Drought - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water resources

Kazakhstan Trades Electricity for Water in Bid to Mitigate Summer Drought Risks

Central Asia is entering a new phase in the management of its water-energy nexus, moving from declarations to practical coordination. A trilateral protocol signed in Almaty by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan marked a significant step toward stabilizing the region’s water regime amid escalating climate risks. Brokered under Kazakhstan’s chairmanship, the agreement aims to balance the load on the Toktogul Reservoir, the main regulating structure of the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan typically increases winter water discharges to generate electricity, which reduces irrigation water availability downstream during summer. Under the new deal, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will supply Kyrgyzstan with electricity during winter, in return for Kyrgyzstan's commitment to store water and ensure its release during the 2026 growing season. The Almaty Protocol complements the existing plan for filling the Shardara Reservoir, which aims to accumulate 11 cubic kilometers of water by April 1, 2026. Achieving this target hinges on Toktogul’s operations. Without external support, Kyrgyzstan’s energy infrastructure would struggle to meet the requirement. Supplemental electricity from Astana and Tashkent thus forms the economic backbone of this arrangement. Longstanding disparities in regional water and energy needs remain a source of instability. Kyrgyzstan requires water in winter for hydropower, while Kazakhstan, especially its Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, relies on it in summer for irrigation. Recent water shortages have pushed the countries toward more pragmatic coordination. Uzbekistan has committed to managing the technical conditions for transit and balancing inter-system flows. Despite facing its own energy shortfall and aging infrastructure, Kazakhstan is participating in regional stabilization to avert socio-economic risks in its southern provinces. External factors are adding urgency to regional cooperation. Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal is expected to reduce the Amu Darya’s water balance by 20-25%. Although Uzbekistan is most directly affected, the resulting pressure on water systems could also impact the Syr Darya, on which southern Kazakhstan heavily depends. Internally, Kazakhstan faces persistent challenges. Water loss during transport reaches up to 40-50% due to outdated canal infrastructure. Rice cultivation continues in the water-intensive Kyzylorda region, while water-saving technologies are used on only about 30% of irrigated land. These new agreements suggest that Central Asian countries can rapidly implement collective mechanisms in response to shared threats. In effect, elements of a regional Water and Energy Consortium are already operating in a de facto, ad hoc manner. Water, energy, and food security are increasingly seen as interconnected resources requiring coordinated governance. For Kazakhstan, the priority now is to institutionalize these provisional agreements. If the “electricity-for-water” model can be formalized into a durable framework, it could stand as one of the most significant accomplishments of the country’s regional diplomacy.

Water crisis

Two Major Reservoirs in Turkmenistan Dry Up Amid Intensifying Drought

Turkmenistan’s Balkan region is facing a deepening drought, with two strategically important reservoirs, Mammetköl and Delili, completely drying up by mid-2025. Both reservoirs, fed by the Etrek (Atrek) River, have vanished from satellite imagery, underscoring the severity of the region’s water crisis. According to meteorological reports, the reservoirs were not replenished during the winter months and rapidly lost their remaining water due to evaporation and filtration. The winter of 2024-2025 was exceptionally dry, and the spring brought no relief. With virtually no inflow from the now-dry Etrek River, the reservoirs were left to evaporate. Mammetköl, built in 1964, had a total volume of 20.5 million cubic meters and a usable capacity of 17.9 million cubic meters. Delili, commissioned in 1970, had a capacity of 5.32 million cubic meters. Both were vital to irrigating farmland and sustaining livestock pastures in the Balkan region. This is not the first time Mammetköl has dried up. During the prolonged drought of 2020-2023, the reservoir emptied in October 2021 and remained largely dry for nearly two years, with only brief periods of partial refilling. A rare flood event in August 2023, triggered by heavy rains in the Atrek’s upper reaches, temporarily restored water levels, but the relief was short-lived. Data from the Etrek weather station show that from January to November 2025, normal precipitation levels were recorded only in February and March. The situation rapidly deteriorated not just in the Etrek basin but across other parts of Turkmenistan as well. Reservoirs and rivers disconnected from the Amu Darya began to show signs of critical depletion in early 2025. The Murghab and Tedzhen rivers also reached dangerously low levels. By mid-year, many artificial reservoirs fed by the Atrek had dried out entirely. In autumn, the drought expanded into the Amu Darya basin, Turkmenistan’s largest and most vital waterway, further exacerbating the national water crisis.

Drought

New Drought Monitoring System Could Save Tajikistan Millions

Tajikistan stands to save between $4 million and $6 million annually by adopting a satellite-based drought monitoring system designed to reduce crop losses and improve water management. Regional Project Launch On August 20, a major regional initiative to monitor droughts in Central Asia was launched in Tashkent. The project, spearheaded by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), will employ Earth Remote Sensing (ERS) technologies. The budget for the first phase is $300,000. The system will initially be piloted in Uzbekistan for two years, with implementation in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan expected by 2027. According to project analysts, Tajikistan’s annual savings will come from reduced agricultural losses, more efficient water use, and timely responses to drought conditions. Agriculture at High Risk Climate change poses a significant threat to Tajikistan. Over the past three decades, average temperatures in Central Asia have risen by 1.2°C, well above the global average of 0.85°C. Meanwhile, precipitation has decreased by 15-20%, increasing the frequency and severity of droughts. Agriculture accounts for 22% of Tajikistan’s GDP, and approximately 1.5 million people -- 15% of the population -- live in drought-prone areas. The country’s mountainous landscape and limited water resources further magnify the impact of even minor climate shifts. Current meteorological stations lack the capacity to monitor local variations. Weather conditions in mountainous areas can differ dramatically over short distances, rendering traditional methods insufficient. The new system will rely on satellite data from Europe’s Sentinel-2 and the U.S.’s Landsat-8. These satellites measure the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil moisture, and surface temperature. Forecasts are updated every 5-10 days and have an accuracy rate of 80-85%. This will enable farmers to better plan irrigation schedules, select suitable crops, and conserve water resources. Implementation Timeline The initiative builds on a 2024 pilot project that developed monitoring methodologies and collected baseline data. In 2025, trials began in Uzbekistan (in Karakalpakstan and the Fergana Valley). Nationwide implementation in Uzbekistan is scheduled for 2026, followed by rollout in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in 2027. As part of the program, 150 specialists will be trained, and satellite data will be integrated into national meteorological systems. Tajikistan is expected to cut annual crop losses by 10-15%, boosting food security and delivering $4-6 million in economic benefits. The project also aims to mitigate social pressures in rural areas. In Uzbekistan, similar climate stresses displaced an estimated 120,000 people between 2018 and 2023 due to water shortages. By reducing drought-induced income loss, the system could help slow climate-related migration in Tajikistan as well. The initiative draws on successful international models. Australia’s Drought Watch program has cut agricultural losses by 12%, while India’s INSAT-3D satellite has improved forecast accuracy to 78%. Both approaches will be adapted for Central Asian conditions. Challenges Ahead Despite the promise, Tajikistan faces several hurdles. Internet access reaches only 55% of rural communities, there is a shortage of trained remote sensing specialists, and the system’s annual maintenance is estimated at $50,000. To address these challenges, ESCAP will provide...

Ecology

Kazakhstan Warns of Potential Drought Impact on Western and Southern Harvests

Southern and western regions of Kazakhstan are expected to face a shortage of rainfall this summer during the critical ripening period for vegetables and fruits. Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, has urged local authorities and the Ministry of Agriculture to prepare measures for irrigating croplands. Speaking at a government meeting, Nurzhigitov cited forecasts from Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan’s national meteorological service, supported by data from the World Meteorological Organization and the North Eurasian Climate Center. According to the forecasts, a short-term drought is expected in May in the southern part of the Kostanay region, a major grain-producing area in northern Kazakhstan. However, this will likely be alleviated by subsequent summer rains. In contrast, the May drought in other regions is expected to persist. Areas likely to be affected include the southwestern half of West Kazakhstan and Mangistau regions, the northwestern Kyzylorda region, northern parts of the Almaty and Zhambyl regions, southern Karaganda, and various parts of the Aktobe, Atyrau, Abai, and Turkestan regions. Nurzhigitov emphasized that the western and southern regions, located in the Zhayik and Syr Darya river basins, are particularly at risk. He warned that prolonged dry conditions could significantly disrupt the agricultural sector. “It is necessary to develop a set of operational measures aimed at minimizing the consequences of a possible moisture deficit,” he said, highlighting especially severe concerns about water shortages in the Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions. According to Nurzhigitov, water reservoirs in the affected basin are currently at only 75% of average capacity. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan aims to boost its grain exports this year, with an eye on expanding deliveries to Africa.