Central Asian Countries Unite To Support Women and Children Repatriated From Conflict Zones
UNICEF Uzbekistan reports that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are actively working to improve the support system for women and children returning from conflict zones, such as Iraq and Syria. In support of the European Union's project “The second phase of EU-UN support to Central Asian states for their citizens returning from conflict zones,” delegations from the above met to discuss their shared experiences and means of providing necessary support and services for successfully reintegrating women and children into society. Uzbekistan was one of the first countries in Central Asia to start repatriating its citizens from conflict zones. Since 2019, the country has undertaken several missions to return women and children stranded in conflict zones as part of operations known as “Mehr” (“kindness” in Uzbek). The “Mehr-1” and “Mehr-2” operations have enabled the Government of Uzbekistan to repatriate many of its citizens, and in cooperation with the government of Iraq and UNICEF, offer a safe haven in their motherland for children deprived of basic necessities such as food, clean water, and medical care while living in war zones and refugee camps. On their return, repatriated citizens are placed in special sanatoriums where they are provided with hot food, clothing, and the services of doctors, therapists, and teachers. To date, Uzbekistan has successfully repatriated 531 citizens, including 331 children, 125 women, and 27 men. The country's initiative has been praised internationally and noting its focus on the interests of children and supporting the family unity and society, Ní Aoláin, a UN expert has stateed that, “The Uzbek model of repatriation and reintegration provides a roadmap for other governments to return their nationals from conflict zones." Kazakhstan, likewise, has committed to the repatriation of its citizens from areas previously controlled by the Islamic State, and has launched operations “Jusan” and “Rusafa”, implemented with a high level of coordination between various government agencies, including national security services, diplomats, and the military. One of the most essential repatriations took place within the framework of the “Jusan” operation, launched in 2019. The name “Jusan” means bitter wormwood; native to Kazakhstan and a symbol of homesickness. Through this operation, hundreds of women and children were rescued from dangerous refugee camps in Syria, including the notorious Al-Hol Camp. Maryam, one of the women repatriated during the “Jusan” operation, said that the "first time a delegation from Kazakhstan arrived was to collect data on Kazakh citizens in the Al-Hol Camp. They promised to come back for us soon. A month of waiting felt like an eternity to us.” According to women from the tent camp, the shortage of drinking water and provisions, essential medicines, and the unbearable heat aggravated the situation and led to constant conflicts between residents. The humanitarian operations “Jusan” and “Rusafa” enabled the return of 725 people to Kazakhstan, including 188 women and 522 children, most of whom were under twelve years of age. Kazakhstan's success in such operations has been attributed to the high level of investment by the state. According to Gabit Konusov, a researcher at the Institute of Modern Studies of the Eurasian National University, the country’s government did not involve foreign donors in its humanitarian operations. Konusov, however, does not believe that finances were the sole key. On November 27, 2019, fourteen children of mothers imprisoned in Iraq were returned to Kazakhstan under Operation “Rusafa". Finance played a significant role, but as Aruzhan Sain, former Commissioner for Children's Rights in Kazakhstan, noted: “As part of these operations in Syria and Iraq, children left without parents were subjected to DNA testing. As a result, we were able to return the children to our country.” Tajikistan has also made significant progress in repatriating its citizens from conflict zones. Between 2019-2023, the country repatriated over 300 women and children from Iraq and Syria, and in April 2024, forty-seven Tajik citizens were returned from Syria. As in other Central Asian countries, Tajikistan's repatriation process aims to reintegrate these individuals into society and ensure their long-term well-being, and the Tajik authorities have worked closely with international partners to provide returnees with medical, psychological, and educational support. The Kyrgyz government stopped repatriating its citizens from Iraq in March 2021 after 79 children were returned home. This pause was due to the Iraqi government’s refusal to release Kyrgyz women serving long term prison sentences. Kyrgyzstan has henceforth turned its attention to the repatriation of citizens from the Al-Hol and Raj refugee camps in northeast Syria, where women and children are not forcibly detained. On February 20, 2024, as a result of another operation, Kyrgyzstan returned 28 women and 71 children from camps in northeast Syria. A total of 511 Kyrgyz citizens – 129 women and 382 children – have been repatriated from Syria and Iraq, and in June of this year, Kyrgyzstan returned another eight women and 14 children from Syria. Although both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan provide weighty economic and social support to the women upon their return, including costs for professional education, grants to start businesses and even housing subsidies, all four of these countries share a united approach and priorities regarding social and economic support for repatriated citizens.
Latvia Coaches Central Asia on Borders While Hardening Russia Frontier
Last month, Central Asian border and law enforcement authorities on a training visit to Latvia got a look at the Baltic state’s border with Russia, which the Latvian government is fortifying because of tension over the Ukraine war. Officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan met in the Latvian capital of Riga on August 27-29 to talk about how to secure their own borders and work together on trade corridors. The trip ended with a visit to Latvia’s 330-kilometer border to the east with Russia, where “conference participants got acquainted with the infrastructure, equipment and specifics of the border surveillance,” said an EU-backed agency that promotes Central Asian border security and is known by the acronym BOMCA. Unlike the Central Asian countries, Latvia is a NATO member that has provided military aid to Ukraine and considers Russia and Russian ally Belarus, with which it also shares a border (160 kilometers), to be adversaries. Latvia is preparing strongholds, anti-tank ditches and ammunition depots along its border with both countries. The border buildup of Latvia, which was invaded by both Soviet and German forces during World War II before eventual Soviet occupation, differs from the experience of Central Asia’s former Soviet republics, which were formed in the 1920s and 1930s. Of those Central Asian countries, only Kazakhstan shares a border (at about 7,600 kilometers) to the north with Russia, which has longstanding security and trade relations with the region despite the often harsh legacy of Soviet rule. Still, Latvia’s role as a leader of the 20-year-old European Union program to help Central Asia develop and integrate its border management systems comes at a fraught time for the Baltic country as it hardens its borders with Russia and Belarus. The Central Asian officials who inspected Latvia’s border with Russia last month also toured the Border Guard College of Latvia in the eastern town of Rēzekne, whose landmarks include an arch of the ruins of a castle that was mostly destroyed during fighting centuries ago. A Russian military drone entered Latvian airspace from Belarus and fell in the Rēzekne region on Saturday, according to Latvian defense officials. Defense Minister Andris Sprūds said that air defense and electronic warfare development will “allow us to limit the operation of drones of various uses." Latvia has also grappled with illegal crossings by migrants coming from Belarus, which has denied Western accusations that it facilitated border breaches in order to put pressure on the European Union. The EU-backed border training for Central Asia started long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and is designed to help Central Asian countries with their own challenges, which include drug smuggling and human trafficking. There are historical border disputes in Central Asia, but some have been moving toward resolution. Currently, Latvia and neighboring Lithuania are hosting several months of training for Central Asian handlers of K9s, dogs that search for illegal drugs and explosives. Latvia, in turn, is getting its own help from allies. Earlier this year, the United States gave about 60 buggies to Latvia for patrolling its borders with Russia and Belarus, building on the delivery of drone kits, night vision gear and other equipment in recent years, according to Latvian media.
World Nomad Games Opening Ceremony: A Fusion of the Ancient and the Modern
With much pageantry, September 8 saw Astana host the opening ceremony of the 5th World Nomad Games, themed as the "Gathering of the Great Steppe." A procession of singers and dancers in tall white telpek hats and flowing red and gold robes opened proceedings, marrying modern beats to traditional music. This fusion of the ancient and the present was a key theme running through the entire event.
With the melodies building to crescendo, the flag-waving crowd lifted their torches aloft, chanting “Kazakhstan,” before the national anthem peeled out from the stage.
With 89 countries participating in this edition, the parade of athletes followed, each nation led forth by a white steed and a woman in a traditional, sparkling costume. From the hundreds representing the Kyrgyz Republic – a perennial champion at the World Nomad Games – to far smaller contingents, such as the three representatives from Benin, each nation was afforded their moment in the spotlight. Last, but far from least, the athletes from Kazakhstan emerged to a huge roar of appreciation.
Taking to the podium with the keynote address, President Tokayev told the crowd Kazakhstan is “known to everyone as a land of peace and coexistence. The games, he stated, are a “great event on a global scale… Nomadic civilization has left a deep mark on world history. The new technologies they developed provided the impetus for global progress. Five thousand years ago, nomads domesticated the horse and shaped a horseback riding culture that spread across the world… Serving as a bridge between East and West, nomads played a crucial role in the rapprochement of various cultures.
“The great nomadic life will never cease to exist,” Tokayev concluded. “Even amid globalization, the nomadic lifestyle that existed for a thousand years is reviving and taking a new shape. Modern nomads are making efforts to reclaim a central place in history. We are moving and traveling easily all over the world in search of education and job opportunities.”
First Deputy Prime Minister, Roman Sklyar took the opportunity to emphasize that in the wake of unprecedented floods, the nation had grasped this moment to show “resilience in our commitment to our traditions.” Respect and solidarity were at the core of his address, whilst without naming specific conflicts which continue to cast a long shadow over the region, Skylar stated that there can be “no peace without unity.”
Specifically mentioning the conflict in Gaza, the son of Turkey’s President, Bilal Erdogan, President of the World Ethnosport Confederation echoed these sentiments, remarking that the games represent the “bonds of unity that the world needs today more than ever.”
[video width="848" height="480" mp4="https://timesca.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/WhatsApp-Video-2024-09-08-at-23.10.59.mp4"][/video]
Also in attendance at the event hosted by President Tokayev were the President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, President Japarov of the Kyrgyz Republic, Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedow, the Chairman of the People's Council of Turkmenistan, the Rais (Head) of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, the Head of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Aisen Nikolayev, and the former president of Mongolia, Nambaryn Enkhbayar.
Dazzling visuals marked the end of the ceremony, as trapeze artists pirouetted through the air, Dimash Qudaibergen serenaded the audience, and wolves, camels and eagles took center stage.
The Onset of “Friend-Shoring” in Central Asia
As Central Asia’s significance for global supply chains grows, the world’s major economic powers are seeking closer economic ties with the region’s countries. China, Russia, and the West all curry favor through investments and initiatives to bolster the region’s exports and secure their supply chains. Bordering China and Russia, Central Asia spans a land surface area corresponding to 87% the size of the entire European Union (EU). The region has a combined market of 76 million people and gross domestic product of 450 billion U.S. dollars. It is critical to global energy supply chains as it possesses 20% of the world's uranium reserves, as well as 17.2% of total oil and 7% of natural gas deposits. Kazakhstan produces over half of the EU’s critical raw materials, i.e. substances used in technology which are subject to supply risks and are hard to replace with substitutes. In the first seven months of 2024, rail cargo across the Middle Corridor, a trans-Caspian trade route linking China to Europe, has increased 14-fold compared to the same period last year. As the region opens up and undergoes significant economic transformation, supply chains are increasingly directed there, sparking competition for control over its vast natural resources and production capabilities. Major economic powers are stepping in to strengthen bilateral ties to ensure reliable trade partnerships. These strategies, known as “friend-shoring,” aim to reduce geopolitical risks, enhance supply chain stability, and transform Central Asian countries into trusted allies by fostering strong bilateral relationships and deeper economic ties. China and Russia remain at the helm of regional activity China has been actively engaging with Central Asian countries through strengthening economic ties and building strategic partnerships. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance infrastructure and trade connectivity across the region, China has helped strengthen the region’s rail network. China supplies equipment and invests in Uzbekistan’s electric vehicles, scooters, and leather production. Uzbekistan, in partnership with PowerChina and Saudi company ACWA Power, is also constructing the country’s first green hydrogen plant. Kyrgyzstan’s bilateral trade with China was up 30% in 2023 compared to 2022. This year, Turkmenistan has surpassed Russia in gas exports to China. In 2023, Kazakhstan's agricultural exports to China doubled to $1 billion compared to 2022, making China the largest importer of agricultural products from the country. Historically, Russia has been a major trading partner for Central Asian countries due to the Soviet legacy of a command economy, which established strong economic interdependencies that persisted in post-USSR period. While the region is aggressively diversifying its trade relationships, Russia is increasing gas supplies and energy infrastructure investments, specifically in renewables and nuclear facilities. Kazakhstan delivers most of its oil to Europe through Russia. Russian-led organizations, including the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), promote cooperation and economic integration with free movement of goods, services, and capital among member states. Russia's war against Ukraine has disrupted supply chains, but it has also opened up new trade opportunities, especially for Kazakhstan, as Western companies look for alternatives to conducting business in Russia. In 2022, over 50 international companies relocated to Kazakhstan. Are the EU and the U.S. doing enough to catch up? The EU is turning to partner countries in Central Asia to provide critical imports as a way to lessen its riskier dependencies (such as on Russian supplies). Various initiatives by the EU, Germany, France and the United Kingdom are working with Kazakhstan to further the green transition through harvesting critical raw materials (CRMs), green hydrogen and battery components to further the green transition. The EU is cooperating with Uzbekistan in the field of CRM development, as well as the import of green energy. The European Union's Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GSP+) program strengthens ties with developing countries with relatively low incomes through trade incentives. As beneficiaries of this program, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have gained better access to the EU market via tariff reductions, most notably on exports of food, chemicals and textiles. Unlike China, Russia, and Europe, the U.S. lacks state-backed companies to carry out its trade and investments. However, a Chevron-Exxon project in Kazakhstan, budgeted at $48.5 billion, is by far the largest private sector investment in the region. Like China and Europe, the U.S. is also interested in developing and sourcing Central Asia’s critical materials deposits. In February 2024, the U.S. Department of State hosted the inaugural meeting of the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialog (CMD) which aims to increase the region’s involvement in global critical minerals supply chains and strengthen economic cooperation. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan participated in the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), the largest and oldest U.S. trade preference program, until it expired on December 31, 2020. It fosters bilateral partnerships by promoting economic development through duty-free imports of thousands of products into the U.S. The program's renewal is currently pending action by the U.S. Congress. Unlike the EU’s GSP+, the U.S. version supports trade in goods that are produced less domestically, emphasizing areas of comparative advantage. It also encourages "friend-shoring," i.e., aiming to build robust supply chains with allied nations, thereby reducing reliance on rivals for essential materials. During a recent Senate Finance Committee hearing, U.S. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) underscored the consequences of not renewing GSP: “For the United States, they [programs such as GSP] can help facilitate equitable market access and, strategically, help partners become more competitive vis-à-vis China”. In Central Asia, the U.S. has partners as well as a strategic need to source critical materials and diversify away from rivaling states such as Russia and China. A strategic contest Friend-shoring in Central Asia represents a strategic contest over the region's natural resources. As the countries of Central Asia seek to diversify their partnerships and engage with multiple countries, businesses from nations that actively reduce trade barriers (such as tariffs) and maintain favorable diplomatic relations with these countries will have a competitive edge in the region. Strengthening bilateral trade ties with Central Asia offers significant benefits for global supply chains, while neglecting these relationships could result in substantial economic and strategic losses.
Ecological Limit: Five Year Countdown to Water Scarcity in Central Asia
Combating climate change requires collective action by all or a sufficient majority of the world's players supporting global initiatives. Otherwise, it may soon be too late to take any action. To address the issue, the Eurasian Development Bank, the CAREC Think Tank, and the Asian Development Bank organized a two-day forum entitled “The Climate Challenge: Thinking Beyond Borders for Collective Action,” in Almaty, Kazakhstan. Focusing on means of achieving genuine regional cooperation on Asian climate action, the eighth CAREC Think Tank Development Forum was attended by policymakers, experts, and opinion leaders from more than 30 countries. The extensive two-day dialog, consisting of eight sessions, opened with a discussion on the effectiveness of current global initiatives related to climate change: the Paris Agreement, the Global Environment Facility, and the Green Climate Fund. Attention then turned to deepening cooperation among as many stakeholders as possible through multilateral platforms such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Asia's role in the global fight against climate change, and the difficult balancing act between economic growth and decarbonization efforts were discussed at length. Simply put, the rapid growth of the Asian economy is inevitably accompanied by an increasing consumption of energy, the generation of which leads to increased emissions and pollution. Climate damage due to human impact can be halted and even reversed. However, because this can only be achieved with technological intervention, it poses problems for developing economies unable to afford advanced technologies. Hence, establishing a framework and mechanisms for global technology transfer were key to discussions. Water and finance were also high on the agenda and the subject of a paper presented by Arman Ahunbaev, Head of the Center for Infrastructure and Industrial Research of the Eurasian Development Bank on “Ways to close the investment gap in the drinking water supply and wastewater sector in Central Asia." Ahunbaev reported that 10 million people, or 14% of the population in Central Asia, do not have access to safe drinking water and warned that without intervention, the situation would reach the point of no return in the coming years. To prevent this from happening, he stressed the urgent need for solutions to four problems. The first problem is a twofold increase in the volume of water intake for municipal and domestic needs, based on past figures which showed a growth from 4.2 cubic kilometers in 1994 to 8.6 cubic kilometers in 2020. The second problem is the severe deterioration of water supply infrastructure and treatment equipment, and the third, technological and commercial water losses in distribution networks. The fourth problem is related to the demographic boom and, consequently, the rapid urbanization of Central Asia's population. Cities are expanding and their infrastructure needs to develop accordingly. According to experts, in 2023, urbanization in Central Asian countries will reach 49%, and by 2050, 61%. By 2030, the urban population will exceed that in rural areas. Ahunbaev noted the need for improvement in financing the water supply and sanitation sector in Central Asia since according to rough estimates, the regional deficit in this area is around 12 billion dollars or 2 billion dollars annually. He proposed strengthening public-private partnership as a potential solution, whereby the water sector would be reformed to allow expansion of ownership and management of its enterprises. “It is necessary to improve legislation so that there would be an opportunity to attract, among other things, private capital. We see that the state's budget is limited. Hence, the idea is to develop public-private partnerships and open the possibility of attracting private capital,” Akhunbayev explained. The expert clarified that rather than transferring the sector's enterprises and facilities entirely into private hands, his proposal would provide an opportunity for private investors to invest alongside the state, to help it fulfil its remit. “But the state must retain its leading role," stressed Ahunbayev. " International experience only talks about this. But private capital can greatly help professional management.” Another possible measure to correct the situation regarding the region's water sector is to prioritize investments, optimize the volume of funds attracted, and free up a significant share of capital investments. The EDB also believes it necessary to improve tariff policy, i.e., to raise tariffs, which in Central Asian countries today, are around five times lower than those in Europe. “Tariff setting functions should be gradually transferred to the water supply and wastewater sector enterprises. But -should only be implemented- under the supervision of local executive bodies or an independent regulator and with public participation,” added Ahunbayev. To prevent possible water shortages, Central Asian countries need to make institutional and legal decisions regarding the creation of precise inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms, help restore project expertise, train engineering and technical personnel and the systematic instigation of water protection principles. Ahunbayev closed by emphasizing the need for the immediate implementation of all of the above recommendations. In addition to the demographic explosion, Central Asia is experiencing relatively rapid economic development, which in turn, leads to increasing water consumption. If we do not take care of it right now, it will be too late in five years' time.
Tajikistan Promises Toil and Trouble for Witchcraft Clients
Tajikistan is widening the war on warlocks. The Tajik government has previously announced hard labor, heavy fines and other tough penalties for people convicted of fortune-telling, sorcery and witchcraft. Now it is targeting their customers. Legal measures are being taken against more than 150 people suspected of paying soothsayers to commit “criminal acts,” the Ministry of Internal Affairs said on Wednesday. The ministry did not provide details about the legal action, but said it will collect the data and photographs of people who go to fortune-tellers and sorcerers. For years, Tajikistan has warned that fortune-tellers and the like are fraudsters seeking to bilk customers out of their money. There appear to be deeper concerns that deeply rooted beliefs revolving around the supernatural are a threat to stability. Alarming human rights groups, the government has also banned clothing deemed to be foreign to Tajik culture, a purported reference to Islamic clothing such as the hijab. Tajikistan´s efforts to regulate religious expression are part of a bigger campaign against extremism, though critics fear such controls could end up pushing some people toward radicalism.
With the Russian Language Waning in Central Asia, Will Other Languages Replace It?
Russian is still the most widespread foreign language in Kazakhstan, though its role is declining there, and across Central Asia in general. At the same time, the people of the region have been slow to learn other languages, in part due to economic factors such as slowing globalization, according to the Kazakhstani political analyst Zamir Karazhanov, who is head of the Kemel Arna Public Foundation. The language of cities Since declaring independence in 1991, all the counties of Central Asia have made promoting their national languages a priority. But foreign languages, which link the region with the rest of the world, have also historically been seen as critical. In practice, however, the study and use of foreign languages other than Russian is not widespread. The Russian language is losing its prominence in Kazakhstan as the number of ethnic Russians declines. According to official statistics, as of January 1, 2024, Russians made up 14.89% of the country’s population, down from close to 40% in 1989. Nevertheless, thanks to the education system and Kazakhstan’s proximity to Russia, the level of proficiency in Russian remains high. In Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Russian is a second official language. In Tajikistan, it is called the “language of interethnic communication”. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, however, it does not have an official status. More than 90% of Kazakhstanis know Russian to some degree, while 20% of the population considers it their native language. Meanwhile, those figures for Turkmenistan are 40% and 12% respectively. In Kyrgyzstan, about 44% know Russian and 5% consider it their native language; in Uzbekistan, it is about 50% and 2.7%; and in Tajikistan, 55% and 0.3%. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly spoken about the need to preserve the Russian language in Kazakhstan, and the unacceptability of language-based discrimination. Last year, he unveiled the International Russian Language Organization, established by the CIS Heads of State Council. “The new organization is open to all countries and, of course, very relevant from the point of view of global humanitarian cooperation,” explained Tokayev, while underlining that measures to promote the Russian language in the Eurasia region and elsewhere are congruous with the trend of strengthening national identities. “Kazakhstan will continue the policy of bolstering the status of the state language of Kazakh,” Tokayev said at the time. Today, Kazakhstan has many Russian-language media, while Russian remains the lingua franca at meetings among post-Soviet countries. Even though Russian is concentrated in big cities, all Kazakhstanis receive a significant amount of western and other foreign news from Russian sources. “Russian is spoken in most of Kazakhstan. In the biggest city, Almaty, communicating in Russian is not a problem. But, if you move 30-50 km outside the city, it gets harder to speak it. Russian is the language of cities and the language of interethnic interaction,” the political analyst Karazhanov told The Times of Central Asia. “Of course, the number of native speakers of the Kazakh language is growing, and the number of Russian speakers is declining, but Kazakh cannot yet be the language of interethnic communication. To raise its status, large investments are still needed, including accessible, preferably free, linguistic courses so people of other nationalities can learn Kazakh. This is a long process. Historically, the Russian-speaking population did not come into contact with Kazakh, except in the provinces where mainly Kazakhs lived. Overall, across the country, the opposite process [compared to now] was taking place. Currently, geopolitical events are a factor. After the announcement of mobilization in 2022 [for Russia's war in Ukraine], migrants poured into Kazakhstan from Russia, which increased the need for Russian,” Karazhanov added. The role of slowing global growth Central Asia has slowly adopted the English language. In a global ranking of English proficiency by the language education company Education First last year, Kazakhstan ranked 104th out of 113 countries surveyed, and 22nd out of 23 in Asia, behind Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan. In 2022, Uzbekistan overtook its Central Asian neighbors in terms of English proficiency, though that meant just 89th place overall – its score was still considered “very low”. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan was ranked 91st, Kazakhstan 99th, and Tajikistan 106th. In the breakdown by city, Tashkent trailed Astana and Bishkek, which nevertheless had a low score. “The prevalence of foreign languages, including English and Chinese, which are in great demand abroad, is linked to the population’s need for them. People need these languages mainly for work, and/or to leave [Kazakhstan] to live permanently in another country. Even if the study of foreign languages goes up, this will not lead to an increase in the level of proficiency in them inside Kazakhstan, since it is linked to intentions to leave the country. For someone who [fluently] speaks a foreign language to stay in Kazakhstan, he needs a job where that language is required. In turn, the availability of such jobs mainly depends on investors who are native speakers of a foreign language, and there are not so many of them right now. Investment is rising, but we are not seeing an influx of foreign companies in which big capital would flow not to one group of industries (in particular, extractive industries), but to many groups or entire sectors of the economy at once. Chinese and English are needed in mining and the oil sector; in other areas, foreign businesses find translators, meaning this is not a mass process; the population [at large] is not included in it. In other words, a foreign language is needed either to travel abroad or to work for a foreign company, which is not very common. Therefore, the percentage of people who speak foreign languages remains low, since the population does not particularly need them for ordinary life,” says Karazhanov. Karazhanov also attributes the slow adoption of the English language in Central Asia to the lack of colonial influence in the region, meaning the language was not studied for generations. Today, he believes, the study of foreign languages is slowing, as the pace of globalization and economic growth weakens broadly, together with “people shooting all around.” In the near future, Karazhanov argues that no foreign language in Kazakhstan and in the region as a whole will be spoken proficiently by 20-30% of the population. On the contrary, if the geopolitical tensions fail to abate, the role of regional languages, including Russian, will only rise. Back to the roots Over the years, proposals have been made to add Chinese and Arabic to the compulsory study of Kazakh, Russian, and English in Kazakhstani schools, though they were never considered at the government level. Experts say interest among Kazakhstanis in learning Chinese, Turkish, Arabic, Korean, and even Uzbek (in areas along the two countries' border) is growing steadily but very slowly. The situation in Kazakhstan, Karazhanov thinks, can be extrapolated to the whole of Central Asia, though not without some reservations. “A person begins to learn a foreign language only when he faces a problem. He wants to get something, but first, he needs to learn another language. There is no such acute problem in the countries of Central Asia at this point. It is not that investors are coming, paying extra money to study [a language] and hiring huge staffs who speak Chinese or English. In terms of investment, Kazakhstan ranks first in Central Asia, so if there is no such need here, then there is definitely none in Kyrgyzstan or Uzbekistan,” the analyst noted. The situation with the Russian language varies across the region. Kazakhstan’s neighbors have always had a lower share of Russian speakers, so it is no surprise that Uzbek and Tajik are gradually becoming the lingua franca in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In Kazakhstan, the transition to Kazakh is also proceeding relatively painlessly, without the bumps in the road that one might expect amid such a major shift in the national makeup of the population. As for other foreign languages, Arabic is of interest as the language of the sacred texts of Islam, while Turkish has an appeal given the Turkic roots of the Kazakh language. Demand for learning them is growing steadily, explained Karazhanov, and depends less on economic and demographic factors. “I cannot say that the number of Muslims in Kazakhstan is increasing since it surged back in the 1990s, but some religious people are really trying to learn Arabic. Others are starting to learn Korean so that they can go to South Korea to work. There is a Korean diaspora in Kazakhstan, which has its own language schools, and it is not only Korean Kazakhstanis who study there. Many Kazakhstanis travel to Turkey to buy real estate. But, as I said, people must need to learn languages; if there is none, then the percentage of those who speak them will grow to some small figure and plateau there,” Karazhanov concluded.
Deadly Attacks in Russia Spark Fears of Extremism Amid Ethnic Tensions
On August 23 2024, four prison employees were killed after several prisoners staged a revolt in the remote IK-19 Surovikino penal colony in the southwestern Volgograd region of Russia. Special forces stormed the facility and “neutralized” the attackers, whom the Russian media named as Temur Khusinov, 29, and Ramzidin Toshev, 28, from Uzbekistan, and Nazirchon Toshov, 28, and Rustamchon Navruzi, 23, from Tajikistan. In a mobile phone video released by the perpetrators, the attackers identified themselves as members of Islamic State, claiming their actions were fueled by a desire to avenge the mistreatment of Muslims. The footage starkly depicted prison officials lying in pools of blood, while other clips showed the attackers moving freely through the prison courtyard. With the twentieth anniversary of the Beslan school massacre - perpetrated by members of a Chechen separatist group called the Riyad as-Saliheen Martyrs’ Brigade - drawing near, tensions in Russia are running high, with the perceived threat from extremism leading to a wave of xenophobia. The Crocus City Hall attack, which allegedly involved Tajiks, served to stoke ethnic tensions in Russia, leading to backlash by nationalists. Faced with such conditions and prejudice, an exodus of migrant workers during a time of war has left Russia with a dearth of human capital. Through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia is working with the C5 to detect and combat violent extremists, some of whom are illegally entering Central Asia before traveling to Russia. The Central Asian states, which are secular, are meanwhile trying to balance rights to religious freedom with blocking the malinfluence of oppressive and potentially violent ideologies. Three Central Asian countries border Afghanistan, and both the U.S. and the UNODC are working with Tajikistan to counter terrorism and violent extremism. While some extremist groups see Central Asia as a fertile recruiting ground, a UN report from 2023 noted that “Regional Member States estimated current ISIL-K strength at between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters, of whom approximately 200 were of Central Asian origin.” Despite these low numbers, however, the fact that some observers continue to link Islamic State Khorasan Province to the countries of Central Asia - even though the terrorist organization has purely Afghan roots - means that Central Asia once again finds itself at the center of a nexus of international security challenges.
Sunkar Podcast
Kazakhstan’s Return to Nuclear Power
