Currency - The Times Of Central Asia

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Tajikistan Nears Full Transition to Ruble in Trade with Russia, As Bilateral Trade Surges

Tajikistan has nearly completed its transition to ruble payments in trade with Russia, with over 90% of transactions now conducted in Russian currency, according to Firdavs Tolibzoda, head of the National Bank of Tajikistan. This marks a significant shift from 2021, when trade between the two countries was evenly split between the ruble and the U.S. dollar. Tolibzoda highlighted that Tajik banks are working to minimize financial risks by primarily cooperating with Russian banks that are not subject to international sanctions. The shift away from the dollar in Tajik-Russian trade began after Western sanctions were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Over the past three years, Tajik exchange offices have no longer faced periodic shortages of U.S. currency, a problem that was common before the transition to ruble payments. In 2024, bilateral trade between Tajikistan and Russia is expected to reach $1.98 billion, reflecting a 15.6% increase from 2023. However, trade remains highly imbalanced. Russian imports account for 95.2% of total trade, with Tajikistan purchasing oil products and essential goods, while Tajikistan’s exports to Russia amounted to just $96 million, primarily consisting of vegetables, fruits, and mineral products such as ores and concentrates. Despite Russia’s dominant role as Tajikistan’s largest trading partner, China is rapidly catching up. In 2024, Russia accounted for 22.1% of Tajikistan’s total foreign trade turnover, while China’s share reached 21.8%. Trade with China grew by 30.1% over the past year, almost double the growth rate of trade with Russia, indicating a shifting dynamic in Tajikistan’s economic partnerships.

Kyrgyzstan Eyes Digital Currency to Modernize Financial System

The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) has announced plans to launch a digital national currency, the digital som. The financial regulator expects the initiative to bolster the country’s financial sector and enhance public administration. New Opportunities The NBKR envisions the digital som transforming Kyrgyzstan’s financial landscape and increasing cashless transactions. One major advantage is improved control over budget spending. Additionally, the digital currency will allow payments even in areas without Internet access - crucial for remote regions with limited connectivity. Using simple technologies such as QR codes and mobile applications, citizens will be able to make quick and convenient payments for goods and services. “The monopoly of central banks to issue money is already ending. Anyone with a computer can create cryptocurrencies and various coins. We are keeping pace with this trend,” noted Akylbek Japarov, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers. He added that the Ministry of Finance plans to issue digital currency by 2025, allocating up to 27 billion KGS ($314 million) for digital bonds, treasury bills, and gold-backed coins. Under the government’s plan, the digital som will coexist with traditional cash and non-cash currencies. Authorities have devised mechanisms to facilitate its integration into the financial market. Commercial banks connected to the system will receive digital soms in their digital wallets, while equivalent amounts will be debited from their accounts with the National Bank. Transfers of digital soms between individuals will occur via existing banking infrastructure. Digital Stability The NBKR aims to integrate the digital som into the financial system by the end of 2026, with prototype testing scheduled for early 2025. Experts highlight the potential benefits despite some challenges. Economist Nurgul Akimova explained to Times of Central Asia that the Central Bank’s digital currency will feature robust security measures, including advanced cryptography to prevent fraud and ensure confidentiality. State control over issuance will ensure stability and reliability, distinguishing it from electronic money, which can be vulnerable to bank bankruptcies. Digital currency also offers new opportunities for public administration, particularly in taxation. Akimova noted that programmable features could automate tax deductions and other payments to the state, fostering trust and simplifying interactions between citizens and the government. “For the digital som to succeed, it must be widely accessible and easy to use, complementing existing financial instruments,” Akimova added. “Drawing on global experience and our unique national context, digital currency could become a universal means of payment for everyone. This marks a step toward a more modern, inclusive, and sustainable financial system in Kyrgyzstan.” Challenges Ahead However, certain hurdles remain. Akimova pointed out that introducing the digital som to international markets could pose difficulties, as cross-border payments in digital currencies will require the approval of other states.

EDB Forecasts Strengthening of the Tenge in 2025

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has projected a strengthening of Kazakhstan’s national currency, the tenge, in 2025. This forecast was presented by Aigul Berdigulova, a senior analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the bank’s macroeconomic outlook for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states. Exchange Rate Outlook The tenge’s exchange rate has been under significant pressure, depreciating from 495 KZT per U.S. dollar in mid-November to 523.58 KZT by December 5, according to Kazakhstan’s National Bank. Exchange offices have reported rates as high as 525 KZT per dollar. The National Bank attributes this decline to external factors, such as fluctuating global commodity prices - critical to Kazakhstan’s export economy - and the weakening of the Russian ruble, a key trade partner’s currency. Internal factors, including heightened demand for foreign currency, have further contributed to the tenge’s volatility. To stabilize the market, the National Bank intervened with $1.2 million from the National Fund in November. Despite these challenges, EDB analysts anticipate a rebound in 2024 and beyond. “We believe the current volatility in Kazakhstan’s currency market is temporary,” said Berdigulova. She emphasized that the National Bank and government are employing timely measures, including mandatory sales of 50% of foreign currency earnings by quasi-governmental entities and increased transfers from the National Fund. The EDB forecasts the average annual exchange rate in Kazakhstan to reach 486 KZT per dollar in 2025, a slight depreciation from the projected 466 KZT per dollar in 2024. By 2026-2027, the tenge is expected to stabilize at around 497 KZT per dollar. Inflation and Monetary Policy High inflation remains a concern. The EDB predicts inflation in Kazakhstan will decline to 7.3% by the end of 2025, hindered by rising tariffs for housing and utilities. To manage inflation, the National Bank is likely to maintain a high prime rate, above 15%, through the first quarter of 2025. However, as inflationary pressures ease, the rate may decrease to 11.25% by late 2025. External Influences and Oil Revenues Marina Sobolevskaya, head of the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, acknowledged that the Russian ruble's depreciation would continue to impact the tenge, with the ruble expected to weaken from 92.5 per dollar in 2024 to 104 per dollar in 2025 and 107 per dollar by 2027. On the other hand, Kazakhstan’s currency could gain support from increased oil production, particularly from expanded operations at the Tengiz oil field. Higher exports and foreign currency inflows could mitigate currency fluctuations in the domestic market. Short-Term Recovery The possibility of a short-term recovery for the tenge was also suggested by Murat Temirkhanov, an advisor at Halyk Finance. He attributed recent volatility to a surge in demand for dollars, driven by sanctions-induced ruble depreciation. Temirkhanov argued that the tenge-dollar exchange rate’s sensitivity to the ruble is overstated, given the relatively small share of ruble settlements in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade. Halyk Finance estimates the tenge’s current exchange rate of 525 KZT per dollar is above its fundamental value, which should be closer to 505 KZT per dollar....

Kazakhstan Seeks to Stabilize Currency as Tenge Hits Record Low

Kazakhstan’s central bank said Monday that it has spent more than $1 billion in foreign exchange interventions since mid-November in an effort to stabilize the declining currency, which has passed the threshold of 500 tenge to the U.S. dollar and hit record lows. Kazakh officials attribute the drop to the global appreciation of the dollar, a decrease in oil prices, the tumbling Russian ruble and other factors. The National Bank said it expects to spend another $800 million or $900 million in foreign currency sales in December to cover transfers from the National Fund to the state budget. It also noted that the government on Nov. 19 reinstated a requirement that “quasi-government entities” sell 50% of foreign currency revenue as a measure to balance the FX market. “On the domestic FX market, there was an increase in demand for foreign currency from economic agents and a limited supply, partly due to the exchange rate surpassing a psychological threshold,” said the bank, referring to the 500 tenge to the dollar barrier. “Amid the deterioration of several fundamental factors, to prevent destabilizing fluctuations, smooth excessive volatility in the tenge exchange rate, and ensure the supply of foreign currency, the National Bank conducted foreign exchange interventions from November 15 to November 28. The total volume of currency sales for the month amounted to USD 1,047 million,” it said. The tenge fell to a record low of 520 to the dollar on Monday, according to financial news reports. The Bloomberg news agency said the currency went as low as 530 to the dollar on Monday afternoon, amounting to a loss of more than 13% for the year so far. A significant factor affecting the tenge is the fall in the value of the ruble, which took another hit last month after new Western sanctions were imposed on Gazprombank, a Russian state-owned bank that handles energy transactions. Kazakhstan and Russia are major trading partners. On a visit to Kazakhstan last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted growing trade between the two countries and said: “Payments were and still are a problem, but we now have over 80 percent of payments made in national currencies, which, of course, makes our work in the financial sphere easier.” Russia accounts for almost 20% of Kazakhstan's foreign trade, according to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He said last week that Kazakhstan remains a partner of Russia during this “difficult” time, possibly a reference to geopolitical tensions and economic challenges related to Russia’s war in Ukraine. On Monday, Nurlan Baibazarov, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister and minister of the national economy, appealed for calm, said finances are stable and that Kazakhstan had weathered similar exchange rate fluctuations at the beginning of the war in early 2022, according to the Orda.kz news site.

Uzbekistan’s Financial Data Now Available on Bloomberg Terminal

Market data from the Uzbek Republican Currency Exchange (UZCE) is now accessible on the Bloomberg Terminal, marking a significant step toward integrating Uzbekistan’s financial market into the global economy. Bloomberg users can now analyze real-time pricing and indicators for Uzbekistan’s currency, money markets, state securities, and derivatives. Expanding Accessibility The UZCE, which includes 35 local commercial banks, six brokerage firms, and one foreign custodian bank, serves as Uzbekistan’s primary platform for liquidity. It offers trading in approximately 20 instruments across various market segments. In 2023, the UZCE reported a total trading volume of $81 billion. By making this data available on Bloomberg, Uzbekistan aims to attract foreign investors by providing them with the tools to understand its financial market and assess trends more effectively. This transparency simplifies risk assessment and enhances decision-making for global market participants. Strengthening Market Confidence Rashid Usmanov, Director General of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, highlighted the impact of this partnership, stating: “This partnership with Bloomberg will help participants in global markets to get up-to-date and accurate information from the UZCE in different segments of the exchange, thereby more effectively managing their assets. Increasing transparency and openness of data will strengthen market confidence and ensure an increase in liquidity.” The Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s market data is available via Bloomberg’s data license and the “B-PIPE” channel, providing real-time market information. This collaboration enhances the global visibility of Uzbekistan’s financial sector, positioning the country as a more attractive destination for international investment.

Uzbekistan’s Gold and Currency Reserves Reach Record Levels

As of September 1, Uzbekistan's international reserves reached $39.15 billion. This reserve value is a record indicator for after 2018 when data disclosure began. In August, the value of international assets increased by $1.75 billion, or about 4.7%, compared to July's increase of $1.06 billion. This increase was mainly due to gold. Although the net physical volume of gold in official reserves decreased from 12.1 ounces to 12 ounces during August, the metal's price on the world market has increased significantly. Due to this, the value of the gold part of reserves increased by $1.24 billion or 4.4% to $30.39 billion in one month. Since the beginning of 2024, the price of gold has risen by 20% on the world market. Last month, the price of standard gold bullion exceeded a million dollars for the first time in history. Uzbekistan was one of the countries that bought the most gold in July. In August, reserve assets in foreign currencies increased from $7.68 billion to $8.19 billion (+ $503.1 million). Uzbekistan’s gold-currency reserves have increased by $4.59 billion or 13.3% since the beginning of the year. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan’s gold reserves reached $37.4 billion in August.