Kazakhstan Sees No Major Risks From UAE Exit From OPEC+

Kazakhstan does not expect major economic turbulence following the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ agreement, despite the country’s continued dependence on global oil prices, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said. The UAE announced that it would leave OPEC on May 1, citing disagreements over existing production quotas. Abu Dhabi plans to increase oil output amid concerns over possible supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of shortages on the global market. The departure of one of the world’s largest oil producers has fueled concerns about a potential drop in crude prices and the possibility of a price war among exporters. However, Zhumangarin said international analysts remain cautious in assessing the broader implications of the move. “Some are saying this marks the end of the OPEC era. In reality, international expert assessments and forecasts remain very cautious regarding whether this could lead to a price war and whether such a scenario is even possible,” he told reporters. According to the minister, even if the UAE raises production from the current 3.5 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels per day, the global market would continue to balance itself through other major producers and alternative suppliers. Commenting on the possible impact of lower oil prices on Kazakhstan’s economy, Zhumangarin noted that the government traditionally prepares several macroeconomic development scenarios. “This year, the pessimistic forecast was based on an oil price of $50 per barrel,” he said. The minister also pointed out that oil prices had exceeded $100 per barrel several times this year amid tensions in the Middle East. According to Zhumangarin, Astana retains the ability to adjust budget spending if conditions on the oil market deteriorate. On the eve of the US-Israeli war on Iran in late February, the industry benchmark Brent crude was trading at approximately $70 to $73 per barrel; as of May 11, it had risen to slightly below $104 per barrel. In April, OPEC+ countries increased oil production by 206,000 barrels per day, including a rise in Kazakhstan’s quota from 1.569 million to 1.599 million barrels per day by June. Kazakhstan’s authorities would like to see further growth in national oil production, however, a lack of viable export routes aside from Russia, as well as the fallout from Ukrainian attacks on the Russian port of Novorossiysk in November last year, have limited Kazakhstan's ability to fully exploit the recent rise in prices.

Kazakhstan Plans New Measures to Attract Highly Skilled Foreign Workers

Kazakhstan is preparing to introduce new mechanisms to attract highly qualified foreign specialists as part of a broader effort to increase the country’s openness to talent, investors, and entrepreneurs. The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has drafted amendments to the country’s migration legislation following a presidential decree aimed at modernizing migration policy and addressing labor shortages. The proposed legislation introduces a targeted recruitment system for in-demand foreign specialists based on the current needs of the domestic labor market. A key element of the reform is the creation of a government-approved list of priority professions. The list is expected to include specialists in information technology, healthcare, education, and culture, sectors currently experiencing some of the most acute labor shortages. The draft law also establishes clearer and more transparent procedures for hiring foreign professionals at the request of employers. Authorities are placing particular emphasis on improving conditions for foreign specialists working and living in Kazakhstan, including through an expansion of the Altyn (Golden) Visa program. Under the proposed changes, foreign specialists would be eligible to apply for resident status after a specified period of employment in Kazakhstan. The status would provide access to tax incentives, financial services, healthcare and education opportunities, as well as the right to work outside the country’s foreign labor quota system. Officials say the reforms are intended not only to address labor shortages, but also to facilitate the transfer of skills and expertise to local workers and accelerate technological modernization. In the longer term, the government hopes the measures will help position Kazakhstan as a regional hub for skilled professionals and advanced technologies. The Labor Ministry is also working to significantly expand the list of in-demand professions from 51 to 174 specialisms. The expanded list would include occupations in the nuclear industry, energy, biotechnology, genomic medicine, water management, irrigation, and healthcare. Authorities say the initiative is designed to strengthen Kazakhstan’s competitiveness in the global race for talent and support the development of strategically important sectors of the economy. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan had approved its 2026 quota for foreign labor at 0.25% of the country’s total workforce. The quota includes permits for 726 senior executives and deputies, 3,402 heads of structural divisions, 5,893 specialists, and 3,131 skilled workers. An additional 4,994 permits were allocated for seasonal labor.