Electricity Demand - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 6

Energy and infrastructure

Opinion: Kazakhstan Energy Expansion May Not Guarantee a Lasting Surplus

Kazakhstan plans to commission 13.3 GW of power capacity by the end of 2029, including 12.56 GW of entirely new generation, in a build-out the government says will move the country from deficit to sustained surplus. But new industrial projects and large data centers could absorb part of that margin almost as soon as it appears. According to Energy Ministry projections, Kazakhstan expects to eliminate its electricity deficit by the end of the first quarter of 2027 and move to a sustained surplus by 2029. The projected electricity balance for 2029 calls for generation of 162.1 billion kWh against consumption of 144.5 billion kWh, leaving a surplus of 17.6 billion kWh. However, it is difficult to predict exactly how much electricity the country will need three years from now. Therefore the forecast "surplus" will not necessarily become a reserve available for future industrial projects. Energy Hungry Data Centers Kazakhstan is pursuing a swathe of new energy-intensive industrial projects, while data centers are emerging as another major source of electricity demand. The Data Center Valley project is being developed in Ekibastuz, where the government says 300 MW of power capacity has already been secured, with plans to expand to 1 GW. It cites competitive electricity costs and the ability to scale up as advantages of the location. At full scale, such a cluster would itself become a major electricity consumer. If it drew 1 GW continuously, it would consume about 8.76 billion kWh a year – roughly half the projected national surplus for 2029. Kazakhstan’s digital ambitions already extend beyond a single data center. In June, the government announced $10 billion in agreements with U.S.-based Firebird and NVIDIA to build a large AI computing center using 100,000 advanced computer chips. The project will form part of the Data Center Valley initiative. By the end of 2029, Kazakhstan plans to commission 13.3 GW of capacity, of which 12.56 GW will come from entirely new generating facilities and 0.74 GW will replace existing capacity. According to the Energy Ministry, 7.4 GW of the total will be baseload generation and another 5.9 GW will come from renewable energy sources. The full 13.3 GW cannot be treated as spare power for new factories and data centers. Some will be needed to meet rising demand and make the electricity system more reliable. Solar and wind power also cannot produce at full capacity all the time. This is particularly important during periods of peak demand, when the power system must cope simultaneously with high consumption and possible maintenance or outages at generating facilities. A projected annual surplus measured in billions of kilowatt-hours and the amount of capacity available during a particular peak hour are therefore different measures. Upkeep of Current Power Sources The condition of existing generation remains a separate problem. Much of Kazakhstan’s thermal generation is aging and requires modernization. The Energy Ministry reported that 411 billion tenge was allocated to the 2025 repair campaign, during which 10 power units, 63 boilers, and 39 turbines were repaired. It said...

Nuclear Energy

Uzbekistan Plans Second Nuclear Power Plant Before First Is Ready

Uzbekistan will soon begin preparations for the construction of a second nuclear power plant (NPP), President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced during an August 17 visit to Khorezm region. The announcement came a little more than two months after construction officially began on the country’s first NPP. The authorities have not yet disclosed where the new plant will be located or how much capacity it will have. They have also not named a technology partner. Discussing energy in connection with new industrial projects, Mirziyoyev said investors need an acceptable electricity price and a guarantee of uninterrupted supply. Uzbekistan is building its first NPP with the participation of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom. On June 4, first concrete was poured for the foundation of the first unit of the integrated NPP in Farish district, Jizzakh region, officially marking the start of construction. Mirziyoyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the project by video link. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi also participated in the ceremony. The project itself has changed considerably over the past two years. In 2024, Uzbekistan and Russia agreed to build a small nuclear power plant with six RITM-200N reactors, each with a capacity of 55 MW. Tashkent later decided to combine small modular and large-scale nuclear generation at a single site. Under the current configuration, the Jizzakh project will have two large VVER-1000 units and two small RITM-200N units. The complex will have a total capacity of 2.11 GW and is expected to generate about 15.4 billion kWh of electricity annually. The first small reactor is expected to come online in 2029. The first large unit could begin operating in 2033, with the entire complex expected to be commissioned by 2035. Plans for a second NPP come as electricity demand is rising rapidly. Uzbekistan’s 2020–2030 electricity plan aimed to raise annual generation from 63.6 billion kWh to 120.8 billion kWh by 2030. A more recent government forecast puts electricity consumption at 121 billion kWh by 2035. Some of the growing demand is expected to be met by solar and wind power. Nuclear energy is intended to provide baseload generation, including for industry. Mirziyoyev specifically linked preparations for the second plant to investors’ need for a stable electricity supply. Uzbekistan is therefore expanding its nuclear program before its first reactor has entered operation. The country is continuing to develop the infrastructure and expertise needed for the new industry. Following a June review, the IAEA said Uzbekistan had made significant progress but needed to complete work on its nuclear regulatory body and finalize feasibility studies. So far, Mirziyoyev has said only that preparations for the second NPP will begin. Its cost, timetable, capacity, and technology have not been announced, nor has a potential contractor been named. The first NPP involves long-term cooperation with Russia’s nuclear industry. Rosatom is participating in the project, which will use its reactor technology. Mirziyoyev said in June that Uzbekistan planned further nuclear power projects with Russia, but whether the same model will be used for the second plant or Tashkent will consider...

Electricity Demand

Kyrgyzstan Electricity Imports to Rise Again in 2026

Kyrgyzstan will again have to import a significant share of its electricity in 2026. With consumption expected to reach 19.6 billion kWh, domestic power plants are projected to generate 15.5 billion kWh. The difference, around 4.1 billion kWh, will have to be covered by imports. For a country where most electricity is generated by hydropower plants along the Naryn River, many of them built during the Soviet period, the current deficit is the result of a long-running gap between rising demand and the construction of new large-scale generating capacity. The new estimates from the Energy Ministry were presented on August 10 during preparations for the heating season. A year earlier, Kyrgyzstan imported about 3.9 billion kWh, meaning that its dependence on external supplies is expected to increase slightly this year. The reasons go far beyond the current period of low water levels. Kyrgyzstan’s power system in its present form developed as part of the integrated Soviet Central Asian network. The republic controlled the upper reaches of the Naryn River, while reservoirs and hydropower plants built along it served two purposes: generating electricity and regulating water flows for agriculture downstream, primarily in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The first major plant on the Naryn was the Uch-Kurgan Hydropower Plant, commissioned in the early 1960s. Construction of the much larger Toktogul hydropower complex began in 1962. Toktogul was commissioned in January 1975. It was followed by the Kurpsai, Tash-Kumyr, and Shamaldy-Sai hydropower plants. This cascade became the backbone of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity sector. The Soviet system was not designed to make each republic self-sufficient in energy. Kyrgyzstan stored water during the colder months and released it for downstream irrigation in summer, generating electricity that fed into the regional grid. In return, it received fuel and power from elsewhere in the Soviet system during winter. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, that integrated system fragmented, while the power plants and reservoirs remained. Construction of new large facilities then almost stopped. Work on Kambarata-2 began in 1986 but was suspended after the collapse of the Soviet Union; its first generating unit was not commissioned until 2010. As a result, a substantial share of Kyrgyzstan’s present-day electricity generation still comes from plants built several decades ago. The hydropower plants themselves are gradually being modernised. Following rehabilitation, Toktogul’s capacity increased from the original 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. But upgrading existing generating units does not solve the other problem: electricity consumption is growing faster than new sources of generation are being added. In 2025, the country consumed about 19.1 billion kWh, roughly 860 million kWh more than a year earlier. Imports totaled about 3.9 billion kWh from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. This year, imports are expected to increase to 4.1 billion kWh. The situation also depends on water availability. The Toktogul Reservoir allows part of the Naryn’s flow to be shifted between seasons, so its water level directly affects the generating capacity of the country’s largest hydropower plant. At the August 10 meeting, the authorities said the reservoir...

Power Grid

Central Asia Electricity Demand Surges in Summer Power Reckoning

At 5:22 p.m. on July 20, after days of extreme heat, Uzbekistan's electricity system hit its highest load on record. Air conditioners were running on overdrive across the country as demand reached 14.2 gigawatts. Over the full day, consumers used 301.9 million kWh, almost 11% more than the previous year's summer peak. The pressure was visible elsewhere. In Kyrgyzstan, electricity consumption jumped 18% year-on-year on July 19. Parts of Bishkek and the Chui Region lost power for periods of up to two hours as operators tried to stop overloaded equipment from failing. In Almaty, where temperatures reached 40°C, 35 repair crews were deployed as record demand triggered faults across parts of the city's electricity network. Central Asia has spent years preparing for power shortages during freezing winters. July demonstrated that 40°C-plus summer days can now pose a different version of the same problem. The Demand Problem Governments across Central Asia have largely approached energy shortages from the supply side: more generation, new plants, stronger transmission, and greater investment. The summer peak exposed another weakness, however: demand is rising faster than many networks can comfortably absorb it. The pressure comes from new apartment blocks, shopping centers, construction sites, cooling systems, and the rapid spread of air conditioning. In Tashkent, Almaty, Bishkek, and other expanding cities, hotter summers also intensify the urban heat-island effect as concrete and glass retain heat and increase cooling demand. Much of the region's electricity infrastructure was built for a different pattern of consumption. That makes demand-side management increasingly important alongside new generation. Building another plant increases the amount of electricity available, but does little by itself to control when households and businesses consume it. Efficiency standards, more responsive tariffs, modern metering, and investment in distribution networks will become more important as peak demand rises. Four Systems, Shared Pressure Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are not facing identical problems, but July highlighted a common vulnerability: electricity systems are being asked to meet demand patterns for which they were not originally designed. Kazakhstan is pursuing major long-term additions to generation. In May 2026, it signed a $16.5 billion agreement with Russia's Rosatom for its first nuclear power plant near Lake Balkhash. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first reactor scheduled for commissioning in early 2034. For a coal-heavy system facing rising demand, the baseload argument is clear. But new capacity will take years to arrive. Tariff reform and modernization of existing infrastructure remain politically sensitive, especially if households are asked to pay more before improvements in reliability become visible. Uzbekistan is racing to add capacity, especially solar, in response to a rapidly growing population and dwindling gas reserves. Solar can reduce daytime strain and free gas for other uses, but it does not resolve the evening peak. Cooling demand can remain high after sunset, when solar output falls. Without sufficient storage, flexible backup generation, and stronger transmission and distribution networks, rapid additions of renewable capacity can coexist with local shortages and outages. Uzbekistan's July records underline the...

Extreme Heat

Uzbekistan Braces for Extreme Heat as Temperatures Could Reach 46°C

Uzbekistan is preparing for extreme heat after the national weather agency warned that temperatures across much of the country could reach dangerous levels this week. Authorities have stepped up emergency measures and urged residents to take precautions. According to Uzhydromet, very hot air masses moving north from the south are expected to affect the country between July 13 and July 17. During the hottest days, daytime temperatures are forecast to reach 41-43°C across most regions, while northern, southern, and desert areas could see temperatures as high as 44-46°C. The weather agency also warned that wind speeds could increase to 13-18 meters per second in some areas, with possible dust storms. The expected heatwave is likely to put additional pressure on Uzbekistan’s electricity network. Citing the regional power distribution company Hududiy Elektr Tarmoqlari, or Regional Electric Networks, local news outlet Daryo reported that electricity demand typically rises during periods of extreme heat as households and businesses rely more heavily on cooling systems. Higher temperatures can also reduce the efficiency of transmission lines and transformers, increasing the risk of technical failures. The company said it has introduced a range of measures to maintain a stable electricity supply and respond quickly to any emergencies. More than 6,500 employees have been assigned to 1,203 emergency response teams operating around the clock across the country. Each team has been equipped with specialized vehicles and equipment, while additional repair materials and spare parts have been stockpiled to deal with possible breakdowns during the summer season. Hududiy Elektr Tarmoqlari said ensuring uninterrupted electricity supplies during peak demand remains one of its top priorities. The company appealed to consumers to use electricity responsibly in order to reduce unnecessary strain on the power system. Emergency authorities have also stepped up public safety efforts. Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations have been seen on the streets of Tashkent reminding residents to avoid going outside during the hottest part of the day unless absolutely necessary. The ministry issued a separate warning about the dangers of leaving vehicles in direct sunlight. It said temperatures inside a parked car can rise to between 50°C and 70°C within 50 to 60 minutes, creating life-threatening conditions. “Just one minute of carelessness can lead to irreversible consequences,” the ministry warned. Officials urged drivers never to leave children or other passengers inside parked vehicles, even for a short time, and encouraged the public to take extra precautions to protect themselves, their families, and those around them during the period of extreme heat. The latest forecasts suggest that Uzbekistan will remain under the influence of the hot air mass for several days, with authorities continuing to monitor weather conditions and the country’s energy infrastructure as temperatures approach some of the highest levels recorded this summer.

Renewable energy

Central Asia’s Renewable Energy Boom Faces Growing Grid Challenges

Central Asia is rapidly expanding its renewable energy sector, with solar power emerging as one of the key drivers of the region’s energy transition. However, a new report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) warns that accelerated deployment of renewable energy, without matching investment in grid infrastructure, reserve capacity, storage systems, and market reforms, could increase systemic risks and raise overall electricity costs. The warning comes as electricity demand across Central Asia continues to grow steadily. The region’s population now exceeds 80 million, and power consumption is rising by 3% to 6% annually. According to the EDB, electricity demand could increase by nearly 40% by 2030, reaching 370 billion kilowatt-hours annually, up from approximately 270 billion kilowatt-hours today. Governments across the region have announced ambitious renewable energy targets for the coming decade. Uzbekistan plans to install more than 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, including solar and wind generation. Kazakhstan aims to commission 8.4 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2035, while Kyrgyzstan plans to add 3.65 gigawatts of solar capacity and 400 megawatts of wind power over the same period. Tajikistan is targeting 2 gigawatts of solar and wind generation by 2030, while Turkmenistan has announced plans for 300 megawatts of solar power capacity. Yet the region’s transition toward cleaner energy sources presents a growing challenge: electricity demand is increasing faster than power systems are adapting to accommodate large volumes of variable renewable generation. Solar energy production peaks during daylight hours, creating fluctuations that conventional power systems must manage. In the morning, before solar panels begin generating at full capacity, electricity demand is largely met by hydropower plants and thermal generation fueled by coal or natural gas. As solar output rises during the day, conventional plants must reduce generation or temporarily shut down. After sunset, when electricity consumption remains high but solar production falls to zero, conventional generators must rapidly increase output to stabilize the system. These abrupt shifts create operational challenges and increase costs for grid operators. According to the EDB’s report, Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition, the main obstacles to integrating renewable energy are technical and institutional, not simply financial. If sudden drops in solar or wind generation caused by weather changes are not immediately offset, power systems risk instability and, in extreme cases, blackouts. As renewable capacity expands, grids require more flexible generation, larger reserve margins, energy storage systems, and more sophisticated operational management tools. The report notes that renewable generation is being introduced faster than supporting infrastructure can be developed. In many countries, transmission networks were not designed to accommodate a high share of variable energy sources. Weather forecasting systems also remain insufficiently accurate to support reliable real-time balancing of renewable output. Market reforms have lagged as well. Capacity markets, reserve markets, and tariff systems in several Central Asian countries have yet to evolve in ways that encourage investment in flexible backup generation and storage technologies. As a result, the report argues, the real system-wide cost of renewable energy may...