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Currency

Kazakh Tenge Rises as Foreign Investors Buy Government Debt

Kazakhstan’s tenge has strengthened by 9.7% against the dollar since the start of 2026, making it the best-performing currency across Europe and Asia, according to the Financial Times. The newspaper points to an influx of foreign capital into Kazakhstan’s government debt: nonresident holdings of tenge-denominated bonds have risen from roughly $2 billion to $5 billion over the past year. The appreciation has come despite serious disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports through Russia. Kazakh data show that foreign interest in government securities did not begin this summer. In July alone, nonresidents increased their holdings by 92.2 billion tenge, about $195 million, to 2.6 trillion tenge, or roughly $5.5 billion. Since the start of the year, their portfolio has grown by 32.9%, while their share of the market has risen from 6.2% to 7.2%. The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) attributes the interest to high real interest rates and relative macroeconomic stability. Why Foreign Investors Are Buying Kazakh Debt During 2025, nonresident holdings of Kazakh government securities rose from roughly 1.1 trillion tenge, about $2.3 billion, to 2 trillion tenge, about $4.2 billion. Growth continued this year. In June alone, foreign investors added 185.1 billion tenge, about $390 million, bringing their total holdings to 2.5 trillion tenge, roughly $5.3 billion. Their share of the market increased from 6.2% to 6.9% by then. The reason for the interest is fairly straightforward: Kazakhstan offers high yields while maintaining an investment-grade credit rating. The base rate remained at 18% through the spring. The National Bank cut it to 17% in June and announced a further cut to 16.75% on July 24. Annual inflation, meanwhile, declined for a ninth consecutive month and stood at 10.3% in June. For foreign investors, the combination of high interest rates and a strengthening tenge creates an opportunity to earn both on bond yields and currency appreciation. For the tenge itself, the same transaction works in reverse: before buying a Kazakh security, a foreign investor has to acquire the national currency. In June, AFK analysts cited nonresident transactions among the factors supporting the tenge, alongside foreign-currency sales by exporters, state-controlled companies, and the National Bank. Market Access Is Becoming Easier High yields alone do not explain the growing interest. Kazakhstan is also trying to make its domestic debt market easier for international investors to access. A primary dealer system has been operating since May 4. Five banks were granted primary dealer status and are expected to support the government securities market, including buying and selling bonds in the secondary market. In April, the National Bank announced that Euroclear had begun a project to make Kazakhstan’s government bonds eligible for settlement through its international system. A direct link with the local market infrastructure is planned for 2027. For foreign investors, this would make it possible to trade Kazakh government debt through a familiar global settlement system, alongside the existing Clearstream channel. Kazakhstan is also seeking eventual inclusion of its tenge-denominated government bonds in JPMorgan’s GBI-EM, one of the main international indexes for emerging-market government...

Currency

Turkmenistan Introduces New 200 Manat Polymer Banknote

Turkmenistan has unveiled a new 200 manat polymer banknote as part of a broader upgrade to its national currency, state news agency TDH reported on December 1. The Central Bank announced that the new note, along with updated polymer versions of the 1, 5, and 10 manat denominations, has entered circulation in honor of the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan’s recognition as a permanently neutral state. The release also coincides with the 2025 theme: the International Year of Peace and Trust. While the 1, 5, and 10 manat notes retain their existing color schemes and general designs, each now includes the emblem of the International Year of Peace and Trust. The newly introduced 200 manat note depicts the Arkadag Monument on the front and the administrative building of the Arkadag city khyakimlik (mayor’s office) on the reverse. All updated notes bear the year of issue and the facsimile signature of the Central Bank chairperson. The Central Bank emphasized that the new and modified banknotes must be accepted at face value by all institutions and businesses, regardless of ownership or sector. Earlier series issued in 2009, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2020 remain valid legal tender. To combat counterfeiting, authorities advised the public to verify at least five security features when handling cash. Detailed guidance is available on the Central Bank’s official website. Last year, the Central Bank implemented a range of reforms aimed at improving cash quality and strengthening anti-counterfeiting controls throughout the financial system. In a related regional development, Kyrgyzstan in March began domestic production of its national currency, the som, for the first time since gaining independence. The new Kyrgyz banknotes are printed by the Bishkek-based Open Joint Stock Company Uchkun, replacing previous reliance on European printing facilities.

Banking

Dollarization in Kyrgyzstan Declines as Banks Report Lower Profits

The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) has reported a continued decline in dollarization within the country’s banking sector, reflecting growing public confidence in the national currency. As of early September, the share of foreign currency loans in the banking sector dropped to 18%, down from over 20% at the start of the year. The decrease is even more pronounced in the deposit base: the share of foreign currency deposits fell from 43% to 38% during the first eight months of 2025. NBKR officials say households are increasingly moving away from the U.S. dollar and other foreign currencies as trust in the national currency, the som, strengthens. Despite the reduction in foreign currency lending and deposits, the sector overall continues to grow. Since the beginning of the year, deposits in Kyrgyz soms have increased by 21%, reaching 717.6 billion KGS ($8.2 billion). The total loan portfolio rose by 26% to 430 billion KGS ($4.9 billion). However, commercial banks are reporting weaker profitability. Financial statements for January to August 2025 indicate a steep drop in earnings from foreign exchange operations. During this period, turnover in foreign currencies fell by more than 2 billion KGS ($23 million), totaling 18 billion KGS ($206.5 million). Analysts note that the current environment contrasts sharply with conditions just a few years ago. After the onset of Russia's war in Ukraine in 2022 and the introduction of Western sanctions, Kyrgyzstan’s currency market experienced significant volatility. Banks then benefited from heightened demand for exchange operations. But with today’s more stable ruble and reduced fluctuations, those profits have diminished. Just five years ago, the National Bank was actively urging citizens to use the som more broadly. At the time, dollar-denominated loans were more expensive, yet remained popular among Kyrgyz borrowers. Now, the trend has reversed, with households increasingly choosing the national currency over foreign alternatives.

Business Climate

Kazakhstan Factories Under Strain as Costs Bite, Economy Shows Mixed Signals

Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector slipped further in August, with the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 47.9. That was down from 49.9 in July and 49.7 in June, keeping the index below the neutral 50 mark for a third straight month. It also marked the sharpest deterioration in manufacturing activity since March 2022, according to S&P Global and Freedom Holding Corp. From Highs to Lows The striking downturn comes on the heels of a banner year. In December 2024, the PMI reached a record 53.9, capping 11 straight months of expansion. Buoyed by post-pandemic recovery and government support, manufacturing output grew by 6.8% in 2024, the fastest pace since 2011, helping push GDP growth to 5%. But momentum cooled as 2025 began. The PMI slipped to 51.5 in January, reflecting slower expansion after the year-end surge. By June and July, it hovered just under 50, signaling stagnation. Seasonal shutdowns for repairs in August contributed to weaker output, but analysts say the slide points to deeper structural pressures. [caption id="attachment_36026" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Kazakhstan’s PMI peaked at 53.9 in December 2024 but slid steadily through 2025, falling into contraction territory below 50 by mid-year and hitting 47.9 in August — the sharpest deterioration since March 2022.[/caption] Orders Dry Up, Costs Rise The August report revealed broad-based weaknesses. New orders fell for the first time in 19 months, ending a growth streak that began in early 2024. The decline reflected lower demand from both domestic and export markets. With fewer orders, factories scaled back staffing and cut input purchases. At the same time, costs surged. A weak tenge and fuel inflation made imports more expensive, while logistics delays lengthened supplier delivery times. These pressures forced firms to raise output prices at a faster pace, risking competitiveness. “August saw another sharp decline in business activity in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector,” said Yerlan Abdikarimov of Freedom Finance Global, which partners with S&P on the survey. He cited weak demand, volatile commodity markets, rising costs, and currency and tax pressures. Taxes have indeed become a burden. A new code passed in mid-2025 raised the extraction royalties on metals, hitting downstream metallurgy. Inflation stood at 12.2% in August 2025, with the National Bank keeping its policy rate high at 16.5% in a bid to tame prices. That leaves financing costly for businesses, resulting in squeezed margins and thinning confidence. The August survey showed business confidence at its lowest since 2021. While firms still expect growth over the next year, their optimism is increasingly cautious. Industry Responses and Government Initiatives Some executives see hope in the government’s industrial policy. A $400 million cotton-to-textile cluster is under construction with Chinese partners in Turkestan, aiming to process domestic cotton into textiles at scale. Officials say the project, due to start production by late 2025, will create thousands of jobs and expand exports. Light industries, such as textiles and apparel, posted strong growth in the first half of 2025, with clothing up about 5.6% and textiles 5.7% according to official data. Chemicals...

Currency

Opinion: The U.S. Dollar Loses Its Luster as the Uzbek Som Shines

From May 20, 2025, to June 19, 2025, the U.S. dollar declined from 12,885 Uzbek som to 12,625 som, reaching its lowest level since early December 2023. This trend is anticipated to persist. Over the past 30 days, the dollar has depreciated by 2.08% against the som. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan adheres to a flexible exchange rate mechanism, commonly referred to as a floating exchange rate. This approach allows the value of the Uzbek som to be primarily influenced by market forces of supply and demand, rather than being fixed or pegged to another currency. In the context of Uzbekistan, the Central Bank defines the market-determined exchange rate, permitting the som to fluctuate freely based on the interactions between buyers and sellers in the foreign exchange market. In 2017, Uzbekistan transitioned to a flexible exchange rate regime, aligning the som with market conditions and narrowing the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. This move is expected to enhance export competitiveness, as noted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). While the market predominantly determines the exchange rate, the Central Bank reserves the right to intervene in the foreign exchange market to mitigate excessive fluctuations or address significant imbalances. However, it does not maintain a fixed exchange rate. The primary objective of the Central Bank is to uphold price stability, ensuring low and stable inflation. The flexible exchange rate regime empowers the Central Bank to utilize interest rates as a tool to influence inflation and manage the overall economy. Since 2020, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan has been implementing an inflation targeting framework that guides its monetary policy decisions, including those related to the exchange rate. Uzbekistan has recently achieved a remarkable milestone, with its international reserves soaring to an unprecedented $49.6 billion, primarily driven by a substantial increase in gold prices. This significant figure, recorded at the end of last week, represents the highest level of international reserves since the Central Bank of Uzbekistan began tracking this data in 2013. Uzbekistan has been on a remarkable journey of financial growth, marked by a sustained increase in its reserves over the past five months. Since the beginning of the year, the country's reserves have increased by an impressive $8.48 billion, reaching a new historic high of $49.66 billion. In May alone, the reserves saw a substantial boost of $410.2 million, translating to a 0.8% increase compared to April. This consistent upward momentum not only highlights the resilience of Uzbekistan's economy but also demonstrates its ability to adapt and thrive in a dynamic global landscape. Central to this financial ascent has been the role of gold, which has enjoyed significant demand due to its elevated prices in international markets. Over the last month, gold prices surged by 3.27%, rising from $3,280 to $3,390.07 per ounce. When examining the broader trends, it is evident that gold has significantly appreciated, with a striking 25.5% increase since the start of this year and an even more impressive 41.3% surge over...

Finance

Tajikistan Nears Full Transition to Ruble in Trade with Russia, As Bilateral Trade Surges

Tajikistan has nearly completed its transition to ruble payments in trade with Russia, with over 90% of transactions now conducted in Russian currency, according to Firdavs Tolibzoda, head of the National Bank of Tajikistan. This marks a significant shift from 2021, when trade between the two countries was evenly split between the ruble and the U.S. dollar. Tolibzoda highlighted that Tajik banks are working to minimize financial risks by primarily cooperating with Russian banks that are not subject to international sanctions. The shift away from the dollar in Tajik-Russian trade began after Western sanctions were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Over the past three years, Tajik exchange offices have no longer faced periodic shortages of U.S. currency, a problem that was common before the transition to ruble payments. In 2024, bilateral trade between Tajikistan and Russia is expected to reach $1.98 billion, reflecting a 15.6% increase from 2023. However, trade remains highly imbalanced. Russian imports account for 95.2% of total trade, with Tajikistan purchasing oil products and essential goods, while Tajikistan’s exports to Russia amounted to just $96 million, primarily consisting of vegetables, fruits, and mineral products such as ores and concentrates. Despite Russia’s dominant role as Tajikistan’s largest trading partner, China is rapidly catching up. In 2024, Russia accounted for 22.1% of Tajikistan’s total foreign trade turnover, while China’s share reached 21.8%. Trade with China grew by 30.1% over the past year, almost double the growth rate of trade with Russia, indicating a shifting dynamic in Tajikistan’s economic partnerships.