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New Fighting in Syria Throws Astana Talks Off Track

It’s called the Astana process: a long-running series of talks hosted by Kazakhstan whose stated aim is to deliver peace to conflict-torn Syria. Some Syrian opposition figures and other critics, however, have said the “guarantor” countries of the process – Iran, Russia and Türkiye – use it to promote their own political and military interests in the region. The dialogue named after the Kazakh capital, which marked its 22nd round in Astana on Nov. 11-12, was undercut on Nov. 27 when Syrian rebels launched a surprise attack against government forces and seized most of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, within days. The stunning operation, which reignited the civil war that began in 2011, followed several years of relative quiet during which Syria was divided into areas of factional control and foreign influence. Iran, Russia and Türkiye are talking about the Astana process as a way out of the current chaos. Visiting Türkiye on Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the negotiations format must be “preserved” and that the foreign ministers of the guarantor countries would meet soon to discuss Syria, according to Iranian state media. Multiple media reports say the meeting could take place not in Astana, but on the sidelines of a forum in Doha, Qatar on Dec. 7-8. “All agreed: NO ONE benefits from another war in Syria,” Araghchi said on the X platform. Russia, which along with Iran supports Syrian President Bashar Assad and uses its military presence there to project power in the region and beyond, has also referred to the Astana framework as a way to stabilize the situation. At the same time, Russian jets have conducted bombing runs in response to the rebel offensive, and Iran says it would consider any Syrian government request to send troops. Türkiye, on the other hand, has backed some Syrian rebel groups and blames the resurgence of fighting on Assad’s failure to engage with the opposition. Türkiye, which hosts several million Syrian refugees on its territory, has sent its own military into northern Syria and seeks to counter an autonomous Kurdish area in the northeast of the country. The talks in Astana, which is perceived as a neutral venue, started in 2017 and have included the Syrian government and some Syrian opposition groups. There is also United Nations representation. Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have participated as observers. The United States initially took part as an observer, but dropped out several years ago, favoring a U.N.-backed peace process in Geneva. The Astana track provided for so-called deescalation zones, though the Syrian government violated the agreement and seized some of those areas, squeezing rebels and civilians into a smaller area along the Turkish border. While important to reconciliation efforts, the Astana dialogue “has been heavily influenced by the interests and positions” of the sponsoring countries – Iran, Russia and Türkiye, author Zenonas Tziarras wrote in an analysis published in 2022 by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, a non-profit group. “As the scope of the process became wider, encompassing political and...

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Trump’s Bid for Ukraine-Russia Peace: Could Kazakhstan Be the Key Mediator?

One of the anticipated top priorities of Donald Trump’s presidency is ending Russia's war in Ukraine while normalizing relations with Moscow. Writing on his Truth Social channel, Trump stated that, “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” Trump’s nominee to serve as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, 80-year-old former national security advisor, General Keith Kellogg, laid out his plan in writing for the America First policy institute, whilst focusing on characterizing the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies [which] has entangled America in an endless war.” There are fears, however, that Kellogg’s proposal to reach a ceasefire by freezing the frontlines and forcing both sides the negotiating table will lead to a tumultuously violent period as Moscow seeks to swallow up territory. Meanwhile, NATO’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, has warned that compelling Ukraine into a “bad peace” would pose a “dire threat” to the U.S. itself. Whilst the framework for bringing a pause to hostilities is becoming clearer, it appears that Trump (or his representative) will need to meet with Vladimir Putin, and Kazakhstan has emerged as a potential venue for this high-stakes meeting. Kazakhstan's Role as Mediator Russian political analyst, Arkady Dubnov, has argued that Putin’s recent state visit to Astana may be an indication that Kazakhstan could play a pivotal role, and that given Putin’s limited travel options due to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him, Kazakhstan, with its reputation for diplomacy, would be a logical choice. “Putin is essentially restricted from visiting most of the Western Hemisphere,” Dubnov explained. “This leaves the Eurasian East, and among its cities, Astana stands out. Kazakhstan has hosted OSCE and CICA summits, mediated in the Syrian conflict, and facilitated peace talks over the future of the South Caucasus.” Dubnov sees Putin’s visit to Astana as indirectly tied to a possible meeting with Trump. “The Kremlin trusts Kazakhstan as an ally while respecting its constructive relations with the U.S. and the broader West,” he stated. Kazakhstan has long been recognized as a neutral ground where East and West can find commonality. The Astana process on Syria, initiated in 2017, helped prevent the escalation of hostilities for years, whilst Kazakhstan has mediated in other long-standing disputes, such as the conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijan. Given this history, it is conceivable that a reconciliation process between Russia and Ukraine could start in Astana. Neither the Minsk agreements of 2014, nor discussions in Istanbul in 2022 achieved lasting peace, but Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts could provide fresh impetus. Early Peace Efforts In March 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, emphasized the urgency of negotiations to bring a halt to hostilities, a stance that has since gained momentum as the war drags on. By 2024, the validity of Tokayev’s view — that negotiations are the only viable path to end the bloodshed — has become increasingly apparent. Kazakhstan’s diplomatic corps has actively pushed for peace....

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Amid Sanctions, China’s Xinjiang Strengthens Ties with Central Asia

China’s Xinjiang region is deepening its engagement with Pakistan and Central Asia as part of efforts to counter Western sanctions and bolster its role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On November 26, officials from Xinjiang met with their counterparts from Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu region for the first meeting under a new cross-border coordination mechanism. The discussions focused on cross-border tourism, infrastructure, market regulation, quarantine measures, and joint crime prevention. The meeting culminated in the signing of a memorandum on cross-border tourism. The discussions took place near the port of Khorgos, a critical hub for the China Railway Express, which connects China with Europe. Khorgos is home to China’s first cross-border cooperation center, where residents of neighboring countries can engage in business and shop visa-free. The center allows duty-free purchases of up to 8,000 yuan ($1,104) per day. Xinjiang Governor Erkin Tunyoz stressed the importance of strengthening ties with Zhetysu in areas such as trade, tourism, security, and agriculture. This cooperation is becoming increasingly crucial for Beijing as Xinjiang grapples with sanctions from the United States and other Western countries over alleged human rights abuses—a claim that China denies. Sanctions include the U.S. Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which prohibits imports from Xinjiang suspected of being produced using forced labor. Similar measures have been implemented by Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. In addition to its collaboration with Kazakhstan, China has established a dialogue mechanism with the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Since 2020, foreign ministers from these nations have met annually to discuss logistics, trade, investment, agriculture, mining, and security. Li Lifan, a Central Asia scholar at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, described Xinjiang as a “bridgehead” for the BRI. He highlighted the region’s rich natural resources and its role as a base for major industries, including automobile manufacturing. In 2023, trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries surged by 50%, reaching 283 billion yuan ($39 billion). Despite these successes, Li cautioned about future challenges. He noted uncertainties surrounding potential Western secondary sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. Additionally, U.S.-China relations remain fraught, with further unpredictability anticipated under the leadership of Donald Trump. “Full economic development may only be achievable once global tensions ease,” he said.

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Russia’s Strategic Posturing and Putin’s November Visit to Kazakhstan

On November 27, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan underscored the complex geopolitical and security challenges facing the region. Hosted by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, the visit took place amidst heightened tensions following Russia’s deployment of its Oreshnik hypersonic missile in Ukraine on November 21. This escalation has reshaped the regional security environment, compelling Kazakhstan to confront potential spillover effects of the Ukraine conflict. Energy remained a central focus during the visit. Kazakhstan remains heavily reliant on oil exports through the pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which passes through southern Russia. This cooperation benefits Kazakhstan economically but, by tying Kazakhstan further into Russian energy networks, it further complicates Astana's efforts to balance relations with Moscow and Western powers. Following periodic closures of the CPC route on various pretexts, Kazakhstan has resolved to diversify its energy export strategy. It has increased shipments by barge across the Caspian Sea to enter the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which terminates on Turkey's coast in the eastern Mediterranean. One should not be surprised if ideas about the old Trans-Caspian Oil Pipeline (TCOP) project are taken out of deep storage for reanimation. The TCOP is an undersea link first discussed in the late 2000s between then-Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Nicolas Sarkozy of France. It was shelved at the time because it did not seem geoeconomically necessary. Since then, relations between Russia and Kazakhstan have been complicated by the periodic CPC closures that, although they are given technical justification, appear politically motivated by Moscow to squeeze Astana. Kazakhstan's short-term solution, to increase oil shipments by barge across the Caspian Sea to Baku for insertion into the BTC pipeline, simply cannot attain the volumes necessary to provide a strategic alternative to the CPC. The BTC, at present, would be able to accommodate whatever volumes Kazakhstan would be able to transit to Azerbaijan including via a prospective TCOP, for export to world markets from Ceyhan. One would suppose that bilateral discussions also covered the possible participation of Rosatom in the construction and operation of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). However, no mention of this topic was made in public statements. Kazakhstan would prefer to escape the vise-like pressure between Russia and China on this matter. That is why Tokayev has discussed participation by the French firms Orano and EDF with France's President Emmanuel Macron. It has recently been suggested that it would be technically feasible for Kazakhstan to find a group of Western companies capable of executing the project. A Western consortium would have no reason to hesitate to include Kazatomprom in an appropriate role, not excluding capacity-building. The Russia-only and China-only options for the NPP's construction would be less welcoming to such a possibility. Kazakhstan's leadership has become properly sensitive to how energy partnerships are not just economic decisions, but strategic calculations in Central Asia's volatile geopolitical landscape. Indeed, Russia’s use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine has created an entirely new security situation. It has raised concerns that...

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Russian MP Blames Central Asians for Ruble Depreciation

Mikhail Matveyev, a member of Russia’s State Duma, has attributed the depreciation of the Russian ruble in part to remittances by labor migrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus. In a statement on his Telegram channel, Matveyev argued that millions of migrants working in Russia transfer their earnings abroad, removing significant sums from the Russian economy. According to him, these remittances fuel demand for foreign currencies, such as the dollar, thereby weakening the ruble. Citing statistics, Matveyev claimed that in 2023, labor migrants sent $5.7 billion from Russia to Tajikistan - nearly half of Tajikistan’s GDP. Kyrgyzstan received remittances equal to about one-third of its GDP, while Uzbekistan received over $14.5 billion, accounting for 12-15% of its GDP. Other significant recipients included Georgia (over $2 billion), Armenia (over $3 billion), and Kazakhstan. Matveyev also criticized some of these countries for their stance on Western sanctions against Russia. He noted that several countries in the Eurasia region have joined sanctions targeting Russian banks and refuse to process transactions using the Russian Mir payment system. This, he said, forces migrants to withdraw cash dollars from Russia to transfer home, exacerbating the pressure on the ruble exchange rate. The MP’s remarks came amid a sharp drop in the ruble’s value against the dollar last week. For more than 30 years, millions of Central Asian citizens have migrated to Russia for work. However, recent trends indicate an increase in return migration, driven by Russia’s deteriorating economic conditions, stricter immigration rules, worsening attitudes toward Central Asian workers, and attempts by Russian authorities to recruit immigrants - both with and without Russian citizenship - for military service in Ukraine.

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CSTO Leaders Tackle Regional Security, Nuclear Energy, and Afghan Border Concerns

Astana hosted a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), gathering heads of member states to discuss pressing regional and international issues. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chaired the session of the CSTO Collective Security Council. Attendees included Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov. In his address, President Tokayev highlighted the CSTO’s pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability in Eurasia. “Amid modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle complex and large-scale tasks. The CSTO is not merely a military partnership but a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tokayev stated. CSTO’s Response to Kazakhstan’s 2022 Crisis Tokayev reflected on the CSTO’s rapid deployment in January 2022, when Kazakhstan faced unrest over rising gas prices, which escalated into violent confrontations. Within 24 hours, CSTO forces were deployed to stabilize the situation. Russian troops secured strategic facilities in Almaty, while Kazakh forces restored order, marking a critical demonstration of the organization’s operational capability. Putin Unveils "Oreshnik" Missile System Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed ongoing tensions with Ukraine, signaling the potential use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system in response to Western-supplied long-range missiles targeting Russian territory. According to Putin, the Oreshnik has the destructive power of nuclear weapons, and can penetrate heavily fortified targets. “The temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 degrees. At the explosion's epicenter, everything is reduced to elementary particles, essentially turning to dust,” he explained. Putin also announced that serial production of the missile had begun, with several units ready for deployment. Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Project Discussions also turned to Kazakhstan’s plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Tokayev has proposed an international consortium, and Putin expressed Russia's willingness to participate through Rosatom, emphasizing its extensive experience with international collaborations. “Rosatom is ready to work with specialists from other countries,” Putin remarked, leaving the door open for multilateral cooperation. Armenia’s Absence and CSTO’s Future Noticeably absent from the summit was Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, following Armenia’s decision to freeze its CSTO membership earlier this year. Yerevan cited concerns over its sovereignty as the reason for the suspension. Secretary-General Tasmagambetov remained optimistic about Armenia’s return, calling it a valued ally. “This is the decision of an independent and sovereign state, which no country or organization can influence. Nevertheless, we view Armenia as an ally and hope it will return to full participation in the CSTO in the foreseeable future,” Tasmagambetov stated. Key Summit Outcomes During the session, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) also reflected on Kazakhstan's presidency in 2024, highlighting significant milestones achieved under its leadership. President Tokayev reported that approximately 60 activities were conducted within the CSTO's statutory areas of cooperation during Kazakhstan’s presidency. This included advancing coordinated approaches to key international issues in collaboration with member...