Birthrate - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 3

Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Birth Rate Continues to Fall Amid Demographic Concerns

Kazakhstan is witnessing a sustained decline in its birth rate despite government efforts to stimulate demographic growth. In their latest report, analysts at Ranking.kz have explored why more Kazakhstanis are choosing to have fewer or no children, and what factors are driving this downward trend. Sharp Decline in Newborn Numbers According to official data, 77,300 children were born in the first quarter of 2025, a 15.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This continues a multi-year decline: annual births dropped from 446,500 in 2021 to 365,900 in 2024. Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate also reflects this trend. After peaking at 23.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021, the rate has steadily fallen to 18.2 in 2024 and further to 15.4 in early 2025. Regionally, Mangistau and Turkestan remain the most fertile areas, with 21.3 births per 1,000 people, followed by Shymkent (19.7). The lowest rates are in North Kazakhstan (8.5), Kostanay (9.5), and East Kazakhstan (9.6). Changing Attitudes Toward Parenthood A 2024 national survey shows a growing reluctance among citizens to expand their families. Over half (51.3%) of respondents said they already have children and do not plan to have more. Only 13% hoped to have two children, 9.1% three, and 10.5% four or more. Meanwhile, 3.9% said they do not intend to have children at all, a sentiment more common in urban areas (4.5%) than in rural regions (3%). Among urban parents, 52.4% said they would not have more children, compared to 49.5% in rural communities. UN projections suggest Kazakhstan's demographic decline will persist. The fertility rate is expected to dip to 19 in 2025, 17.6 in 2034, and continue falling to 11.4 by 2100, raising concerns about aging and the growing demographic burden. Economic and Medical Challenges According to the platform "Children of Kazakhstan", economic hardship remains a central factor. Rising costs for housing, healthcare, and education have made child-rearing increasingly unaffordable, prompting many to delay or reconsider parenthood altogether. Societal values are also shifting. More young Kazakhs are prioritizing education, careers, and personal development. Women, in particular, are pursuing higher education and professional goals before starting families. Healthcare issues have further exacerbated the trend. The number of women diagnosed with infertility rose to 29,100 in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total for all of 2023 (28,500). This figure has climbed steadily from just 10,000 in 2019. Male infertility is also rising, though the numbers are significantly lower. Reported cases increased from 36 in 2019 to 119 in 2021, before fluctuating slightly to 108 in 2023.

Family

Declining Birth Rates in Central Asia Tied to Crisis in Reproductive Freedom

Birth rates across Europe and Central Asia are falling sharply, accompanied by aging populations and the migration of young people in search of better opportunities. In response, many governments have introduced financial incentives to encourage childbirth. However, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) warns in its State of World Population 2025 report that these measures address symptoms, not causes. The real issue, the report contends, is a crisis of reproductive freedom. The report, compiled in partnership with the polling agency YouGov, surveyed over 14,000 people across 14 countries, including Germany and Hungary. Its findings highlight a deep disconnect between people’s reproductive intentions and their lived realities: 32% reported experiencing an unplanned pregnancy, while 23% said they were unable to have children when they wanted. Among respondents over the age of 50, nearly one-third (31%) reported having fewer children than they had hoped. Economic insecurity emerged as the leading barrier to planned parenthood. Financial hardship was cited by 39% of respondents, followed by job instability (21%), lack of suitable housing (19%), and concerns over war, pandemics, or climate change (19%). Relationship-related issues were also significant: 14% said they lacked a partner, while 10%, mostly women, said their partners did not contribute enough at home. Although Central Asia continues to report fertility rates above the global average, the region is not immune to this trend. The report notes a steady decline in birth rates across much of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, which is experiencing a multi-year downturn despite having one of the region’s higher fertility rates. UNFPA emphasizes that these patterns reflect underlying socio-economic constraints, not shifting cultural values. Rather than framing the issue as one of declining birth rates, UNFPA urges a shift in perspective from “why aren’t people having more children?” to “why can’t people have the families they want?” Reproductive freedom, the report argues, means being able to decide freely and securely when, and how many children to have. This requires stable employment, access to quality healthcare and housing, and genuine gender equality. UNFPA calls on governments, particularly in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, to focus less on raising fertility rates and more on protecting individual rights. Key policy recommendations include greater investment in public health systems, affordable housing, decent work opportunities, and stronger protections against violence and discrimination. “The real crisis is that millions of people can’t build the families they want, not because they don’t want children, but because they can’t afford to have them,” the report states. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, four out of five Central Asian countries are currently experiencing declining fertility. The exception is Uzbekistan, where birth rates remain high and continue to climb. In 2023, Uzbekistan recorded a fertility rate of 3.4 children per woman, the highest in the region. It was followed by Tajikistan (3.1), Kazakhstan (3.0), and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan (each at 2.7). Uzbekistan also posted the region’s highest number of births last year, approximately 962,000, representing a 14% increase compared to 2020. By contrast, Kazakhstan registered...

Society

Uzbekistan Continues to Lead Central Asian Fertility Rates

Four out of the five Central Asian countries are experiencing fertility declines, with the exception being Uzbekistan, where the total fertility rate (TFR) - the average number of children born to one woman in her lifetime - continues to rise. According to analytical data from Finprom.kz, in 2023, Uzbekistan's TFR was 3.4, the highest in the region. Tajikistan followed with a ratio of 3.1, Kazakhstan at 3.0, and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan at 2.7 each. In a global context, Central Asia's fertility rates are still higher than average. According to OurWorldinData, the world TFR in 2023 was 2.3. By comparison, countries like the U.S., India, and China had rates between 1.2 and 2.2, while in some African countries such as Somalia or Niger, TFR exceeded 6. In absolute numbers, Uzbekistan led the region in births with 962,000 newborns in 2023 - a 14.3% increase from 2020. Kazakhstan ranked second with 388,400 births, although its birth rate continued to decline after a pandemic-era baby boom. The highest TFR per 1,000 people was also recorded in Uzbekistan (26.4), followed by Tajikistan (24.6) and Kazakhstan (19.5), where births have fallen for the second consecutive year. Despite declining fertility rates, Central Asia's population is growing steadily. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) projects the region's population to reach 80 million in 2025, marking a 2.2 million increase since 2020. Uzbekistan remains the most populous nation, accounting for 45.2% of the region's total population at 36.9 million, followed by Kazakhstan (20.3 million), Turkmenistan (8.1 million), and Kyrgyzstan (8.9 million). Population growth in the region is driven by natural increases, with annual rates of 2.5% in Uzbekistan, 1.9% in Tajikistan, 1.5% in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and 1.4% in Kyrgyzstan. These figures reflect stable demographic dynamics across Central Asia.