Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Natural Disasters

Tajikistan Turns to Early Warning Systems as Climate Risks Grow

On the evening of May 1, a mudflow swept into residential neighborhoods in Kulob, southern Tajikistan. When water flooded a neighboring house, Mirzo Muloniezov rushed inside and managed to carry out his two-year-old grandson. The water had already reached the electrical outlets. Muloniezov was electrocuted. Neighbors pulled him from the water, but he could not be saved. In the first six months of 2026, Tajik authorities recorded 741 natural emergencies. Avalanches accounted for 508 of them, while another 123 were mudflows. Twelve people were killed, and economic damage exceeded TJS 52.8 million – about $5.7 million. Dushanbe is now discussing with the United Kingdom technologies that could give people more time before disaster strikes. On September 14, Rajabali Rahmonali, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, met British Ambassador Katherine Smitton. Along with training rescuers and holding joint exercises, the talks covered geographic information systems (GIS), risk mapping, drones, remote monitoring, and early warning systems. These are no longer technologies for some distant future. Drones and GIS are already being used to monitor glaciers and areas exposed to mudflows. In late August, scientists from the Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia surveyed the Megdor and Khirson glaciers in the Vanjob River basin. They combined aerial surveys using drones with satellite imagery, GIS data, and hydrometeorological observations. The data allow specialists to track glacier movement and areas where new hazards could emerge. During the expedition, they also surveyed the area around the village of Votkhud after a July 19 mudflow damaged water supply and irrigation infrastructure. Particular attention is being paid to the Khirson Glacier. Its sudden surges have previously blocked river channels and created glacial lakes. Such lakes can become dangerous if a natural ice or debris dam fails, sending large volumes of water crashing into the valley below. Some early warning infrastructure is already operating in the country. In June, Tajikistan’s Agency for Hydrometeorology reported the deployment of systems used for flood forecasting and early warning. Tajikistan is also rehabilitating hydrological stations and expanding its observation network. British assistance is therefore being discussed for a system that already has some of its components in place. What remains unclear is whether the cooperation will provide additional monitoring stations, drones, software, specialist training, or a combination of these – and where any new equipment or systems would operate. Kulob shows what the existing system still lacks. Heavy rains in early May triggered floods and landslides in several parts of the country. Three people died – two were trapped beneath collapsed walls, and Muloniezov was electrocuted. His son Muloniezov Yakubchon told Asia-Plus that the mudflow arrived at around 8 p.m. Water first entered a neighboring house where children were inside, and then destroyed his family’s fence. After his father’s death, the family temporarily moved in with relatives. By May 20, 520 affected families in Kulob had received government assistance, while another 330 were still waiting. Umeda Alimova, a resident of the Qurbon Zardak neighborhood, received flour,...

Central Asia Water Cooperation

Water in Central Asia: Can the Five States Reach an Agreement?

Central Asia is entering a period of growing water stress, as climate change makes supplies less predictable while demand continues to rise. Populations are growing, economies require new energy and industrial capacity, glaciers are shrinking, and agriculture continues to consume most of the available water. The region’s two main rivers – the Amu Darya and Syr Darya – cross national borders, making it impossible for any one country to solve the problem on its own. After decades of disputes, Central Asian states are increasingly trying to manage water jointly. In 2026, that cooperation has produced further practical steps, from plans for automated water accounting in the Syr Darya basin to new proposals for reforming regional mechanisms. The question now is whether the five countries can agree on rules when their water needs remain different. Water and Energy: An Old Conflict The structural conflict is rooted in the region’s geography. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are upstream states and use water in part for hydropower generation, particularly in winter. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are downstream and need large volumes in summer during the irrigation season. During the Soviet period, a centralized exchange system was in place: upstream republics stored water in winter and released it in summer, receiving energy resources in return. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that unified mechanism disappeared. Interstate agreements preserved a degree of coordination but did not eliminate the tension between upstream energy needs and downstream agricultural interests. Climate change is now adding another layer to the problem. Retreating glaciers in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains are altering the timing and reliability of river flows, while populations and consumption are increasing. Countries across the region are planning new power plants, industrial facilities, mining projects, and data centers, while agriculture remains the largest consumer of water. From Seasonal Quotas to Joint Management The main formal mechanism for coordinating river allocations remains the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992. Through it, countries coordinate water withdrawal limits and reservoir operating regimes in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. In late 2025, the countries agreed on water allocations for 2026: for the Amu Darya, the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 was around 55.4 billion cubic meters, while the Syr Darya allocation for the non-growing season was approximately 4.2 billion cubic meters. The five-state framework does not, however, cover every major user of the Amu Darya. Afghanistan is outside the regional allocation system, while its Qosh Tepa Canal, now under construction, has added another source of uncertainty over future downstream flows. Such agreements keep the shared system functioning, but many decisions are still made ahead of each new season. Climate change and rising demand require a longer-term model. In February of this year, Kazakhstan proposed developing a Central Asian Framework Convention on Water Use, while joint infrastructure projects, including Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower plant with the participation of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are gradually adding shared economic interests...

Desertification

UN Desertification Forum Highlights Central Asian Land Degradation

Mongolia is hosting a United Nations (UN) conference on combating desertification this month, with delegates from Central Asian countries discussing cooperation on the challenges of climate change, water scarcity, and sustaining vast ecosystems such as the Eurasian steppes. Bakhodur Sheralizoda, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Environmental Protection, was among speakers appealing for more regional and international cooperation in the face of land degradation, desertification, and drought. While the meeting in Ulaanbaatar is aimed at the protection of rangeland and grassland ecosystems, Sheralizoda also noted the importance of preserving mountain ecosystems such as those that cover most of Tajikistan’s territory. He said Tajikistan is one of Central Asia's major sources of water and protecting its glaciers is therefore critical, Khovar, Tajikistan’s state news agency, reported on Monday. His comments highlighted the interconnectedness of the environmental challenges being discussed at the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, which started on August 17 and ends on August 28. The conference is focusing on “the arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, known as the drylands, where some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and peoples can be found,” according to organizers. The goal of the meeting is to promote sustainable rangeland management, climate-resilient land use, and land restoration across those fragile areas. Nearly 77% of Mongolia’s land is already degraded, and limited rainfall and short growing seasons make recovery from degradation difficult, according to the UN. More than 80 million hectares in Central Asia, or an area about four times the size of Kyrgyzstan, are already degraded, the UN says. Along with Tajikistan, the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have been working on ways of mitigating threats to ecosystems, including soil protection and monitoring, drip irrigation, and the planting of seedlings. Late last year, Uzbekistan hosted a major international conference on wildlife trade, held under the UN-linked Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species, as countries and international institutions look for ways to counter global conservation pressures. In a commentary on PBS, Dr. Justine Shanti Alexander, Mongolia director for the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, said the hosting of the UN event in Ulaanbaatar “provides a unique opportunity to showcase to the world how healthy, high integrity rangelands underpin wildlife, pastoral livelihoods, and climate resilience.”

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s North Aral Recovery Anchors Broader Environmental Push

After decades in which the Aral Sea became a global symbol of ecological collapse, Kazakhstan has achieved a measurable recovery in its northern basin. Built over two decades, the turnaround is now being linked to expanded restoration plans and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader Taza Kazakhstan, or “Clean Kazakhstan,” environmental agenda. According to the government, the North Aral’s volume rose from 18.9 billion cubic meters at the end of 2022 to 23 billion by the end of 2025. In July 2026, TCA reported that the Water Resources Ministry had put the volume at approximately 23.5 billion cubic meters. The recovery reflects work centered on the Kokaral Dam, completed in 2005, and management of the Syr Darya. The first phase raised water levels, reduced salinity, and helped restore fishing. Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Ministry and the World Bank have developed plans for a second phase of the restoration program. The proposed project calls for the reconstruction of the Kokaral Dam and aims to increase the sea’s volume to approximately 34 billion cubic meters and expand its surface area to around 3,900 square kilometers. The recovery described here is confined to the North Aral in Kazakhstan. The South Aral remains severely depleted, while further progress in the north depends on Syr Darya flows and cooperation with upstream states. An August 22 government review places the North Aral alongside waste management, reforestation, and environmental education under Taza Kazakhstan. Launched by Tokayev in April 2024 as a nationwide cleanup campaign, the initiative is increasingly being used as a framework for a broader environmental program. Waste Infrastructure Illegal dumping is the clearest area of reported progress. The number of identified dumping sites fell from approximately 8,600 in 2018 to 2,600 in 2026, according to the government. Satellite monitoring is being combined with public reporting through eGov Mobile and TazaQazBot. Public reports have been processed through the two services since 2024. Local authorities have been given responsibility for cleaning public areas, while penalties for illegal disposal have been strengthened. Because the 2018 baseline predates Taza Kazakhstan, the longer-term decline also reflects measures taken before the initiative. The share of municipal waste sorted or processed increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 30.6% in 2025, according to the government. Kazakhstan still faces a serious infrastructure deficit. At the end of 2024, only 20.4% of the country’s municipal waste landfills had the required documentation, while major sites in Astana and Zhezkazgan were at or beyond capacity. A 2023 plan called for 100 new landfills, but a December 2025 government update said only eight had been commissioned. The August 2026 review provided no newer landfill total, but said upgrades were planned for existing sites and additional waste sector projects were moving into operation. Large waste-processing and utilization facilities are also under development in Astana, Almaty, and the Zhambyl region. TCA has previously reported that headline processing rates do not show how much waste becomes reusable material. Only about 1.1% of municipal waste generated in 2024 was converted into secondary raw materials. The...

Camel Farming

Camel Farming Expands Across Central Asia as Climate Pressures Mount

Camels are gaining renewed economic importance in Central Asia as farmers seek new markets for their milk and governments look for livestock better suited to increasingly dry conditions. In Kazakhstan, camel numbers are rising and producers are developing markets for shubat, a fermented camel milk drink, and powdered camel milk. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, has begun working with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to develop camel husbandry in arid areas. Kazakhstan has more than 322,000 camels, according to government figures for 2026, an increase of 2.4% from the previous year. Most are raised in the vast arid lands in the west and south of the country. Camels are also an important part of Turkmenistan’s livestock sector. The herd numbered about 345,000 animals in 2020. Bactrian camels have traditionally dominated Kazakhstan’s camel herd. They can withstand sharp fluctuations between extreme heat and severe cold. Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has also seen an increase in one-humped Arvana camels, a breed of Turkmen origin known for high milk productivity. In Turkmenistan, the Arvana is the mainstay of the industry. These camels can produce milk even when grazing on sparse desert pastures, feeding on salt-tolerant vegetation and bitter wormwood that are of little use to many other types of livestock. Milk Brings in the Money Milk offers camel farmers a product that can be sold throughout the year and increasingly processed into higher-value goods. A female Kazakh Bactrian camel can produce up to about 1,750 liters of milk annually, although yields vary considerably between breeds and farming systems. The main product on the domestic market is shubat, but larger producers have also begun processing camel milk for markets far beyond the communities where it is produced. One of the most prominent examples is Daulet-Beket LLP in the Almaty region. When a camel-milk processing plant opened there in 2021, the farm had around 5,000 camels and was producing up to five tons of shubat a day. The plant was designed to produce as much as 30 tons of powdered camel milk a month, with products being shipped to Russia and China. Smaller farms show how strong local demand can also sustain the industry. The Suleymanov family in the Almaty region started with two camels. By the time they were profiled in 2021, their herd had grown to around 70 animals. Sixteen were being milked each day, producing 52 to 53 liters. The family said customers frequently bought their shubat before it even reached Almaty. Camel Farming in Turkmenistan Turkmen state media has also highlighted privately run camel farms. A 2024 report said farmer Serdarkuli Berdyliev in Ahal province kept 320 camels, including 140 females. Average milk yields were around six liters a day. Information about private agriculture in Turkmenistan largely comes through tightly controlled state media. Camel milk production continues to feature in official coverage alongside the country’s long-established herding traditions. Camel wool remains a marketable product, although its market is much smaller than that for milk. In Turkmenistan, it...

Glacier Retreat

Kyrgyzstan’s Issyk-Kul Glaciers Have Lost One-Third of Their Area

Glacier coverage in the Issyk-Kul Basin has shrunk by 33.7% compared with records from 70–90 years ago, according to an updated inventory released by Kyrgyzhydromet, the Hydrometeorological Service under Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations. The service said coverage had declined by 23.1% over the past 7–10 years, indicating that the retreat has accelerated. The revised inventory was compiled using Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, Google Earth, QGIS, and earlier glacier catalogs. Researchers refined glacier boundaries, documented fragmentation, and identified glaciers that had disappeared. Kyrgyzhydromet attributed the decline to climate change and said the new inventory would provide a baseline for assessing the country’s long-term water resources. The retreat has implications for Lake Issyk-Kul, which is fed by rivers originating in the surrounding mountains. The 2018 Catalogue of Glaciers of Kyrgyzstan, based on Landsat 8 imagery from 2013–2016, recorded 957 glaciers covering 560.8 square kilometers in the Issyk-Kul Basin. About 118 rivers and streams flow into the lake, many supplied by snow and glacial melt. Between 1927 and 2003, the lake’s water level fell by 2.75 meters. Continued glacier loss could reduce river inflows and increase pressure on agriculture and tourism, both of which depend heavily on the basin’s water resources. In December 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul through 2030, along with an action plan. The measures include modernizing irrigation infrastructure and expanding the use of water-saving technologies, supported by concessional financing for farmers. Kyrgyzstan is also preparing a feasibility study for an integrated national cryosphere monitoring system. The proposed system would combine monitoring of glaciers and snow cover with other parts of the cryosphere. The new inventory provides a more recent basis for that work and for future water management and climate risk assessments.