Uzbekistan’s Economy to Remain Strong in 2026, IMF Forecasts 6.8% Growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest assessment of Uzbekistan’s economy, reporting strong growth in 2025 alongside recommendations for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms. According to the IMF, Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, driven by robust domestic consumption and investment. Growth was broad-based, with the services and construction sectors expanding the fastest. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. Inflation showed a downward trend, with annual consumer price growth falling to 7.3% by the end of 2025, compared to 9.8% a year earlier. The IMF attributed this to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in May 2024, a stronger national currency, and what it described as an “appropriately tight monetary policy stance.” Core inflation also declined over the same period. External balances improved. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP, supported by strong exports and remittance inflows. International reserves remained stable, covering around 13 months of imports, while the fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s 3% target. “The economic outlook remains favorable,” the IMF said, while pointing to increasing global uncertainties, particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East. Economic growth is projected at 6.8% in 2026, before moderating to around 6% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026, partly due to higher global oil prices, before easing toward the target level in 2027. The IMF stressed that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability, noting that the policy rate has been held at 14% since March 2025. The report also highlighted risks related to global economic conditions, including trade disruptions and commodity price volatility, as well as domestic challenges such as potential pressure for increased public spending and vulnerabilities linked to state-owned enterprises. The IMF recommended limiting additional government spending in 2026 to avoid fuelling inflation. It also called for targeted social support measures instead of broad subsidies, alongside continued reforms in tax policy, public financial management, and state-owned enterprises. Further recommendations included accelerating the privatisation of state-owned banks, strengthening financial sector oversight, and improving governance standards. The IMF also emphasised the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb external shocks. The findings build on last year’s IMF assessment, which reported 7.6% growth in the first nine months of 2025, also driven by strong consumption and investment, while inflation showed signs of easing.
