Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Climate Change

Kyrgyzstan Mudflows Surge Past 2024 Total as Officials Warn of Climate Risks

Kyrgyzstan has recorded more than 240 mudflows since the beginning of 2026, already well above the 133 cases registered during the whole of 2024. The figures were reported by the country's Ministry of Emergency Situations following a series of destructive floods and mudflows in June, when heavy rain hit several parts of the country, damaging homes, farmland, and a wide range of infrastructure. According to the ministry, 66 mudflow and flooding incidents were recorded between June 19 and 21. The southern part of the country – Batken, Osh, Jalal-Abad, as well as the northern region of Talas were among the affected regions. More than 300 homes were damaged or flooded over that three-day period, while emergency crews evacuated around 50 people from dangerous areas. The ministry also reported heavy livestock losses. The deadliest recent incident occurred on June 24, when a mudflow swept away a car on the Osh-Alay highway, killing six people. The ministry had earlier reported two mudflow-related deaths this year, bringing the reported 2026 toll to at least eight. That remains lower than the 25 deaths recorded in 2024, despite the higher number of incidents this year. Emergency officials say improved response work and protective measures have helped reduce casualties, though the scale of the damage remains severe. Kyrgyzstan has faced repeated mudflow damage in recent years, including flooding in southern regions and around Issyk-Kul. Its mountainous geography makes it particularly exposed to mudflows, as well as avalanches and landslides. Officials have also pointed to climate change, saying heavier and less predictable rainfall is increasing the danger. [caption id="attachment_51096" align="alignnone" width="768"] Image: Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic[/caption] The Ministry of Emergency Situations is working with counterparts in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan under the regional RESILAND CA+ program, which is backed by the World Bank. The project is designed to reduce disaster risks in particular through building protective infrastructure and improving forecasting. In Kyrgyzstan, the program covers 21 high-risk sites in four regions. Work has already begun on strengthening vulnerable areas and restoring mudflow-protection infrastructure. The regional push comes as Central Asian governments warn that climate-related disasters are becoming harder to manage at the national level alone. “Completely preventing mudflows is impossible, but their impact on people can be significantly reduced,” Deputy Emergency Situations Minister Akylbek Mazaripov said. He also urged residents to take greater care when building homes near riverbeds and other hazardous areas. “Each person’s safety is also their own responsibility,” Mazaripov said. “Before building a house near a riverbed, people need to understand that one day a mudflow may pass through there.” Emergency crews remain deployed in affected areas, where they are clearing riverbeds, repairing protective structures, and coordinating relief work with local authorities.

Environmental Research

Kyrgyzstan-Germany Project Studies Lake Issyk-Kul Ecosystem

A comprehensive scientific study of Lake Issyk-Kul began on June 11 as part of an international project involving Razzakov Kyrgyz State Technical University (KSTU), the International Medical University, and Germany’s Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries. Lake Issyk-Kul is Kyrgyzstan’s largest lake and its leading tourist destination. It also forms part of a protected ecological area. In recent decades, the lake has faced growing climate-related pressures. According to KSTU, cooperation between the scientific institutions began in 2024 with the establishment of the Issyk-Kul Ecological Laboratory in Cholpon-Ata. The laboratory has since become a platform for joint research into the lake’s ecological condition. In 2025, the partners secured a grant from the German Research Foundation to conduct a comprehensive study of the Issyk-Kul ecosystem. German scientists have arrived in Kyrgyzstan to take part in the research. The project focuses on the hydrophysical, hydrochemical, hydrobiological, and hydro-optical properties of Issyk-Kul’s water using advanced scientific methods and technologies. Researchers are also studying biological processes within the aquatic ecosystem, including DNA and RNA analysis of biomaterials. The research is expected to help assess ongoing ecological processes, identify long-term trends, and establish a scientific basis for measures to preserve the lake’s ecosystem. According to KSTU Professor Salmor Alymkulov, the project is important for expanding international scientific cooperation, training young researchers, and developing recommendations to protect Kyrgyzstan’s natural heritage. Kyrgyzstan views the preservation of Issyk-Kul as part of the global climate and water agenda. In December 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul through 2030, along with an accompanying action plan. The initiative is aimed at protecting the lake and its surrounding biosphere from growing environmental and human pressures while supporting the region’s long-term economic resilience. Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai in February 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s then Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, Bakyt Torobaev, warned of the growing climate risks facing Issyk-Kul. According to Torobaev, the lake’s water level has fallen by nearly 14 meters since the mid-19th century, while its total volume has decreased by approximately 85 billion cubic meters. The number of rivers flowing into the lake has also declined significantly, largely due to glacier melt and increased agricultural water use. He warned that further declines in Issyk-Kul’s water level could have serious environmental and socioeconomic consequences, including threats to biodiversity, the lake’s tourism potential, and the well-being of local communities.

Lake Balkhash

Kazakhstan and France Develop Master Plan to Preserve Lake Balkhash

Kazakhstan and France are developing a long-term strategy to preserve Lake Balkhash, one of Eurasia’s largest inland water bodies, as concerns grow over the impact of climate change and shifting water resources in the region. An open meeting of the working group tasked with preparing a master plan for the conservation of the lake’s ecosystem was held in Astana. The project is being implemented through cooperation between Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the French Development Agency, and France’s Bureau of Geological and Mining Research. Lake Balkhash, located in southeastern Kazakhstan, is the world’s second-largest non-drying saline lake after the Caspian Sea and ranks among the largest lakes globally. The lake is unique in that its western section contains almost fresh water, while the eastern part is brackish. The Ili River provides up to 80% of Balkhash’s inflow, while the Karatal, Aksu, Ayagoz, and Lepsy rivers, along with groundwater resources, also contribute to the lake’s water balance. Although Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry has previously said Lake Balkhash is not at risk of catastrophic shallowing, the government has moved forward with plans to develop a comprehensive strategy for protecting the ecosystem of one of the country’s most important water resources. At the meeting, French experts presented preliminary findings from research covering key components of the project. Participants reviewed studies on agriculture, hydrology, glacier runoff contributions, hydrogeology, water use, and water-resource modeling. Particular attention was paid to the sustainable management of water resources in the Lake Balkhash basin under changing climate conditions. Experts outlined approaches to forecasting river flows, assessing future changes in glacier-fed water supplies, studying interactions between surface and groundwater resources, and applying advanced modeling tools to support water-management decisions. The meeting also examined the potential use of digital technologies to analyze different water-allocation scenarios and assist in the preparation of basin management plans. Researchers have already integrated findings from various studies into a unified assessment system covering the entire Lake Balkhash watershed. Participants identified several priority issues requiring additional analysis as work on the master plan continues. “Following the visit by the French experts, the next stages in developing the master plan will be clarified, including the preparation of forecast scenarios for the water-management situation through 2040, the selection of climate models, and additional research in specific areas,” said Kairatgali Khairulla, Chairman of the Information and Analytical Center for Water Resources under Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. “Joint work by Kazakh and French experts will continue through the end of 2026 to integrate research findings, improve modeling calculations, and prepare the final document. The master plan will provide a scientific foundation for long-term decisions on preserving the Lake Balkhash ecosystem and ensuring sustainable management of water resources throughout the basin,” he added. The final version of the master plan is expected to be completed by the end of this year. The future of Lake Balkhash has gained additional significance amid major infrastructure projects planned for the region. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has...

Glaciers

Tajikistan Renames Central Asia’s Largest Glacier

Tajikistan has officially renamed the country’s largest glacier, previously known as the Vanchiakh Glacier, as the Tajikistan Glacier, according to a government decree signed on June 3. The glacier, also widely known internationally as the Fedchenko Glacier, is the longest glacier outside the polar regions. Stretching approximately 77 kilometers and covering about 700 square kilometers, it forms part of a vast glacial system that includes around 100 smaller glaciers. The glacier is one of the largest in Eurasia, surpassed in area only by the Siachen and Baltoro glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range. Siachen extends roughly 76 kilometers and covers about 750 square kilometers, while Baltoro stretches 62 kilometers and covers a similar area. The newly renamed Tajikistan Glacier plays a critical role in the hydrology of Central Asia, serving as one of the region’s most important freshwater reserves. Last year, the glacier became the focus of a major international scientific expedition conducted under the Research on Climate and Cryosphere in the Pamirs (RECAP) project. Between July 19 and August 23, 2025, researchers from Tajikistan, Germany, and France carried out extensive fieldwork aimed at establishing a permanent monitoring system to track climate change and glaciological processes in the Pamir Mountains. Scientists faced challenging conditions during the expedition, transporting heavy equipment by hand to elevations exceeding 5,000 meters above sea level. Despite low oxygen levels, freezing temperatures, and difficult terrain, the team successfully installed an autonomous monitoring station capable of transmitting real-time data to a central database. Researchers said all planned monitoring stations were successfully deployed. Data collected from the glacier will now become part of an international climate observation network, providing scientists with new tools to assess glacier retreat and better understand the long-term implications for Central Asia’s water resources. The Tajikistan Glacier remains not only one of the region’s most significant glacial formations, but also an important indicator of the future availability of freshwater resources upon which millions of people across Central Asia depend.

UNDP

UNDP Opinion: Central Asia – Shared Wildlife, Shared Landscapes, Shared Responsibility

As global leaders gather for the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Assembly in Samarkand, Central Asia has an opportunity to send a clear message to the world: protecting biodiversity is not only about saving species — it is about securing water, livelihoods, resilience and long-term stability for millions of people across our region. From the glaciers of the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains to the deserts, steppes and river basins downstream, Central Asia’s ecosystems are deeply interconnected across borders. Rivers flow between countries. Wildlife migrates through shared landscapes. Mountain ecosystems regulate water systems that sustain agriculture, energy production and communities far beyond the highlands themselves. Among the most powerful symbols of this shared natural heritage is the snow leopard — the silent guardian of Central Asia’s mountains. The snow leopard represents far more than a rare and iconic species. Its survival reflects the health of entire ecosystems that millions of people depend upon every day. Healthy mountain landscapes help secure freshwater resources, reduce disaster risks, sustain pastures and agriculture, preserve biodiversity, and strengthen resilience to climate change across the region. But today, these ecosystems are under growing pressure. Climate change is accelerating glacier melting and intensifying water stress. Land degradation, unsustainable grazing, habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss are placing increasing pressure on fragile mountain environments and rural livelihoods. Communities living closest to nature are often the first to feel the consequences — through declining water availability, degraded pastures, reduced agricultural productivity and increasing climate-related risks. These challenges do not stop at national borders. And neither can the solutions. Only a coordinated regional response can match the scale of the challenge. Protecting Central Asia’s mountain ecosystems requires countries to work together to conserve ecological corridors, strengthen transboundary protected areas, improve water and land governance, and invest in climate-resilient livelihoods for communities whose futures are closely tied to nature. There are already successful examples of regional agreements. For example, a highly successful transboundary nature conservation agreement in Central Asia protects the Ustyurt Plateau and the Turan Temperate Deserts. Spanning across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, this initiative has successfully safeguarded vulnerable ecosystems and migratory species like the saiga antelope and snow leopard. [caption id="attachment_50004" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Photo: Saiga calf. Kazakhstan/UNDP Kazakhstan[/caption] It is encouraging that transboundary cooperation has already taken shape across the region. Across Central Asia, governments, communities and development partners are already demonstrating that conservation and development can advance together. While each country's experience is unique, the lessons are remarkably similar: when communities benefit from healthy ecosystems, nature and people both thrive. In Kazakhstan, the snow leopard has become one of the clearest examples of how coordinated conservation efforts can help restore fragile ecosystems across borders. The species inhabits mountain systems that extend beyond national boundaries into China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Uzbekistan, making its protection inseparable from regional cooperation. Over the past decade, habitat countries have strengthened efforts to protect the species through national conservation strategies, expanded protected areas, and improved ecosystem monitoring. Supported by cooperation between the Government, UNDP, the Global...

El Niño

El Niño Could Bring Unusually Heavy Summer Rains to Central Asia, WMO Warns

Central Asia could face unusually heavy rainfall during the summer of 2026 as the climate phenomenon known as El Niño is expected to return in the coming months, according to forecasts from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The WMO estimates there is an 80% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August and a near or above 90% chance that they will persist until at least November. The organization says the event could contribute to a rise in extreme weather around the world, including heatwaves, droughts, and intense rainfall. According to the WMO, temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been steadily increasing and are approaching the thresholds typically associated with El Niño. Scientists have also detected a large reservoir of unusually warm water below the ocean’s surface, with temperatures more than six degrees Celsius above normal in some areas, providing additional energy for the phenomenon to intensify. For Central Asia, El Niño is often associated with higher-than-average precipitation. While the region is better known for its arid and semi-arid climate, past El Niño events have brought increased rainfall to parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said countries should prepare for the possibility of stronger droughts and heavy rains, as well as elevated risks of heatwaves on land and in the oceans. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Saulo said. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing conditions as an urgent climate warning, saying El Niño would “pour fuel on the fire” of global warming and could accelerate the impacts of extreme weather worldwide. Seasonal forecasts released by the WMO also indicate that temperatures from June through August are likely to remain above normal across most regions of the world. Scientists note that while there is no evidence that climate change is making El Niño more frequent, a warmer atmosphere and warmer oceans can amplify its effects. The previous major El Niño episode, in 2023-2024, ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024. The WMO says improved seasonal forecasting gives governments time to prepare for potential disruptions to agriculture, water resources, and disaster response systems before severe weather develops.