Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: Can a Third Party Break Through?

With only weeks remaining before Kazakhstan elects its new 145-member Kurultai on August 23, three national surveys point to a commanding victory for Adilet and place Auyl in second. The less certain question is whether Ak Zhol, Respublica, or another smaller party can clear the 5% electoral threshold and join them in the new legislature. Seven political parties have been registered to contest the vote. All 145 seats will be allocated through nationwide party lists, so small changes around the threshold could have a large effect on the composition of Kazakhstan's first Kurultai. The election is the first under Kazakhstan's new constitutional framework, which replaced the former bicameral parliament with a single-chamber Kurultai. The constitutional reform represents the most significant redesign of the country's political institutions in decades and places greater weight on political parties in the legislative process. The available polls differ in timing, method, sample size, and the proportion of undecided voters. Their exact figures are therefore not directly comparable. However, they agree on the broad shape of the race: Adilet leads by a wide margin, Auyl holds second place, and several parties remain close to or below the threshold. The latest Institute of Eurasian Integration survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 4,000 respondents in all 17 regions, as well as Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent, from July 16 to 26. Its stated margin of error was no more than 1.54%. That poll put Adilet on 65.1% and Auyl on 5.9%. Ak Zhol stood at 4.7%, marginally ahead of Respublica on 4.6%. The Nationwide Social Democratic Party, or NSDP, received 4.2%, the People's Party of Kazakhstan 4.1%, and the Baytaq Green Party 0.5%. An earlier DATAmetrics poll, commissioned by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, interviewed 8,000 people face-to-face from June 13 to July 2. It gave Adilet 54.2%, Auyl 7.3%, Ak Zhol 4.6%, and Respublica 3.4%. One in five respondents had not chosen a party. A telephone survey by the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development covered 1,200 respondents from July 8 to 20. It put Adilet on 64.8%, Auyl on 5.4%, Respublica on 4.8%, and Ak Zhol on 4.7%, with 10.9% undecided. Taken together, the surveys do not identify a clear third-place party. They do show that Ak Zhol and Respublica are the most consistent contenders for an additional place in the Kurultai. The latest Institute of Eurasian Integration poll also places the NSDP and the People's Party within striking distance, although the other surveys put both further behind. Adilet's lead is unsurprising. Although the Adilet Party was officially registered only this year, it is not starting from scratch. Amanat, formerly known as Nur Otan, merged into Adilet in June, transferring the organization and political network that dominated Kazakhstan throughout most of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev's rule. The merger also placed the former ruling party inside a new organization led by allies of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. It completed a change of political branding while preserving a strong pro-presidential electoral machine. The sharper contest is therefore not for...