Progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks would reverberate across Central Asia, which borders southern Russia and balances pressures from Moscow and the West. A settlement would ease sanctions frictions, steady remittances, and lower compliance risks for banks. Shippers could rely more on north–south routes and the Middle Corridor. Energy exporters — Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan — would see clearer prices and safer outlets. Normalized Black Sea grain flows and insurance costs would allow governments to pivot from crisis management to reforms and investment.
Without a settlement, uncertainty would persist. Sanctions would keep impeding trade and finance, and banks would stay cautious on cross-border flows. Logistics would remain fragmented and costly. Energy and food price volatility could strain budgets. Higher risk premia would delay transit projects and prolong shortages in energy, metals, and other inputs.
