Kazakhstan’s Air Quality Stagnates Despite Emission Reforms
Over the past two decades, air pollution levels in Kazakhstan have remained persistently high, despite numerous reform pledges and reported reductions in specific emissions. This is the conclusion of a recent study by analysts at Ranking.kz. Half the Country at Risk According to 2025 data from the international service Numbeo, Kazakhstan ranked 30th out of 113 countries in urban air pollution, with an index of 73.2 out of 100. This marks only a modest improvement from a 2013 peak of 79.6. Neighboring Russia and Uzbekistan fared better, with scores of 59 and 54, respectively. Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan’s meteorological service, reported that in 2023, only 23 of the 70 surveyed cities and towns were considered relatively environmentally friendly. Of these, just four were regional centers; the rest were smaller towns and villages. The remaining 47 locations displayed elevated or critically high pollution levels. Astana, Almaty, Karaganda, and Ust-Kamenogorsk were cited as the most concerning. In these cities, pollution has either stagnated or worsened since 2005. Karaganda’s Air Pollution Index (API) rose from 13.9 in 2005 to 16 in 2023. Astana’s API nearly doubled, from 3.7 to 7. Although Almaty exited the “red” zone, it remains categorized as having elevated pollution. In November 2023, Ust-Kamenogorsk authorities moved schoolchildren to remote learning due to thick smog, the first such decision on environmental grounds. Senators Olga Bulavkina and Shakarim Buktugutov proposed declaring the city an ecological disaster zone, but the government dismissed the need for a special commission. The Emissions Paradox According to the National Statistics Office, total pollutant emissions, comprising solid, liquid, and gaseous substances, declined from 3 million tons in 2005 to 2.3 million tons in 2023, a 24% decrease. However, greenhouse gas emissions increased by over 45% during the same period, rising from 233.8 million tons to 340 million tons, according to the international database OurWorldinData. This surge contradicts Kazakhstan’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, which it joined in 2016. The primary culprits remain unchanged: coal-fired thermal power plants. In 2023, stationary sources accounted for 2.2 million tons of the 2.3 million total emissions. The number of such sources has more than doubled since 2005, reaching 233,800. Between Optimism and Routine In a bid to reverse the trend, Kazakhstan has approved a national strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The plan targets a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to 324.4 million tons by 2030, with full carbon neutrality by mid-century. Measures include expanding renewable energy, constructing nuclear power plants, and integrating low-carbon technologies in industry. Despite these ambitions, emissions have yet to return even to 2005 levels. While some progress has been made, it is not enough to offset broader environmental deterioration. In the country’s largest cities, residents continue to breathe air laced with harmful pollutants, contributing to increased cancer rates and a declining quality of life. If Kazakhstan succeeds in implementing even part of its environmental roadmap, then perhaps within the next decade, smog alerts, pollution spikes, and remote learning due to air quality may become rare exceptions rather than...
