agricultural risks - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 7

Agriculture

New FAO Report Ranks Tajikistan Among World’s Most At-Risk Countries for Land Degradation

Tajikistan is among the countries most vulnerable to land degradation, according to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The findings point to alarming environmental and socio-economic risks for a country where agriculture remains the primary source of employment. The FAO attributes Tajikistan's vulnerability to a combination of small landholdings and intense pressure on soil resources. The country has more than 1 million rural households, including approximately 181,000 dekhkan farms. The average landholding is just 0.2 hectares, with a median size of 0.1 hectares, meaning half of all farmers operate on micro-plots. Challenges to Sustainable Agricultural Growth Under these conditions, expanding agricultural production is not feasible through increased acreage. Instead, growth depends on improving soil quality, upgrading irrigation systems, ensuring stable water access, and adopting modern technologies. These factors now define the boundaries of Tajikistan's agricultural development. According to the FAO, land degradation has affected 3.2 billion people globally, nearly 40% of the world's population. In some regions, agricultural yields have already declined by at least 10%. In Tajikistan, the stakes are especially high. The country has limited arable land, and its farming sector relies heavily on glacial meltwater and consistent irrigation. Climate risks are intensifying faster here than in many neighboring states. Extent and Impact of Land Degradation International experts estimate that nearly 70% of Tajikistan’s arable land is already degraded, with 10% of the population living in affected areas. The main drivers are erosion, salinization, and nutrient depletion, which collectively undermine soil productivity. These environmental pressures reduce rural incomes, increase reliance on external resources such as fertilizers, and contribute to forced migration, exacerbating social and economic vulnerabilities across the country.

Climate Change

Melting Glaciers Threaten Tajik Agriculture

Climate change in Tajikistan is no longer a future concern, it is an immediate crisis. Farmers across the country are grappling with the effects of melting glaciers, prolonged heatwaves, and dust storms that are disrupting traditional agricultural cycles. In Vahdat district, the Usto Murod farm has adopted a dual-harvest strategy to mitigate risk. “If one crop fails, the second helps cover the costs,” says farmer Galatmo Alieva. But increasingly rapid glacier melt has doubled irrigation needs from three rounds per season to six. Heatwaves and dust storms have further damaged crops, while honey yields have plummeted from 25 kilograms per hive to just five. To cope, Alieva’s family installed a biogas plant with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), saving between $550 and $1,100 annually. However, broader adaptation measures remain financially out of reach. Loan interest rates hover around 31%, and water-efficient drip irrigation is used only in greenhouses. Unequal Access, Dwindling Resources Other farmers face even harsher realities. Rain-fed plots deliver meager returns, pastures are drying up, and water distribution remains inequitable. “Those at the canal head take all the water,” laments farmer Bakhtiyor. Engineer Alexander Pirov warns that accelerating glacier melt threatens not only agriculture but also the country’s hydropower sector. By 2080, Tajikistan is expected to experience 12 additional days per year with temperatures exceeding 40°C, compared to the 1986-2005 average. Already, 70% of Tajikistan’s arable land is considered degraded. High Costs, Limited Support Water-saving technologies could significantly improve crop yields and farmer incomes, yet the upfront costs, estimated at $5,000 or more, remain prohibitive for most rural families. As climate risks intensify, Tajikistan’s rural population is increasingly vulnerable. Without targeted investments in adaptation, infrastructure, and equitable resource distribution, the country’s agricultural backbone may begin to fracture under the weight of a rapidly changing environment.

Drought

New Drought Monitoring System Could Save Tajikistan Millions

Tajikistan stands to save between $4 million and $6 million annually by adopting a satellite-based drought monitoring system designed to reduce crop losses and improve water management. Regional Project Launch On August 20, a major regional initiative to monitor droughts in Central Asia was launched in Tashkent. The project, spearheaded by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), will employ Earth Remote Sensing (ERS) technologies. The budget for the first phase is $300,000. The system will initially be piloted in Uzbekistan for two years, with implementation in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan expected by 2027. According to project analysts, Tajikistan’s annual savings will come from reduced agricultural losses, more efficient water use, and timely responses to drought conditions. Agriculture at High Risk Climate change poses a significant threat to Tajikistan. Over the past three decades, average temperatures in Central Asia have risen by 1.2°C, well above the global average of 0.85°C. Meanwhile, precipitation has decreased by 15-20%, increasing the frequency and severity of droughts. Agriculture accounts for 22% of Tajikistan’s GDP, and approximately 1.5 million people -- 15% of the population -- live in drought-prone areas. The country’s mountainous landscape and limited water resources further magnify the impact of even minor climate shifts. Current meteorological stations lack the capacity to monitor local variations. Weather conditions in mountainous areas can differ dramatically over short distances, rendering traditional methods insufficient. The new system will rely on satellite data from Europe’s Sentinel-2 and the U.S.’s Landsat-8. These satellites measure the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture, and surface temperature. Forecasts are updated every 5-10 days and have an accuracy rate of 80-85%. This will enable farmers to better plan irrigation schedules, select suitable crops, and conserve water resources. Implementation Timeline The initiative builds on a 2024 pilot project that developed monitoring methodologies and collected baseline data. In 2025, trials began in Uzbekistan (in Karakalpakstan and the Fergana Valley). Nationwide implementation in Uzbekistan is scheduled for 2026, followed by rollout in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2027. As part of the program, 150 specialists will be trained, and satellite data will be integrated into national meteorological systems. Tajikistan is expected to cut annual crop losses by 10-15%, boosting food security and delivering $4-6 million in economic benefits. The project also aims to mitigate social pressures in rural areas. In Uzbekistan, similar climate stresses displaced an estimated 120,000 people between 2018 and 2023 due to water shortages. By reducing drought-induced income loss, the system could help slow climate-related migration in Tajikistan as well. The initiative draws on successful international models. Australia’s Drought Watch program has cut agricultural losses by 12%, while India’s INSAT-3D satellite has improved forecast accuracy to 78%. Both approaches will be adapted for Central Asian conditions. Challenges Ahead Despite the promise, Tajikistan faces several hurdles. Internet access reaches only 55% of rural communities, there is a shortage of trained remote sensing specialists, and the system’s annual maintenance is estimated at $50,000. To address these challenges, ESCAP will provide...

agricultural risks

Wildlife Boom Pits Nature Against Farmers in Kazakhstan

Last year, Kazakhstan experienced the worst flooding the area had seen in some 80 years. Reservoirs and creeks that had been dry for decades were suddenly filled. This year, winter was mild, and spring arrived early, creating ideal conditions for an explosion of fauna. The Saiga The unique-looking saiga antelope has roamed the vast steppe of the area that is now Kazakhstan for millennia. About 25 years ago, there were concerns the animal, which usually numbered in the millions, was headed toward extinction. Widespread poaching started after independence in late 1991, and by 2005 there were less than 40,000 saiga left in the country. A ban on hunting saiga helped boost the population to some 250,000 by the mid-2010s, but then bacteria spread through the herds, greatly reducing their numbers again. Renewed efforts to increase the saiga population proved successful, however, perhaps too successful. By 2021 their number had risen to some 842,000, and by the summer of 2022, there were more than 1.3 million saiga antelope in Kazakhstan. Officials were warning back in 2022 that the saiga were competing with farmers’ herds for pastureland. Kazakhstan’s then-Ecology Minister Serikkali Brekeshev noted at the time that the growth rate was worrying as the saiga population was only some 110,000 in 2016. Brekeshev suggested a cull of 80,000 of the antelope was necessary. However, Kazakhstan was receiving a lot of international praise for bringing the saiga off the endangered list. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reprimanded Brekeshev and ordered the ecology minister to find another way to deal with the problem. Limited culling of saiga was allowed starting in October 2023 but was again banned in February 2024. The saiga population was back in the news at the end of May this year. Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, discussed the issue on May 27. Deputy Ecology Minister Nurken Sharbiyev told a Mazhilis’ committee on agriculture that the saiga population continued to proliferate, numbering some 2.8 million in 2024 and now totaling nearly 4 million. Herd owners in West Kazakhstan Province say the saiga are taking over pastureland in at least seven districts. There are also concerns that the saiga are mixing with cows and sheep in the fields and infected saiga might be spreading diseases among the herders’ animals. Farmers in Akmola Province have formed groups to try to chase the saiga from agricultural fields but with mixed success. Locals complain that the large herds block roads and linger even when drivers honk their horns. Smaller creatures than the Saiga are also thriving due to the favorable weather conditions. The Usual Suspects The combination of abundant water and warm weather has proven efficacious to the spread of some insects. Locusts are a perennial threat to crops across Central Asia. This year, in some parts of Kazakhstan, they are spreading so quickly that the authorities are having difficulties combating them. Farmers in Aktobe Province say equipment for battling locusts has been breaking down and the pesticides being used are not producing the desired...

Climate Change

Central Asia Endures Record-Breaking March Heatwave Attributed to Climate Change

Central Asia experienced an unprecedented heatwave in March 2025, with temperatures soaring to levels typically seen in late spring or summer. According to a new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), cities across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan recorded daytime highs near or above 30°C, far above the seasonal norm. In Kyrgyzstan's Jalalabad, the temperature peaked at 30.8°C, while Uzbekistan's Namangan and Fergana registered 29.4°C and 29.1°C, respectively. Kazakhstan’s Shahdara witnessed a nighttime low of 18.3°C, the hottest March night ever recorded in the country. Researchers from the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States, and the United Kingdom examined the five hottest days and nights in March across the region. Their findings indicate that human-induced climate change made the heatwave approximately 4°C hotter and nearly three times more likely. They also noted that climate models tend to underestimate early-season heat, particularly in March. Economic and Agricultural Risks The timing of the heatwave posed serious challenges for agriculture. In Kazakhstan, the spike in temperatures coincided with the start of spring wheat planting, while in neighboring countries, fruit trees were already in bloom, raising concerns about yield losses. Agriculture remains a critical sector in the region, employing up to 50% of the workforce in some countries and contributing between 5% and 24% to GDP. The region also depends heavily on glacier-fed irrigation systems. Unseasonably warm weather can accelerate snowmelt, depleting water reserves needed during peak agricultural demand later in the season. In response to declining glacier volumes, seven artificial glaciers were built in southern Kyrgyzstan's Batken region in late autumn 2024 to support future water needs. A Warming Future The WWA study warns that without significant emissions reductions, such heatwaves will become increasingly frequent and intense. If global warming reaches 2.6°C, events like March 2025 could become far more common. Governments in Central Asia are beginning to take action. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, for example, have integrated heat-related risks into their national climate adaptation plans. Still, experts urge a broader, more coordinated regional response, calling for the use of heat-tolerant crops, enhanced early warning systems, and climate-conscious urban planning.