ACRA Raises Kazakhstan Economic Growth Forecast

The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) has released its updated forecast for Kazakhstan’s economy for 2026-2028, projecting annual growth of 5.3-5.9%. These figures exceed the government’s recent targets. According to the published report, the next three years will mark a period of accelerated expansion, driven by industry and construction, alongside strengthening value chains in services and agribusiness. The government's earlier forecast projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026, followed by stabilization at 5.3%. While ACRA offers a more optimistic outlook, it notes that achieving the targeted 6% growth will require a sharp increase in investment activity and a boost in foreign exchange earnings from exports. The agency also warns that accelerating growth may carry the risk of economic overheating and a new wave of inflation. Investment remains the weak link in Kazakhstan’s growth model. From 2021 to 2025, investment accounted for only 15% of GDP, significantly lower than in comparable economies and previous periods of rapid expansion. For example, during 2010-2014, investment levels held at 18%, and in earlier years, they reached as high as 20-22%. Without restoring higher investment levels, sustaining growth above 5.5% could prove difficult. Inflation risks also remain elevated. Contributing factors include household inflation expectations, imported inflation from neighboring countries, accelerated lending, and rising global food prices. Nevertheless, ACRA forecasts inflation to decline from 11.8% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, 6.2% in 2027, and 5.1% in 2028. The tenge is expected to gradually weaken to 555 per $ in 2026, 574 in 2027, and 594 in 2028. ACRA highlights three major risks over the next three years. The first is export and logistics vulnerabilities. Kazakhstan’s primary oil export route continues to run through Novorossiysk, and any disruption along this corridor would quickly impact the current account and put downward pressure on the tenge. The second risk concerns fiscal discipline. Rising expenditures are increasing reliance on transfers from the National Fund, which could reignite inflationary pressures if not managed prudently. The third is the depreciation of the Russian ruble. A weaker ruble boosts imports, reduces exports, and worsens Kazakhstan’s trade balance. While ACRA considers the likelihood of these risks occurring simultaneously to be low, their combined impact could seriously challenge Kazakhstan’s growth outlook. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 6% in 2025, surpassing the $300 billion threshold for the first time.

From Overtime to Downtime: Tracking Work and Leisure in Kazakhstan

Analysts at Finprom.kz have examined average working hours across different employment sectors in Kazakhstan, along with how people typically spend their leisure time. Standard Hours and Overtime As of the first quarter of 2025, Kazakhstan had 9.3 million registered employed citizens, a 1.3% increase compared to the same period last year. The majority, approximately 7.7 million people, work standard hours ranging from 36 to 40 per week, representing a 7.5% year-on-year increase. Conversely, the number of people working overtime declined to 1.2 million, a 4.9% decrease. On average, Kazakhstanis now work 39 hours per week, an increase of one hour from last year. Men work slightly more, averaging 40 hours weekly, while women work around 38. Employees are more likely to work overtime, logging an average of 41 hours per week, compared to 36 hours for the self-employed. Most and Least Time-Intensive Sectors Mining remains the sector with the longest working week, averaging 43 hours. Those in wholesale and retail trade, transport, logistics, and administrative services average 42 hours. Employees in manufacturing, water supply and waste management, construction, and hospitality work about 41 hours weekly. At the other end of the spectrum, workers in agriculture, forestry, and fishing average 33 hours per week. Those in finance, insurance, and education work around 39 hours. Professions with the Heaviest Workload Among occupational groups, industrial, construction, and transport workers, as well as operators and drivers, top the list with an average of 42 hours per week. Trade and service sector employees follow closely at 41 hours. Farmers, fishermen, and unskilled laborers average 36 hours, while managers, civil servants, and technical staff work around 40 hours. Specialists average 39 hours weekly. Approximately 332,800 Kazakhstanis work less than a standard week, half the number from the previous year. The most common reasons include lack of work (122,800 people), reduced hours (56,700), sufficient income (34,200), employer decisions (31,500), and flexible schedules (18,300). How Kazakhstanis Spend Their Day According to official 2024 statistics, the average Kazakhstani spends most of their weekday attending to personal needs such as sleep, hygiene, and meals, totaling 12 hours and 6 minutes on workdays and 13 hours and 57 minutes on weekends. Sleep takes up the largest share: 8 hours and 48 minutes on weekdays and more than 10 hours on weekends. Meals and drinks occupy around 1 hour and 49 minutes during the week and 2 hours and 5 minutes on days off. Hygiene and self-care account for approximately 1 hour and 21 minutes on weekdays and 1 hour and 33 minutes on weekends. Work ranks second in terms of daily time use, averaging 5 hours and 16 minutes on weekdays and just 36 minutes on weekends. Leisure activities—including cultural events, sports, reading, and media consumption—rank third, taking up 2 hours and 40 minutes on weekdays and nearly 4 hours on weekends. Kazakhstanis also devote considerable time to household responsibilities, especially on weekends, spending about 3 hours and 32 minutes on unpaid domestic work and family care.