Kazakhstan Opinions - The Times Of Central Asia

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Nurturing Global Partnerships – Opinion by the Minister of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Sayasat Nurbek

Kazakhstan, a sprawling and culturally diverse nation nestled in Central Asia, has strategically embraced a multi-vector policy across its foreign relations, economic strategies, and governance. At the heart of this strategy lies Kazakhstan's multi-vector policy in education, a forward-thinking initiative that underscores the nation's commitment to diversification, international collaboration, and educational modernization. International partnerships form a cornerstone of Kazakhstan's educational framework, enriching its academic landscape and fostering innovation. The country has established strategic alliances with prestigious universities, research institutions, and governmental bodies worldwide. Through collaborative endeavors such as joint research ventures, student and faculty exchanges, the implementation of international educational programs, and the establishment of branches of foreign universities within Kazakhstan, the nation endeavors to harness global expertise and best practices to elevate the caliber of its education system. Multi-Vector Policy in Education Over the past year alone, Kazakhstan has witnessed the opening of eight foreign branches, bringing the total to twelve. The first foreign university established its branch is British De Montfort University. This university opened its doors for its students in 2021, offering educational programs for more than 500 students in such fields as finance, design and business. This branch attracted 16 million US dollars from foreign investors. Noteworthy among these initiatives is Kazakhstan's adoption of a strategic partnership model, which has yielded tangible outcomes. Kozybayev University's collaboration with the University of Arizona in 2022 is a prime example. With 589 students enrolled across ten specialties – spanning pedagogical, biotechnological, and IT domains – this partnership, supported by 1200 full scholarships from the government, signifies a concerted effort to enhance educational opportunities and foster interdisciplinary learning. Similarly, the formation of a consortium in 2022 with renowned German universities, operating under the auspices of the Caspian Engineering and Technology University named after Sh. Yesenov, underscores Kazakhstan's commitment to excellence in engineering education and technological innovation. Offering a diverse array of programs encompassing engineering fields, data management, artificial intelligence, and beyond, this consortium exemplifies Kazakhstan's proactive approach to equipping its citizens with cutting-edge skills and expertise. Established in 2023 at Zhubanov university, the Heriot Watt University branch offers an array of programs in vital fields such as petroleum engineering, electrical power engineering, and computer engineering, boasting an impressive enrollment of 286 students from 13 Kazakhstan regions. The Luban Workshop initiative at Serikbayev University exemplifies Kazakhstan's commitment to advancing its automotive education and training capabilities. This initiative, supported by foreign partners, aims to establish state-of-the-art laboratories specializing in automotive transport. These facilities will serve as a platform for incorporating modern Chinese technological advancements into the curriculum, thereby enhancing the quality of education for future automotive specialists. The project also seeks to foster academic and research collaborations with esteemed Chinese educational institutions, paving the way for the development of dual-degree programs, joint research projects, and other collaborative efforts that will enrich the automotive sector's expertise and innovation. The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked discussions about its potential impact on the workforce and society at large. In response to this...

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The Development and Drivers of Transport and Logistics in Kazakhstan

The challenging geopolitical situation in the region, combined with sanctions pressures, has ruptured traditional transport and logistics chains. Finding itself sandwiched, Kazakhstan has had to actively build new routes for transportation and freight, and to diversify its own suppliers. Measures previously taken to develop the transport and logistics industry has made it possible to solve these problems to some extent, though it still faces many challenges ahead. Kazakhstan’s transport and logistics industry plays an important role in the country’s economy and attracts cargo flows. To transform the country into a transport and transit hub – one of the government’s declared strategic objectives – a number of large-scale measures are being taken today, with investments in the industry of about KZT1.8 trillion (U$4 billion), which are already bearing fruit. Last year, about 29 million tons of freight passed through Kazakhstan, up 21% year-on-year, the lion's share of which was transported by rail. Indeed, railways are slated to lead the country’s transit development. To further increase cargo flow, boost efficiency and, most importantly, expand the capacity of railroads, three large-scale projects were launched in Kazakhstan last year: the construction of a railway line bypassing the Almaty station, as well as two other lines – Darbaza-Maktaaral and Bakhty-Ayagoz. Over the next three years, more than 1,300 km of new rail lines will be laid. The projects aim not only at increasing transit traffic through Kazakhstan, but also expanding the country’s export potential and removing existing bottlenecks. Besides modernizing infrastructure, the industry faces many other tasks to spur transit traffic, including updating rolling stock, putting in place modern digital services, establishing competitive tariff rates for the transport of transit freight, etc. To support cargo flows by road, the most used option, the construction and reconstruction of federal and local highways continues. In 2023, over 10,000 km of road was built or repaired. Such large projects as the BAKAD (Almaty ring road) and the Kandyagash-Makat and Usharal-Dostyk highways were completed. In the coming years, several road projects along federal and regional networks are planned, comprising a total length of about 9,000 km. More attention is to be paid to the quality of the roads under construction, which has been known to raise questions among motorists. Kazakhstan’s maritime transport industry has also seen much development. In this regard, in the near future the creation of a container hub is planned at the Aktau seaport, along with the reconstruction of its docks and an upgrade of handling equipment. Dredging work is also to be done. The port of Kuryk is also being developed through the construction of a multi-functional terminal. Taken together, this will boost the throughput capacity of Kazakhstan’s seaports by 10 million tons, with container capacity rising to 300,000 TEUs per year. This is especially important in the context of the active development of alternative trade routes, in particular the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), for which both seaports will be used. The potential of these routes is...

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Breaking Down Kazakhstan’s Claims Against International Oil Consortiums

The total amount of claims brought against the consortiums, North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) and Karachaganak Petroleum Operating (KPO) is the largest in the history of Kazakhstan. In March 2023, PSA LLP, the authorized state institution overseeing these projects, brought forward claims in international arbitration in relation to Kashagan and Karachaganak for $13.5 billion and $3.0 billion, respectively. In addition, the Atyrau Region environmental regulator filed a claim for $5.1 billion against the NCOC consortium for storing too much sulfur on site, discharging wastewater without treatment, etc. The claims of PSA LLP cover the period 2010-19 and relate to the oil consortiums’ costs for carrying out large projects, as well as tenders and insufficient work completed. The shareholders of NCOC, which is developing the offshore Kashagan Field, include: KMG Kashagan (16.877% stake), Shell Kazakhstan Development (16.807%), Total EP Kazakhstan (16.807%), Agip Caspian Sea (16.807%), ExxonMobil Kazakhstan (16.807%), CNPC Kazakhstan (8.333%) and INPEX North Caspian Sea (7.563%). Their total investments over the period have not been disclosed, but, according to various estimates, exceed $60 billion – meaning the state is currently calling into question about 23% of all costs. The KPO consortium is Shell (29.25%), Eni (29.25%), Chevron (18.0%), Russia’s Lukoil (13.5%) and Kazakhstan’s state-owned KazMunayGas (10.0%). Investments in this oil and gas condensate field are estimated at $27 billion, hence the filed claim is significantly smaller both in absolute terms and as a percentage of costs, standing at about 11%. A production sharing agreement was signed in 1997 for Karachaganak and in 1998 for Kashagan, with the contracts to be in effect for 40 years. In 2022, the sole participant in PSA LLP became Samruk-Kazyna Trust Corporate Fund, part of the state holding National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna, while Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy is currently entrusted to run PSA LLP. NCOC and KPO dominate the industry through control of three fields. Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak are the largest oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan. The country’s oil and gas condensate production in 2023 amounted to 89.9 million tons (about 1.8 million barrels per day), with the share of the “three whales” – as these projects are called – accounting for 67% of oil production: Tengiz with 28.9 million tons, down 1% versus the 2022 level; Kashagan with 18.8 million tons, a 48% increase; Karachaganak with 12.1 million tons, up 7% year-on-year. The stabilization contract for Tengiz was one of the first signed at the dawn of Kazakhstan’s independence in 1993, also for a term of 40 years, meaning it should be the first to expire in 2033. The shareholders of the Tengizchevroil JV are Chevron (50%), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%) and Lukoil (5%). After completion of its FGP (Future Growth Project), Tengiz should produce about 900,000 barrels per day, a significant figure even by world standards. It is surprising that Kazakhstan has not yet raised or voiced any claims against TCO, even though the FGP budget has swelled from an initial $12 billion to $25 billion – due to the addition...

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Time for the U.S. to Cement a “Nuclear-Weapon-Free” Central Asia

The Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ) Treaty, which came into force in 2009, represented a significant advance in international efforts to limit nuclear proliferation. Initiated by the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—it aims to enhance regional and global security by guaranteeing that the region remains free of nuclear weapons. In May 2014, all five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council signed a Protocol to the CANWFZ Treaty (the permanent five include China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, who also happen to be five signatories of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, that have nuclear weapons). This Protocol legally binds them not to use or to threaten to use nuclear weapons against any of the CANWFZ signatories – i.e., the above-listed five Central Asian countries. As the 10th anniversary of the signing of the 2104 Protocol approaches, it is unfortunate that the United States is the only signatory that has not yet ratified it. The CANWFZ Treaty continues to enhance regional security in Central Asia amidst current international tensions and remains a pillar of regional security that deters threats and strengthens global norms. As a gesture of support for the region's nuclear-weapon-free status, U.S. Senate’s ratification of the Protocol would ultimately enhance U.S.’ credibility on the international stage, solidify its strategic commitment to Central Asia at a critical time, and demonstrate that it will continue to pursue a more secure and stable world. It would also be a significant nod towards Kazakhstan's leadership in nuclear disarmament and the country's pro-active stance against nuclear proliferation. The significance of Kazakhstan’s enhanced role Although it took three more years to enter into force, the CANWFZ Treaty was signed in 2006 in the Kazakhstani city of Semei (formerly Semipalatinsk), which used to host Soviet nuclear tests and is located less than 1,400 kilometres away from the Chinese test site at Lop Nor. The USSR conducted over 450 nuclear tests, both underground and atmospheric, at Semipalatinsk between 1949 and 1989. These tests were carried out with scant regard for the health and safety of the local population or the environmental ramifications. The area continues to bear the scars of this era, with elevated levels of cancer, birth defects and other radiation-induced illnesses persisting amongst the population. In response to the devastating impact of nuclear testing, a profound anti-nuclear sentiment took root in Kazakhstan. This culminated in the formation of the civil-society 'Nevada–Semipalatinsk' movement, inspired by similar groups seeking to close U.S. nuclear sites in the state of Nevada. This movement was a pioneering effort in the late 1980s that united Kazakhstan's citizens in opposition to nuclear tests. The Nevada–Semipalatinsk movement was amongst the first (if not the very first) major anti-nuclear movements in the USSR, and its momentum helped drive Kazakhstan towards independence. After its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan inherited the world's fourth largest nuclear arsenal and has cooperated with the West to dismantle it while also preventing the Soviet era nuclear material left on its soil...

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How Kazakhs Saw Their Personal and National Well-Being at the Start of 2024

In December 2023, I was asked quite frequently whether, in my view, protests like the ones that took place across Kazakhstan in January 2022 were again possible. Based on previous sociological data, I answered that they were most likely not: Throughout 2021 – largely due to the pandemic – social sentiment had worsened, reaching its lowest levels in our 20 years of collecting observations. At that time, almost all indicators of social well-being had declined, including satisfaction with life and the approval of government institutions, while expectations of protests about socio-economic and political issues had increased. Since January 2022, however, many indicators began to improve, and by December 2023, they had “normalized”, roughly reaching 2019 levels. This is clearly seen in the indicator regarding the respondent’s satisfaction with life (see Chart 1 below). Over 2004-2023, this indicator saw three incidences of significant deterioration, namely in 2004, in 2008-2009 when the financial crisis struck, and in 2021-2022. Thus, by end-2023, the dangerous convergence of satisfaction/dissatisfaction indicators seems to have passed as social sentiment stabilized. Chart 1: In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your life? (2004-2023) In December 2023, the country's economic situation was also seen as having improved (see Chart 2 below). Some 24% percent of respondents said that the economy was in good shape (versus 7% in 2021); 57% saw things as average (vs. 41% in 2021), and only 13% called the economic situation “bad” (vs. 30% in 2021). Most respondents, therefore, saw the economy in 2023 in a neutral or positive light. Chart 2: How would you assess the current economic situation in Kazakhstan? However, this does not mean that social sentiment has completely turned around and that it can be ignored. The challenging dynamics of “social optimism”, an important indicator, reflects the population’s subjective near-term outlook. Optimistic responses (i.e., “we will be better off”) rose in 2022 to 49% but decreased to 43% in 2023, representing the same level as during the crisis year of 2021 (see Chart 3 below). Chart 3: Do you think that in a year you (your family) will be better or worse off than now? (2004-2023) What drives this decline in Kazakhs’ social optimism? The answer, I think, is low levels of income against a backdrop of rising prices for food and essential goods and services, as well as higher utility tariffs. According to the survey, 58% of the population only has enough money to buy food and clothing and to pay for utilities, with no money left for savings. Almost another fifth of respondents (18.2%) can be classified as “low-income”, meaning their income is barely enough to live on (see below Chart 4). Chart 4: Assess your income versus consumption (%, December 2023) This is why the majority of the population, having carefully planned their small family budgets, painfully experiences unexpected changes to the status quo. Take health care, for example: Some 52.6% of respondents said that their health insurance payments were already too high and that...

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Kazakhstan Shapes an Ambitious Future

As Kazakhstan continues on its path towards economic expansion and modernization, it has set forth a revitalization and growth vision for 2024 and beyond, underpinned by a series of ambitious reforms and strategic investments. A central part to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s vision, which he also detailed in a government meeting on February 7th, is the development of a sustainable and inclusive economy driven by innovation, strategic foreign investment and proactive engagement with the global community. Building on the 2023 growth momentum There are positive indications that Kazakhstan is on the right track, despite challenges posed by ongoing global geopolitical risks and uncertainties. Its strong economic expansion continued in 2023, as gross domestic product (GDP) increased by nearly 5% as of the third quarter. The government is aiming to accelerate the pace of growth further throughout the remainder of the decade. Tokayev said in his February 7th speech that the target was to increase economic output to $450 billion by 2029, stressing that to do this, the country will need 6% annual GDP growth. Attracting investment To achieve this ambitious goal, the country’s leadership is currently implementing a series of reforms, which are designed to attract a substantial influx of foreign investment (of at least $150 billion in total) by adopting environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles, as well as by enhancing the country’s overall investment climate. Examples of these initiatives include “green bonds” introduced in 2017; the sustainable finance initiatives presented since 2021 via the Astana International Financial Center, and the mandatory ESG reporting framework for companies listed on the Astana International Exchange. A pivotal element in Kazakhstan’s comprehensive series of economic reforms and investment strategies is the establishment of the Investment Headquarters, which is charged with the critical mission of enhancing the investment climate within Kazakhstan while ensuring qualitatively the proper execution of investment projects. At the same time, the government is working on a new Tax Code that should comprehensively reset the dynamics between the state and the private sector. The development of this code is guided by the need for a delicate balance between creating an environment conducive to investment, and securing the necessary revenues for the national budget. Local capacity building The strategic plan behind the reforms foresees the introduction and transfer of cutting-edge technologies, the localization of production processes, and the establishment of high value-added clusters. These clusters would be strategically focused on driving the acceleration of the manufacturing sector. Potential sectors to benefit from these clusters include green technology, finance, and agriculture. Furthermore, the legislative and institutional framework will be implemented through the enactment of a fresh law on industrial policy and the establishment of a new Ministry of Industry and Construction. A focus on standards of living These steps represent a commitment to improving the overall well-being of the population in tandem with ensuring economic growth. Tokayev has underscored that the focus of these efforts extends beyond merely achieving macroeconomic expansion and emphasized that economic developments must have a...