Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth Tops 4% in First Half of 2026 Despite Lower Oil Output

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026, driven primarily by strong growth in non-oil sectors despite a decline in crude oil production, according to the Ministry of National Economy, citing data from the Bureau of National Statistics. Economic growth accelerated from 3.7% recorded during the first five months of the year, while manufacturing continued to outperform the broader economy. According to the ministry, real GDP growth reached 4.1% in January-June, even as oil production fell 8.4% compared with the same period last year. “The non-oil sector remains the main driver of growth, expanding by more than 5% during the first half of the year,” the ministry said. “More than 80% of GDP growth came from manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport.” Construction remained the fastest-growing sector, with output increasing 15.2% year on year. Kazakhstan commissioned 8.5 million square meters of housing during the first six months of the year, 6.7% more than during the same period in 2025. Manufacturing output expanded 9.8% during the first half of the year. Total manufacturing production reached $34.1 billion, surpassing mining output of approximately $33.6 billion. Although growth slowed in metallurgy, which accounts for more than 40% of Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector, other industries posted strong gains. Production of fabricated metal products increased 39.9%, automobile manufacturing rose 31.6%, pharmaceutical output grew 43.6%, chemicals expanded 20.7%, rubber and plastic products increased 21.8%, construction materials rose 14.1%, and food production climbed 14.7%. Other sectors also maintained positive momentum. Trade expanded 5.7%, agriculture grew 4.4%, telecommunications services increased 4.3%, and transport and logistics services rose 7.1%. Growth in transport was supported by a 14% increase in auxiliary transport services, while rail freight volumes rose 4.9% and road freight transportation increased 11.4%. Investment activity also remained robust. Investment in fixed capital increased 9.6% compared with the first half of 2025. The strongest gains were recorded in information and communications, where investment more than doubled, electricity supply at 61.4%, manufacturing at 33.3%, agriculture at 24.6%, and transport at 11.6%. “The dynamic development of non-resource sectors and strong investment activity continue to provide a solid foundation for Kazakhstan’s economic growth,” the ministry said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s GDP could reach $320 billion by the end of 2026, up from $306 billion a year earlier. S&P Global Ratings projects GDP growth of 4.1% in 2026, down from 6.5% in 2025. Kazakhstan’s National Development Plan through 2029 sets a GDP growth target of 6.2% for 2026.