Who Should Mediate between Russia and Ukraine? Kazakhstan Could Be the Best Option
As Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to rage, there is little disagreement in the international community that the ever-rising human and material costs make it imperative to find a quick solution to the crisis. There is less agreement on how to achieve this. To swiftly reach a workable peace, the international community and the two fighting sides will need to put their faith in mediation efforts by a trusted, neutral leader. While face-to-face negotiations between representatives from the two countries began in Belarussia and are domiciled in Turkey for the time being, the road to peace remains unclear. Even if a ceasefire is agreed, its sustainability will depend on the demarcation of contested lands, guarantees for sovereignty and security, and helping those dislocated by the conflict. So far, Turkey, Israel and Kazakhstan are among the countries that have declared willingness to mediate negotiations between the sides. Israel maintains good diplomatic ties with both Russia and Ukraine. It also has the trust of the U.S. and other NATO members. It remains neutral in the conflict by furnishing only humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and not weapons systems. As for Turkey, it is a NATO member with profound economic ties to Russia. However, its offer to arbitrate comes against the backdrop of supplying Ukraine with its Bayraktar its TB2 drones, which continue to relentlessly smash Russian tanks, personnel carriers, and supply trucks. Of the three countries, Kazakhstan has perhaps the deepest-rooted interests in a swift and peaceful end to the conflict. Its president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has announced willingness to help: “We call on both states to find a common ground and reach agreements”, he declared at a recent congress of the ruling party Amanat, adding, “For its part, Kazakhstan is ready to provide all possible assistance, including mediation services if necessary”. There are four main reasons that explain why Kazakhstan is likely the best candidate to serve as a mediator: It is highly motivated economically; its foreign-policy framework has positioned it well for such a role; its leadership is unique in terms of its diplomatic prowess; and finally, its bilateral understandings with Ukraine and Russia will it help achieve a successful result. Economic motivation After Ukraine and Russia, from an economic perspective, Kazakhstan is probably the only other country with as great a need for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Sharing a 7,644-kilometre border with Russia, Kazakhstan has suffered significant (albeit for now not overwhelming) collateral damage in its economy. Crippling trade sanctions and severed trade routes have sunk its national currency, the tenge, by 20 per cent. Two-thirds of its oil exports have been throttled at the Russian leg of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Businesses around the world are de-risking supply chains and might write off swathes of Kazakhstan businesses in fear of possible unspecified ties to sanctioned Russian entities. Given these real reasons, neither Ukraine nor Russia would question Kazakhstan’s earnestness for an expeditious and peaceful resolution. Some observers suspect that Putin might seek to mitigate the impact of sanctions...
