Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kyrgyzstan Endorses National Program to Strengthen Climate Cooperation with Green Climate Fund

Kyrgyzstan has taken a step toward climate resilience by approving its Country Program for Cooperation with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) through 2027. The program defines national priorities for climate action and outlines a portfolio of projects seeking international funding. The GCF, the principal financial mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), supports developing nations in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyzstan’s newly approved framework highlights several priority initiatives: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the housing sector Enhancing ecosystem resilience and introducing climate-smart water treatment systems in the Issyk-Kul region Promoting climate-resilient agriculture and water resource management in the Batken region Improving disaster preparedness and access to climate data Expanding climate finance mechanisms for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and households According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision, Kyrgyzstan mobilized significant international climate finance between 2010 and 2023. Major contributors included the World Bank ($303.7 million), the Asian Development Bank ($194.4 million), German institutions and climate funds ($73.1 million), and the United Nations Development Programme ($63.1 million). These funds were disbursed as a mix of grants and concessional loans. Data from the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI) indicate that energy projects received the largest share of this climate financing ($306.6 million), followed by agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ($140.5 million), and water-related projects ($122.8 million). Between 2011 and 2021, Kyrgyzstan received approximately $620 million in international technical assistance for climate-related initiatives, with grants comprising about 81% of total funding. The new Country Program reflects Kyrgyzstan’s broader commitment to sustainable development and climate adaptation, particularly in vulnerable regions such as Batken and Issyk-Kul. National priorities continue to focus on energy efficiency, risk reduction, and scaling green finance solutions for local communities and businesses.

Agriculture Climate Change

How Climate Change Is Damaging Agriculture and Food Security in Tajikistan

Over the past 30 years, cotton production in Tajikistan has dropped by a staggering 56%. Among the many contributing factors are a lack of investment, outdated agricultural technology, and, notably, climate change. While humanity is not yet capable of stopping climate change, there are ways to adapt, prevent or mitigate the consequences of natural disasters, glacier melt, droughts, and to preserve biodiversity. Agricultural GDP is growing — but slowly The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet it remains the cornerstone of food security in Tajikistan. Moreover, a significant portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. According to official statistics, Tajikistan’s population exceeds 10 million, with more than 7 million living in rural areas. Of the total population, 60% are engaged in agricultural activities, while the official unemployment rate stands at 7.9%. Data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan shows that agriculture contributes approximately 25% of the country’s GDP and accounts for a similar share of exports. The sector also generates 35% of national tax revenues. Beyond food production, agriculture supplies raw materials to various industries, meaning that the livelihoods of countless small and medium-sized enterprises depend directly on its productivity. Despite modest growth in gross agricultural output, the pace remains slow. At the same time, food prices continue to rise on domestic markets, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford a balanced diet. Local farmers and entrepreneurs often attribute price hikes to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, especially given the sector’s reliance on imported fertilizers, machinery, and packaging Food Security at Risk When measured in U.S. dollars, agricultural income has remained relatively stagnant—indicating a lack of real progress and underscoring the need for urgent reforms. Compounding the issue is Tajikistan’s annual population growth rate of 2.7%, which places additional strain on the food system. Without strategic investments in irrigation, land expansion, and climate-resilient technologies, the country risks facing a systemic food shortage in the coming decades. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 60% of Tajikistan’s population suffers from food insecurity—meaning they lack sufficient access to the calories and nutrients needed for a healthy and active life. An Idea in Need of Investment Matlub Rakhmonov, an agricultural specialist, analyzed the impact of climate change on Tajikistan's agrarian sector, particularly in horticulture. “For more than ten years now, in several regions of Tajikistan, some small and medium-sized business owners involved in horticulture have not only failed to secure a full harvest, but have also incurred losses,” says Rakhmonov. “The reason for this is increasingly due to unusually warm days at the end of winter, which cause fruit-bearing trees to bloom prematurely. Then, in late April and early May, sharp cold snaps hit, the blossoms fall, and the resulting crops are destroyed.” Moreover, climate change has led to frequent natural anomalies, causing some traditional tree species to stop responding to seasonal changes. In the past, Tajikistan made widespread efforts to implement intensive orchard...

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Kazakhstan Considers Carbon Accounting System to Boost Emissions Transparency

Aydar Kazybayev, co-founder of the National Academy of Corporate Governance, has proposed the introduction of a carbon accounting system in Kazakhstan. He argues that such a system would enable the automatic calculation of greenhouse gas emissions at industrial enterprises and ensure more transparent and objective reporting. “Today in Kazakhstan, greenhouse gas emission reports remain virtually unchanged, and in some cases have worsened. This is due to different companies conducting annual verifications without a unified verification history,” Kazybayev said at the Central Asia Thermal Power Forum. He announced that a digital platform is scheduled for launch by the end of the year, aimed at integrating all combined heat and power (CHP) plants into a single emissions database. The system would allow companies to maintain carbon records independently via an aggregator or delegate the task to operators managing centralized “carbon accounts.” “Our main objective is to reduce the administrative burden on companies required to submit such reports,” Kazybayev emphasized. According to Kazakhstan’s most recent official submissions to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), total greenhouse gas emissions stood at 375.4 million tons in 2020, declined to 328.4 million tons in 2021, and rose again to 353 million tons in 2022. The energy sector remains the largest contributor, accounting for 288.5 million tons in 2020, 251.4 million in 2021, and 281.9 million in 2022. Kazybayev also cited technological innovations in China as potential models. Specifically, he highlighted China’s Smart Green Energy platform, which enables real-time monitoring of coal consumption and emissions, and generates both daily and annual reports. This system, currently in use at all coal-fired power plants in China, costs approximately $30,000. “Such tools would be highly beneficial for Kazakhstan. They help accurately estimate resource usage and identify inefficiencies,” Kazybayev explained. He also pointed to China’s modernization of coal-fired thermal power plants, where heat pumps and geothermal technologies are being adopted. These systems extract thermal energy from the air, ground, or water and integrate it into heating networks. Air pollution remains a critical concern across Central Asia. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the World Bank has attributed over 65,000 premature deaths annually to regional air pollution.

Energy Climate Change Hydropower World Bank WHO Electricity

Tajikistan’s Energy Paradox

Tajikistan stands out among developing countries for having achieved near-universal access to electricity by 2022. This milestone, documented in the international SDG7-2025 report by the UN, World Bank, WHO, IEA, and IRENA, places the country alongside Eastern European and South Caucasus states in electrification. However, beneath this achievement lie persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in rural and mountainous regions, where winter brings regular power outages due to seasonal dips in hydropower generation and surging demand. Firewood and Coal Still Dominant Despite near-total electrification, Tajikistan remains significantly behind in access to clean cooking fuels. Fewer than 40% of the population use modern, safe technologies. In villages, the majority of households still rely on coal, firewood, or even manure for heating and cooking, practices that pose serious environmental and health risks, especially for women and children. Tajikistan’s power sector is heavily dependent on hydropower, which accounts for over 90% of electricity production. While this results in low CO₂ emissions, it also creates structural vulnerabilities. Climate change and glacial retreat threaten the reliability of this single energy source. Meanwhile, the potential of solar and wind energy remains largely untapped due to a lack of investment, insufficient institutional frameworks, and limited support for decentralized energy projects. Lagging in Energy Efficiency Tajikistan is one of the most energy-intensive countries in the region. Aging heating systems, poorly insulated buildings, and inefficient technologies in agriculture and industry all contribute to this inefficiency. The SDG7 report emphasizes the need to upgrade buildings and adopt energy-saving technologies. Some progress has been made: with assistance from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), thermal upgrades are underway in schools and hospitals. In 2021, Tajikistan received approximately $100 million in international support for energy projects, most of it allocated to hydropower. Major donors include the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and various UN agencies. However, investment in solar and wind energy, as well as broader energy efficiency initiatives, remains negligible. Experts are urging international partners to revise their priorities and fund projects that directly improve living standards, particularly in remote and rural areas. A Regional Disparity in Investment The pace of energy transition varies across Central Asia. While electrification is largely complete, access to clean cooking fuels remains uneven. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are notably behind in this area. In contrast, Uzbekistan has emerged as a regional leader, securing the bulk of international energy investment. Uzbekistan, on the contrary, entered the top five world leaders in attracting investments in green energy. Globally, progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) is slowing. As of 2022, 91% of the world’s population had access to electricity, but over two billion people still rely on harmful fuels for cooking. Energy efficiency improvements are lagging, advancing at just one-quarter of the pace needed to meet 2030 targets. Charting a Path Forward Experts recommend three immediate priorities for Tajikistan. First, scaling up decentralized solar and wind energy projects. Second, investing in the energy efficiency of buildings and infrastructure. Third, expanding access to clean cooking fuels through...

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More Than a Quarter of Tajikistan’s Population Lives Below the Poverty Line – World Bank Report

Tajikistan continues to make gradual progress in reducing poverty, but over 25% of the population still lives on less than $3.65 a day, according to the World Bank’s newly released Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024. Revised Poverty Line and Structural Vulnerabilities The World Bank recently raised the extreme poverty threshold from $2.15 to $3.00 per day, adjusting for updated purchasing power parity. Under the international poverty line of $3.65 per day, approximately one in four Tajik citizens remains in poverty. Globally, around 700 million people, 8.5% of the world’s population, live on less than $2.15 per day. The report highlights that economies reliant on remittances and imports are particularly vulnerable. Tajikistan fits this profile, with a large portion of its population employed in the informal sector, especially agriculture, and limited coverage by social assistance programs. National statistics show a decline in the domestic poverty rate from 26.3% in 2022 to 23.5% in 2023, with forecasts indicating a possible drop to 21.3% this year. Nonetheless, the country's poverty rate remains high by international standards. Rural Poverty and Social Disparities Poverty in Tajikistan disproportionately affects rural areas, where 80% of the poor reside. Around 70% of adults living in poverty lack vocational education. Vulnerable groups include women, large families, single-parent households, and children, many of whom require sustained, targeted social support. In comparison with its neighbors, Kyrgyzstan has the region’s highest poverty rate by national standards at 29.8%, while Uzbekistan reports 11.2% and Kazakhstan 3.7%. Less than 5% of Kazakhstan’s population lives below the international poverty line. Turkmenistan continues to withhold poverty-related data. Climate Change Adds to Economic Pressures The report warns that climate change further exacerbates poverty risks. From 2000 to 2020, temperatures in Central Asia rose by an average of 1.23°C, and regional glaciers shrank by 30%. For Tajikistan, where glaciers are the primary source of freshwater, these developments pose a growing threat to agricultural sustainability and food security. Nonetheless, the report acknowledges progress in adaptation efforts. Tajikistan is implementing precision farming technologies and modernizing water management practices, which have improved crop yields while reducing water usage in arid regions. The World Bank emphasizes that without structural reforms, including quality job creation, expanded support systems, and sustainable income protection, millions in Tajikistan will remain at risk, despite the appearance of macroeconomic stability.

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Tajikistan and Central Asia Face Escalating Water Crisis

Central Asia is emerging as one of the regions most vulnerable to drought, according to the latest Global Drought Outlook published by the United Nations. A Region Under Climate Pressure The report highlights a persistent rise in average annual temperatures, diminishing snow cover, and accelerated glacier retreat, particularly in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as key drivers of water insecurity. “Climate change is accelerating glacier retreat... This poses a long-term threat to the region's water security,” the report states. Tajikistan, which holds over 60% of Central Asia’s glaciers, plays a critical role in the region’s hydrology. Agriculture on the Brink The first sector to suffer from prolonged drought is agriculture, which underpins food security across Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Most agriculture in these countries relies on outdated irrigation systems ill-equipped to handle evolving climate conditions. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global incidence of droughts rose by 29% between 2000 and 2023. In Central Asia, this trend has resulted in declining crop yields, income losses, and forced livestock sales. In Tajikistan’s Khatlon and Sogd regions, farmers experience income drops of 15-30% during dry years. Despite generating more than 60% of the region's freshwater through glaciers and high-altitude rivers, Tajikistan struggles with its own water shortages. Nearly 60% of water is lost due to leakage in dilapidated canals, compounded by inefficient water management. Rural communities are particularly affected, with thousands of families lacking regular access to clean water. Hydropower and Economic Risks Tajikistan relies on hydropower for over 90% of its electricity. However, inconsistent snowfall and prolonged summer droughts have drastically lowered reservoir levels, threatening national energy stability. More than half of the country’s 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals require modernization. From 2000 to 2016, drought-related economic losses in Central Asia exceeded $2 billion. In 2023 alone, Tajikistan incurred $5.4 million in damages due to power shortages. Droughts are also impacting public health, employment, and migration. Natural disasters annually affect around 1.4 million people in Uzbekistan and 500,000 in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. By 2050, drought-related losses are expected to reach 1.3% of regional GDP annually, with up to five million climate migrants projected. Regional and Global Responses Tajikistan, a signatory to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, is pursuing land restoration and sustainable water management projects. Under the ISCAUZR-2 initiative (Central Asian Initiative on Sustainable Land Management), the country secured nearly $1.5 million to support sustainable agricultural practices. Efforts include the development of fruit tree nurseries, installation of drip irrigation systems, construction of freshwater reservoirs, and deployment of monitoring sensors at water sources. Agroforestry techniques and drought-resistant crop varieties are also being introduced. Despite these initiatives, the region continues to face rising temperatures, Asia has already surpassed a +1.04°C increase and Tajikistan has lost more than 1,000 glaciers. An estimated 10 million people across Central Asia lack sustainable access to safe drinking water. Natural phenomena increasingly compound one another: droughts cause dust storms, which in turn accelerate glacier melt. The UN report warns that without systemic...