EBRD Projects Central Asia Economies 2025 Growth at 6.1%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects that the economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan will grow by an average of 6.1% in 2025. According to the EBRD, the region’s momentum is being driven by strong industrial output, robust domestic demand, higher investment, rising wages, and continued remittance inflows. In 2026, growth is expected to remain positive but moderate to 5.2%. The report warns, however, that volatility in commodity prices, reliance on remittances, and dependence on Russian and Chinese markets pose ongoing risks to stability. Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, is forecast to expand by 5.7% in 2025. Growth has been fueled by increased oil production at the Tengiz field, which boosted industrial activity and wholesale trade. The construction sector grew by 18.4% in the first half of the year, reflecting large infrastructure projects and residential development. Even so, the EBRD cautions that over-reliance on Russian transit routes and global commodity fluctuations could slow growth to 4.5% in 2026. The Kyrgyz Republic is projected to remain one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, with GDP expected to rise by 9.0% in 2025. The economy expanded by 11.4% in the first half of the year, supported by strong public investment, remittance inflows, and rising wages. Manufacturing, trade, and construction are key drivers, while tourism is growing through new investments. Growth is forecast to ease to 6.0% in 2026 but is expected to remain resilient unless remittance flows decline. Mongolia’s economy is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025. A 35.6% rebound in agriculture after two difficult years helped offset slower mining activity and weaker coal prices, while copper production increased. Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.1% in the first half of 2025, driven by trade, agriculture, transport, and a doubling of mining output. Remittances rose by 64%, and sharp wage growth boosted household consumption. The EBRD forecasts GDP growth of 7.5% in 2025, moderating to 5.7% in 2026. Continued support from international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF is expected to sustain growth, although reliance on remittances remains a structural vulnerability. Turkmenistan is projected to grow by 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by trade, transport, services, and construction. Official data show capital investment up 15.6% year on year. Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to expand by 6.7% in 2025, backed by strong domestic demand, rising wages, and a 28.7% increase in remittances. Services grew by more than 8%, while industrial output was buoyed by high gold prices and stronger manufacturing in food and metals. Growth is projected to ease slightly to 6.0% in 2026 but will remain supported by diversified manufacturing and stable foreign investment.

Tajikistan Revises Export Duties to Boost Domestic Processing

The government of Tajikistan has approved revised export duties on raw materials and semi-processed goods, a move that has prompted considerable discussion within the business community. The changes, which directly affect exporters and producers, are intended to stimulate domestic processing and reduce the export of unrefined resources. The key reform replaces fixed tariffs with duties calculated as a percentage of a product’s market value. Previously, export duties were set at: €300 per ton for leather 20% or €100 per ton for silk and cocoons 10% for cotton fiber Under the new rules, export duties fluctuate with global market prices, allowing for more adaptive regulation. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the reform is designed to promote higher-value production within Tajikistan. “The goal of this resolution is to reduce the export of raw materials and support the production of high-value goods,” said First Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade Ashurboy Solekhzoda. The revised duties apply to a range of commodities including cotton fiber, leather, silk, cocoons, minerals, concentrates, plant juices, and other semi-processed goods. However, around 34 categories of raw materials remain exempt from export duties. Tajikistan’s approach mirrors policies implemented in neighboring states. Kazakhstan imposes export duties on 44 product categories, including leather, wool, scrap metal, sunflower seeds, and oil. In Uzbekistan, export duties apply to over 86 types of goods, with some rates reaching as high as 100%. Such measures aim to reduce reliance on raw material exports, stimulate domestic value-added industries, and enhance export competitiveness. Economists and industry observers say the new policy could incentivize companies to expand local processing operations and reduce dependence on commodity exports. It may also enhance Tajikistan’s attractiveness to foreign investors interested in long-term, value-driven partnerships. Over time, the revised export framework is expected to help strengthen the national economy and integrate Tajikistan more deeply into regional supply chains across Central Asia.