Russian Inflows Drive Kyrgyz Remittance Surge

Kyrgyzstan recorded a sharp increase in remittance inflows during the first five months of 2025, reaching USD 1.367 billion —a 16% rise compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). The increase was particularly notable in April and May, traditionally high-transfer months ahead of the summer season. In May alone, remittances totaled USD 299 million, up from USD 253 million in May 2024. Russia remains the dominant source of remittances, accounting for 94% of total inflows between January and May. The NBKR reported USD 1.2 billion in transfers from Russia during this period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of USD 188 million. This growth comes despite a significant drop in the officially registered number of Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia from 650,000 in previous years to around 350,000 in 2025. Unofficial estimates, however, suggest the actual figure may exceed one million. The higher remittance volume suggests increased per-capita transfers or improved earnings among Kyrgyz migrants. In 2023, remittances from Russia stood at USD 2.532 billion. Even as the migrant workforce declined sharply in 2024, total transfers from Russia rose by USD 34 million, indicating persistent reliance on income from abroad. Other countries contributed relatively little to Kyrgyzstan’s remittance inflows. Transfers from the United States edged up to USD 27.6 million in the first five months of 2025, an increase of USD 600,000 from the previous year. In contrast, remittances from South Korea and Turkey declined sharply. Transfers from South Korea fell from USD 28.2 million to just USD 1 million, while Turkey’s contribution dropped from USD 6.9 million to USD 4 million. Remittances continue to play a central role in Kyrgyzstan’s economy, historically making up more than 30 percent of GDP. Yet the country’s ongoing reliance on Russia for these financial inflows highlights its exposure to external risks such as geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and changes in foreign labor market policies. Looking ahead, the NBKR expects the upward trend in remittances to persist through 2025. However, long-term sustainability may hinge on diversifying migration destinations and strengthening domestic employment opportunities.

Kyrgyz Lending Surges 55% as Consumer Demand Fuels Growth

From January to May 2025, the volume of new loans issued by commercial banks in Kyrgyzstan rose by 55 percent, according to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) June macroeconomic forecast. The sharpest increase was recorded in consumer lending, which more than doubled during the period, rising by 2.1 times. As a result, the total loan portfolio of the Kyrgyz banking sector grew by nearly one-third. “High lending rates are supporting domestic demand: retail trade and public catering increased by 25.3 percent during the first five months of the year. Consumer activity will continue to drive economic growth,” the EDB report  states. Similar findings were previously released by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR), though with some differences in specific figures. According to the NBKR, net profits of Kyrgyz banks from January to May totaled 12 billion som (approximately 137 million USD). The overall loan portfolio reached 404 billion som (around 4.6 billion USD), with overdue loans amounting to 7.3 billion som (83.5 million USD), or 1.8 percent of the total. The deposit base also showed strong growth: citizens deposited roughly 700 billion som (8 billion USD), reflecting a 17.7 percent increase since the start of the year. Efforts to reduce dollarization have also shown progress. The share of foreign currency assets in banks’ loan portfolios fell by 1.5 percentage points to 18.5 percent. Meanwhile, the proportion of household deposits held in foreign currency declined by 4.6 percentage points to 38.4 percent. According to EDB analysts, several key factors are driving Kyrgyzstan’s economic momentum. These include rising global gold prices, strong domestic consumption, and increased investment. Based on these trends, the bank has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan upward by 1.6 percentage points. The country’s economy is now projected to grow by 10.3 percent this year.