Hasenov. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan’s Broader Cooperation Beyond oil transit, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan recently signed an agreement to construct an underwater fiber-optic communication line across the Caspian Sea. The deal was finalized during Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov’s recent visit to Baku. This project, along with the expanded oil transit, highlights the deepening economic and strategic partnership between the two Caspian nations.