Demographics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Children

Between Statistics and Reality: What the UNICEF Report Reveals About Children in Turkmenistan

The State Committee on Statistics of Turkmenistan, in partnership with UNICEF, has released the report “Census 2022 - The Situation of Children in Turkmenistan”. However, as noted by independent outlet turkmen.news, the report is based on official census data that many experts consider unreliable or inflated, potentially skewing the findings. Despite these concerns, the report offers insight into the country’s demographic and social trends. According to the report, Turkmenistan has a notably “young” population: children aged 0-14 make up 30.7% of the total. In total, 2,463,258 individuals under the age of 17 account for more than one-third of the population. However, a decline in the birth rate is evident: there are 1.2 times fewer children in the 0-4 age group compared to those aged 5-9. Household composition data reveals that families with three or more children are the most common, comprising 43% of all households nationally and 48.9% in rural areas. Families with two children account for 31.1%, and those with one child, 25.9%. This distribution correlates with a broader demographic pattern, 57.8% of all children in Turkmenistan live in rural areas. The demographic dependency ratio remains high: there are 755 dependents per 1,000 working-age individuals. Notably, the child dependency rate is 4.3 times higher than that of the elderly, suggesting a sizable future labor force. The urban-rural divide is also apparent here: in rural areas, the child dependency ratio is 698, compared to 525 in urban centers. The report addresses early marriage and childbirth: among 15-17-year-olds, 1,349 boys (0.9%) and 1,770 girls (1.2%) were in either registered or de facto marriages. Within the same age group, 339 girls had already given birth. The highest rate of teenage births was recorded in Akhal region (4.2 per 1,000), while Ashgabat reported the lowest (1.2 per 1,000). Childhood disability statistics show mobility and stair-climbing difficulties are the most prevalent, affecting 3,106 children aged 5-17. Other reported issues include concentration and memory problems (1,989 cases), hearing impairments (1,791), and visual impairments (1,784). In all categories, boys outnumber girls. One of the most striking disparities is in preschool access. Only 23.8% of children in rural areas attend preschool, compared to 64.7% in urban areas, a rural-urban equity index of just 0.37. Given that the majority of children live in rural areas, the gap reflects systemic challenges, including insufficient infrastructure, transportation issues, and household dynamics where caregiving typically falls to women. Enrollment rates improve significantly for older children. Nearly all children aged 6-15 are in school, with only 0.3-0.4% not attending. However, the dropout rate increases in older age groups, with 5.4% of adolescents not enrolled in school or vocational institutions. No significant gender disparities were observed in this regard. Despite the insights the report offers, it is underpinned by 2022 census data that many independent experts argue is inflated. While Turkmenistan's official population stands at around 7 million, alternative estimates range between 2.7 and 5.7 million. Nevertheless, the release of this report marks a step toward a more open dialogue about the country’s social...

Identity

Petropavl – A City of Two Tales

No one seems to like the name Petropavl. The city, situated in northern Kazakhstan in a peninsula of territory that juts into Russian Siberia, has long lived between two worlds. From monuments to manhole covers, there have long been conflicting stories about who belongs here. In the Russian telling, the city was founded as a fortress on “empty steppe” in 1752 by Tsarist troops, named for Saints Peter and Paul – in Russian, Petropavlovsk. For over a century, it remained a frontier post that guarded the empire’s edge before the push into Central Asia in the mid-nineteenth century. Yet for Kazakhs, this place was never empty: long before the Cossacks came, nomadic Kazakhs from the Middle Zhuz grazed their herds here along the Ishim River, calling the place Qyzyljar – “the red ridge”. [caption id="attachment_38326" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Manhole covers imprinted with Qyzyljar; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Since independence, Kazakhstan has restored the names of thousands of cities, towns, and villages across the country in order to give the land a more Kazakh stamp. But Qyzyljar has not returned. Instead, the authorities’ immediate solution has been to Kazakh-ify the Russian name, leaving us with Petropavl. It’s a fudge that satisfies no one, and the official name is rarely heard on the city streets. In this overwhelmingly Russian-speaking city, most continue to call it “Petropavlovsk,” or even “Piter,” echoing Saint Petersburg’s nickname. Ethnic Russians Ethnic Russians now make up just under half the population of the North Kazakhstan region. In individual cities such as Petropavl, the proportion is far higher, although official information is hard to come by. The boundaries of Kazakhstan’s provinces, or oblasts, were gerrymandered in 1997 to soften perceptions of Russian dominance, but a mere walk around the city makes it clear that about two-thirds of the population is not Kazakh. These numbers and the region’s proximity to Russia have long made it a focus of uneasy attention. When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, President Vladimir Putin remarked that Kazakhstan had “never had statehood” before Nursultan Nazarbayev, and Dmitri Medvedev called it an “artificial state” in 2022 (although he subsequently claimed to have been hacked). Other Russian lawmakers have called northern Kazakhstan “a gift from Russia,” while nationalist commentators as far back as Solzhenitsyn have called for Northern Kazakhstan to be “reunited” with Russia. Dr. Petr Oskolkov, affiliated researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, was part of a team that undertook research on the ethnic Russian population in Kazakhstan in 2020-21, and believes that these fears are overblown. “Initially, there was a lack of public trust in the prospects of Kazakhstani statehood, especially among Russian-speakers. Nowadays, these doubts are absent,” he told The Times of Central Asia. “Moreover, the overall level of the identification with Kazakhstan, and the quality of life, have both grown significantly since the 1990s, so the idea [of separatism] has lost its main appeal.” [caption id="attachment_38320" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Soviet mosaic; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Nevertheless, doom-mongers in Astana worry that Petropavlovsk...

Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Aging Population: Analysts Warn of Healthcare and Economic Risks

Kazakhstan is undergoing a rapid demographic shift as its population ages at an unprecedented pace. According to a recent study by Ranking.kz, the number of citizens aged 60 and above is growing by 3-4% annually. As of early 2025, Kazakhstan had 2.8 million residents over the age of 60, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Seniors now make up 13.9% of the population, up from 12% in 2020 and 9.8% in 2010. The average annual growth rate for this age group has remained steady at around 3.8% since 2010. The gender disparity is notable: 16.4% of women in Kazakhstan are over 60, compared to just 11.3% of men. This demographic shift is largely driven by increasing life expectancy. In 2024, life expectancy in Kazakhstan reached 75.44 years, up from 75.1 the previous year. Women live an average of 79.42 years, while men live 71.33. The only recent decline in life expectancy occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. The trend mirrors global developments. According to data from the IMF, UN, and WHO, global life expectancy has more than doubled over the past century from just 34 years in 1913 to 72 years by 2022 and continues to rise, even as fertility rates fall. When the UN and WHO were founded, children under 15 outnumbered people over 65 by seven to one. By 2050, the two groups are projected to be equal. The proportion of people aged 80 and older is expected to nearly quadruple, reaching 5% of the global population. “These shifts foreshadow a vast array of problems in healthcare, as well as in the social and economic spheres,” IMF analysts caution. Experts warn that aging will reshape Kazakhstan’s labor market, change consumption patterns, and place mounting pressure on the pension system. Like many other countries, Kazakhstan faces the challenge of balancing support for its growing elderly population with the need to sustain long-term economic development.

Demographics

From Boom to Bust: Kyrgyzstan Grapples with Falling Birth Rate

The population of Central Asia when the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991 and the five Central Asian republics became independent countries was some 50 million people. Thirty-four years later, the population of the region is about 80 million. However, in Kyrgyzstan, the birth rate has been declining in recent years, and it has officials confused and alarmed. The Data Kyrgyz parliamentary deputy Dastan Bekeshev raised the matter on August 7, noting the country has seen a steady fall in the number of babies born from 2019, when it reached a record of some 173,000, to about 140,000 in 2024. Bekeshev was responding to recently released figures from Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee that showed the birth rate for 2020 was 156,112, for 2021 it was 150,164, climbing a bit to 150,225 in 2022, then dropping to 145,977 in 2023, and 140,419 in 2024. According to the Health Ministry’s chief specialist on demography, Raisa Asylbasheva, there are currently some 1.8 million women in Kyrgyzstan considered to be of childbearing age. Asylbasheva said it could be cyclical and “in five years, possibly, there will be an increase.” Bekeshev, however, has pointed out that if the trend continues, “In 15-20 years, there will be fewer young people in the country who can work, pay taxes, and provide for pensioners.” The Reasons Among the statistics cited on birth rate, one catches the eye immediately: the average age of a mother giving birth in Kyrgyzstan in 2024 was 28.4 years old. Traditionally, people marry young in Central Asia, and new mothers are often in their late teens or early 20s. It is not uncommon, especially in rural areas, to encounter grandmothers who are not even 40 years old. Many factors potentially play into the reasons for this decline in birth rate, but the general consensus is that socio-economic conditions are the primary cause. Asylbasheva said young people are concentrating on their careers and choosing to marry later than was previously the case. “The literacy rate of the population is growing; young people are already planning a family, trying to create conditions for a child,” Asylbasheva explained. Asylbasheva also mentioned that difficulties in obtaining a family-sized flat or house are causing some young couples to wait before having children. Baktygul Bozgorpoyeva, director of the Alliance for Family Planning, said state support for young families is sorely lacking and there needs to be government programs to help mothers and fathers raise their children “from adolescence to adulthood.” According to Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee, the average monthly wage in Kyrgyzstan in 2025 is a little more than 40,000 som (about $458), though many people receive considerably less than that amount. Kyrgyzstan’s authorities do offer some financial help. Under the “Balaga Suyunchu” (Happy for a child) scheme established in 2018, the state provides a one-time payment to parents of 4,000 som (about $46) after the birth of each child. In the event of triplets or more babies, the state gives a one-time payment of 50,000 som (about $572) for...

Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Birth Rate Continues to Fall Amid Demographic Concerns

Kazakhstan is witnessing a sustained decline in its birth rate despite government efforts to stimulate demographic growth. In their latest report, analysts at Ranking.kz have explored why more Kazakhstanis are choosing to have fewer or no children, and what factors are driving this downward trend. Sharp Decline in Newborn Numbers According to official data, 77,300 children were born in the first quarter of 2025, a 15.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This continues a multi-year decline: annual births dropped from 446,500 in 2021 to 365,900 in 2024. Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate also reflects this trend. After peaking at 23.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021, the rate has steadily fallen to 18.2 in 2024 and further to 15.4 in early 2025. Regionally, Mangistau and Turkestan remain the most fertile areas, with 21.3 births per 1,000 people, followed by Shymkent (19.7). The lowest rates are in North Kazakhstan (8.5), Kostanay (9.5), and East Kazakhstan (9.6). Changing Attitudes Toward Parenthood A 2024 national survey shows a growing reluctance among citizens to expand their families. Over half (51.3%) of respondents said they already have children and do not plan to have more. Only 13% hoped to have two children, 9.1% three, and 10.5% four or more. Meanwhile, 3.9% said they do not intend to have children at all, a sentiment more common in urban areas (4.5%) than in rural regions (3%). Among urban parents, 52.4% said they would not have more children, compared to 49.5% in rural communities. UN projections suggest Kazakhstan's demographic decline will persist. The fertility rate is expected to dip to 19 in 2025, 17.6 in 2034, and continue falling to 11.4 by 2100, raising concerns about aging and the growing demographic burden. Economic and Medical Challenges According to the platform "Children of Kazakhstan", economic hardship remains a central factor. Rising costs for housing, healthcare, and education have made child-rearing increasingly unaffordable, prompting many to delay or reconsider parenthood altogether. Societal values are also shifting. More young Kazakhs are prioritizing education, careers, and personal development. Women, in particular, are pursuing higher education and professional goals before starting families. Healthcare issues have further exacerbated the trend. The number of women diagnosed with infertility rose to 29,100 in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total for all of 2023 (28,500). This figure has climbed steadily from just 10,000 in 2019. Male infertility is also rising, though the numbers are significantly lower. Reported cases increased from 36 in 2019 to 119 in 2021, before fluctuating slightly to 108 in 2023.

Demographics

Shifting Populations: The Struggle to Sustain Northern and Eastern Kazakhstan

While Kazakhstan's total population continues to increase, certain regions are facing declines driven by migration and demographic shifts. The birth rate within the nation has also reached its lowest ebb in eleven years, further exacerbating these changes. By 2050, Kazakhstan's population is projected to hit 26.3 million, with much of this growth concentrated in major cities. Currently, the population exceeds 20.2 million, with a net increase of 189,376 people in the first nine months of 2024. However, certain regions - North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Abay, and Zhetysu - are seeing decreases due to high migration rates and lower-than-average birth rates. In North Kazakhstan, where mortality rates surpass birth rates, numbers fell by 0.89% in the first six months of 2024 alone, with an overall drop of 23% in the past few years. The regions of North and East Kazakhstan have seen a steady decline in population over the past few decades, a trend influenced by a combination of economic, demographic, and policy-related factors. Historically reliant on industries such as mining, metallurgy, and agriculture, these areas faced severe economic disruption following independence, as state-run enterprises were privatized or shuttered. Many residents found themselves unemployed, with a lack of investment in modernizing industries and an uneven distribution of infrastructure development exacerbating the problem. Without a thriving job market, young professionals and skilled workers migrated in search of better opportunities, creating a brain drain and leaving behind an aging population. Today, insufficient economic diversification continues to make these regions less attractive to younger generations, who are drawn to cities like Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent, which offer employment opportunities, vibrant cultural scenes, and better education and healthcare. Internationally, the proximity of North Kazakhstan to Russia also resulted in substantial cross-border migration, with ethnic Russians and other Slavic minorities leaving Kazakhstan in large numbers, particularly in the years following independence. This trend was partly influenced by policies prioritizing the Kazakh language and identity, which made some minorities feel culturally marginalized or less confident in their long-term prospects in the country. During the Soviet era, regions like North Kazakhstan were agricultural powerhouses, thanks to programs like the Virgin Lands Campaign. However, the ecological degradation and economic mismanagement associated with these projects left lasting scars. Fertile land has become less productive, forcing many farmers to abandon their livelihoods. The decline of ecosystems due to overuse and climate change particularly affects East Kazakhstan, where poorly maintained infrastructure in rural areas has impacted resilience against environmental issues, further encouraging residents to leave. Initiatives it was hoped would encourage relocation from the densely populated south saw limited success. Addressing parliament in February 2024, Senate speaker Maulen Ashimbayev noted that despite programs like Serpin-2050, which provides free education, and Enbek, which offers job placements and rent support, results have been disappointing. Between 2017 and 2021, only 32,000 people relocated, with half unable to work. Population decline in North and East Kazakhstan reflects these regions' reliance on resource-heavy industries, lack of modernization, and uneven infrastructure development, bringing broader challenges...