C5+1 Summit

The Deal Zone: U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick Unveils Economic Agreements with Central Asia at C5+1 Summit

WASHINGTON, D.C. — November 2025 — The United States and Central Asian nations announced a record series of trade and investment agreements at the 10th-anniversary C5+1 Summit, signaling a new phase of cooperation in energy, infrastructure, technology, and artificial intelligence. The high-profile event at the Department of Commerce brought together ministers, ambassadors, and business leaders from across the region. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said the initiatives reflect Washington’s renewed commitment to long-term regional growth and partnership. “We’re advancing a clear strategy, which is reciprocal trade and strategic investment … the Department of Commerce is helping America and Central Asian firms connect, invest and grow together.” On digital investment, Lutnick said: “If you want to invest in digital, you know, America is going to be open for business. We are open for our great allies to be able to buy our best chips and have them in country, which is a complete change from the prior Biden administration. So if the country has the proper set of digital laws, we will then encourage our great companies to invest digitally in the C5+1 and grow digitally there.” He also described the C5+1 as central to U.S. engagement: “The C5+1 platform is a cornerstone of that strategy" and "We’re proud to see your new initiatives taking shape for energy diversification, logistics modernization, [and] emerging partnerships across the trans Caspian corridor.” The event then moved into the “Deal Zone,” where close to twenty agreements across the region were announced. The Times of Central Asia attended the ceremony and reports below the deals as they were introduced on stage. “These are not abstract projects. They are real investments, creating real jobs, extending connectivity and strengthening resilience from the Caspian all the way to California.” The deals, as announced in sequence during the session, are listed below.   Kazakhstan:

• Boeing with Air Astana Airlines — Purchase of up to 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, opening new North American routes representing Air Astana’s historical largest order.
• Cove Capital with the Government of Kazkhstan — $1 billion investment to develop the largest known untapped tungsten deposit in the world valued at more than $80 billion.
• Leidos with KazAero — Modernization of national air-traffic-control systems using Skyline X ATMS technology as well as to facilitate the deployment, testing and training of staff of all their air traffic control centers.
• John Deere and the Government of Kazakhstan — $3–5 billion agricultural-equipment agreement. 60% involves tractors and seeding equipment manufactured in Iowa, Illinois, and North Dakota.
• Citigroup with KTZ Locomotives + U.S. EXIM Bank — $1.6 billion export-credit financing for locomotive procurement. This was a follow up to the agreement signed at the recent United National General Assembly meeting, the largest ever locomotive deal in the history of the world.
• Colorado School of Mines, Education Testing Service, Arizona State University with the Kazakhstan Ministry of Science and Higher Education — Supporting the establishment of a university. The project will substantially contribute to the development of professional engineers and geoscientists with critical minerals expertise in both the United States and Kazakhstan.
• Beeline Kazakhstan with Starlink — The world’s first national direct-to-cell connectivity program, extending satellite coverage to remote regions not covered by terrestrial networks.
• Nvidia, OpenAI, and Freedom Holding Corp and Ministry of Digital Development — An MOU $2 billion advanced AI-chip procurement agreement.
• National Investment Corporation of Kazakhstan with Brookfield Asset Management, Cerberus Capital Management , and Ashmore Investment Advisors— Formation of three cooperation agreements for private-equity partnerships.

  Kyrgyzstan

• All American Rail Group (Texas) with the Kyrgyz Republic — Rail construction and engineering, operation, maintenance and eventually transfer national and regional railway infrastructure linking Kyrgyzstan to the Trans-Caspian corridor.
• Citigroup with Aiyl Bank — MOU cooperation agreement.
• Oppenheimer & Co. with Aiyl Bank — Underwriting of a $300 million five-year senior unsecured bond, following its earlier $700 million sovereign bond issuance.

  Tajikistan:

• Somon Air with Boeing — Commitment for order for its largest ever order of up to 4 Boeing 787s and 10 737 MAX jets, the airline’s first wide-body purchase to launch new intercontinental routes from Tajikstan.
• Transparent Earth LLC with Tajik company Avesto Group— $30 million MOU to jointly develop, build and operate a national digital-governance platform.
• Sixth Grain Inc. with Marmari Tajikistan — Preliminary agreement for development and implementation of a $2.43 million digital platform for Marmari’s agricultural lands.
• Perplexity AI — Joining the Central Asia AI Consortium, based in Tajikistan’s planned the world’s first AI Free Zone to expand its service across all of Central Asia and derive multimillion annual recurring revenue from the region.
• Super Micro (California) with The Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of Tajikistan (MINTECH) — MOU for the deployment of a sovereign green AI computing infrastructure powered by 1 GW of hydropower by 2030.
• Oppenheimer & Co. with Ministry of Industry — An MOU (details not discussed)

  Uzbekistan:

• Uzbekistan Airways with Boeing — ill sign the final order of eight additional 787 Dreamliners, bringing their total book to 22 wide body jets which will help build Uzbekistan Airways growth as they expand into more international markets.
• John Deere × Government of Uzbekistan — $300 million agricultural-machinery agreement, half produced in the U.S.

  Turkmenistan Although no new deals were signed, Turkmenistan was recognized as an active C5 partner, with future collaboration expected in energy and infrastructure.   A New Phase for the C5+1 Partnership In his closing remarks, Under Secretary of Commerce William Kimmitt said the day’s announcements were “a clear demonstration of the United States commitment to deepening economic ties with our Central Asian partners, in a preview of the even stronger cooperation that lies ahead in trade, investment and innovation.” He commented on the developments of the day, noting that “the Department of Commerce is at the front line in advancing U.S. commercial interests and supporting American businesses in global markets” and that success would depend on “close coordination across the U.S. government, including with the State Department, the U.S. Trade Representative, the U.S. Export-Import Bank, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and many other critical agencies.” He emphasized that this coordination is key to expanding opportunities for American companies, underscoring the importance of “connecting them with committed partners across the globe who share our belief in innovation, transparency and long term growth.” Kimmitt added that, through the C5+1 platform, the United States will “continue to deepen technical collaboration, advance energy diversification and expand digital transformation, all supporting greater regional stability and prosperity.” He emphasized that “the United States looks forward to remaining the partner of choice for the C5 nations and supporting innovation driven growth that strengthens Central Asia’s prosperity, connectivity and global competitiveness.”

C5+1 Summit

C5+1: Diplomats and Executives Define Investment Path

Before the historic White House meetings on November 6 between President Trump and the five Central Asian presidents, U.S. and regional diplomats and business leaders met at the Kennedy Center on the occasion of the C5+1 Business Forum, hosted by the U.S. Department of State, to launch a new chapter of cooperation, with a focus on strengthening commercial and investment ties in energy, finance, and manufacturing. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, who moderated the panel discussion, said economic engagement is returning to the center of U.S. foreign policy. “The purpose of foreign policy is to increase the prosperity of the American people by finding opportunities for mutually beneficial economic and commercial interchange,” he said. Executives from Chevron, Citi, Freedom Holding, and Uzbekistan’s UzAvtosanoat described how decades of partnership  had demonstrated the wisdom of making strategic investments in the region. These partnerships continue to reshape  the economic and financial landscape for the better.  Participants highlighted Central Asia’s economic stability, solid reserves, and consistent policies, and were confident in faster growth to be driven by increased capital flows and by regional projects like Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil expansion. Both sides promised to translate diplomacy into dealmaking. Landau further noted that under President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the State Department has elevated commercial diplomacy to a core mission. He stressed that mutual respect, win-win agreements, and consistent engagement are key to driving results. Central Asians have waited decades for this: action, not talk. Two-way trade and investment are now front and center. Chevron Points to Long-Term Energy Investment Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Mike Wirth said the company’s 30-year presence in Kazakhstan remains one of its largest international operations. Chevron was the first major U.S. investor to enter the country after independence and is now the biggest foreign investor. The US$ 48 billion Future Growth Project at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, co-managed by Chevron and 50%-partner Tengizchevroil LLP, is up and running with expansion underway. “Our history is really founded on relationships and trust,” Wirth said. “The most enduring aspect of it (our work) is the respect and love that our American employees have for the culture and people of Kazakhstan.” He said more than 500 Kazakh employees have trained in Chevron operations worldwide, many of whom now hold senior roles in government and industry. Citi Expands Access to Global Capital Citi’s Managing Director Stephanie von Friedeburg outlined the bank’s activities in Central Asia, where it began operations more than three decades ago. Citi now serves about 800 corporate clients across the region, supporting private companies, governments and state-owned enterprises with strategic planning, capital issuance, and risk management services. The bank has arranged Eurobond sales for the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan and handled more than US$40 billion in fundraising for Kazakhstan since 2014. In Uzbekistan, Citi has supported 19 capital-market transactions and advised the government on improving its credit rating. “We help countries understand how rating agencies look at them (and) how to improve their ratings,” von Friedeburg said. “That allows them to borrow at longer tenors and better rates.” She added that investor interest is increasing as regional governments coordinate policies on trade and infrastructure. “For the first time since 1991 these countries have the agency and the desire to work together to change their economic destiny,” she said. Freedom Holding Targets Technology and Finance Links Kazakhstan-based Freedom Holding Corp. Chief Executive Timur Turlov said his company is the only Central Asian financial group listed on Nasdaq and operating under U.S. regulation. The firm runs brokerage, banking, insurance, and consumer-services businesses in twenty-two countries, serving more than eleven million clients. Turlov said Freedom Holding’s expansion has been supported by “progressive economic policies being implemented by the President of Kazakhstan” and by a government which focuses on smart and tangible private-sector development in Kazakhstan and overseas. Turlov aims to deepen ties with U.S. tech and financial firms through various initiatives including a California innovation lab, media partnerships for its Freedom Media streaming service, and equipment purchases from American chipmakers for data-center expansion. “The United States is a country of future opportunities — a country you can trust,” Turlov said. “But to keep that trust and confidence, [partners] have to pay close attention to integrity and compliance.” Uzbekistan’s Auto Industry Shows Manufacturing Growth Bahodirjon Rahmonov, Senior Vice Chairman of Uzbekistan’s automotive group UzAvtosanoat JSC, cited the company’s joint venture with General Motors as one of the region’s longest-running U.S. industrial partnerships. The collaboration has produced more than 4.5 million Chevrolet vehicles for markets across Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the wider Eurasia. Rahmonov said the venture demonstrates how local manufacturing and supply-chain development are compatible and produce long-term development, including stable employment. “We don’t look for quick growth, but focus on sustainable growth,” Rahmonov said. “This has allowed our partnership to create an ecosystem that not only manufactures and delivers Chevrolet vehicles, but also supports long-term growth through localization and resilient supply chains.” He also pointed to regulatory reforms under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev that have improved repatriation of profits and opened Uzbekistan to greater foreign partnerships. Uzautosanoat is a three-tier, vertically integrated company representing over sixty entities—including manufacturers, localization firms, and dealer organizations—covering all sectors of the automotive industry. Infrastructure and Digital Priorities Panelists identified infrastructure, energy, and digital technology as the sectors most likely to attract new investment. Von Friedeburg said transport corridors and renewable-energy projects offer “huge opportunities,” while Turlov highlighted digital finance and telecom development as areas where U.S. expertise can accelerate growth. Landau emphasized that the State Department seeks to support U.S. and Central Asian companies in business development and expanding trade opportunities – a nod to pragmatic engagement and American ingenuity. “These are largely untapped markets,” he said. “Our goal is to turn shared interest into shared prosperity.” The State Department champions U.S. foreign policy while shaping international strategies on economic growth, fair and reciprocal trade, energy, agriculture, and tech. The U.S. will keep building ties with Central Asia, deepening commerce and cooperation, despite risks, market volatility and intense geoeconomic competition. A Market Beyond Diplomacy The discussion emphasized investment and practical cooperation as the main drivers of regional growth, with less focus on creating new policy frameworks. A common underlying theme was to drive growth by investing in not only strategic enterprises but in foundational assets —like skills and infrastructure—and pair them with policies that circulate prosperity on a win-win basis, especially to small businesses. Both the United States and Central Asia are open for business. Economic engagement between the U.S. and Central Asia is maturing toward practical, two-way commercial partnerships. The focus is now on tangible investments that align regional priorities with the strategic interests of all nations involved. The five Central Asian republics — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — have a combined GDP of about $500 billion and a population of more than 80 million. Regional growth is projected to average 5 percent in 2025, supported by higher oil output, investment, and remittance inflows.  

C5+1 Summit

Tokayev Secures $17B in U.S. Deals, Trump Hints at Kazakhstan Visit

The summit between the leaders of the United States and the five countries of Central Asia was the primary focus of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Washington. But even before the summit began, the Kazakh delegation secured a series of high-level meetings with U.S. political leaders and business executives, culminating in the signing of 29 bilateral agreements, valued at approximately $17 billion. Tokayev’s program in Washington began with meetings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Special Representative for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor. Kazakhstan, Tokayev noted, maintains active political ties with the United States at multiple levels, and remains committed to a constructive dialogue to deepen its multifaceted cooperation with Washington. During the meeting, Kazakhstan and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the field of critical minerals. The document was signed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Yersayin Nagaspayev, and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. The agreement took immediate shape: Tau-Ken Samruk, a subsidiary of the sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, and U.S. based Cove Capital agreed to jointly develop tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan’s Karaganda region. The investment is expected to total around $1.1 billion. Preparatory work on a final feasibility study for one of the projects is already underway. Kazakhstan’s tungsten reserves, estimated at 410,000 tons, are among the largest in the world. Tokayev later met with U.S. Representatives Jimmy Panetta, Carol Miller, Bill Huizenga, and Sydney Kamlager-Dove. Tokayev highlighted the role of the U.S. - Kazakhstan Friendship Group, chaired by Panetta, in deepening political dialogue, boosting economic ties, and strengthening bilateral relations. During the meeting, it was noted that the U.S. is one of Kazakhstan’s largest economic partners, accounting for $100 billion in cumulative investment, roughly 80% of all investment in Central Asia. Tokayev invited U.S. lawmakers to visit Kazakhstan to foster further cooperation. A similar invitation was extended to Senator Steve Daines, whom Tokayev described as “a true friend of Kazakhstan.” The senator is set to receive the Order of Dostyk (Friendship), First Class, for his contributions to bilateral relations. The Kazakh president also met with Chevron Chair and CEO Michael Wirth and Chaboy Leiko, President for the CIS and Central Asia at John Deere. Tokayev praised Chevron’s long-standing role in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector, including its projects at the Tengiz and Karachaganak fields. He confirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to ongoing cooperation. John Deere was also lauded for its decision to localize production of agricultural machinery through a partnership with AgromashHolding KZ. Since production began in May, over 290 units have been assembled, with another 100 expected by year’s end. John Deere has signed a $2.5 billion strategic partnership agreement with Kazakhstan to produce at least 3,000 agricultural machines over five years. The agreement includes plans to establish at least three service centers and develop a workforce training system. Separately, Kazakhstan’s national carrier, Air Astana, signed a contract with Boeing for the purchase of up to 15 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft. According to Kazakhstan’s Civil Aviation Committee, the order includes five confirmed aircraft, five options, and five purchase rights, making it the largest order in the airline’s history. The order complements a prior agreement for three Dreamliners scheduled for delivery in 2026-2027, bringing the total to 18 aircraft with a combined catalog value of $7 billion. During his visit, Tokayev also gave interviews to prominent U.S. outlets, including The Washington Post and The New York Times. Topics included U.S.- Kazakh relations, President Donald Trump’s policy agenda, global geopolitics, and the situation in Ukraine. [caption id="attachment_38902" align="alignnone" width="300"] @Aqorda[/caption] Ahead of the Central Asia-U.S. summit, Tokayev held a one-on-one meeting with Trump. He expressed Kazakhstan’s support for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) initiative, which Tokayev said could bolster global development. Trump reaffirmed U.S. support for a broad, strategic partnership with Kazakhstan. The presidents also discussed key international issues, followed by a joint phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the Oval Office. During the call, Kazakhstan announced its intent to join the Abraham Accords. Trump praised the decision, calling it a significant step forward. “This is an important step in building bridges across the globe,” Trump said. “More countries are embracing the path of peace and prosperity through my Abraham Accords.” At the Central Asia-U.S. Summit, Tokayev thanked Trump for hosting the historic event at the White House and said the C5+1 summit signals a new era of U.S.-Central Asia cooperation. He highlighted that the potential for economic collaboration between the U.S. and Kazakhstan in sectors such as energy, critical minerals, industry, transport, finance, artificial intelligence, and education exceeds half a trillion dollars. Tokayev called on U.S. companies to seize the “unique opportunities” emerging in Kazakhstan and assured investors of his personal support. During the summit, journalists asked Trump whether he would become the first U.S. president to visit Kazakhstan. “I don’t rule out that possibility,” Trump responded. “You never know what will happen in a year. Your country has tremendous natural resources, and you have an outstanding president.”

Digital Technologies

Kazakhstan Advances Digital Transformation with U.S. Partnerships

Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, is rapidly positioning itself as a regional leader in digital transformation. Increasingly, United States partners no longer view Kazakhstan solely as a source of natural resources. Instead, future cooperation is expected to expand into digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI).

Advances in Digitalization

In October, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its digital ambitions with a major technological breakthrough. Kaspi, the country’s leading fintech firm and a systemically important bank, launched Kaspi Alaqan, a palm-based payment system that requires no phone, card, or internet connection.

The service will debut in December 2025 through dedicated ATMs in Almaty before expanding nationwide. Analysts say the innovation puts Kaspi on par with Amazon One and China’s WeChat, highlighting Kazakhstan’s readiness to adopt cutting-edge global technologies.

Traditionally associated with oil, gas, and uranium, Kazakhstan is now investing heavily in becoming Central Asia’s digital hub, an evolution that presents strategic opportunities for the U.S. Partnerships in digital governance, AI, and innovation ecosystems align closely with Washington vision for expanded cooperation in Eurasia.

According to the United Nations, Kazakhstan ranked 24th globally in digital development as of June 2025, placing in the top 10 for online public services. Services such as school enrollment, vehicle registration, and passport issuance have been fully digitized, requiring minimal citizen effort. In some cases, the process is faster than in many Western countries.

Kazakhstan’s government aims to double its GDP to $450 billion by 2029, a target that will require more than a 2.5-fold increase in investment. Digital technologies are central to this strategy.

To manage this transformation, a new Investment Board was established in October 2025 to oversee large-scale projects and determine economic priorities.

In September, the Mazhilis (lower house of parliament) passed a landmark law on artificial intelligence. Deputies highlighted fairness, transparency, and the protection of personal data as key legal principles.

The newly launched National Artificial Intelligence Platform hosts over 100 AI agents that support e-government functions and expand access to technology. Additionally, in July, Kazakhstan introduced a supercomputer powered by NVIDIA H200 GPUs. With performance reaching 2 exaflops (FP8), it is the most powerful computing system in Central Asia.

Startups, universities, and research centers now have access to this infrastructure. The language models KazLLM and Alem LLM have also been introduced, capable of generating content in Kazakh, Russian, English, and Turkish.

For the U.S., Kazakhstan’s AI ecosystem offers a valuable partner for collaborative research, ethical framework development, and State Department–supported initiatives using AI for sustainable development.

Investing in the Future

U.S.–Kazakhstan cooperation in digital innovation is already accelerating. In September, Amazon announced a $200 million investment in Kazakhstan’s internet infrastructure. A distribution agreement with Kazakhtelecom will bring Amazon’s Kuiper satellite network to the republic, improving connectivity and driving economic growth.

Additionally, 24 startups from Central Eurasia have joined U.S. accelerator programs such as AlchemistX and Silicon Valley Residency. These initiatives, launched in September in Palo Alto, connect regional teams with U.S. venture capital and technology ecosystems.

Kazakhstan is also advancing blockchain infrastructure. Astana recently launched the Solana Economic Zone, the first in Central Asia based on a blockchain platform. In partnership with the Solana Foundation, the government plans to offer blockchain-focused education and attract global Web3 companies. Programs implemented with Forma will support international startups.

For U.S. firms seeking a regulated Web3 environment, the Solana Economic Zone could serve as a sandbox for innovation in emerging markets.

Fostering Education

Kazakhstan is investing in education to build a future-ready workforce. At the Alem.ai Center in Astana, teenagers learn animation, 3D design, and generative AI through the TUMO creative program. Older students participate in Tomorrow School, a programming initiative.

Launched this year, the AI-Sana program aims to train 650,000 students—undergraduate, master’s, and doctoral—in artificial intelligence skills. The initiative seeks to develop research and entrepreneurial teams to deploy AI across key economic sectors.

Benefits for Washington

Kazakhstan’s digital transformation aligns with U.S. strategic objectives: diversifying supply chains, promoting open data flows, and providing alternatives to authoritarian digital governance models.

The country’s AI and digital sectors offer Washington a springboard for joint research, secure satellite infrastructure investment, and venture collaboration with American accelerators. This shift requires not massive U.S. funding, but broader strategic recognition of Kazakhstan and Central Asia as more than resource suppliers. In the coming years, the region could emerge as a 21st-century model for digital modernization on a global scale.

C5+1 Summit

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Plans Visit to Central Asia in 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Wednesday his intention to visit all five Central Asian countries in 2026. Rubio made the statement during a meeting with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The visit is part of a broader diplomatic initiative by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to strengthen ties with the resource-rich region. Today, the presidents of the five Central Asian republics, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (Kazakhstan), Sadyr Japarov (Kyrgyzstan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), Serdar Berdimuhamedov (Turkmenistan), and Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), are scheduled to meet with President Trump in Washington. The summit is expected to focus on cooperation in the extraction of rare earth elements and other natural resources in Central Asia. Rubio emphasized the alignment of U.S. and Central Asian interests in promoting responsible and sustainable development of the extractive sector. “You are seeking to use the resources that God has blessed your countries with to create responsible development and diversify your economies,” he said at a reception hosted by the State Department. “I personally intend to visit in the coming year. All five [countries], so I know it would probably be a week-long trip. So we’ve got to work on that and make that happen together.” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau stated that the invitation extended to Central Asian leaders is part of President Trump’s personal initiative to deepen engagement with the region. He highlighted broad opportunities for cooperation in business, investment, and strategic partnerships. Also speaking at the reception, Republican Senator James Risch said he intends to introduce legislation to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a Cold War-era law that restricts U.S. trade with non-market economies.

Central Asia-U.S. Summit

Deals, Not Declarations: U.S.–Central Asia Cooperation at Summit Crossroads

A landmark summit between the United States and the five Central Asian republics is scheduled for November 6 in Washington, D.C., bringing together the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It will be the second leaders-level C5+1 meeting with a U.S. president—the first took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in 2023—and the first time the format is hosted in the U.S. capital. The gathering also marks the 10th anniversary of the C5+1 diplomatic platform that connects Central Asia with Washington. The summit comes at a pivotal moment geopolitically; Russia remains consumed by its war in Ukraine, whilst China continues to expand its Belt and Road footprint across Eurasia. As the region’s strategic importance grows, both the United States and the Central Asian states see an opportunity to recalibrate their relationships, each approaching the meeting with distinct priorities and expectations. Washington’s Agenda: Critical Minerals and Connectivity For the United States, this summit is about converting diplomatic engagement into tangible deliverables. Officials want to see results in three main areas: critical minerals, regional connectivity, and security coordination. Congress and the administration view the region’s reserves of antimony, tungsten, uranium, and rare earth elements as essential to securing U.S. supply chains. During his October 2025 visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau emphasized expanding cooperation on critical minerals and trade diversification. The Trump administration has prioritized these resources as part of a broader effort to reduce dependence on China. Trade routes are also in focus. The U.S. supports the Middle Corridor, a trans-Caspian route that links Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. Infrastructure investments that bypass Russia are strategically important, and Washington wants to help harmonize customs and logistics to make that corridor more viable. These priorities form part of a wider push to anchor the region in transparent, market-based supply chains that connect Central Asia more directly with Western markets. Kazakhstan: Trade Normalization and Resource Investment Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan is expected to push for permanent normal trade relations with the U.S. The country still faces Cold War-era restrictions under the Jackson-Vanik amendment – as do Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan - with Astana long having viewed its repeal as a key milestone. That push has taken on new importance after Washington imposed a 25% tariff on Kazakh imports in mid-2025 - though Kazakh exports were exempted shortly thereafter - a move viewed by officials in Astana as inconsistent with efforts to expand economic cooperation. Kazakhstan is also looking to the U.S. for support in developing its mineral wealth. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s government is actively mapping new rare earth deposits, and Washington has recently backed a private American bid to reopen Kazakhstan’s long-idle tungsten mine at Upper Kairakty, underscoring growing U.S. interest in Central Asia’s critical minerals sector. The two sides are also expanding industrial ties: in September 2025, Astana signed a $4.2 billion deal with U.S. rail manufacturer Wabtec to modernize Kazakhstan’s locomotive fleet and develop regional transport corridors connecting Central Asia to Europe via the Caucasus. Kazakhstan hopes these agreements will attract further American investment and help it position itself as a reliable partner in critical minerals supply chains. At the same time, officials are likely to raise concerns about export license delays that have affected imports of American technology. Streamlining those procedures is a priority as Kazakhstan looks to modernize its industries. Uzbekistan: Economic Reform and Tech Access Uzbekistan enters the summit with strong momentum. Since 2016, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has embarked on a sweeping reform agenda, liberalizing trade, opening markets, and courting foreign investment after decades of economic isolation. Tashkent is now seeking deeper U.S. engagement in strategic sectors such as energy, advanced manufacturing, and information technology. American firms have already committed billions of dollars to Uzbek projects, and Tashkent expects this trend to intensify. One concrete goal is improved access to U.S. technology - Uzbek officials have lobbied Washington to streamline export-control procedures that have delayed high-tech imports. The summit may provide the platform to advance those regulatory changes. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, deals signed during Mirziyoyev’s recent visit to New York included major contracts with firms such as Boeing and a proposed infrastructure partnership with BlackRock, signaling Tashkent’s intent to follow a multi-vector foreign policy. Connectivity is also high on the agenda. Uzbekistan is pushing for expanded trade corridors to Europe and South Asia. With its youthful population and growing tech sector, Uzbekistan is also seeking extended educational and professional exchanges with the U.S. These aims dovetail with Washington’s stated broader agenda of promoting regional integration and economic resilience within the C5+1 framework. Kyrgyzstan: Infrastructure and Stability Kyrgyzstan’s economy continues to expand, but high inflation, debt pressure, and dependence on unstable remittances leave it exposed to external shocks. Against this backdrop, Bishkek could seek U.S. support for infrastructure and development financing. President Sadyr Japarov’s government wants to improve trade flows and cross-border logistics, especially along the corridor linking Bishkek to Almaty. A smoother Ak-Jol/Korday border crossing would directly benefit Kyrgyz exporters. Hydropower remains one of Kyrgyzstan’s strongest prospects for cooperation with the United States. The country generates more than 90% of its electricity from water, but continues to face chronic shortages due to aging infrastructure and seasonal imbalances. Bishkek may therefore look for U.S. investment and technical expertise to help modernize key facilities, including the Toktogul and Kambarata hydropower plants, and expand regional power exports. According to the U.S. State Department, “The Kyrgyz Republic’s abundant hydropower resources offer opportunities for investment in energy production and regional electricity exports.” Although Kyrgyzstan remains deeply integrated with Russia through labor migration and trade, it is quietly pursuing a more balanced foreign policy. Even limited U.S. financing or technical partnerships announced at the summit would help Bishkek demonstrate its commitment to multi-vector diplomacy while addressing pressing development needs at home. Tajikistan: Security and Energy Tajikistan enters the summit with clear security and development priorities. Sharing a 1,300-kilometer border with Afghanistan, it faces persistent threats from cross-border trafficking and the Islamic State Khorasan group. Dushanbe could seek renewed U.S. assistance for border surveillance and counter-terrorism training, programs that previously formed the core of bilateral security cooperation but have received less emphasis in recent years. The Tajik government has repeatedly warned that instability in northern Afghanistan could spill into its territory. Economic interests are just as pressing. Tajikistan is one of the world’s leading producers of antimony, a critical mineral used in batteries and semiconductors, and is also promoting lithium and uranium to signal broader mining-sector appeal. Officials could seek to attract U.S. investment to modernize extraction and processing facilities that still rely on Soviet-era technology. They also want financing to complete the massive Rogun hydropower dam on the Vakhsh River, a flagship project that could turn Tajikistan into a net electricity exporter once fully operational. Though Tajikistan remains closely tied to Russia through remittances and security pacts, President Emomali Rahmon is cautiously diversifying partnerships. The C5+1 summit offers Rahmon a rare opportunity to expand economic cooperation and reaffirm Tajikistan’s relevance in regional diplomacy beyond Moscow’s orbit. Turkmenistan: Gas Exports and Quiet Diplomacy Turkmenistan remains the most opaque participant at the summit. The country’s official policy of neutrality has long kept it at arm’s length from most multilateral initiatives, yet President Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s decision to attend signals an interest in new energy opportunities. Natural gas dominates Turkmenistan’s economy, with more than 80% of exports going to China through existing pipeline routes. Ashgabat has periodically revived discussions of a Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline linking its fields to Azerbaijan and onward to European markets, a project Washington previously supported for decades as part of efforts to diversify Europe’s supply. As reported by The Times of Central Asia, renewed European demand for non-Russian gas and improved Caspian infrastructure could make the idea politically feasible again. The summit may also offer Ashgabat an opportunity to expand engagement beyond energy. Turkmenistan and the United States have recently begun exploring cooperation in digital connectivity and infrastructure, including plans for a Trans-Caspian fiber-optic link that would reroute regional internet traffic away from Russian networks. Even a modest U.S. statement endorsing feasibility studies or financing options would be seen in Ashgabat as a diplomatic success. Beyond Symbolism Each Central Asian country is looking for something different, but they share one goal: expanding their options. With Russia under sanctions and China increasing its dominance, the region is eager to avoid overdependence. The U.S. also has something to prove, having lost strategic leverage in Central Asia after withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2021. Now, Washington may want to show that it can offer value beyond security cooperation. If the summit delivers concrete outcomes - such as investment deals, new energy or transport initiatives, or even just a permanent forum for technical talks - it could mark a new phase in U.S. relations with countries that are no longer passive players in geopolitics but are actively asserting their agency, balancing partners, and seeking the best deals. Whether Washington can deliver will shape how Central Asia defines its future partnerships and whether the C5+1 becomes a serious diplomatic platform.

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Kazakhstan Strengthens Role as U.S. Key Trade Partner in Central Asia

Kazakhstan has emerged as the United States’ primary economic partner in Central Asia, accounting for the vast majority of regional exports to the U.S. and serving as the leading destination for American imports, according to Finprom.kz. While Central Asia’s share of total U.S. trade remains small, Kazakhstan’s role within the region is increasingly dominant. Kazakhstan Accounts for Over 96% of Central Asia’s U.S. Exports In 2024, Kazakhstan was responsible for 96.7% of Central Asia’s exports to the United States, totaling approximately $2.4 billion out of a regional total of $2.5 billion. Uzbekistan, the next largest exporter, contributed just $44.4 million. The trend is similar for U.S. goods entering the region. Kazakhstan imported $1.1 billion worth of U.S. goods in 2024, or 62.3% of all American exports to Central Asia. Uzbekistan followed with $380.8 million, while Turkmenistan and Tajikistan imported $82.2 million and $56.8 million, respectively.

Despite this strong bilateral exchange, Central Asia remains a small player in U.S. global trade. In 2024, the U.S. recorded $3.27 trillion in goods imports and $2.06 trillion in exports, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

Even so, U.S.–Kazakhstan trade has grown meaningfully in recent years. Between 2019 and 2024, the U.S. share of Kazakhstan’s total trade rose from 2.3%  to around 3%. Bilateral trade peaked in 2024 at $4.2 billion, the highest level in six years, with U.S. exports to Kazakhstan accounting for 53.2% of the total.

Trade Growth and 2025 Downturn That growth slowed sharply in 2025. From January to August, total trade between the two countries fell to $2.1 billion, a 25.8% drop compared to the same period in 2024. Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. accounted for much of the decline, falling to $749.7 million in the first nine months of the year - about half the level recorded the previous year. Oil and oil products saw the steepest drop, falling 3.5 times to $269.1 million. Exports of uranium, silver, ferroalloys, tantalum, and titanium also declined, though these remain important categories.

By contrast, U.S. exports to Kazakhstan remained relatively stable. Goods shipments fell just 4.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $1.7 billion from January through September. U.S. exports to Kazakhstan continue to consist primarily of high-value manufactured goods, including vehicles, aircraft, agricultural machinery, computers, telecommunications equipment, and medical devices. Pharmaceuticals stood out in 2025, with American shipments of medicines and vaccines more than doubling to $249.3 million in the first nine months of the year.

Investment and Business Cooperation Deepen Alongside trade, investment, and business cooperation between the two countries is also deepening. According to the Kazakh Prime Minister’s office, more than 600 companies with U.S. capital were operating in the country as of late 2025 – a large increase over the previous year. The number of Kazakh-American joint ventures rose by 5.6% over the same period. U.S. companies are active in a range of sectors, including IT, manufacturing, education, consulting, and trade.

While the United States is not among Kazakhstan’s top trading partners by volume, the relationship is seen as strategically important. Amid global volatility, U.S. firms have not scaled back operations in Kazakhstan. On the contrary, they have expanded their presence, signaling long-term confidence in the country’s economic stability and policy direction.

Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift from lower- to upper-middle-income status and the economic mass needed for regional influence. This requires not only expanding its industrial and financial base to compete as a producer, but also raising domestic purchasing power to emerge as a significant consumer market, turning its geographic position into real economic power. Turkmenistan possesses vast gas wealth but remains constrained by autarkic economic management and an overreliance on exports to China. Currency controls, limited transparency, and minimal diversification inhibit the translation of resource income into sustainable influence. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain aid- and remittance-dependent economies, with narrow industrial bases and persistent external vulnerabilities. Remittances from migrant labor account for up to half of their GDP, cushioning fiscal shortfalls but deepening reliance on Russia, China, and international lenders. Despite participation in regional initiatives, their structural dependence restricts their ability to shape economic outcomes independently. Overall, Central Asia exhibits a two-tier economic order: Kazakhstan as a mature middle power, Uzbekistan as a transitional aspirant, and the remaining states as externally conditioned economies with limited strategic leverage.

Central Asian Economic Power Comparison 

Criterion	Kazakhstan	Uzbekistan	Turkmenistan	Kyrgyzstan	Tajikistan
1. GDP Size & Growth (2024 nominal values-IMF & World Bank)	High – ~US $250 B; ˜ 4.2 % growth; ~US $12,700 per capita.	Medium–High – ~US $120 B; ˜ 5.6 % growth; ~US $3,300 per capita.	Medium–Low – ~US $85 B (opaque); ˜ 3 % growth (est.); ~US $4,600 per capita (likely overstated).	Low – ~US $14 B; ˜ 4.3 % growth; ~US $1,900 per capita.	Low – ~US $12 B; ˜ 7 % growth; ~US $1,200 per capita.
2. Diversification	Medium–High – Energy and resource led trade in... Corridor; diversified partners in the EU, Türkiye, and China.	Medium–Low – trade in gold, energy, textiles, ...tan and China; key partners include Russia, China, and the EU.	Low – Gas-centric, state-dominated economy w...inimal diversification and limited private sector development.	Low – Gold-dependent, remittance-driven economy with limited industrial base and modest diversification.	Low – Remittance-led, hydro- and aluminum-depe...conomy with limited diversification and weak industrial base.
3. Trade Integration	High – WTO & EAEU member; energy- and resource...iversified partners incude Russia, China, the EU, and Türkiye.	Medium–Low – non-WTO, non-EAEU; trade in gold,...es, and autos; key partners include Russia, China, and the EU.	Low – non-WTO, non-EAEU; State-controlled; exports to China & Russia dominate; weak transit role.	Medium – WTO & EAEU member; trade in gold and re-exports; high dependence on Russia and China.	Low – WTO member; limited export base; transit and remittances heavy; reliance on Russia/China.
4. Investment & FDI Attractiveness	Medium–High – Strong FDI in energy, mining, renewables; improving business climate; regional hub potential.	Medium – Reform improving climate; FDI in energy, gold, textiles, autos; privatization agenda ongoing.	Low – Opaque governance; limited private sector; low FDI beyond gas; heavy state control.	Low – Smaller market and instability; reliance on remittances; limited FDI beyond gold and services.	Low – Limited FDI; infrastructure and energy projects led by China and IFIs; weak private sector.
5. Infrastructure & Connectivity	High – Rail/road pipelines; Caspian ports; TTC leadership; good logistics performance by regional standards.	Medium – Landlocked; improving roads/rail; growing logistics with China–Europe corridors.	Medium–Low – Gas pipeline infrastructure; port of Turkmenbashi; low integration with neighbors.	Low – Limited infrastructure; mountainous constraints; reliant on crossings via Kazakhstan/China.	Low – Mountainous; limited road/rail; dependence on regional corridors; hydropower assets.
Economic Power Summary	🟩 Strong (middle power)	🟨 Reforming emerging power	🟧 Resource-dependent / narrow-based economy	🟥 Small, remittance- and aid-dependent economy	🟥 Low-income, remittance-dependent economy

Diplomatic & Regional Influence Kazakhstan remains the most diplomatically influential state in Central Asia, pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy that balances relations with Russia, China, the United States, the European Union, and the Islamic world. Astana positions itself as a regional stabilizer and neutral convener, hosting high-profile platforms such as the Astana International Forum and the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions, and serving as a venue for Russia–Ukraine and Syria peace talks. Through leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Kazakhstan has become the region’s diplomatic anchor and a bridge between Europe and Asia. Additionally, it has emerged as a pan-Asian educational hub, using world-class universities and international partnerships to extend its soft-power reach across the continent. Uzbekistan, under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has become a rising diplomatic power, advancing a reformist foreign policy centered on economic integration, water and energy diplomacy, and regional cooperation. Tashkent’s emphasis on intra-Central Asian summits and Afghanistan engagement has made it a leading advocate of pragmatic regionalism. Its expanding soft-power diplomacy—through cultural, educational, and developmental initiatives—complements Kazakhstan’s leadership, forming a cooperative dual-core in regional diplomacy. Turkmenistan, adhering to its policy of positive neutrality, engages selectively through energy and transit diplomacy, leveraging hydrocarbon exports and pipeline routes to maintain relevance with China, Iran, and the Caspian states. Its diplomacy remains transactional and limited to issue-specific cooperation, avoiding deep institutional commitments. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan actively participate in multilateral frameworks such as the SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), but wield limited diplomatic influence due to domestic challenges and reliance on external partners. Kyrgyzstan’s civic diplomacy and Tajikistan’s water security advocacy provide niche influence, though persistent border disputes and political volatility constrain their broader regional roles.

Central Asian Diplomatic Influence Comparison

Criterion	Kazakhstan	Uzbekistan	Turkmenistan	Kyrgyzstan	Tajikistan
1. Multilateral Engagement	High – Active in UN, SCO, CICA; hosted OSCE summit; mediates between Russia/West; TTC leadership.	Medium–High – Active in SCO, OTS (Türkic states), engaging with EU; regional convenings in Samarkand/Tashkent.	Low – “Positive Neutrality”; limited multilateral role; UN messaging but little practical engagement.	Medium – Engages in CSTO, EAEU, SCO; limited convening power; reliant on Russian security umbrella.	Medium – Active in CSTO, SCO; focus on security/development; limited convening power.
2. Regional Leadership & Convening	High – Hosts TTC, Astana diplomacy; key energy transit and policy hub; space/cosmodrome legacy.	Medium–High – Regional initiatives under Mirziyoyev; summits with neighbors; reform image boosts soft power.	Low – Limited regional convening; border/trade frictions; minimal soft power.	Low – Limited convening capacity; domestic politics distract; occasional bilateral diplomacy.	Low – Narrow security focus; reliance on Russia/CSTO; limited convening role.
3. External Partnerships	High – Balances Russia, China, West, Türkiye; invests in EU energy security; US partnership.	Medium–High – Strengthening ties with EU/US/Japan; deepening China; pragmatic Russia ties.	Medium–Low – China energy dependence; limited beyond gas; cautious with Russia/Iran.	Medium–Low – Reliant on Russia; China loans; limited Western ties.	Medium–Low – Reliant on Russia for security; China for infrastructure; modest Western engagement.
4. Soft Power & Global Perception	Medium–High – Education exchanges, Expo legacy, cultural diplomacy; image of pragmatic stability.	Medium – Reform branding improves image; tourism/culture growing; human rights concerns persist.	Low – Insular state; limited exchanges; weak international image.	Medium–Low – Civil society visibility but political instability; modest culture/tourism appeal.	Low – Security/state control image; limited cultural reach; tourism potential underused.
5. Conflict Mediation/Border Management	Medium–High – Hosted Syria talks; manages multi-vector diplomacy; stable borders.	Medium – Increased mediation attempts; improving border agreements with neighbors.	Low – Minimal role; unresolved border friction episodically.	Low – Periodic border clashes (esp. with Tajikistan); limited mediation capacity.	Low – Border tensions with Kyrgyzstan; limited mediation capacity.
Overall Standing	🟩 Strong	🟨 Emerging	🟧 Limited	🟥 Weak	🟥 Weak

Strategic & Security Capacity Kazakhstan maintains one of Central Asia’s most capable and institutionally coherent armed forces, supported by growing resource revenues and increased defence spending, and a sustained modernization agenda. Building on a multi-branch defense structure, Astana emphasizes air defense systems, drones, and improved mobility, alongside emerging cyber and technological capabilities. Its vast territory and proximity to both Russia and China compel a careful balance between obligations under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and selective cooperation with Western institutions such as NATO’s Partnership for Peace. While Kazakhstan’s armed forces remain integrated with Russian systems, their participation in UN peacekeeping missions, investment in defense-industry development, and involvement in regional counterterrorism initiatives underscore its role as a stabilizing actor and pragmatic security partner in Central Asia. Uzbekistan maintains one of Central Asia’s most capable military forces, underpinned by a defense doctrine that emphasizes sovereignty, independence, and non-alignment. The 2018 update to its defense doctrine affirms a focus on territorial defense, self-reliance, and refusal to host foreign military bases. While continuing bilateral defense cooperation with Russia through a strategic partnership program for 2026–2030, Tashkent has simultaneously expanded military ties with China and South Korea to modernize equipment and training. Its strategic proximity to Afghanistan reinforces a focus on border security, counter-terrorism, and regional dialogue, while its multi-vector foreign and defense policy reflects a pragmatic effort to balance great-power influence rather than align exclusively with any bloc. Turkmenistan, by contrast, grounds its security policy in its constitutionally enshrined and UN-recognized status of permanent neutrality, first formalized by the 1995 UN General Assembly resolution and reaffirmed in its Constitutional Law on Permanent Neutrality (1996). Despite maintaining one of Central Asia’s largest nominal troop numbers—estimated at roughly 40,000 personnel—its armed forces remain undertrained and reliant on Soviet-era equipment and are primarily defensive, focused on securing borders and protecting energy infrastructure. Eschewing formal alliances, Ashgabat avoids formal military alliances, preferring bilateral consultations with neighboring states and selective security cooperation with major powers—chiefly Russia and China, and to a lesser extent the United States—focused on counter-terrorism, border security, and regional stability. Geographically situated between Afghanistan and Iran, Turkmenistan holds latent strategic value as a buffer state, yet its insular foreign policy and limited interoperability constrain its broader regional influence. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan possess modest, resource-constrained armed forces that remain heavily dependent on external security guarantees, primarily from Russia and, to a lesser extent, China. As members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), both host major Russian military installations—Kant Air Base in Kyrgyzstan and the 201st Military Base in Tajikistan—which anchor their defense postures. Their militaries are chiefly oriented toward border control, internal stability, and counter-narcotics operations, with limited capacity for sustained conventional warfare. Repeated border clashes—particularly in the Ferghana Valley—highlight weak command structures and fragile interoperability. While Russia remains the principal security guarantor, China’s growing provision of training, surveillance technology, and equipment signals a gradual but notable expansion of Beijing’s influence across Central Asia’s southern tier.

Central Asian Military Capability and Strategic Posture (≈ 2024)

Criterion	Kazakhstan	Uzbekistan	Turkmenistan	Kyrgyzstan	Tajikistan
Active Military Personnel (normalized per 1,000 pop.)	~40–45,000 active; ~30,000 reserves; largest professionalized force; growing modernization.	~65,000 active; ~35,000 reserves; large conscription-based manpower pool.	~36,000 active; limited reserves; internal security–focused.	~13,000 active; ~10,000 reserves; small and under-equipped.	~9,000–10,000 active; ~7,000 paramilitaries; focused on counterterrorism and border defense.
Defense Expenditure (2024 est.) (% GDP / per capita)	~1.0% of GDP (~$1.8–2.0B); ~95 USD per capita; stable budget supporting modernization.	~1.3% of GDP (~$1.5B); ~70 USD per capita; increasing budget with reform momentum.	~3% of GDP (~$1.4B); ~140 USD per capita; opaque allocations, regime security priority.	~1.5% of GDP (~$200M); ~30 USD per capita; aid-dependent.	~1.6% of GDP (~$250M); ~35 USD per capita; reliant on external assistance.
Force Modernization & Technology	Modern armor and aviation (Su-30SM, MiG-31), UAV adoption, integrated air defense; domestic upgrades.	Active modernization of T-72B3 and Mi-35 fleet; UAV adoption; growing C4ISR efforts.	Limited modernization of aging Soviet platforms; niche air defense and naval assets (Caspian).	Outdated Soviet arms, weak maintenance, minimal C4ISR; incremental upgrades.	Very limited modernization; reliant on Russian equipment and support.
Defense Industry & Autonomy	Developing defense industry (repair/upgrade; some assembly); growing autonomy via partnerships.	Limited but expanding repair/maintenance capacity; exploring domestic production.	Minimal industry beyond procurement; dependence on imports.	No significant industry; relies on external support/aid.	No defense industry; entirely reliant on Russian/foreign support.
Alliances & Security Architecture	CSTO interlocutor; multi-vector ties with Türkiye/China/US; regional exercises; border security strength.	Non-CSTO; bilateral ties with Russia/Türkiye/US; growing SCO role; autonomous posture.	Neutrality; limited alliances; selective security cooperation.	CSTO member; hosts Russian base (Kant); reliance on Russian security.	CSTO member; hosts Russia’s 201st base (Dushanbe); reliance on external security guarantees.
Operational Readiness & Training	Regular exercises; professional NCO development; better readiness than peers.	Training reforms; conscription-based but improving readiness.	Limited readiness; focus on regime security; constrained training.	Low readiness and morale; dependent on Russian support.	Readiness limited to border operations; Russian mentorship crucial.
Internal Security & Paramilitaries	Robust internal troops and border service; lessons from 2022 unrest applied.	Large internal forces; policing and border control capacity growing.	Strong internal security apparatus; regime protection priority.	Dependent on Russian support for border management; limited capacity.	Dependent on Russian and CSTO mentorship for internal security.
Cyber & Information Security	Developing cyber units; information control capacity; regional leader.	Nascent cyber capabilities; growing digital defense focus.	Minimal cyber capabilities.	Minimal cyber capabilities.	Negligible cyber capacity; reliance on external partners.
Geostrategic Leverage / Access	Controls key Eurasian corridors; Caspian naval presence; strategic air transit hub between Europe and Asia.	Central position linking Afghanistan, China, and the Caucasus; major logistics and trade hub in SCO framework.	Energy-transit corridor with neutrality policy that limits external leverage.	Limited regional influence; dependent on CSTO presence and foreign aid.	Border with Afghanistan gives tactical importance but strategic vulnerability.
Overall Strategic Standing (Security Power Profile)	Strong Regional Security Actor – Balanced and professionalized force with multi-vector partnerships and credible deterrence.	Emerging Regional Power – Rapidly modernizing, increasingly autonomous, and integrated with multiple partners.	Stable but Insular – Energy-rich and inward-oriented; limited projection and partnerships.	Weak and Dependent – Small, under-resourced; reliant on Russia for defense and training.	Weak and Vulnerable – Security dominated by external actors; minimal autonomy.

Governance Governance across Central Asia remains state-centred, focused on stability, modernization, and administrative control. While political pluralism is limited, regimes seek legitimacy through performance and competence. Effective governance broadens opportunity and gives citizens a stake in national progress, making stability self-reinforcing. It also defines middle power identity: the capacity to maintain order, deliver policy, and project predictability builds credibility abroad. Kazakhstan’s political course under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev combines traditional values, national identity, and institutional modernization. Tokayev has brought the country away from personalized rule toward a system more firmly based on institutions and the rule of law. The “Fair and Just Kazakhstan” agenda focuses on efficient governance, social equity, and disciplined state management. The 2022 constitutional amendments establishing a single, non-renewable seven-year presidential term, formalized succession rules, and reinforced policy continuity. Efforts to streamline bureaucracy and reduce overlap, together with limited decentralization measures, have aimed to make the government leaner and more responsive while maintaining stability. These adjustments have strengthened institutional reliability, the basis of Kazakhstan’s credibility abroad. Its determination for a predictable policy and controlled reform, combined with social cohesion, gives the state the steadiness and diplomatic flexibility typical of a middle power positioned between competing spheres of influence. Uzbekistan’s governance under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has centered on consolidating state capacity through controlled modernization and strategic engagement. His leadership has sought to strengthen national coherence by reforming administration, opening markets, and reinvigorating regional diplomacy. These efforts have enhanced the state’s functionality and visibility abroad, projecting an image of renewal and competence. Yet decision-making remains concentrated in the presidency, where personal authority drives policy and coordination. This concentration allows swift action and clear direction—traits that reinforce Uzbekistan’s short-term effectiveness as an emerging regional actor—but it also constrains the development of resilient institutions that underpin middle power credibility. The durability of Uzbekistan’s influence will depend on its ability to institutionalize governance beyond individual leadership, ensuring that modernization translates into predictable policy and sustainable legitimacy. In that balance between control and institutionalization lies the test of its middle power maturity. By contrast, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan retain distinctive governance trajectories shaped by domestic conditions, each reflecting a different path toward or away from middle power credibility. Turkmenistan’s neutrality policy reinforces and insulates decision-making from external pressure, yet the same isolation constrains institutional development and limits the state’s engagement capacity. Kyrgyzstan’s pluralistic politics sustain a vibrant civil society and open debate—attributes that enhance soft-power appeal—but persistent volatility and leadership turnover weaken policy continuity and credibility. Tajikistan prioritizes centralized control to preserve stability, drawing on Persian cultural heritage to sustain trans-border identity linkages. While this approach reinforces internal cohesion, it limits institutional openness and constrains Tajikistan’s potential to evolve into a more adaptive and outward-oriented middle power.

Overall Middle Power Ranking (2025)

Rank	Country	Status	Summary
1	Kazakhstan	Established regional middle power	Economic anchor, active diplomacy, strategic balance
2	Uzbekistan	Emerging middle power	Reform momentum, growing influence, high aid dependence
3	Turkmenistan	Resource-based niche power	Energy leverage, limited diplomacy
4	Kyrgyzstan	Fragile capacity	Small economy, security reliance, limited influence
5	Tajikistan	Low capacity	Aid dependence, border focus, minimal soft power

Takeaway In 2025, Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape reflects a clear hierarchy of middle power maturity. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing economic resilience, diplomatic versatility, and institutional stability to exert sustained regional influence. Uzbekistan has emerged as a credible aspirant, propelled by reforms and strategic outreach, but must deepen institutional capacity and economic diversification to achieve full middle power status. The remaining republics—Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—retain limited influence, constrained by economic dependence, insular governance, or security reliance on external patrons. Together, these dynamics underscore a gradual but significant evolution: Central Asia is no longer a passive periphery of great power politics, but a region where select states—led by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan—are beginning to shape the terms of regional order and engagement on their own.