Falling Exports Undermine Kazakhstan’s Economic Stability

Kazakhstan's export revenues fell by 9.2% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, dealing a fresh blow to the country’s economy. According to data compiled by Finprom.kz, total goods exports dropped to $29.8 billion, down from $32.8 billion, a loss of more than $3 billion. Commodity Dependency Drives Decline The steepest decline was recorded in the fuel and energy sector, which saw a shortfall of $2.4 billion. Total exports of oil, gas, and related raw materials amounted to $16.9 billion from January to May, a 12.6% decrease year-on-year. The downturn also extended to Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sectors: metallurgical exports fell by 6.5%, the chemical industry by 17.7%, and machine building by 21.7%. While the share of fuel and energy products in Kazakhstan’s export structure dropped to 56.9% in January–May 2025, down from the 65–67% range seen between 2019 and 2024, this shift was not driven by a rise in high value-added goods. These accounted for just 13.5% of total exports. Oil and Metals Lead Revenue Losses Oil was the primary source of lost export revenue. The volume of crude shipments declined by 6.6%, from 31.2 to 29.1 million tons, while export earnings fell by 13.9%, costing the country $2.6 billion. Other key raw material categories also recorded substantial losses: refined copper exports fell by 20.6%, copper ores and concentrates by 26.8%, iron ore by 16.4%, aluminum by 10.4%, and uranium by 24.2%. Only a few sectors posted gains. Exports of ferroalloys rose by 8.1%, wheat and meslin by 58.3%, and rolled iron by 13.1%. One standout performer was heat-generating assemblies for nuclear power plants produced in Ust-Kamenogorsk, their exports nearly doubled and are supplied exclusively to China. Trade Imbalance Worsens The export slump contributed to a broader contraction in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade. Total trade turnover from January to May stood at $53.5 billion, down 4.5% from the previous year. Imports, however, increased by 2.2%, further widening the trade gap. Kazakhstan has recorded lower export volumes each month of 2025 compared to 2024. In January, exports were down nearly 14%. Although the gap narrowed slightly in subsequent months, May figures remained below last year's levels. Italy continues to be Kazakhstan’s largest export market, accounting for 23.1% of total exports. Despite an 11% decline in volume, Italian purchases totaled $6.9 billion. China is the second-largest destination, increasing its share from 17.4% to 17.6%, with $5.2 billion in imports. Russia ranks third, importing $2.9 billion in goods, including automobiles, chemical products, and metal ores. Analysts warn that Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on raw materials and its low share of high-tech exports represent systemic risks. Without substantial industrial modernization and entry into new markets, the country remains vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations, endangering long-term macroeconomic stability.