Kazakhstan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle East

Kazakhstan Acts Swiftly on Middle East Crisis: Citizens Evacuated, Flights Suspended

In the wake of escalating hostilities in the Middle East, Kazakhstan has undertaken swift measures to safeguard its citizens and adapt its aviation policies. On the night of June 13, Israel launched “Operation Lion’s Roar,” targeting military and strategic sites in Iran, citing concerns over Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. The offensive triggered international concern and widespread flight restrictions, which affected Kazakhstani citizens in the UAE, Iran, and Israel. Stranded Tourists and Initial Evacuations In its immediate response, Kazakhstan’s Aviation Administration imposed a full ban on flights through the airspace of Iran, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. The directive applied to all Kazakh carriers, both commercial and charter, requiring them to halt operations across the affected regions. As a result, around 300 Kazakh nationals, primarily tourists, were unable to return home. Despite prior warnings, flights to the UAE continued to depart with full passenger loads, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov. Evacuations began the following day. On June 14, six Kazakh citizens were evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan. By June 15, another 68 individuals, including diplomats and their families, crossed into Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its gratitude to Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and other partner countries for facilitating the evacuations. Further operations saw 332 Kazakh tourists repatriated from the UAE to Almaty on two FlyDubai flights on June 15, with support from the Turistik Kamkor Foundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As of June 20, an additional 66 citizens had been evacuated from Israel via Egypt, while 78 others left Iran through Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. “Thanks to joint efforts, more and more citizens are able to return home safely,” the Foreign Ministry noted. Ministry Advisories and Air Travel Disruptions On June 23, the Foreign Ministry issued an official advisory urging Kazakh citizens to refrain from traveling to the Middle East. Those already in the region were instructed to stay alert, avoid large gatherings, monitor official updates, and maintain contact with Kazakh embassies. Airlines also took precautionary measures. Air Astana extended its suspension of flights to Dubai and Doha through June 24, offering passengers the option of free rebooking or a full refund. SCAT Airlines announced delays to flights bound for Sharm el-Sheikh and Antalya, citing bird strikes and the volatile security environment. The airline also cancelled a flight from Astana to Doha. By June 24, Dubai’s Al Maktoum and Dubai International airports had resumed full operations. The airspace over Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait also reopened. UAE authorities have urged travelers to confirm flight details with their airlines and arrive early at airports.

Israel-Iran Escalation

After U.S. Bombs Iran, Central Asia Calls for Diplomacy and Restraint

In the early hours of June 22, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggering widespread concern across Central Asia. Despite the potential economic upside for Kazakhstan, with the possibility of rising oil prices, the region’s governments have uniformly called for restraint and a peaceful resolution. The operation, dubbed “Midnight Hammer” by the U.S. Department of Defense, reportedly targeted facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. While Washington claimed success, the Iranian authorities asserted they had evacuated uranium from the Fordow site in advance, calling the mission a failure. Military experts continue to debate the extent of the damage. Coordinated Responses from Central Asian Capitals The foreign ministries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan issued similarly worded statements expressing concern over the rapidly deteriorating situation. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the U.S. airstrikes marked a dangerous escalation and emphasized the need for negotiations grounded in the UN Charter. “Kazakhstan is part of the group of Caspian countries and is developing cooperation with Iran in various areas. Our country believes that all disagreements, including nuclear issues, should be resolved through negotiations,” the statement said. It also urged international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and establish security guarantees for nations adhering to the non-proliferation regime. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry echoed this sentiment and advised citizens to avoid traveling to Israel and Iran. It also urged those currently in those countries to leave high-risk areas where possible. Kyrgyzstan called on all parties to exercise “maximum restraint” and avoid steps that could exacerbate the crisis. Turkmenistan reaffirmed its policy of "positive neutrality," stressing the importance of diplomacy and adherence to international law. Ashgabat stated that it “does not accept the use or threat of force as a means of resolving political and other disputes”. Tajikistan, meanwhile, issued the strongest statement, condemning the U.S. and Israeli strikes outright and warning that the conflict could lead to a prolonged regional war. Dushanbe called on the UN, IAEA, and other global bodies to prevent violations of international law and work towards peace and environmental safety. The Economic Subtext: Rising Oil Prices While official reactions were uniformly cautious, analysts in Kazakhstan noted the economic implications. Expert Olzhas Baidildin pointed out that shares in KazMunayGas surged by 11% following the strikes, with its market capitalization rising to 10.3 trillion KZT ($19.8 billion). Baidildin previously argued that Iran is unlikely to follow through on threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, he noted that such a move would dramatically increase the strategic importance of Kazakhstan and other Central Asian energy producers to major consumers such as China and India. Financial analyst Andrei Chebotarev agreed, stating: "Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is no longer the ace it once was. The West has diversified away from Gulf oil, while the real impact would fall on China, the region’s largest importer. Meanwhile, the U.S. could benefit from a price surge through its shale exports". It is estimated that China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports...

Israel-Iran Escalation

Central Asia and Israel, a Pragmatic Relationship That Never Truly Blossomed

The conflict between Israel and Iran is having both international and regional repercussions. The situation has been further inflamed by the U.S. bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, with Tehran responding by threatening retaliation on U.S. soil through the use of sleeper terrorist cells and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. While Israel's geographical position places it at the heart of the Middle East, Iran's location brings the Islamic Republic into close contact with Central Asia. The consequences of the conflict are therefore likely to be felt heavily in the Central Asian region. The close relations between Tehran and the capitals of Central Asia, due in part to their geographical proximity, are often highlighted. Less explored is the nature of the relationship between Tel Aviv and Central Asia and the lines along which it has developed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. On both the Israeli and Central Asian sides, despite all the differences, relations began in the early 1990s, mainly based on certain mutual interests. From Israel's point of view, relations with Central Asia would mean expanding the circle of Muslim countries with which it had friendly ties, gaining greater influence in the region, and reducing its diplomatic isolation. From the Central Asian perspective, the appeal lay in increasing the number of its international partners, coupled with a desire to access Israeli know-how in numerous fields, and the possibility, through relations with Tel Aviv, of having a privileged channel of dialogue with the United States. More than three decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, relations remain good for the most part. “The positive relationship between Israel and Central Asia is driven by a combination of strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors,” Dr Zeev Levin, Coordinator of the Central Asian Research Unit at the Harry S. Truman Institute, told The Times of Central Asia. “One of the primary drivers is mutual interest in security and counterterrorism. Economically, Israel’s expertise in water management, agriculture, and technology is highly attractive to the arid, resource-seeking nations of Central Asia that aim to modernize their infrastructure and diversify their economies beyond oil and gas. Additionally, fostering ties with Israel provides a means of diversifying the foreign policy portfolios of the Central Asian republics.” This positive relationship, however, seems to have lost momentum in recent years due to several factors. Central Asian republics have increasingly oriented towards the East, moving closer to China and other players such as South Korea, Japan, and India, or towards other partners, such as the European ones, with Italy at the forefront in this regard. As Levin points out, the relation has cooled due to several factors: “Central Asian republics did look to Israel in the first decade of independence, but in the last decade to a much lesser extent, since Turkey and China are less complicated and cheaper options. For Israel, the region was never a priority or a point of...

Israel-Iran Escalation

After U.S. Strikes, Kazakhstan Warns of Deteriorating Security in Caspian Region

Kazakhstan said on Sunday that U.S. military strikes on Iran pose “serious consequences” for security in the Caspian region. “As a result of recent U.S. military actions against Iran, the international situation is rapidly deteriorating, posing serious consequences for the security of states in our region,” Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said after the United States joined Israel’s war against Iran and attacked several Iranian nuclear sites. “Kazakhstan, as one of the Caspian region states, maintains cooperation with Iran in various spheres. We believe that all disputes, including those related to nuclear issues, must be resolved through negotiations based on the United Nations Charter,” the ministry said. “We urge all relevant states to accelerate the development of an agreement aimed at preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and providing security guarantees for states that comply with the non-proliferation regime under international oversight,” it said. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Russia border the Caspian Sea. The area is an important trade route.

Drone Crash

Another Suspected Drone Discovered in Kazakhstan’s Mangistau Region

On June 19, fragments of a suspicious object resembling an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) were discovered in the Karakiyan district of Kazakhstan’s Mangistau Region, near the Bolashak border station. According to the Mangistau Region Police Department, the UAV debris was found in a remote area, far from populated settlements. Authorities emphasized that "no damage" was reported. The incident is currently under investigation in cooperation with the relevant agencies. Potential Iranian Link Suggested While officials have not confirmed the origin or type of the device, speculation is growing. The KazTAG news agency reported that the shape of the debris may resemble that of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone. These drones have been reportedly supplied by Iran to Russia since late 2022 and used extensively in the war in Ukraine. According to independent sources, Russia may have paid Iran approximately 1.8 tons of gold, worth around $104 million, for a consignment of Shahed-136 drones. Despite denials from both Moscow and Tehran, the drones' deployment in Ukraine has been documented by independent journalists and military experts. Meanwhile, pro-Kremlin sources have speculated that it could be a British Banshee drone used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. [caption id="attachment_33143" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: TCA[/caption] Pattern Emerges Along Western Border This is not an isolated occurrence. Since early 2024, at least three similar incidents have been recorded in the West Kazakhstan Region (WKR). UAVs or drone parts were discovered in the villages of Ualy (February 18), Atameken (March 18), and Zhanibek (March 25). Regional media have noted that some of the discovered objects bear a resemblance to French-made Crecerelle reconnaissance drones, produced by Sagem. However, no official conclusions have been issued. Broader Security Implications The repeated discovery of drone-like objects in Kazakhstan raises broader security concerns, particularly given the proximity of Russian regions frequently targeted by Ukrainian drones. Strategic installations in Russia’s Saratov region, including airfields and oil depots, have been hit multiple times. In this context, the unexplained appearance of aerial objects near Kazakhstan’s borders is concerning. Experts stress the need for transparent investigations and enhanced monitoring of airspace, especially near critical infrastructure and transportation corridors. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense previously stated that UAV fragments found in February and March 2025 may have originated from activities at Russia’s 929th State Flight Test Center, located near the Kazakh border. The facility, named after Chkalov, is used by the Russian Ministry of Defense for testing military aircraft.

Oil and Gas

Turkmenistan’s Gas Swap Deals Could Be Collateral Damage from Israeli-Iran Conflict

Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, but the country has found it difficult to export substantial volumes. Lack of export pipelines are one of the problems and it seemed Turkmenistan had partially solved this dilemma by arranging gas swap deals. Unfortunately for Turkmenistan, these deals involve Iran as the key country, and the Israeli-Iran conflict sheds new doubt on the ability of Iran to fulfill its part in the swap arrangements. So Close Turkmenistan signed a deal to supply 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to Iraq in late October 2024. It was the first major gas export deal Turkmenistan had signed in nearly two decades. That last big agreement was signed with China in 2006. It involved building four gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to China to eventually carry a combined 85 bcm of gas, 65 bcm of which would be Turkmen gas. Since the pipelines cross through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, both of those countries are allotted 10 bcm each of the capacity for their gas exports. The fourth branch that would have carried 30 bcm of Turkmen gas has not been built, leaving Turkmen gas exports to China averaging 35 bcm per year. At the moment, China is the only major customer for Turkmen gas. The second largest buyer of Turkmen gas is Uzbekistan, which only purchases about 2 bcm. Not even 20 years ago, Russia was purchasing more than 40 bcm of Turkmen gas, but by 2023 that had dwindled to 5.5 bcm, still leaving Russia as the second largest buyer of Turkmen gas. In July 2024, after negotiations over price broke down, the two parties chose not to renew that contract. That made the agreement with Iraq all the more important for Turkmenistan. However, there are no pipelines connecting the two countries. Yet So Far The Turkmen-Iraqi agreement calls for Turkmenistan to ship 10 bcm of gas to Iran, with Iran then sending 10 bcm of its gas to Iraq. Iran needs gas for its northern regions that are not connected to the domestic pipeline network that sources gas from the fields of in the south of the country. Turkmenistan has two pipelines to export gas to Iran. Both were built after independence in 1991, and could carry up to a combined 20 bcm. Since January 2017, when the Turkmen government made good on a threat to cut off Iran over unpaid bills for gas, almost no gas has been shipped through these pipelines. The first task is to perform maintenance, repairs, and upgrades on these pipelines so that Turkmenistan can physically send 10 bcm of gas to Iran. The Iranian pipeline to Iraq is functional. Iran was exporting gas to Iraq, but international sanctions on Iran hindered Iraq’s ability to pay for that gas. Prior to the agreement with Iraq, Turkmenistan signed a contract in early July 2024 with Iranian officials for the transfer of gas. It is unclear how far along Turkmenistan is in performing its pipeline...