Demographics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Census

Opinion: Uzbekistan Census – When the Village Reappears in the City

Uzbekistan's first census in 37 years did more than revise the country's population upward. It changed the map of where pressure is accumulating. The preliminary results put the population at 39,047,321 – 810,617 above the official estimate. That alone resets a planning baseline. Schools, clinics, housing, labor forecasts, and regional budgets all depend on knowing how many people a state is governing. The deeper story lies in the distribution. The largest correction was in Tashkent Region. Its population had been estimated at roughly 3.2 million. The census put it at nearly 3.8 million, moving it from seventh to third among Uzbekistan's regions. Five regions, Namangan, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, and Bukhara, came in below estimate. This suggests that demographic pressure is more concentrated in and around Tashkent than the planning baseline assumed. The central question is now absorption: whether the state can integrate people whom a narrowing rural economy, growing water stress, tighter access to Russia's labor market, and rising expectations are all pushing toward its cities. The Arithmetic of Absorption More than 600,000 young people enter Uzbekistan's job market each year. The administration has said that by 2030, the annual figure will reach one million. Official unemployment fell to 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, but 760,000 people were nevertheless registered as job seekers. Moreover the International Labour Organization estimates that informal employment accounts for about 40% of the workforce. Those figures complicate the headline rate. Much of the intake is still not finding stable, formal, better-paid work. This is the arithmetic driving everything else. The gap between the number entering the labor market and the number the formal economy can absorb has not disappeared, rather it has relocated. Some of this pressure has moved abroad, while the rest remains in villages as underemployment or has shifted to regional towns. But the census shows that much of it is shifting toward Tashkent and the region around it, where jobs, construction sites, universities, and expectations are concentrated. This does not mean every young person is leaving the countryside, or that rural life is collapsing. Uzbekistan's village economy remains large and socially central. Yet it can no longer absorb pressure as it once did, while older outlets are narrowing. How Water Multiplies the Pressure Water stress is one force among several. People leave when rural livelihoods become less secure, farm income less reliable, and the city starts to look like the only route into cash, education, and mobility. The rural economy was already changing before the latest water shocks. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries accounted for 17.3% of GDP in 2025, down from 18.5% a year earlier. That is not necessarily a sign of failure. It is part of economic transformation. The problem begins when the transition outpaces the state's capacity to absorb people who lose their foothold in the old economy. Water rarely drives rural migration by itself. It erodes the remaining foothold of those still holding on. In vulnerable agricultural regions, especially along the Amu Darya, shortages sharpen an already...

Census

Uzbekistan Census Reveals Bigger Population, Younger Pressure, and Planning Gaps

Uzbekistan's first full census since the Soviet era has found more than 810,000 people who were missing from the country's running estimates, shifting the baseline for schools, clinics, housing, labor forecasts, regional budgets, and agriculture. The preliminary results put Uzbekistan's population at 39,047,321 as of January 15, 2026. That was 810,617 more than the official estimate used at the start of the year. The gap is only 2.1% in percentage terms, but in practical terms it is the size of a major city. The count also shows a country that is larger, younger, and harder to plan for than regular estimates suggested. It gives the authorities a new map of where people live, how old they are, what homes they occupy, and how much farmland and livestock the economy really has. National Statistics Committee Chairman Behzod Hamrayev presented the first results in Tashkent on June 30. The count was part of a combined population and agricultural census held from January 15 to February 28 under a September 2025 decree. It was the first such count in independent Uzbekistan. The last nationwide census took place in 1989, when the country was still part of the Soviet Union. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan's permanent population was estimated at 38,236,704 on January 1, 2026. Two weeks later, the census found 39,047,321 people. Men numbered 19,766,166, or 50.6% of the population, and women 19,281,155, or 49.4%. The census also counted 56,900 foreign citizens who had lived in Uzbekistan for more than a year, mostly from India, Russia, and Kazakhstan. The largest corrections appear to be regional. Most of the 810,617-person difference was concentrated in Tashkent Region. Its population rose from an estimate of about 3.2 million to nearly 3.8 million, moving it from seventh to third among Uzbekistan's 14 administrative territories. Five regions, Namangan, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, and Bukhara, came in below earlier estimates. The changes represent more than a statistical adjustment: a region that suddenly has about 600,000 more people on paper needs different calculations for roads, schools, clinics, water networks, public transport, land use, and housing. It also changes the way Tashkent Region is compared with the capital and other fast-growing parts of the country. The first demographic results show the pressure that is coming through the age structure. Children under five were the largest age group, at 4.6 million. There were 3.86 million people aged 5-9 and 3.41 million aged 10-14. The working-age population stood at 21.7 million, while 12.5 million people were below working age. Nearly 169,000 residents were 85 or older. Uzbekistan is not Central Asia's youngest country, but it is the region's largest young society. OSW put Central Asia's median age at 26.6, with Tajikistan the youngest at 22.1 and Kazakhstan the oldest at 29.6. By comparison, Eurostat said the European Union's median age reached 44.9 on January 1, 2025. Uzbekistan's challenge is therefore different from Europe's: it must educate, house, employ, and retain a large rising generation. The housing results also changed planning...

Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Demographic Shift Puts Labor Market Under Strain

Kazakhstan’s population surpassed 20.5 million in the spring of 2026, but the country’s rapid demographic growth is increasingly being accompanied by structural economic imbalances. Kazakhstan is simultaneously facing the effects of declining birth rates, population aging, and a widening gap between the education system and labor market needs. Economists warn that the country is entering a phase in which the large generation born during the baby boom of the 2000s is placing growing pressure on the labor market, even as the share of the working-age population gradually declines. According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the number of births peaked in 2021, when 446,500 children were born. By 2025, this figure had fallen to 335,000, the lowest level in the past five years. The total fertility rate also declined to 2.57 children per woman, marking the lowest level since 2009. The decline in births has occurred despite a growing number of women of reproductive age. By early 2026, their number had reached a record 4.79 million. Analysts note that the drop in the overall birth rate to 16.43 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level in more than two decades, points to changing household behavioral patterns. In Kazakhstan’s largest cities, including Almaty and Astana, families are increasingly postponing childbirth because of high housing costs and rising debt burdens. The average age of motherhood has approached 30 years, reaching 29.9. High inflation is adding further pressure on households. Annual inflation remained in double digits in early 2026, which, combined with mortgage expenses, has made raising large families significantly less affordable for the urban middle class. Kazakhstan’s demographic dynamics are also becoming increasingly uneven. In the southern and western regions, fertility rates remain above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However, in northern regions, fertility has declined to between 1.63 and 1.75, approaching levels more typical of Eastern European countries. Population growth is still supported by rising life expectancy and relatively low mortality, around 6.64 deaths per 1,000 people over the past four years. Nevertheless, demographers warn that the current increase in population masks a gradual future decline in the labor force. One of the key risks is the shrinking share of the working-age population. Over the past decade, it has fallen from 64% to 57.7%, increasing pressure on employed citizens to finance pension and social welfare systems. Experts warn that a decline in the number of contributors paying mandatory social contributions creates long-term risks for Kazakhstan’s Unified Accumulative Pension Fund and the Social Health Insurance Fund. At the same time, an aging population is increasing state healthcare expenditures. Businesses are already facing labor shortages in some industrial and agricultural regions. In the North Kazakhstan Region, employers have reported shortages in agriculture, manufacturing, and other key sectors. Kazakhstan adds more than 350,000 new labor market entrants each year, thanks to the generation born in the early 2000s. However, instead of entering industry or agriculture, many young people are increasingly choosing jobs in the urban service economy, including taxi services, delivery...

Aging Population

Kazakhstan’s Population Is Aging Rapidly as Demographic Pressures Mount

Kazakhstan’s population is aging rapidly, with the number of elderly citizens growing significantly faster than the child population as birth rates continue to decline. According to a study by analysts at Energyprom.kz, the country’s aging index has been steadily rising. In 2021, Kazakhstan had 26.7 elderly people for every 100 children under the age of 15. By 2025, that figure had increased to 32.9. The data suggests Kazakhstan is gradually entering a demographic phase in which the proportion of elderly citizens is growing much faster than the younger population. The trend is particularly pronounced in urban areas, where the aging index rose from 28.8 to 34.9 over four years. Rural areas remain relatively younger, though the index there also increased from 23.9 to 29.6. Researchers say the most difficult demographic situation is emerging in the country’s northern and eastern regions. The highest aging index was recorded in the North Kazakhstan Region at 84.1, followed by the East Kazakhstan Region at 80.7 and the Kostanay Region at 71.3. In practical terms, the number of elderly residents in these areas is approaching the number of children. High aging rates were also recorded in the Pavlodar, Karaganda, and Akmola regions. By contrast, Kazakhstan’s youngest demographic profiles remain concentrated in the southern and oil-producing regions. The lowest aging indexes were recorded in the Mangystau Region at 16.2, the Turkestan Region at 17.2, and the city of Shymkent at 17. Nevertheless, even these regions are showing gradual aging trends. Analysts say the primary driver of the shift is the changing balance between declining birth rates and the growing elderly population. Although Kazakhstan’s total population continues to increase, its demographic structure is becoming noticeably older. The number of children under the age of 14, after years of growth, has begun to decline. At the beginning of 2024 and 2025, the figure stood at around 5.9 million, but by early 2026 it had fallen to 5.8 million. At the same time, the number of Kazakhstanis aged over 65 continues to rise rapidly. Over the past decade, the elderly population increased from 1.2 million to 2 million people, an increase of nearly 60%. Additional pressure comes from falling birth rates. Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate dropped to 16.4 births per 1,000 people in 2025, compared to 23.5 in 2021, a decline of almost one-third in just a few years. The lowest birth rates are being recorded in the North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and East Kazakhstan regions. However, even traditionally younger regions such as Turkestan and Mangystau are seeing fertility rates gradually decline. Experts warn that overall population growth is no longer compensating for changes in the country’s age structure. While the population is still increasing in absolute terms, the share of elderly citizens is rising much more rapidly. According to analysts, the trend is likely to place increasing pressure on Kazakhstan’s healthcare system, labor market, pension system, and social welfare infrastructure in the coming years.

Demographics

Central Asia’s Population Could Reach 96 Million by 2040, Raising Infrastructure Pressures

Central Asia’s population could grow to 96 million by 2040, a trend expected to stimulate economic expansion while placing significant strain on infrastructure, energy systems, and water resources across the region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. In an interview with TASS, Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said demographic growth would be one of the defining factors shaping Central Asia’s long-term development. “By 2040, according to our estimates, the population of Central Asia may reach 96 million. This should become a driver of economic growth, but at the same time such numbers will create enormous pressure on infrastructure,” he said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Central Asia’s population exceeded 84 million in 2025, continuing a rapid upward trend after surpassing 80 million in 2024. Projections indicate that the population could exceed 100 million by 2050, underscoring the scale of demographic and economic transformation facing the region in the coming decades. Podguzov added that the region would require significant progress in energy efficiency, modern transport systems, and water management to ensure sustainable development. He described Central Asia as one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. According to EDB forecasts, water shortages are expected to intensify, with an annual deficit potentially reaching between 5 and 12 cubic kilometers by 2028. A substantial portion of water resources is already lost due to outdated irrigation and distribution systems. Podguzov said the bank is financing projects to modernize irrigation networks, introduce water-saving technologies, and implement digital water accounting mechanisms across the region. To address these challenges, the EDB has proposed a Eurasian Transport Framework, a network of transport corridors aimed at lowering logistics costs and accelerating trade flows. While existing routes predominantly run east to west, Podguzov emphasized the growing importance of north-south connections, including the potential Trans-Afghan corridor, which could provide access to markets in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The bank projects that the combined economies of Central Asia’s five countries will reach approximately $600 billion in 2026, positioning the region among the fastest-growing globally. However, Podguzov stressed that demographic expansion, transport development, and water security are closely interconnected challenges that require coordinated policy responses.

Migration

The Number of Migrants from Tajikistan to Russia Has Decreased Significantly

The number of citizens of Tajikistan applying to participate in Russia’s state "Program for the Voluntary Resettlement of Compatriots" has declined sharply, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. The issue drew public attention following remarks by the head of the Russian cultural organization Rossotrudnichestvo, Yevgeny Primakov. He stated that in the first three quarters of last year, 27,700 people received certificates to participate in the program, of whom 21,400 have already relocated to Russia. Applicants originated from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. However, official statistics indicate that Tajikistan is no longer among the leading source countries. In the first quarter of 2023, Tajik citizens accounted for 37.2% of all applications submitted under the program. By the first quarter of 2025, their share had fallen to 4.1%, moving the country from first place to seventh. In the third quarter of 2025, the share of applicants from Tajikistan dropped further to 2.4%, the lowest level recorded during the period under review. Kazakhstan ranked first in terms of the number of applications submitted. In the second and third quarters of 2025, most applications came from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As a result, Tajik citizens no longer play a leading role in the program, while the relative positions of other Central Asian countries have strengthened. Experts attribute the decline primarily to changes in program requirements. Since January 1, 2024, applicants have been required to demonstrate proficiency in the Russian language. Following the introduction of this requirement, the number of applications from Tajik citizens decreased markedly. Demographic factors may also have contributed. The average migrant family consists of approximately 2.3 people. This profile is more typical of Russian-speaking and non-indigenous populations in the region, which may have influenced the redistribution of applicants among participating countries. Official reports from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs indicate a steady decline in the share of applicants from Tajikistan and challenge claims of mass migration of Tajik citizens to Russia under the program.