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Living Standards

How Kazakhs Saw Their Personal and National Well-Being at the Start of 2024

In December 2023, I was asked quite frequently whether, in my view, protests like the ones that took place across Kazakhstan in January 2022 were again possible. Based on previous sociological data, I answered that they were most likely not: Throughout 2021 – largely due to the pandemic – social sentiment had worsened, reaching its lowest levels in our 20 years of collecting observations. At that time, almost all indicators of social well-being had declined, including satisfaction with life and the approval of government institutions, while expectations of protests about socio-economic and political issues had increased. Since January 2022, however, many indicators began to improve, and by December 2023, they had “normalized”, roughly reaching 2019 levels. This is clearly seen in the indicator regarding the respondent’s satisfaction with life (see Chart 1 below). Over 2004-2023, this indicator saw three incidences of significant deterioration, namely in 2004, in 2008-2009 when the financial crisis struck, and in 2021-2022. Thus, by end-2023, the dangerous convergence of satisfaction/dissatisfaction indicators seems to have passed as social sentiment stabilized. Chart 1: In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your life? (2004-2023) In December 2023, the country's economic situation was also seen as having improved (see Chart 2 below). Some 24% percent of respondents said that the economy was in good shape (versus 7% in 2021); 57% saw things as average (vs. 41% in 2021), and only 13% called the economic situation “bad” (vs. 30% in 2021). Most respondents, therefore, saw the economy in 2023 in a neutral or positive light. Chart 2: How would you assess the current economic situation in Kazakhstan? However, this does not mean that social sentiment has completely turned around and that it can be ignored. The challenging dynamics of “social optimism”, an important indicator, reflects the population’s subjective near-term outlook. Optimistic responses (i.e., “we will be better off”) rose in 2022 to 49% but decreased to 43% in 2023, representing the same level as during the crisis year of 2021 (see Chart 3 below). Chart 3: Do you think that in a year you (your family) will be better or worse off than now? (2004-2023) What drives this decline in Kazakhs’ social optimism? The answer, I think, is low levels of income against a backdrop of rising prices for food and essential goods and services, as well as higher utility tariffs. According to the survey, 58% of the population only has enough money to buy food and clothing and to pay for utilities, with no money left for savings. Almost another fifth of respondents (18.2%) can be classified as “low-income”, meaning their income is barely enough to live on (see below Chart 4). Chart 4: Assess your income versus consumption (%, December 2023) This is why the majority of the population, having carefully planned their small family budgets, painfully experiences unexpected changes to the status quo. Take health care, for example: Some 52.6% of respondents said that their health insurance payments were already too high and that...

From Sabotage to Negligence: Kyrgyz Parliament Seeks to Hold Bishkek Plant Management Accountable After Accident

A special commission is working at the Bishkek thermal power (CHP) plant to find out the cause of the recent accident, with the President of Kyrgyzstan stating that he's taken personal control over the investigation. At a meeting of the Parliament of the Kyrgyz Republic today, MPs demanded the plant's management be held accountable - the same management which issues reassurances that there would be no accidents this winter, and that all equipment was ready for the cold season. "At a strategic facility, the manager has changed three times during the year. It is good that the accident happened at night and not during the day. The damage is said to have exceeded one billion som ($11 million). How many people were hurt, and who will be held responsible? The leaders must answer," MP Emil Toktoshev said, addressing those gathered at the meeting. "It is time to move from just a visual inspection of machinery and equipment to a fully-fledged technical audit, and not only [the Bishkek plant], but, in general, all boiler and power plants should be inspected not by eye. Let's find out what the problems and what needs to be done," said MP Dastan Bekeshev. In the early hours of February 2nd, an incident at the Bishkek CHP plant injured five people, and the city was left without heat and hot water for several days. The interdepartmental commission has been tasked with identifying the cause of the accident within a month. Based on this analysis, a list of urgent tasks will be developed which they say will ensure a stable end to the fall-winter heating period of 2023-24. Measures will also be drawn up to prevent similar situations in the future, including proposals for the reconstruction of the plant, and the decentralization of Bishkek's entire heating system. The Bishkek Prosecutor's Office has opened a criminal case over the accident.

Border

Enclaves, Exclaves, and Soviet Mapmakers

Representatives of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan met in Bishkek on February 5th to complete negotiations on another 3.71 km of the common state border, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic has reported. The next meeting will be held in Tajikistan, with no date yet specified. Currently, approximately 90% of the border has been demarcated, with the remaining 10% still considered disputed. A long-standing source of conflict between the two nations, it is emblematic of the problem that even the length of the border - sometimes cited as being 975-kilomtres long, and at others times 972-kilomteres - is rarely agreed upon. As of January 2023, Tajikistan’s President Rahmon stated that 614-kilometres had been settled upon, backtracking on a previously stated figure of 664. In a sign of thawing relations, however, on November 9th 2023, the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic announced that a further 17.98 kilometers of the border had been agreed. With its scant natural resources and dwindling water supplies, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been the scene of numerous skirmishes for many years. In 2014, all borders between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were closed indefinitely to Kyrgyz and Tajik citizens following clashes over a bypass road in disputed territory; mortars were fired and both armies suffered casualties. Trouble spilled over again throughout 2021 and 2022, reportedly starting over a water dispute in the Vorukh enclave, and leaving an unknown number in the hundreds killed, and up to 136,000 people evacuated. An enduring example of the chaos left behind by the USSR, the arbitrary division of Central Asia into Soviet Socialist Republics wholly disregarded existing cultural and geographical realities. This is exemplified by Stalin's application of Lenin’s policy on the “self-identification of working people,” a classic divide-and-rule play which saw culturally Tajik cities such as Samarkand and Bukhara being incorporated into Uzbek territory. In exchange, Tajikistan was given the inhospitable Khojand landmass surrounding the Fan Mountains. As late as 1989, Tajikistan petitioned Mikhail Gorbachev for the ‘return’ of Samarkand and Bukhara. This haphazard division also isolated around 100,000 residents in the Ferghana Valley from their central governments, creating eight large enclaves. Although three of these enclaves had populations fewer than 10,000 and two were used exclusively for pastures, the remaining three - Sokh (Uzbekistan within Kyrgyzstan), Vorukh (Tajikistan within Kyrgyzstan), and Shakhimardan (Uzbekistan within Kyrgyzstan) have repeatedly proven problematic, particularly when countries enforce strict border regulations in response to disputes and disagreements over demarcation arrangements. These enclaves have been hotbeds for conflict: between 1989 and 2009, the Ferghana Valley witnessed approximately 20 armed conflicts, and in 2014 alone, Kyrgyzstan reported 37 border incidents.

Kazakhstan’s Government Resigns Amidst Sweeping Reforms

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has dismissed the country's government by signing a decree on its’ resignation. According to the Constitution of Kazakhstan, First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar will temporarily perform the duties of Prime Minister (PM). At the same time, all other ministers will continue to work in the same mode until the head of state approves the composition of the new government. The resignation of former Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov's government underscores a shift in Kazakhstan's political scene. Smailov assumed office on January 11th, 2022, following public discontent that erupted into riots. During his tenure, many events transpired, but the most memorable for the population were serious problems with municipal heating in a number of regions; forest fires in the Kostanay and Abay regions; explosions at mines in the Karaganda region, and the earthquake in Almaty. All this evoked plenty of criticism regarding the composition of the government. While the precise reasons behind the resignation remain undisclosed, it serves to highlight the dynamic nature of politics in Kazakhstan. Further details, including the process of this transition and potential candidates for the roles vacated, are expected in the next two days following an extended meeting of the government with the participation of Tokayev. Prior to the government’s resignation, Tokayev had increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with progress in addressing socioeconomic issues and stagnation in general. Over the past two years, Tokayev has implemented sweeping reforms aimed at democratizing the country and breaking up economic monopolies. "In Kazakhstan and in general, a change of government is perceived as a crisis phenomenon, but it is by no means a crisis phenomenon here,” said Director of the Eurasian Monitoring Center, Alibek Tazhibayev. “One should proceed from the fact that the economic and political situation is changing. Therefore, we can say that this government, which acted under the leadership of Alikhan Smailov for more than two years, coped with their key tasks. They had the main goal of passing deep-rooted reforms, holding a referendum, launching the mechanism of democratization, and implementing the concept of a 'Listening State'." In a post on his Facebook account, Smailov expressed his "gratitude to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for his trust in heading the Kazakh government in such a difficult time. These two years were a turning point for the society," he stated.

The Global Family: How Would-Be Parents From Abroad Adopt Kazakhstani Children

Children from Kazakhstan are mainly adopted by citizens of European countries, the USA and Canada, according to the Ministry of Education, which recently discussed some of the changing trends in the adoption of children from Kazakhstan. There are two types of adoption procedure in the country: adoption by citizens of Kazakhstan or adoption by citizens of other countries. The number of Kazakh children adopted by foreign citizens has decreased significantly over the last decade -- from 2013 to 2023 only 158 Kazakh children were adopted abroad, compared with 8,805 children in the period from 1999 to 2011. Since 2013 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has controlled the process of foreign families adopting children from Kazakhstan. The Ministry of Education emphasizes that foreign citizens can only adopt a child if the chance to adopt them was refused by relatives who are citizens of Kazakhstan -- or if the child does not have any relatives. The ministry also explained that adoption of children by foreign nationals is only permitted to citizens of a country that has child-protection legislation that is on par with that in Kazakhstan. Children adopted by foreign citizens are registered with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs before leaving Kazakhstan.

Uzbekistan Bans Mining Non-Metallic Materials In Rivers

From May 1st Uzbekistan will introduce a permanent ban on the mining of non-metallic materials in the riverbeds of the Chirchik, Sangzor, Zarafshan, Naryn, Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya rivers. Permits to extract sand and gravel materials from river beds and other water areas will only be granted through the electronic trading platform E-Auksion. This proposal was made jointly by the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change and the Ministry of Mines and Geology, and was approved by president Shavkat Mirziyoyev on January 17th. The boundaries of the areas covered by the ban will be determined by the Cabinet of Ministers. During the moratorium period there will be a tenfold increase in the fines imposed for environmental damage caused to these areas as a result of illegal extraction. These fines will be directed to the country's ecological fund. The ban prohibits the extraction of sand and gravel materials in river beds and other water areas, as well as other extraction works on other deposits located in mountainous or foothill (land) areas.