New U.S. Anti-Russian Sanctions Could Spell Trouble for Central Asian Economies

On January 10, 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector. The measures, which affect a wide range of organizations and individuals, are set to take effect on February 27. While ostensibly aimed at undermining Russia’s economic interests amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the sanctions are likely to have significant repercussions for Central Asian countries given their close economic ties with Russian energy giants.

The sanctions package, viewed by some analysts as a final move by the outgoing Biden administration, could become a potent tool for the incoming administration to exert influence over Russian interests in Central Asia.

Sanctions on Gazpromneft Subsidiaries

The new sanctions include restrictions on Gazpromneft's subsidiaries operating in Central Asia. Affected entities include Gazpromneft Tajikistan, Gazpromneft Kazakhstan, Gazpromneft Asia (Kyrgyzstan), and Munai Myrza (Kyrgyzstan).

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Gazpromneft and its regional subsidiaries are considered critical sources of revenue that support Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. In response, Gazpromneft characterized the sanctions as "unfounded, illegitimate and contrary to the principles of free competition."

The impact of these sanctions, however, could prove severe for the economies of Central Asia, where Gazpromneft plays a key role in the energy sector. Gazpromneft Asia, for example, is a major supplier of petroleum products in Kyrgyzstan, making it a critical player in the domestic market. Sanctions on the company could disrupt fuel supplies and drive up energy prices in the country.

Gazpromneft Kazakhstan LLP, based in Almaty, operates a network of Gazpromneft-branded gas stations in Kazakhstan. While disruptions to fuel supplies in this network might not critically affect Kazakhstan’s economy - the largest in Central Asia - the sanctions carry broader implications.

Threats to Joint Projects

Beyond direct sanctions on companies, several executives of Russian oil firms actively operating in Kazakhstan have been added to the U.S. sanctions list. Key figures include Vadim Vorobyev, President of Lukoil PJSC and a member of Kazakhstan’s Foreign Investors Council. Lukoil is a strategic partner of KazMunaiGas (KMG) in production and exploration projects; Nail Maganov, CEO of Tatneft, which collaborates with KMG on projects such as Karaton Podsolovaya, Butadiene, and the Saran Tire Plant; Alexander Dyukov, the Chairman of Gazpromneft, and Sergei Kudryashov, CEO of Zarubezhneft, which has signed letters of intent for joint projects with KMG.

These sanctions could complicate existing partnerships and delay key projects, undermining Kazakhstan’s energy sector and its broader economic growth.

Sanctions on Rosatom and Nuclear Energy

Another significant element of the sanctions package is the inclusion of Rosatom executives on the U.S. sanctions list. This development poses challenges to Kazakhstan’s plans to establish an international consortium - including representatives from France, South Korea, China, and Russia - to build a nuclear power plant.

With Rosatom facing restrictions, the consortium is now likely to exclude Russia, potentially straining relations between Astana and Moscow. A global leader in nuclear energy, Rosatom was expected to play a central role in the project. Kazakhstan may now explore alternative arrangements, balancing its energy ambitions with the risk of alienating a key partner.

Exceptions and Strategic Implications

Interestingly, the U.S. sanctions package includes an exemption that allows American companies to provide oilfield services for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and Tengizchevroil LLP until June 28, 2025. Chevron, the largest private shareholder in both projects, has significant stakes in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field, which accounts for approximately 20% of the company’s global reserves.

The CPC pipeline, which transports oil from Tengiz to Russia’s Novorossiysk port on the Black Sea, is similarly crucial for Chevron’s operations. The exemption ensures continuity for these projects, at least temporarily.

Observers, including the Kazakh oil and gas industry journalist Oleg Chervinsky, have speculated about how the incoming U.S. administration under Donald Trump will approach these exemptions after June 28. Writing on the Telegram channel “Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan: Facts and Comments,” Chervinsky suggests that the outgoing Biden administration’s sanctions may limit Trump’s ability to implement new strategies. Conversely, the sanctions could also provide the new administration with powerful leverage to pressure Central Asian states to distance themselves from Russia’s economic and energy sphere.

Complex Dynamics

The latest round of U.S. sanctions against Russia underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia. By targeting Russian energy firms and executives, the measures not only escalate the economic pressure on Moscow but also expose Central Asian countries to potential economic disruptions. As these nations navigate the fallout, they will need to carefully balance their ties with Russia, their energy needs, and their relationships with Western powers.

Tajikistan Files New Charges in Konibodom ‘Night Killings’ Case

Three suspects in Tajikistan's Konibodom ‘night killings’ case now face additional charges of hooliganism and rape. Solekhdjon Khudojberdiyev, Ahadjon Tukhtaev, and Manuchehr Odilov, initially charged with murder. Authorities have offered little public information on the case. A brief statement from the Prosecutor General’s Office acknowledged the new indictments but refrained from providing further details, leaving key questions unanswered.  

Suspect Profiles

• Solekhdjon Khudojberdiyev (b. 1998): Hailing from the village of Gulbog, Khudojberdiyev had a prior conviction for rape. A sports enthusiast, he was known locally for his boxing, weightlifting, and power juggling performances.
• Ahadjon Tukhtaev (b. 1997): A butcher by trade from the same village as Khudojberdiyev, Tukhtaev also had a criminal record for sex crimes.
• Manuchehr Odilov (b. 1996): From Khamroboev Jamoat, Odilov shared a similar criminal background. Reports suggest he became acquainted with Khudojberdiyev and Tukhtaev while in prison.
• Bakhtiyor Ravshanov (b. 1988): A shoemaker and builder from the village of Sanjidzor, Ravshanov is Khudojberdiyev’s cousin. He faces murder charges for one of the killings in May.

Case Background

The Konibodom region in Sughd Oblast has endured a series of brutal killings. Between late March and May 2024, 13 individuals - ranging from children to the elderly - were murdered in their homes. The victims, ethnic Tajiks and Kyrgyz, lived near the border with Kyrgyzstan. These crimes, committed in different parts of the city, terrorized residents before the suspects were apprehended and the killings temporarily ceased.

However, the violence resurfaced in December. On December 9, six people were killed, followed by four more murders on December 16. The crimes prompted swift action, and on December 22, the Prosecutor General’s Office announced the detention of four suspects.

The investigation remains under the close scrutiny of Tajikistan’s top leadership. The Prosecutor General is expected to provide a comprehensive update during the final press conference, shedding light on the motives and details of these tragic events.

Istanbul Prosecutors Seek Lengthy Sentences for Suspects in Crocus City Attack

The Istanbul Prosecutor’s Office has demanded prison sentences ranging from 7.5 to 15 years for five Central Asians accused of involvement in last spring's terrorist attack on the Crocus City concert hall in Moscow. This information was reported by the Anadolu news agency.

The detainees - identified as Hafizjon Usmanov, Muteullo Asoyev, Rahmatullo Solikov, Muhammadrahim Faizov, and Hamza Muhammed - are accused of providing instructions and logistical support to the perpetrators of the attack. They allegedly promised 800,000 rubles (approximately $7,240) and new identity documents in exchange for carrying out the attack.

According to Anadolu, the suspects were in contact with Shamsiddin Fariduni and Saidakrami Rachabalizoda, who are believed to have been directly involved in the attack. One of the detainees reportedly shared an apartment in Istanbul’s Avcılar district with Fariduni.

Evidence presented by prosecutors includes correspondence between one of the suspects and a perpetrator. In the messages, the suspect proposed planting a bomb at the Vegas shopping center, promising an advance payment of 100,000 rubles and an additional 700,000 rubles upon completion of the act.

The terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall in March last year claimed the lives of 144 people and injured 551 others. The main suspects in the case are citizens of Tajikistan, with reports indicating that 12 individuals have been arrested in connection with the attack.

The Istanbul investigation sheds further light on the broader network behind the attack, pointing to an international web of operatives and support personnel.

Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices.

While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels.

Global Economic Highlights

In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively.

Central Asia Outlook

In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies.

Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.

Repatriating Islamic State Fighters and Families: Balancing Security and Humanity

With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, repatriating foreign fighters is a pressing issue at the intersection of global security, humanitarian principles, and national responsibility. Central Asian governments — namely, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan — have emerged as proactive players in repatriating their citizens from camps in northeastern Syria. While these efforts are laudable, they come with challenges and unanswered questions. Tens of thousands of people, many of them women and children associated with former ISIS or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria - a terrorist organization known for its extreme ideology and violent actions of its’ fighters — remain trapped in the camps of northeastern Syria. Their lives are defined by squalor and uncertainty, and they face a bleak future. Central Asian nations have stepped up where many others have faltered, asserting their responsibility to help their citizens who languish there. Yet, this commitment is not without its limits. Repatriating men — many of whom were fighters — remains a challenge that even the most ambitious programs have struggled to address. This issue looms large, as it intertwines with broader questions. These include reintegration, security risks, and the potential for radicalization, both in prison systems and broader society. The scale of efforts undertaken by four of the Central Asian countries is significant. Together, they have repatriated around 2,200 citizens: Kazakhstan, the most, 754 individuals, followed by others with numbers ranging from 381 to 533. These figures represent more than just logistical achievements. They reflect these governments' commitment to humanitarian principles. However, the path has not been entirely smooth, as some of the repatriated women and children have returned back to conflict zones. As counterintuitive as this may seem, they might do so out of ideological commitment, social ties, coercion or threats, trauma bonding, or difficulty reintegrating into their home societies. All this suggests cracks in reintegration programs that must be addressed. The strategies employed by the Central Asian states, despite their common goal, differ in focus and execution. Kazakhstan’s “Operation Zhusan” is often mentioned as a model of coordination and commitment. It has gone beyond mere repatriation to a vision embracing comprehensive reintegration, including other services, such as DNA testing to identify orphaned children. Yet such efforts rely heavily on state resources and long-term political will, neither of which can be taken for granted. Uzbekistan’s Mehr ("Kindness") initiative has particularly focused on protecting children and supporting the unification of families. Yet even with international appreciation, Uzbekistan faces the same challenges as its neighbors: how to sustain this momentum and address lingering societal stigmas toward returnees. Kyrgyzstan paused its repatriation operations in Iraq due to legal roadblocks and has turned its attention to Syria. However, Kyrgyzstan relies significantly on international cooperation, as its own economic resources for such activities are comparatively limited. So far, it has repatriated 511 citizens. Tajikistan’s steady progress highlights even more pointedly the role of international cooperation with organizations like UNICEF and the European Union. The Tajik authorities have worked closely with these partners to provide psychological and educational support for returnees. Questions remain about the long-term success of reintegration, particularly for individuals who may struggle to find acceptance in their communities. However, repatriation is not just a strategic necessity, but a moral obligation. For women and children, the barriers to reintegration include societal stigma, mental health struggles, and the absence of economic opportunities. Repatriated men face a different set of concerns. Not least, the risk of radicalization can be significant in instances of incarceration. Even outside of the prison system, ISIS sentiments and the urge to impose or fight for extremists and oppressive ideologies may persist. The countries of Central Asia have taken constructive steps to address such challenges where others have hesitated: in Europe and North America, repatriation efforts have frequently been delayed or limited by debates over security risks, public opinion, and resource allocation. Many Western nations have opted for a case-by-case approach or declined broad repatriation. The much more comprehensive Central Asia approach, by contrast, demonstrates both responsibility and the presence of compassion in governance. Important international observers have considered such efforts as a global model for balancing security and humanitarianism. Thus, even NGOs such as Human Rights Watch, critical of other aspects of Central Asian governance, have noted the humanitarian focus of these repatriation efforts. Likewise, respected think-tanks such as the International Crisis Group, have highlighted Central Asia's approach as noteworthy; and UN agencies like UNICEF have praised aspects of reintegration and repatriation programs, particularly those aimed at children and vulnerable populations. Yet, the Central Asian experience demonstrates the importance of looking beyond repatriation to focus on long-term reintegration. Central Asia has shown that progress is achievable, but also fragile. It requires continuous investment, not just in financial terms, but in terms of societal and political commitment, as well as continuing international assistance. Time and again, we are reminded that terrorism is a global challenge, indifferent to borders. Without opportunities for integration and a shared future within civil society, those disconnected from it will continue to pose a threat globally.

Deportations of Central Asians from the U.S. Increased in 2024

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has released its Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report, detailing the agency’s accomplishments over the past year. The report highlights how ICE’s directorates and program offices met their mission objectives. Established in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, ICE is tasked with protecting the American public, ensuring public safety, and promoting national security.

According to the report, ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) deported 271,484 non-citizens with final orders of removal to 192 countries. This total includes 88,763 individuals charged with or convicted of criminal offenses, 3,706 known or suspected gang members, 237 known or suspected terrorists, and eight human rights violators. More than 30% of those deported had criminal histories, with an average of 5.63 convictions or charges per individual. ERO also assisted in identifying and arresting individuals wanted in their home countries for serious crimes, including terrorism and torture.

The Times of Central Asia examined the report with a focus on Central Asian countries.

In 2024, the US deported 572 Uzbek nationals - a dramatic increase compared to 88 in 2013, 21 in 2021, and 55 in 2022.

Deportations of Tajik citizens also surged, reaching 77 in 2024 compared to only four annually in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023.

Kazakhstan saw the deportation of 23 of its citizens this year, up from 14 in 2023.

Deportations to Kyrgyzstan also spiked, with 69 individuals removed in 2024. By comparison, only three Kyrgyz citizens were deported in 2020, eight in 2021, one in 2022, and 14 in 2023.

Meanwhile, deportations of Turkmen nationals remained low, but still showed an upward trend. In 2024, five Turkmen citizens were deported, compared to four in 2019, one in 2022, and three in 2023.

Tajikistan Captures Four Suspected of Konibodom Night Murders

Tajikistan's Prosecutor General's Office has announced that it has detained four men in connection with a series of murders that have terrified the town of Konibodom, in the country's northern Sughd region.

• Solehjon Khudojberdiev, born in 1998, a resident of Firuzoba Jamoat, Gulbog village;
• Akhajon Tukhtaev, born in 1997, also from Firuzoba Jamoat, Gulbog village;
• Bakhtiyor Ravshanov, born in 1988, a resident of Lohuti Jamoat, Sanchidzor village;
• Manuchehr Odilov, born in 1996, in M. Abdulloyev street, Khamroboyev Jamoat.

All four are residents of Konibodom.

The Prosecutor General's Office said that the investigation is being conducted under the direct supervision of the country's top leadership.

Earlier this year, The Times of Central Asia reported that Konibodom residents had endured a wave of night murders in the spring. Between late March and late May, 13 people -- ethnic Tajiks, and Kyrgyz from the region near the Kyrgyz border -- were killed. The victims, ranging from children to the elderly, were murdered in different parts of the town.

While authorities initially claimed the suspects had been caught and the killings had stopped, violence returned in December. On December 9, six more people were murdered, followed by four more found dead in their homes on December 16.

Fear Returns to Tajikistan’s Konibodom Area

A series of murders in spring had residents in the area around Tajikistan’s northern city of Konibodom on edge for weeks. Thirteen people were killed between late March and late May, apparently by someone who broke into their homes at night. The victims ages ranged from young children to elderly people; they were ethnic Tajiks and Kyrgyz (Konibodom is located near the border with Kyrgyzstan), and the crimes happened in different areas around the city. The murders stopped, and later the Tajik authorities said they had captured the suspects, but on December 9, the nightmare started again with six people being killed, and on December 16, four more people were found dead in their homes.   The Killing Starts Again On December 9, the bodies of six people were found in the Shurkurgon neighborhood of Konibodom. All six were members of the Nematov family. Thirty-seven-year-old Naimjon was found hanged on a tree in the courtyard of the family’s home. His body showed signs of a struggle. His 33-year-old wife and four children, the youngest only two years old, were all strangled inside the family’s home. Local authorities and police have not commented on the killings. On December 16, reports said the bodies of 35-year-old Gaibullo Majidov and his 28-year-old wife Zarnigor were found in their home in Konibodom’s Hisorak neighborhood. Their three children were reportedly unharmed. On the same day in the same neighborhood, the bodies of 70-year-old Oyisha Shokirova and her 44-year-old son Javlon were found. Reports said all appeared to have died violent deaths, but the exact cause was not given. Police have also not commented on these murders. Prior to these latest killings, it appeared the police had caught at least some of the people responsible for a wave of murders in the spring that had local residents talking about “men in black” who prowled the streets in the middle of the night.   The Authorities’ Version On July 31, Konibodom Mayor Abdusalom Tukhtasunzoda said a suspect had been caught for the May 28-29 killings of six people in the village of Sanjidzor, on the outskirts of Konibodom. Tukhtasunzoda did not give any details about the suspect or the motive, except to say the person had been detained the week before. The Konibodom mayor said the murders in May were not connected to the earlier killings of five members of the Sharipov family in March, or to Muzaffar Urmonov and his wife Inoyat Urmanova in April. Tukhtasunzoda also dismissed the tales being told of men dressed in black clothing and masks being responsible for any of the murders. “There were no people ‘in black’ in the city of Konibodom,” Tukhtasunzoda said, “The video, which is distributed on social networks, was not filmed in Konibodom. Such footage is being circulated to frighten people.” On August 8, First Deputy Interior Minister Abdurahmon Alamshozoda told a press conference the was “nothing sensational” about the murders in Konibodom the previous spring. Alamshozoda said the incidents in March and April were the result of family quarrels, that suspects had already been arrested, and the killings in May were still being investigated. Alamshozoda said he could not reveal any more information since the investigations into all the killings were still ongoing. It seemed clear from Alamshozoda’s and Tukhtasunzoda’s comments that authorities considered the crimes solved. At the end of November, 42-year-old Marat Sattorov was convicted of killing Mahbuba Ahmedova and her two children, and the murders of Zulho Ibragimova, her brother and brother’s wife in the village of Sanjidzor at the end of May. Sattorov was sentenced to life imprisonment. On December 12, 68-year-old Sharifjon Ashurov was convicted of the killing of Muzaffar Urmonov and his wife in April, and was sentenced to 20 years in prison. In both cases, relatives of the defendants and the victims expressed doubts that the authorities had caught the right people. Sharifjon Ahsurov’s family claims he was tortured and continually proclaimed his innocence during the trial.   Murderers Still on the Loose? These latest six murders show that either the authorities have not caught the people responsible, or all the people responsible, or there is a copycat killer or killers now on the loose. What facts are known show similarities between the killings in spring and those just committed. When the first murders happened in March, police initially believed the 65-year-old head of the Sharipov family had killed his wife, daughter-in-law, and two grandchildren, then hanged himself. Later police determined the man was hanged by the killer, who tried to make it look like a suicide. In the murders on December 9, Naimjon Nematov was found hanged. Most of the victims of the series of killings in spring were strangled, which also appears to be how most of the victims on December 8-9 were killed, whilst the cause of deaths in the December 16 incident have not been made public. Authorities seem anxious to resolve these murders, but their explanations do not add up. At least 23 people in the Konibodom area have been murdered in 2024, a huge number for one area in such a short period and difficult to ascribe to domestic quarrels. And despite two people being convicted for the March-May killings, ten more murders were just committed in the same area.