Central Bank of Uzbekistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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International Monetary Fund

IMF Growth Forecast for Uzbekistan Warns of Inflation and Global Risks

Uzbekistan’s economy performed strongly in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting growth across sectors. Inflation fell and the fiscal deficit narrowed. The Fund urged policymakers to keep monetary policy tight and continue reforms as geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty add risks. Uzbekistan’s real GDP expanded by 7.7% in 2025, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment. The unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year to 4.8%. Growth was supported by rapid expansion in services and construction. Consumer price inflation declined from 9.8% at the end of 2024 to 7.3% at the end of 2025. The IMF attributed the improvement to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in 2024 and the appreciation of the Uzbek som against the U.S. dollar. Tight monetary policy by the Central Bank also helped bring down inflation. Core inflation declined during the year. External balances improved as the current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP. Strong exports and remittance inflows supported the decline. High commodity prices also helped. International reserves remained at comfortable levels, equivalent to around 13 months of imports. The fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s target of 3%. The IMF expects economic growth to remain resilient in 2026, forecasting GDP growth of 6.8%. Continued reforms and investment are expected to support activity. Remittances and elevated gold prices should also help sustain growth. The Fund projects growth will moderate to around 6% in 2027 as domestic demand gradually slows. Despite the positive outlook, risks have increased because of the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy. Uzbekistan has limited direct trade and remittance links with countries affected by the conflict. However, higher oil prices and trade disruptions could affect the country indirectly through key trading partners. Weaker global growth could add further pressure. The IMF warned that inflation is likely to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026. Higher global oil prices, combined with strong domestic demand, could slow disinflation. The Fund recommended that the Central Bank keep its policy rate at a restrictive level and tighten monetary policy further if inflationary pressures persist. The Fund advised the government to avoid spending increases beyond those already planned in the budget. Any support measures linked to the Middle East conflict should be temporary and targeted toward vulnerable groups, rather than broad subsidies or price controls. The IMF called for faster privatization of state-owned commercial banks and enterprises. It also recommended stronger corporate governance and continued work to improve fiscal transparency and debt management. The Fund highlighted labor market challenges, including low female labor force participation and skills mismatches. High levels of informal employment remain another concern. Further progress in governance reform and competition policy could help attract additional private investment. The IMF said Uzbekistan’s commitments linked to accession to the World Trade Organization could also support long-term economic growth. The country enters 2026 from a position of economic strength, but maintaining stability and continuing...

FinTech

Uzbekistan to Host Inaugural Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum in August

Uzbekistan is set to host the inaugural Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum in August, a new international event aimed at advancing the country’s role as a regional hub for financial technology and innovation. According to a joint announcement by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and the Global Finance & Technology Network (GFTN), the forum will take place in Tashkent from August 24 to 26, 2026. The event will be held at Central Asian Expo Uzbekistan and the Islamic Civilization Centre. It is expected to bring together policymakers, regulators, investors, entrepreneurs, and technology leaders from Central Asia and beyond. The organizers describe the forum as Uzbekistan’s flagship platform for discussions on finance, innovation, and public policy. It is being launched as the country pursues an ambitious strategy to become a leading fintech center in the region. Uzbekistan’s financial technology sector has expanded rapidly in recent years, driven by growing digital adoption and a young population of more than 37 million people. According to the organizers, nearly 70% of the population now uses digital services, creating favorable conditions for the development of financial technologies. The forum comes as Uzbekistan implements a presidential strategy for the sector through 2030. The plan includes attracting $1 billion in foreign investment, training more than 5,000 specialists, licensing more than 200 market participants, supporting more than 100 startup graduates from incubation programs, and testing digital currencies and stable tokens. The Central Bank has also announced plans to expand the country’s financial innovation infrastructure. These initiatives include the creation of a globally accessible Regulatory Sandbox 2.0, the Q-FINEX Quantum Finance Testbed, and a dedicated $50 million venture fund for fintech development. Authorities are also working on regulatory frameworks covering open banking, digital payments, buy now, pay later services, and cybersecurity resilience. The three-day forum will be organized around five main themes: open banking, digital assets and stablecoins, cross-border payments, Islamic finance, and innovation and investment. The event’s theme, “Al-Jabr,” references the Arabic concept of “bringing parts together,” which gave rise to algebra, and honors the legacy of the ninth-century scholar Al-Khwarizmi, who was born in Khwarezm, in present-day Uzbekistan. Organizers say the theme points to the forum’s goal of linking finance with technology policy. The forum is being co-hosted with Ant International and joins GFTN’s global network of events, which includes the Singapore FinTech Festival, the Point Zero Forum in Zurich, GFTN Forum Japan, and the Black Swan Summits. “Innovation flourishes when trust, talent and capital converge,” said Sopnendu Mohanty, group CEO of GFTN. He said the forum would help connect global expertise with regional ambitions and support Central Asia’s emergence as a center for financial innovation. GFTN is a Singapore-based not-for-profit organization established by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in 2024. It promotes financial innovation and inclusion through partnerships with public- and private-sector institutions.

Economy

Uzbekistan’s Economy to Remain Strong in 2026, IMF Forecasts 6.8% Growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest assessment of Uzbekistan’s economy, reporting strong growth in 2025 alongside recommendations for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms. According to the IMF, Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, driven by robust domestic consumption and investment. Growth was broad-based, with the services and construction sectors expanding the fastest. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. Inflation showed a downward trend, with annual consumer price growth falling to 7.3% by the end of 2025, compared to 9.8% a year earlier. The IMF attributed this to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in May 2024, a stronger national currency, and what it described as an “appropriately tight monetary policy stance.” Core inflation also declined over the same period. External balances improved. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP, supported by strong exports and remittance inflows. International reserves remained stable, covering around 13 months of imports, while the fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s 3% target. “The economic outlook remains favorable,” the IMF said, while pointing to increasing global uncertainties, particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East. Economic growth is projected at 6.8% in 2026, before moderating to around 6% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026, partly due to higher global oil prices, before easing toward the target level in 2027. The IMF stressed that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability, noting that the policy rate has been held at 14% since March 2025. The report also highlighted risks related to global economic conditions, including trade disruptions and commodity price volatility, as well as domestic challenges such as potential pressure for increased public spending and vulnerabilities linked to state-owned enterprises. The IMF recommended limiting additional government spending in 2026 to avoid fuelling inflation. It also called for targeted social support measures instead of broad subsidies, alongside continued reforms in tax policy, public financial management, and state-owned enterprises. Further recommendations included accelerating the privatisation of state-owned banks, strengthening financial sector oversight, and improving governance standards. The IMF also emphasised the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb external shocks. The findings build on last year’s IMF assessment, which reported 7.6% growth in the first nine months of 2025, also driven by strong consumption and investment, while inflation showed signs of easing.

Gold

Uzbekistan’s International Reserves Decline After Seven Months of Growth

Uzbekistan’s gold and foreign currency reserves declined in March after seven consecutive months of growth, according to data released by the Central Bank. As of April 1, the country’s total international reserves stood at more than $68.99 billion, marking a monthly decrease of over $8.09 billion, or around 10%. The Central Bank attributed the drop primarily to a fall in global gold prices during March, when the price per ounce declined from $5,174.1 to $4,553.95. Gold remains the largest component of Uzbekistan’s reserves. Its total value fell by $6.82 billion to $60.85 billion, ending an eight-month growth streak. At the same time, the physical volume of gold held by the Central Bank continued to increase, rising by 0.3 million troy ounces to reach 13.4 million troy ounces, or approximately 416.8 tons. Foreign currency reserves also declined over the same period. In March, they dropped by $1.26 billion, or 14.3%, to $7.57 billion. Of this amount, $1.3 billion is held in foreign central banks and the International Monetary Fund, while $4.71 billion is deposited in foreign commercial banks. In addition, the value of foreign securities purchased by the Central Bank reached $1.545 billion, accounting for 2.24% of total reserves. The latest figures follow a period of strong growth in Uzbekistan’s reserves. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the country’s international reserves rose sharply in 2025, increasing by $25.1 billion to reach a record $66.3 billion as of January 1, 2026. This growth, equivalent to a 61% increase over the year, was largely driven by high global gold prices, alongside gains in foreign currency holdings.

Economy

Uzbekistan’s International Reserves Hit Record $66.3 Billion

Uzbekistan’s international reserves surged in 2025, rising by $25.1 billion to reach a record $66.3 billion as of January 1, 2026, according to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. This 61% increase compared to the start of the year was primarily driven by rising global gold prices, although foreign currency reserves also grew significantly. In December alone, gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by $5.08 billion, an 8.3% month-on-month gain. This marks the highest reserve level since the Central Bank began publishing official statistics in 2013. Gold remained the dominant contributor to the increase. According to the Central Bank, the value of gold in the country’s reserves rose by more than $4.23 billion in December, reaching $55.09 billion. The physical volume of gold holdings also expanded, growing from 12.2 million to 12.6 million troy ounces, an increase of 0.4 million ounces in just one month. Earlier in 2025, Uzbekistan’s gold strategy diverged from global trends. In September, the World Gold Council reported that Uzbekistan was the only country to record net gold sales. While most central banks were increasing their reserves, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan reduced its holdings during that period.