Kazakhstan’s Domestic Trade Growth Slows as Consumer Demand Weakens
The growth of domestic trade in Kazakhstan slowed markedly in early 2026, reinforcing signs of weakening consumer activity and increased business caution. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the trade sector expanded by only 3.4% in January–February, compared with 6% during the same period a year earlier. Growth slowed significantly, affecting both wholesale and retail trade. Analysts at Halyk Finance believe the trend reflects deeper economic processes rather than a short-term fluctuation. “The dynamics at the start of the year point to a cooling of aggregate demand and economic activity,” Halyk Finance said. Wholesale trade, a key indicator of business activity, showed the most pronounced slowdown. Growth fell to 3.8%, down from 6.6% a year earlier. In the first two months of the year, the volume of wholesale transactions reached $9.6 billion. However, the structure of trade indicates a predominance of non-food and industrial goods, reflecting weaker corporate demand. Experts also note that declining oil production has exerted additional pressure on the sector, directly affecting wholesale sales volumes. The situation in retail trade remains mixed. Overall growth stood at 2.6%, driven largely by large retail chains. Sales in organized retail increased by 3.7%, while turnover among individual entrepreneurs and traditional markets continued to decline, falling by 1%. This trend reflects ongoing structural changes in the sector. The market is gradually shifting in favor of large retail players, while small businesses face growing competitive pressure. Changes in consumer spending patterns are also evident. Sales of food products rose by 9.1%, whereas non-food sales increased by only 0.2%, despite accounting for the majority of retail turnover. This suggests that households are becoming more cautious, focusing spending on essential goods and postponing purchases of more expensive items. Another indicator of weakening demand is the rise in inventory levels. As of early March, inventories totaled approximately $2.5 billion, equivalent to around 77 days of sales. Combined with slower turnover, this points to a softening of consumer demand. Overall, analysts note that domestic trade continues to grow, but the pace of expansion is slowing and becoming less sustainable. Business activity remains subdued, consumers are saving more, and the market is gradually shifting toward more formal retail participants. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the government is considering support measures for key sectors, including dairy and baking, in an effort to curb inflation and sustain demand.
