Tokayev’s Approval Rating Soars Amid Economic Gains, But Leadership Challenges Persist
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s approval rating remains consistently high, as confirmed by multiple surveys. However, experts note challenges within Kazakhstan's political landscape, including a lack of standout leaders and frequent staff turnover in government structures. High Approval Ratings Linked to Economic Well-Being In December 2024, the Social and Political Research Foundation "Strategy" released a survey showing President Tokayev's approval rating at 80.4%. This marks an increase from December 2023, when the foundation reported a 76.4% approval rating. Other studies corroborate these findings; for instance, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies found in July 2024 that 77.1% of Kazakhstanis trust the president. Explaining the methodology behind these surveys, Gulmira Ileuova, head of the Strategy Foundation and a member of the advisory public organization, the National Kurultai, told the Times of Central Asia: “The question to respondents is framed as, ‘Do you approve of the activities of the president, parliament, and government?’ Of those surveyed, 80.4% chose ‘I approve/Somewhat approve.’ Additionally, a separate project showed trust in the president at 77%.” Ileuova highlighted that Tokayev has faced numerous social, economic, and political challenges during his tenure. She noted a significant drop in his approval rating during December 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine restrictions were in effect. At that time, his approval rating fell to 40%. However, it rebounded in the subsequent years, reaching its highest level in 2024. By comparison, the government and parliament lag in terms of public support, with approval ratings of 59% and 54%, respectively. Ileuova explained that such gaps between the president’s popularity and that of other branches of government were also characteristic during the presidency of Nursultan Nazarbayev, which ended in 2019. The sustainability of these high ratings, she argued, hinges on the country’s economic performance. Historically, fluctuations in citizens’ well-being have had a direct impact on the approval ratings of political leaders. Criticism and Public Perception Despite the high ratings, Ileuova acknowledged skepticism toward her research. Critics often accuse survey organizations of bias, particularly those who inhabit what she describes as “information bubbles.” “On social media, individuals often focus solely on content that aligns with their negative perception of the president or the country’s overall situation. For example, some claim the government failed to help flood victims. While isolated cases exist, most victims received aid, and houses were built for them. Of course, there are valid reasons for criticism, but there are also many achievements that benefit ordinary people,” she explained. The connection between Tokayev’s approval rating and public living standards is evident. According to Strategy’s December 2024 survey, 29.6% of respondents described their financial situation as “good” or “very good,” while 15% rated theirs as “bad” or “very bad.” The majority - 52.8% - said their family’s financial situation is “average.” The Challenge of Personnel Management Experts point to difficulties in assessing President Tokayev’s personnel policies. While some figures - such as Mazhilis Speaker Yerlan Koshanov, Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev, State Counselor Yerlan Karin, and Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov - maintain steady approval ratings,...
