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Arindam Banik

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Arindam Banik is an Indian economist who is the ICCR's Chair of Indian Studies (Economics) at Samarkand State University. The recipient of numerous awards Banik has worked as a consultant for various government and multilateral agencies, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Banik has authored several books and written for numerous magazines and newspapers.

Articles

Poverty Society

Empowering Central Asia: A Unified Approach to Poverty Alleviation

Many developing nations have prioritised the eradication of poverty. They employing various strategies, such as pursuing higher economic growth and more equitable income distribution. These efforts have yielded mixed results, underscoring the importance of caution and awareness of the challenges involved. East Asian countries have made significant strides in eliminating poverty. China has made significant progress, and India has seen more moderate headway. Latin American nations have faced difficulties in reducing poverty due to sluggish economic growth, and unfortunately, poverty has risen in Africa. Extreme poverty has historically not been an issue in Central Asia, because of various support schemes provided by the former Soviet government. Nevertheless, while Central Asia's poverty rates continue to decline, poverty reduction is slowing in some countries. Interestingly, Uzbekistan has made notable progress in reducing poverty since 2021. The poverty headcount rate based on the national poverty line fell from 17.0 per cent in 2021 to 14.1 per cent in 2022 and further declined to 11.0 per cent in 2023. Robust real wage growth was the main driver of the recent poverty reduction. Between 2022 and 2023, increases in wage income accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total poverty reduction. However, wage growth was much higher among skilled workers, especially in urban areas, due to skills shortages in the labour market. The latest official statistics show that the average wage increased the most in the services sectors, with a higher share of high-skilled workers in telecoms, pharmaceuticals, and IT. Consequently, income growth favored the better-off skilled population. Such wage inequality leads to income inequality, measured by the Gini index, increasing from 31.2 in 2022 to 34.5 in 2023. It is also noted that the socio-economic conditions are better in all Central Asian economies than in other developing economies. In Central Asia, poverty reduction has been influenced by several factors, such as implementing a national welfare standard, improved access to quality education, and financial assistance for elderly individuals and households led by single mothers. For example, in Uzbekistan, introducing a national welfare standard in 2021 significantly reduced poverty. The poverty rate decreased from 17 to 11 per cent by 2023, with a more noticeable decline in rural areas (8 percentage points) compared to urban areas (4 percentage points), resulting in approximately 1.6 million individuals being lifted out of poverty. The government's initiatives suggest it is making progress towards halving poverty between 2021 and 2026, indicating a hopeful future for poverty reduction in the region. Notably, the World Bank has recalculated poverty estimates in Central Asia using updated international poverty lines. For lower-middle-income countries -- which globally include Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan -- the poverty line is set at US$3.65 per day. In contrast, it is $6.85 daily for upper-middle-income countries like Kazakhstan. According to these new poverty lines, approximately five million people are considered poor using the lower-middle income country threshold, and 20 million people are considered poor using the upper-middle income country threshold. These updated poverty lines account for differences in living costs between countries....

3 months ago

History

Samarkand: The City that Forged a Country’s Nationhood

The city of Samarkand holds great significance in the history of Central Asia. The etymology of the name “Samarkand” has multiple possible origins. One train of thought is that it is derived from Sanskrit and Old Persian words, with “Samar” meaning “war” and “kand,” a “square” or “place.” Another roots it in the ancient Sogdian language with “Samar” interpreted as “stone” or “rock,” and “kand,” as “fort” or “town.” Some foreign toponymists claim the name originated in the Sanskrit word “Samaria,” signifying a gathering or meeting, whilst according to certain historical accounts, it evolved from the name of its king, Samar, and “kand,” the Turkish word for city. Yet another theory involves Shamar, a Yemen royal, who after seizing the town from the Sogdians, reconstructed and renamed it Samarkand. Today’s Samarkand, one of Central Asia’s oldest cities, is a testament to its enduring resilience and indomitable spirit against centuries of numerous conquests. According to the Encyclopaedia Britannica, the city then known as Maracanda, was the capital of Sogdiana prior to its conquest by Alexander the Great in the 4th century BC. It was subsequently ruled by various groups, including Central Asian Turks, Arabs, the Samanids of Iran, various Turkic peoples, and the Khwārezm-Shāh dynasty, before being ravaged by Genghis Khan in 1220. After a successful revolt against Mongol rulers in 1365, Samarkand rose to the fore as Central Asia’s economic and cultural capital under the reign of Timur (Tamerlane). In 1550, the city was conquered by Uzbeks and integrated into the Khanate of Bukhara. By the 18th century, the city had fallen into serious decline and remained uninhabited from the 1720s to the 1770s, but once again rose from the ashes when in 1887, it became a provincial capital of the Russian Empire and a railroad center. The city then served as the capital of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic from 1924 to 1936. Samarkand is a city of two parts; the first dating back to medieval times, and the second after the Russian conquest in the 19th century. Despite large-scale destruction by the Russians, the old city’s walls, erected in the 11th century and spanning five miles, remain true to their original plan with the streets running from six gates towards the center housing some of the most magnificent monuments of Central Asian architecture. Constructed between the 14th and 20th centuries, these include the Bībī-Khānom Mosque (1399–1404), commissioned by Timur’s favorite Chinese wife, Timur’s tomb, the Gūr-e Amīr Mausoleum, built around 1405, and the late 15th century Ak Saray tomb with its superb interior fresco. The madrasahs (Islamic schools) of Timur’s grandson, the astronomer Ulūgh Beg (1417–20), and those of Shirdar (1619–1635/36) and Tilakari (mid-17th century) flanking the central Registan Square are but the finest of Samarkand’s many historic mausoleums, madrasahs, and mosques. Famously adorned with magnificent portals, vast colored domes, and remarkable exterior decorations in majolica, mosaic, marble, and gold, the city’s awe-inspiring architecture resulted in Samarkand’s recognition as a UNESCO World Heritage site in 2001. The newer...

4 months ago

Aral Sea Climate Change Environment

The Aral Sea: Addressing Water Issues, Crisis, and Striving for a Better Life in Central Asia

By Arindam Banik and Muhtor Nasirov The world is currently grappling with the devastating impact of climate change, as rising temperatures have become an undeniable reality. In January 2024, the global temperature exceeded normal levels for the second consecutive month, pushing the global average temperature over the 1.5-degree threshold for the first time. Many human activities, such as unplanned water use, excessive groundwater extraction, and climate change, are thought to be contributing to this situation. One poignant example is the case of the Aral Sea in Central Asia. This once breathtaking and teeming endorheic lake, nestled between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, was not just a body of water. It was a symbol of life, a testament to the beauty and resilience of nature. Its azure waters and diverse marine life were a source of sustenance and livelihood for the region's people. It was a vibrant ecosystem, nourished by the almost entire flow of the two main rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, in the upstream region of Central Asia. Interestingly, the Amu Darya River used to flow into the Caspian Sea through Uzboy Channel. However, a significant shift occurred during human settlement when the flow of these rivers was redirected into the Aral Sea, marking a crucial turning point in the region's hydrological history. Despite its former glory as the third-largest lake in the world, covering an area of 68,000 km2 (26,300 sq miles), the Aral Sea began shrinking in the 1960s after the rivers that fed it were diverted to support large-scale irrigation for cotton production intended for export. The irrigated area in the Aral Sea Basin has now expanded to eight million hectares. By 2007, it had decreased to only 10 percent of its original size, dividing into four lakes. By 2009, the southeastern lake had vanished, and the southwestern lake had shrunk to a thin strip at the western edge of the former southern sea. In the following years, occasional water flows partially replenished the southeastern lake. In August 2014, NASA satellite images revealed that the eastern basin of the Aral Sea had completely dried up, leading to the formation of the Aralkum Desert. This dramatic change has severely impacted the ecology, risking the survival of numerous fish subspecies and three endemic sturgeon species. The loss of these species disrupts the natural balance and affects the livelihoods of the local communities that depend on fishing. The herring, sand smelt, and gobies were the first planktivorous fish in the lake, and their decline led to the lake's zooplankton population collapse. Consequently, the herring and sand-smelt populations have not recovered. Except for the carp, snakehead, and possibly the pipefish, all introduced species survived the lake’s shrinkage and increased salinity. In an attempt to revive fisheries, the European flounder was introduced. This situation is urgent as the delicate balance of this ecosystem is on the verge of collapse. The region's once-prosperous fishing industry has been devastated, leading to unemployment and economic hardship. Additionally, the diverted Syr Darya River...

6 months ago

India

How India is Becoming a Robust Soft Power in Central Asia

The middle-income trap, a pressing issue that has led to the stagnation of many successful developing economies, demands immediate attention. This trap, which occurs when a middle-income country can no longer compete internationally in standardized, labor-intensive goods due to relatively high wages, is a result of various factors, including countries most successful demographic characteristics. For instance, access to education has reduced birth rates due to an almost 100% literacy rate defined by 12 years of education. In the process, importing cheap manufacturing products has made local products uncompetitive. In such a situation, the country should have planned to upgrade current skill-based education to high-tech skills such as ICT, pharmaceuticals, etc. This shift to high-tech education holds immense potential for developing countries, offering a pathway out of the middle-income trap. Unfortunately, poor investment in developing high-tech education has led to an inadequate supply of a high-skilled workforce. Developed economies, such as the U.S. and a few European countries, are in an advantageous position to overcome such a trap due to their highly effective immigration policy. Developing countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the Philippines, and almost all Central Asian Republics, meanwhile, suffer. This will be further aggravated if the issue is not addressed urgently. Due to its geographic location and natural resource endowments, Central Asia, a diverse region with a mix of upper-middle and low-income countries, holds significant importance in the global economic landscape. Let's look at a specific case, such as Uzbekistan, a country whose population is growing at 1.3% per annum. Regarding age structure, the 0-14 age group makes up 30.1% of the population, the 15-64 age group 64.6%, and the 65-plus group constitutes just 5.3%. The country has achieved a high literacy rate, with 100% of the population completing 12 years of primary and higher secondary education. However, the country’s GDP per capita is relatively low, at US$ 3,209 (nominal term) and US$ 11,316 (PPP). The country's economy is dominated by the services sector, which contributes 48.4% to the GDP, followed by industry at 33.7%, and agriculture at 17.9%. The poverty line is set at less than US$ 3.2 per day, affecting 10% of the population. The country's labor force is distributed across sectors, with 25.9% in agriculture, 13.2% in industry, and 60.9% in services. The unemployment rate is 5.3%, and underemployment is a significant issue, affecting 20% of the population. The low supply of highly skilled workers challenges further increasing per capita income. The country will likely fall into this middle-income trap because it reaches a certain average income and cannot progress beyond that level. It seems helpful to mention some insights from this perspective. During Soviet times, the growth model of states was determined by their available resources, and Central Asia is rich in abundant resources. However, in most cases, primary resources were taken to other non-resource wealthy states for further value addition. So, the workforce was created in the respective states based on the concerned state's requirements. Workforce migration from one state to another was...

8 months ago