Kazakhstan’s Population Is Aging Rapidly as Demographic Pressures Mount

Kazakhstan’s population is aging rapidly, with the number of elderly citizens growing significantly faster than the child population as birth rates continue to decline. According to a study by analysts at Energyprom.kz, the country’s aging index has been steadily rising. In 2021, Kazakhstan had 26.7 elderly people for every 100 children under the age of 15. By 2025, that figure had increased to 32.9. The data suggests Kazakhstan is gradually entering a demographic phase in which the proportion of elderly citizens is growing much faster than the younger population. The trend is particularly pronounced in urban areas, where the aging index rose from 28.8 to 34.9 over four years. Rural areas remain relatively younger, though the index there also increased from 23.9 to 29.6. Researchers say the most difficult demographic situation is emerging in the country’s northern and eastern regions. The highest aging index was recorded in the North Kazakhstan Region at 84.1, followed by the East Kazakhstan Region at 80.7 and the Kostanay Region at 71.3. In practical terms, the number of elderly residents in these areas is approaching the number of children. High aging rates were also recorded in the Pavlodar, Karaganda, and Akmola regions. By contrast, Kazakhstan’s youngest demographic profiles remain concentrated in the southern and oil-producing regions. The lowest aging indexes were recorded in the Mangystau Region at 16.2, the Turkestan Region at 17.2, and the city of Shymkent at 17. Nevertheless, even these regions are showing gradual aging trends. Analysts say the primary driver of the shift is the changing balance between declining birth rates and the growing elderly population. Although Kazakhstan’s total population continues to increase, its demographic structure is becoming noticeably older. The number of children under the age of 14, after years of growth, has begun to decline. At the beginning of 2024 and 2025, the figure stood at around 5.9 million, but by early 2026 it had fallen to 5.8 million. At the same time, the number of Kazakhstanis aged over 65 continues to rise rapidly. Over the past decade, the elderly population increased from 1.2 million to 2 million people, an increase of nearly 60%. Additional pressure comes from falling birth rates. Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate dropped to 16.4 births per 1,000 people in 2025, compared to 23.5 in 2021, a decline of almost one-third in just a few years. The lowest birth rates are being recorded in the North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and East Kazakhstan regions. However, even traditionally younger regions such as Turkestan and Mangystau are seeing fertility rates gradually decline. Experts warn that overall population growth is no longer compensating for changes in the country’s age structure. While the population is still increasing in absolute terms, the share of elderly citizens is rising much more rapidly. According to analysts, the trend is likely to place increasing pressure on Kazakhstan’s healthcare system, labor market, pension system, and social welfare infrastructure in the coming years.