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Economy

EDB Forecasts Strengthening of the Tenge in 2025

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has projected a strengthening of Kazakhstan’s national currency, the tenge, in 2025. This forecast was presented by Aigul Berdigulova, a senior analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the bank’s macroeconomic outlook for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states. Exchange Rate Outlook The tenge’s exchange rate has been under significant pressure, depreciating from 495 KZT per U.S. dollar in mid-November to 523.58 KZT by December 5, according to Kazakhstan’s National Bank. Exchange offices have reported rates as high as 525 KZT per dollar. The National Bank attributes this decline to external factors, such as fluctuating global commodity prices - critical to Kazakhstan’s export economy - and the weakening of the Russian ruble, a key trade partner’s currency. Internal factors, including heightened demand for foreign currency, have further contributed to the tenge’s volatility. To stabilize the market, the National Bank intervened with $1.2 million from the National Fund in November. Despite these challenges, EDB analysts anticipate a rebound in 2024 and beyond. “We believe the current volatility in Kazakhstan’s currency market is temporary,” said Berdigulova. She emphasized that the National Bank and government are employing timely measures, including mandatory sales of 50% of foreign currency earnings by quasi-governmental entities and increased transfers from the National Fund. The EDB forecasts the average annual exchange rate in Kazakhstan to reach 486 KZT per dollar in 2025, a slight depreciation from the projected 466 KZT per dollar in 2024. By 2026-2027, the tenge is expected to stabilize at around 497 KZT per dollar. Inflation and Monetary Policy High inflation remains a concern. The EDB predicts inflation in Kazakhstan will decline to 7.3% by the end of 2025, hindered by rising tariffs for housing and utilities. To manage inflation, the National Bank is likely to maintain a high prime rate, above 15%, through the first quarter of 2025. However, as inflationary pressures ease, the rate may decrease to 11.25% by late 2025. External Influences and Oil Revenues Marina Sobolevskaya, head of the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, acknowledged that the Russian ruble's depreciation would continue to impact the tenge, with the ruble expected to weaken from 92.5 per dollar in 2024 to 104 per dollar in 2025 and 107 per dollar by 2027. On the other hand, Kazakhstan’s currency could gain support from increased oil production, particularly from expanded operations at the Tengiz oil field. Higher exports and foreign currency inflows could mitigate currency fluctuations in the domestic market. Short-Term Recovery The possibility of a short-term recovery for the tenge was also suggested by Murat Temirkhanov, an advisor at Halyk Finance. He attributed recent volatility to a surge in demand for dollars, driven by sanctions-induced ruble depreciation. Temirkhanov argued that the tenge-dollar exchange rate’s sensitivity to the ruble is overstated, given the relatively small share of ruble settlements in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade. Halyk Finance estimates the tenge’s current exchange rate of 525 KZT per dollar is above its fundamental value, which should be closer to 505 KZT per dollar....

Finance

Kazakhstan Seeks to Stabilize Currency as Tenge Hits Record Low

Kazakhstan’s central bank said Monday that it has spent more than $1 billion in foreign exchange interventions since mid-November in an effort to stabilize the declining currency, which has passed the threshold of 500 tenge to the U.S. dollar and hit record lows. Kazakh officials attribute the drop to the global appreciation of the dollar, a decrease in oil prices, the tumbling Russian ruble and other factors. The National Bank said it expects to spend another $800 million or $900 million in foreign currency sales in December to cover transfers from the National Fund to the state budget. It also noted that the government on Nov. 19 reinstated a requirement that “quasi-government entities” sell 50% of foreign currency revenue as a measure to balance the FX market. “On the domestic FX market, there was an increase in demand for foreign currency from economic agents and a limited supply, partly due to the exchange rate surpassing a psychological threshold,” said the bank, referring to the 500 tenge to the dollar barrier. “Amid the deterioration of several fundamental factors, to prevent destabilizing fluctuations, smooth excessive volatility in the tenge exchange rate, and ensure the supply of foreign currency, the National Bank conducted foreign exchange interventions from November 15 to November 28. The total volume of currency sales for the month amounted to USD 1,047 million,” it said. The tenge fell to a record low of 520 to the dollar on Monday, according to financial news reports. The Bloomberg news agency said the currency went as low as 530 to the dollar on Monday afternoon, amounting to a loss of more than 13% for the year so far. A significant factor affecting the tenge is the fall in the value of the ruble, which took another hit last month after new Western sanctions were imposed on Gazprombank, a Russian state-owned bank that handles energy transactions. Kazakhstan and Russia are major trading partners. On a visit to Kazakhstan last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted growing trade between the two countries and said: “Payments were and still are a problem, but we now have over 80 percent of payments made in national currencies, which, of course, makes our work in the financial sphere easier.” Russia accounts for almost 20% of Kazakhstan's foreign trade, according to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He said last week that Kazakhstan remains a partner of Russia during this “difficult” time, possibly a reference to geopolitical tensions and economic challenges related to Russia’s war in Ukraine. On Monday, Nurlan Baibazarov, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister and minister of the national economy, appealed for calm, said finances are stable and that Kazakhstan had weathered similar exchange rate fluctuations at the beginning of the war in early 2022, according to the Orda.kz news site.

Finance

Uzbekistan’s Financial Data Now Available on Bloomberg Terminal

Market data from the Uzbek Republican Currency Exchange (UZCE) is now accessible on the Bloomberg Terminal, marking a significant step toward integrating Uzbekistan’s financial market into the global economy. Bloomberg users can now analyze real-time pricing and indicators for Uzbekistan’s currency, money markets, state securities, and derivatives. Expanding Accessibility The UZCE, which includes 35 local commercial banks, six brokerage firms, and one foreign custodian bank, serves as Uzbekistan’s primary platform for liquidity. It offers trading in approximately 20 instruments across various market segments. In 2023, the UZCE reported a total trading volume of $81 billion. By making this data available on Bloomberg, Uzbekistan aims to attract foreign investors by providing them with the tools to understand its financial market and assess trends more effectively. This transparency simplifies risk assessment and enhances decision-making for global market participants. Strengthening Market Confidence Rashid Usmanov, Director General of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, highlighted the impact of this partnership, stating: “This partnership with Bloomberg will help participants in global markets to get up-to-date and accurate information from the UZCE in different segments of the exchange, thereby more effectively managing their assets. Increasing transparency and openness of data will strengthen market confidence and ensure an increase in liquidity.” The Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s market data is available via Bloomberg’s data license and the “B-PIPE” channel, providing real-time market information. This collaboration enhances the global visibility of Uzbekistan’s financial sector, positioning the country as a more attractive destination for international investment.

Finance

Uzbekistan’s Gold and Currency Reserves Reach Record Levels

As of September 1, Uzbekistan's international reserves reached $39.15 billion. This reserve value is a record indicator for after 2018 when data disclosure began. In August, the value of international assets increased by $1.75 billion, or about 4.7%, compared to July's increase of $1.06 billion. This increase was mainly due to gold. Although the net physical volume of gold in official reserves decreased from 12.1 ounces to 12 ounces during August, the metal's price on the world market has increased significantly. Due to this, the value of the gold part of reserves increased by $1.24 billion or 4.4% to $30.39 billion in one month. Since the beginning of 2024, the price of gold has risen by 20% on the world market. Last month, the price of standard gold bullion exceeded a million dollars for the first time in history. Uzbekistan was one of the countries that bought the most gold in July. In August, reserve assets in foreign currencies increased from $7.68 billion to $8.19 billion (+ $503.1 million). Uzbekistan’s gold-currency reserves have increased by $4.59 billion or 13.3% since the beginning of the year. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan’s gold reserves reached $37.4 billion in August.

Finance

Kyrgyzstan Proposes Banning Foreign Currencies in Domestic Transactions

Members of Kyrgyzstan's Parliament, the Jogorku Kenesh, have proposed that the national currency, the som, be established as the only means of payment in the country. The draft bill establishes that the som must be used in all domestic transactions, except for those related to export and import. It is seen as a step to reduce Kyrgyzstan's dependence on foreign currency, and stabilize the country's financial system. The draft law emphasizes that using foreign currencies -- especially in real estate, vehicle purchasing, and lending transactions -- creates additional risks for citizens. Sharp fluctuations in exchange rates make it more difficult for borrowers to repay debts. Similar measures have also been taken in Turkmenistan, where using foreign currency for everyday payments is almost entirely outlawed. Iraq has banned all domestic transactions to strengthen and stabilize the local currency, the Iraqi dinar.

Currency Legislation Economy Finance

Kyrgyzstan’s New 5,000 Som Banknotes Enter Circulation

A new banknote worth 5,000 som (U$56.60) has been put into circulation in Kyrgyzstan starting today, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic has announced. The 5,000 som banknote is part of the new fifth series of the national currency, produced from a 2023 sample, and went into circulation on May 10, 2024. The new banknote contains a portrait of the renowned Kyrgyz actor and artist, Suymenkul Chokmorov on the front side, and a depiction of the famed movie theater, Ala-Too, on the obeverse. The main color and size of the banknote has remained unchanged. "The banknote of 5,000 som nominal value contains a three-level complex of modern security elements, providing reliable protection against counterfeiting. All banknotes of the national currency have the status of official means of payment in the Kyrgyz Republic and are subject to mandatory acceptance as a means of payment regardless of the year of issue," the national bank's press service stated. The first series of banknotes of Kyrgyzstan's national currency were introduced on May 10, 1993. The exchange rate then was set at 200 Soviet rubles to one Kyrgyz som.