Aging Population - The Times Of Central Asia

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Population

Uzbekistan Population Growth: 20 Years To Use a Window of Opportunity

Uzbekistan has a limited window of opportunity to turn its rapidly growing young population into a driver of long-term economic growth, according to a new study on demographic trends and human capital development in the country. The report, produced as part of a broader regional study on Central Asia, analyzes the prospects of young people up to the age of 24, as well as the impact that a range of investments in their well-being could have on national development through 2050. Approximately 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is under the age of 30. As this generation enters the workforce, the country is expected to gain the largest labor force in its history. Researchers argue that this creates the conditions for a “demographic dividend,” a period during which a high proportion of working-age citizens can accelerate economic growth and boost productivity. However, the report warns that such an outcome is far from guaranteed. Uzbekistan’s demographic opening is also a labor-market test. UNDP has estimated that around 700,000 young people enter the country’s job market each year, while warning that many graduates still lack practical, market-relevant skills. That makes education, vocational training, and job creation central to whether population growth becomes an economic advantage or a source of pressure. “Uzbekistan risks missing the opportunity for accelerated economic growth due to underdeveloped human capital,” the authors state. One indicator of the challenge is Uzbekistan’s score of 0.6 in the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. This suggests that children born in the country today are likely to realize only 60% of their potential future productivity compared with what would be possible with full access to quality education and good health outcomes. The UN has framed the issue in similar terms, saying targeted investments in early childhood, including health, nutrition, early learning, and social protection, could help close Uzbekistan’s human-capital gap and generate additional economic returns by 2050. Uzbekistan’s population is projected to grow from approximately 38 million people in 2025 to more than 40 million by 2030 and reach around 52 million by 2050. In 2024, the country was home to 11.3 million children under the age of 15, 23.9 million working-age adults, and 2.2 million people aged 65 and older. By 2050, the working-age population is expected to exceed 33 million, while the number of elderly citizens is projected to triple to more than 6 million. Researchers note that Uzbekistan is currently in what demographers describe as the “early-dividend” phase, during which fertility rates gradually decline while the share of working-age citizens continues to rise. The average number of children per woman has fallen from more than four in the early 1990s to approximately 3.45 in 2025 and is expected to decline further to 2.55 by mid-century. The report’s authors argue that the next two decades will be critical for Uzbekistan’s future economic trajectory. They recommend increased investment in education, healthcare, nutrition, child protection, social protection, water supply, sanitation infrastructure, and labor market development. According to the study, investments in human capital during the...

Aging Population

Kazakhstan’s Population Is Aging Rapidly as Demographic Pressures Mount

Kazakhstan’s population is aging rapidly, with the number of elderly citizens growing significantly faster than the child population as birth rates continue to decline. According to a study by analysts at Energyprom.kz, the country’s aging index has been steadily rising. In 2021, Kazakhstan had 26.7 elderly people for every 100 children under the age of 15. By 2025, that figure had increased to 32.9. The data suggests Kazakhstan is gradually entering a demographic phase in which the proportion of elderly citizens is growing much faster than the younger population. The trend is particularly pronounced in urban areas, where the aging index rose from 28.8 to 34.9 over four years. Rural areas remain relatively younger, though the index there also increased from 23.9 to 29.6. Researchers say the most difficult demographic situation is emerging in the country’s northern and eastern regions. The highest aging index was recorded in the North Kazakhstan Region at 84.1, followed by the East Kazakhstan Region at 80.7 and the Kostanay Region at 71.3. In practical terms, the number of elderly residents in these areas is approaching the number of children. High aging rates were also recorded in the Pavlodar, Karaganda, and Akmola regions. By contrast, Kazakhstan’s youngest demographic profiles remain concentrated in the southern and oil-producing regions. The lowest aging indexes were recorded in the Mangystau Region at 16.2, the Turkestan Region at 17.2, and the city of Shymkent at 17. Nevertheless, even these regions are showing gradual aging trends. Analysts say the primary driver of the shift is the changing balance between declining birth rates and the growing elderly population. Although Kazakhstan’s total population continues to increase, its demographic structure is becoming noticeably older. The number of children under the age of 14, after years of growth, has begun to decline. At the beginning of 2024 and 2025, the figure stood at around 5.9 million, but by early 2026 it had fallen to 5.8 million. At the same time, the number of Kazakhstanis aged over 65 continues to rise rapidly. Over the past decade, the elderly population increased from 1.2 million to 2 million people, an increase of nearly 60%. Additional pressure comes from falling birth rates. Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate dropped to 16.4 births per 1,000 people in 2025, compared to 23.5 in 2021, a decline of almost one-third in just a few years. The lowest birth rates are being recorded in the North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and East Kazakhstan regions. However, even traditionally younger regions such as Turkestan and Mangystau are seeing fertility rates gradually decline. Experts warn that overall population growth is no longer compensating for changes in the country’s age structure. While the population is still increasing in absolute terms, the share of elderly citizens is rising much more rapidly. According to analysts, the trend is likely to place increasing pressure on Kazakhstan’s healthcare system, labor market, pension system, and social welfare infrastructure in the coming years.

life expectancy

Life Expectancy in Kazakhstan Reaches Record High

Life expectancy in Kazakhstan has reached 75.97 years, setting a record for the entire period of independence, according to the Ministry of Health. For comparison, in 1991 the figure stood at 67.6 years; in 2001 it fell to 65.6 years; in 2011 it rose to 68.98 years; and in 2021 it reached 70.23 years. Overall, life expectancy has increased by more than eight years over the past three decades. The ministry attributes this growth largely to measures aimed at combating noncommunicable diseases. In 2025, Kazakhstan ranked among the top ten countries in the European Region of the World Health Organization for reducing mortality from such diseases by 25%. According to the ministry, a systematic approach to prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment of chronic conditions has underpinned this positive trend. The government is also implementing a healthcare development strategy through 2029, which aims to raise life expectancy to 77 years. The strategy includes measures to strengthen primary healthcare, introduce digital solutions, develop human resources, and advance medical science. Priorities include reducing premature mortality from cardiovascular and oncological diseases, diabetes, and chronic respiratory conditions. The plan was developed with the participation of international organizations, including UNICEF and United Nations Population Fund. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan became the first country in the region to meet its targets for reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases. At the same time, rising life expectancy is accompanied by demographic shifts. According to Kazakhstan’s Unified Accumulative Pension Fund, by 2050 approximately 19% of the population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age.

Demographics

Shifting Populations: The Struggle to Sustain Northern and Eastern Kazakhstan

While Kazakhstan's total population continues to increase, certain regions are facing declines driven by migration and demographic shifts. The birth rate within the nation has also reached its lowest ebb in eleven years, further exacerbating these changes. By 2050, Kazakhstan's population is projected to hit 26.3 million, with much of this growth concentrated in major cities. Currently, the population exceeds 20.2 million, with a net increase of 189,376 people in the first nine months of 2024. However, certain regions - North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Abay, and Zhetysu - are seeing decreases due to high migration rates and lower-than-average birth rates. In North Kazakhstan, where mortality rates surpass birth rates, numbers fell by 0.89% in the first six months of 2024 alone, with an overall drop of 23% in the past few years. The regions of North and East Kazakhstan have seen a steady decline in population over the past few decades, a trend influenced by a combination of economic, demographic, and policy-related factors. Historically reliant on industries such as mining, metallurgy, and agriculture, these areas faced severe economic disruption following independence, as state-run enterprises were privatized or shuttered. Many residents found themselves unemployed, with a lack of investment in modernizing industries and an uneven distribution of infrastructure development exacerbating the problem. Without a thriving job market, young professionals and skilled workers migrated in search of better opportunities, creating a brain drain and leaving behind an aging population. Today, insufficient economic diversification continues to make these regions less attractive to younger generations, who are drawn to cities like Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent, which offer employment opportunities, vibrant cultural scenes, and better education and healthcare. Internationally, the proximity of North Kazakhstan to Russia also resulted in substantial cross-border migration, with ethnic Russians and other Slavic minorities leaving Kazakhstan in large numbers, particularly in the years following independence. This trend was partly influenced by policies prioritizing the Kazakh language and identity, which made some minorities feel culturally marginalized or less confident in their long-term prospects in the country. During the Soviet era, regions like North Kazakhstan were agricultural powerhouses, thanks to programs like the Virgin Lands Campaign. However, the ecological degradation and economic mismanagement associated with these projects left lasting scars. Fertile land has become less productive, forcing many farmers to abandon their livelihoods. The decline of ecosystems due to overuse and climate change particularly affects East Kazakhstan, where poorly maintained infrastructure in rural areas has impacted resilience against environmental issues, further encouraging residents to leave. Initiatives it was hoped would encourage relocation from the densely populated south saw limited success. Addressing parliament in February 2024, Senate speaker Maulen Ashimbayev noted that despite programs like Serpin-2050, which provides free education, and Enbek, which offers job placements and rent support, results have been disappointing. Between 2017 and 2021, only 32,000 people relocated, with half unable to work. Population decline in North and East Kazakhstan reflects these regions' reliance on resource-heavy industries, lack of modernization, and uneven infrastructure development, bringing broader challenges...

Aging Population

By 2050, Nearly One-Fifth of Kazakhstan’s Population Will Be Over 60

Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a significant demographic transition. A recent report by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), the agency overseeing the country’s pension system, projects that by 2050, 19% of Kazakhstan’s population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age. The study, published on the UAPF website, reveals that as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's population had surpassed 20.3 million. Of this total, 42.8% — approximately 8.7 million people — were under the age of 25. Another 48% (around 9.7 million) were between 25 and 65, while 9.2%, or about 1.9 million people, were over 65 and currently classified as pensioners. Overall, individuals aged 60 and older now make up 13.9% of the total population. According to UAPF forecasts, the national population is expected to grow to 26.3 million by the end of 2050. However, this growth will be accompanied by an aging trend. “This means that by 2050, on average, one in five Kazakhs will be aged 60 or older,” the report notes. This shift mirrors a broader global pattern of aging populations and declining birth rates. Life expectancy in Kazakhstan, which had declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded significantly. It rose from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased from 3.32 children per woman in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 2.42 by 2050. “With the gradual decline in birth rates and increased life expectancy, fewer people are entering the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working-age population continues to grow,” UAPF analysts stated. The report also predicts a neutral migration balance by 2050, meaning the number of people emigrating will roughly equal those immigrating for permanent residence. This marks a shift from earlier decades of net inward migration. Since 1991, over 1.15 million ethnic Kazakhs born abroad have moved to Kazakhstan permanently, according to data previously reported by The Times of Central Asia. As Kazakhstan confronts these demographic realities, policymakers will need to consider long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of its pension system and the vitality of its labor force.