Scientists in Kyrgyzstan Predicting More Earthquakes

Speaking to members of Parliament, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Akylbek Zhaparov, said that 13,000 seismic shocks have been recorded in Kyrgyzstan just this year. According to Zhaparov, specialists are currently studying dangerous zones. "Only on April 2, 828 earthquakes were registered worldwide within 24 hours, and 6,892 in seven days... Over the past 150 years, more than a dozen earthquakes with a magnitude above seven have occurred on the territory of the republic," Zhaparov said. The prime minister noted that scientists from the Kyrgyz National Academy of Sciences are now studying dangerous zones where destruction can be expected. In addition, he instructed members of parliament to strengthen regulatory control over the seismic resistance of buildings, as well as the quality of facilities under construction. Following a strong earthquake on the border of Kyrgyzstan and China in late February this year (seven points in its epicenter), the authorities of Kyrgyzstan created an interdepartmental commission to check buildings that are at risk of being destroyed, but that commission didn't record serious damage at that time. Additionally, special services raided construction sites. Despite corruption scandals in the industry - several directors of large construction companies are under investigation - the special services did not identify any major violations. Meanwhile, according to the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan, in 2024 the republic is indeed among the top five countries in terms of earthquakes registered. In 2023, the Institute of Seismology of Kyrgyzstan recorded twice as many tremors as a year earlier. At the same time, most of these tremors were not felt by people, they were recorded only by special devices. However, the public shouldn't worry too much about it, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, the country's chief seismologist said, adding that any seismic activity has its own periodicity. "We are now living in the fourth period of seismic activity, which began in 2008 and will end according to our forecasts in 2026... The strength of earthquakes in this active period was not supposed to exceed 5-6 points. Until today, these predictions have been realized. The only event that exceeded our expectations was the Chinese earthquake on February 23, 2024. Well, it happens! Don't be afraid, people!" Abdrakhmatov, head of the laboratory at the Institute of Seismology of Kyrgyzstan, wrote on his Facebook page. As a mountainous country, Kyrgyzstan is in an earthquake-prone zone, and in recent months the country's residents have felt more tremors than usual. The Institute of Seismology believes there is nothing to fear, because the tremors are not strong, but the panic that these tremors can provoke is much more dangerous. That's why, almost every time there is another tremor in Kyrgyzstan, the head of the Institute of Seismology writes a note on his social media, attempting to reassure the population. "Probably many people felt the small earthquake that occurred a few minutes ago. The epicenter was in the mountains, under the Kyrgyz ridge, about 25-30 kilometers south of Bishkek. In Bishkek it was 2-3 points. Nothing...

Earthquakes Rekindle Fears Over Lake Sarez

On the evening of January 30th, an earthquake struck in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Province on the border between Tajikistan and Xinjiang. Though this instance only had a magnitude of 4.4, it comes in the wake of the magnitude 7 quake which pounded the China-Kyrgyzstan border on January 23rd, shaking buildings in Almaty. As recently as February 2023, a series of earthquakes, the largest measuring 6.8, hit forty miles west of Murgab on the border between Tajikistan and China’s Xinjiang province. This was the eighteenth such instance measuring 6.5 or more over the course of the last century, and serves to focus attention on extremely remote Lake Sarez in Tajikistan. [/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="14212" img_size="full" el_class="scond-image" parallax_scroll="no" woodmart_inline="no"][vc_column_text woodmart_inline="no" text_larger="no"]Plan of Lake Sarez and the Usoi Dam, 1913 At five-hundred-meters deep and 47 miles long, mountainous Lake Sarez contains more than 3.85 cubic miles of water. It was formed in 1911, when a 2.2 billion cubic meter landslide caused by an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.5-7.0 blocked the Bartang River’s path. The sound of the quake was recorded over 2,350 miles away at the Pulkovo seismic station near St. Petersburg. Thus, the tallest natural dam in the world, the three-mile long, 567-meter high Usoi Dam was formed, whilst the villages of Usoi and Sarez were buried beneath the landslide and the lake, respectively, killing 302 people. According to the two survivors, the dust clouds cleared only after some days to reveal a mountain where the village of Usoi used to stand. The lake has been a potential disaster waiting to happen ever since. In 1968, a landslide caused two-meter-tall waves to rock the lake, and with glacial melting causing water levels to rise by eight inches a year, pressure on the natural dam is building. As early as the 1970s, plans were hatched to harness the lake as a hydroelectric power station, but technical issues and its far-flung location saw the scheme come to nothing. In 2018, a deal was signed with Hong Kong-based Heaven Springs Harvest Group to sell the lake’s “blue gold” as drinking water, but inaccessibility again largely scuppered the project.[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image="13414" img_size="full" el_class="scond-image" parallax_scroll="no" woodmart_inline="no"][vc_column_text woodmart_inline="no" text_larger="no"]Murgab Bazaar, Gorno-Badakhshan - Photo: Times of Central Asia Back in 1997, a gathering of experts in Dushanbe concluded that the Usoi Dam was unstable. Their findings suggested that a powerful earthquake could precipitate a collapse of the dam. However, a study conducted by the World Bank in 2004 contradicted these conclusions, arguing that the dam was, in fact, stable. Nevertheless, the main threat identified was not the dam's general stability but a specific geological feature - a partially detached mass of rock, approximately 0.72 cubic miles in size. There are concerns that this precarious massive rock formation could detach and plunge into the lake. This event could trigger a catastrophic flood, and, as such, while the dam itself may be stable, the potential for disaster still looms large. In this earthquake-prone environment, were the dam to be breached a tidal...