State Budget - The Times Of Central Asia

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Excise Tax Revenues

Alcohol and Tobacco Lead Kyrgyzstan’s Excise Tax Revenues

Alcohol and tobacco products continue to be the primary sources of excise tax revenue for Kyrgyzstan’s state budget, according to the Ministry of Finance’s final report on budget revenues for the first 11 months of 2025. The report highlights excise taxes as one of the most stable and predictable sources of state income. From January through November 2025, total excise tax revenues exceeded $222 million. Alcohol producers remain the top contributors. During the reporting period, they transferred $38 million to the budget. Vodka producers accounted for the largest share at $25.5 million, while breweries contributed approximately $9.4 million. Producers of brandy, wine, and other alcoholic beverages paid significantly less. As a result, the alcohol sector continues to lead all industries in excise tax contributions. Despite reduced domestic production, tobacco companies dominate excise revenues from imports. In the same period, excise taxes on tobacco products imported from Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries brought in $101 million, with an additional $4.4 million from imports originating outside the EAEU. Revenue is no longer limited to traditional cigarettes. The report notes contributions from heated tobacco products and electronic cigarettes. While their current share remains modest, steady annual growth in excise payments for these categories points to shifting consumer habits. Kyrgyz authorities consider excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco not only a fiscal mechanism, but also a tool of social policy. Gradual increases in tax rates are intended to simultaneously boost revenue and, according to government projections, reduce consumption of harmful products. The state's role in the alcohol sector warrants particular attention. In early 2023, the country’s largest alcohol producer, Ayu, along with its distilleries and vodka factories, was voluntarily transferred to state ownership. Since then, smaller industry players have voiced concern that the government may incrementally tighten its grip on the sector and effectively establish a monopoly. Overall, the data confirm that so-called “harmful” goods, alcohol and tobacco, remain the most lucrative sources of excise tax revenue for the Kyrgyz budget.

Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Reports Strong Economic Growth and Budget Surplus

Kyrgyzstan's consolidated budget for 2025 is expected to exceed $12.5 billion, marking the first time it will cross the historic threshold of one trillion soms. The announcement was made by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev during a government meeting on December 8. Kasymaliev stated that while the 2025 state budget was initially approved at the equivalent of $8 billion, it had expanded by $4.3 billion by year-end, leaving the country with a budget surplus of more than $110 million. According to the Statistics Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Kyrgyzstan was the only member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to post a budget surplus in the first nine months of 2025. The surplus totaled $1 billion, with revenues reaching $4.9 billion and expenditures at $3.9 billion. By comparison, the surplus in the same period of 2024 was $0.5 billion. Citing International Monetary Fund data, Kasymaliev noted that Kyrgyzstan ranked among the top three countries globally in terms of real GDP growth in 2024. The national economy grew by 10% in the first ten months of 2025, with all major sectors showing expansion. The construction sector led with a remarkable 42.8% growth rate. GDP per capita for 2025, initially projected at $2,616, is now expected to reach $2,770 by the end of the year. Kyrgyzstan’s international reserves also saw a significant increase. As of the end of October 2025, reserves stood at $7.955 billion, up by $3.02 billion compared to October 2024, according to the National Bank. The National Statistics Committee earlier reported that Kyrgyzstan’s GDP grew by 11.5% in 2024. Services accounted for the largest share of GDP at 52.3%, followed by goods-producing industries at 33.3%, industry at 17%, construction at 7.7%, and agriculture at 8.6%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts record-high economic growth for Kyrgyzstan in 2025, driven by robust investment activity. From January to October, fixed capital investment rose by 18.9%, with state budget funds and company resources accounting for 31% and 23% of that total, respectively.

Economy

Tajikistan to Repay Over $500 Million to Foreign Creditors in 2026

Tajikistan plans to allocate $548 million to repay its principal external debt in 2026, according to the country’s draft state budget. This would be one of the largest annual external debt payments in recent years for the republic. Most of the repayment will be covered directly from the national budget. A portion will also come from state-owned companies and enterprises that previously received sub-loans backed by government guarantees. These entities are now participating in the repayment process. In addition to external debt, Tajikistan’s domestic obligations in 2026 are projected at more than $51 million. Of that amount, $16 million will be serviced from the budget, while the remaining $34.5 million will be financed through the Ministry of Finance’s deposits at the National Bank of Tajikistan, as well as revenue from the sale and lease of assets belonging to the now-liquidated Agroinvestbank and Tajiksodirotbank, both of which have been transferred to state ownership. Despite these substantial repayments, Dushanbe plans to continue attracting foreign financing for development purposes. More than $678 million is earmarked for state investment projects in 2026, with funding to be directed toward the energy, infrastructure, and social sectors. According to the Ministry of Finance, as of October 1, Tajikistan’s total external debt stood at $3.037 billion, down $151 million, or 4.7%, from the beginning of the year. The figures indicate a gradual reduction in the country’s debt burden. The vast majority of the debt, 95.5%, or nearly $2.9 billion, is classified as direct government debt. Debt secured by state guarantees amounts to slightly over $138 million. China remains Tajikistan’s largest creditor, with over $700 million in outstanding loans. Other major lenders include the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Social Spending

Kazakhstan Government to Cut Social Spending

The Kazakh government plans to reduce budgetary spending on social support. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov told parliament that only citizens who are objectively unable to work will continue receiving state assistance. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, approximately $16.9 billion was allocated to the social sector in 2024, representing 37.3% of total budget expenditures. Of that amount, $10.2 billion went toward social security and direct assistance to the population. In 2025, social spending is projected to rise to $18.4 billion, or 37.2% of the overall budget, with social payments continuing to represent a significant portion. “The social sector places a very heavy burden on the budget: benefits, payments, and various support measures account for about 60% of the total budget. For many years, these expenditures exceeded 40% of the republican budget. When forming the budget for the next three years, we reduced them to 38%,” Bektenov said during his remarks in parliament. He added that the government will continue its optimization efforts. Only citizens who are unable to work for objective reasons will qualify for state support, while those capable of working are expected to support themselves. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, as of October 1, 2025, targeted social assistance (TSA) was being provided to 274,400 individuals from 51,000 families. The total amount disbursed thus far in 2025 was $47 million, out of a planned $190 million for the full year. TSA is distributed quarterly to low-income families, with employable recipients required to participate in state employment programs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin stated that the government would revisit the issue of increasing the minimum wage no earlier than 2027.

Healthcare

Kazakhstan to Fund Health Insurance for Over A Million Unemployed Citizens

Beginning in 2026, more than one million unemployed and vulnerable citizens in Kazakhstan will be covered by the country’s compulsory medical insurance system (CMIS). Health Minister Akmaral Alnazarova announced that local and regional budgets will assume responsibility for insurance contributions on their behalf. Expanding Access to Medical Coverage Kazakhstan’s current health insurance model requires employed citizens to contribute 2% of their monthly salary, capped at 17,000 KZT (approximately $33), to the Fund for Social Medical Insurance (FSMI). Employers pay an additional 3% of each employee’s salary, while individual entrepreneurs contribute 5% of their income. However, unemployed citizens, even if officially registered, are presently excluded from the system. In response to a directive issued by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in February 2024, the Ministry of Health has drafted legislation that would enable local governments to make insurance payments for unemployed and vulnerable groups. The bill was submitted to the Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, for consideration. “This is a step towards improving people’s health and quality of life,” Alnazarova said. “Local budgets will cover the contributions, and these individuals will receive insured status on a monthly basis, regardless of income.” The change is expected to extend coverage to over one million additional citizens, granting them access to scheduled medical care. Systemic Reforms and Contribution Cap Adjustment The ministry also proposes raising the upper limit for contribution calculations from 10 to 50 times the minimum monthly wage. As of 2025, one minimum wage is 85,000 KZT (approximately $165), making the new cap 4.25 million KZT (around $8,100). The adjustment would impact approximately 9% of employees, roughly 508,000 individuals, and their employers. “In global practice, income limits are not applied. In our country, high-income earners currently pay proportionally less than others,” Alnazarova explained, justifying the reform as a measure toward fairness and sustainability. Parliamentary Scrutiny of the Insurance Fund The draft legislation has revived long-standing criticism of the FSMI's governance. During recent Mazhilis debates, MP Murat Abenov accused the fund of lacking transparency and accountability. “The SMIF checks itself, allocates funds itself, concludes contracts itself, and determines violations itself. Many infractions go unnoticed by both ministries and the public. If not for the Supreme Audit Chamber, we wouldn’t even know that billions are being embezzled,” Abenov stated during a parliamentary session. This follows earlier opposition by several MPs to a proposed 10% tax hike on medicines and healthcare services during discussions surrounding the new Tax Code.

Sports

Kazakhstan Bans Use of Public Funds to Pay Foreign Athletes

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has signed a new law prohibiting the use of state budget funds and funds from the quasi-governmental sector, to finance the participation of foreign athletes in Kazakh sports clubs. Under the legislation, foreign “legionnaires” may now only be contracted using money from private sponsors. The move aims to refocus state support on domestic talent in professional sports. According to the presidential administration, athletes holding Kazakhstani passports who compete at elite levels, including in Olympic, Paralympic, Deaflympic, Asian, and national sports, will remain eligible for public funding. Funding Priorities and Implementation “The priority sports will be defined based on achievements on the international stage,” Akorda stated. These will include sports featured in the programs of major multi-sport events, along with traditional national disciplines. Budget allocations will also continue for state-run physical culture and sports organizations, grassroots sports initiatives, and the development of sports infrastructure. The final list of high-performance priority sports, along with detailed budget allocation procedures, will be finalized by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. In addition to the funding changes, the new law introduces unified standards for athlete training and outlines measures to promote traditional values and patriotic education. A new concept, “national standards of sports training”, has been formally introduced into legislation. Financial Impact and Transition Period Deputy Minister of Tourism and Sports Serik Zharasbayev previously estimated that Kazakhstan allocates around 400 billion tenge (approximately $797 million) annually to high-performance sports through national and regional budgets. Currently, football and hockey clubs can receive up to 1.2 billion KZT ($2.4 million) per year, while basketball and volleyball clubs are limited to 450 million KZT ($897,000). The new rules, however, will not affect existing contracts, as Kazakh law is not retroactive. Nevertheless, authorities have advised clubs across all sports not to sign new agreements with foreign athletes in 2025. Potential Legal Challenges Observers note that the restrictions may conflict with Kazakhstan’s obligations under the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Treaty, which guarantees the free movement of labor among member states. The move could impact the future participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes, in particular, in Kazakhstan’s domestic leagues. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, legal interpretations of the EAEU Treaty’s provisions may play a decisive role in how these new restrictions are implemented in practice.