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Energy Security

Central Asia Electricity Demand Expected to Rise 27% by 2030, EDB Says

Electricity demand across Central Asia is expected to increase by 27% by 2030, putting additional pressure on the region’s power grids, according to the Eurasian Development Bank. Arman Akhunbayev, head of the bank’s Center for Sectoral Analysis, announced the projection during an October 29 presentation of its report, Energy Without Borders: The Architecture of Power Connectivity in Central Asia. “To prevent energy shortages from becoming an obstacle to economic growth, generation capacity and power grids must be prepared now for new factories and expanding cities,” Akhunbayev said. The bank stressed that building additional power plants alone would not be enough. With countries in the region planning to add more than 35 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity by 2035, it called for grid upgrades and investment in energy storage and backup generating capacity. The report noted that during peak demand on December 10, 2024, around 6.6 gigawatts of generating capacity in Central Asia’s interconnected power system was unavailable or restricted because of technical and resource constraints. In a separate report published in March, the bank had projected that electricity consumption could reach 370 billion kilowatt-hours annually by 2030, up nearly 40% from around 270 billion in 2024. The October presentation does not specify the baseline for its 27% forecast.

Electricity supply

Uzbekistan Secures $300 Million in Loans for Power Grid Upgrades

Uzbekistan has secured $300 million in loans from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to modernize 60 electrical substations across the country. The upgrades aim to reduce power outages and electricity losses while making it easier to connect new solar and wind power plants to the grid. Electricity demand is growing as Uzbekistan’s cities and industries expand. Much of the country’s power grid was built decades ago, and aging equipment and overloaded substations contribute to electricity losses and supply disruptions. On October 27, the World Bank approved a $100 million loan. The ADB had previously approved a $200 million loan, with the agreement signed on October 15. The Uzbek government will contribute another $71 million, bringing the total program cost to $371 million. Substations direct electricity through the grid and adjust voltage before it reaches consumers. The funding will be used to replace outdated equipment and install digital control systems that allow operators to monitor electricity loads and detect faults more quickly. Uzbekistan plans to increase its installed capacity from solar, wind, and other renewable energy sources to 25 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. The substation upgrades are expected to allow the grid to accommodate at least 3.3 GW of additional renewable energy capacity. The World Bank expects annual electricity losses at the modernized substations to decline by 20 million kilowatt-hours by 2031. That is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of several thousand households. The bank also estimates that improved electricity supplies could help create or support 11,700 jobs over the five years after the upgraded facilities enter service. The state-owned National Electric Grid of Uzbekistan will carry out the program, which also includes improvements in maintenance, financial oversight, and cybersecurity. With the ADB as lead lender, the two banks have agreed to coordinate their assessments and oversight to reduce duplication and administrative costs. Since 2010, the ADB has provided Uzbekistan with more than $3.4 billion in financing and guarantees for the energy sector. In 2023, the bank separately approved $200 million to digitalize 26 distribution substations. For residents and businesses, the main measure of success will be whether electricity supplies become more reliable and power losses fall.

AIIB

AIIB and Uzbekistan Agree on $5 Billion Infrastructure Project Pipeline

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Uzbekistan have agreed on a pipeline of potential infrastructure projects worth up to $5 billion for 2026-2029. The two sides also signed a $1.5 million grant agreement to help prepare a project to modernize the country’s electricity transmission network. The updated Multi-Year Rolling Pipeline (MYRP) was signed on the sidelines of the AIIB’s 11th Annual Meeting in Doha. The document identifies areas for potential financing through 2029. The $5 billion figure represents a pipeline of prospective investments, rather than loans already approved by the bank. Uzbekistan is a founding member of the AIIB and is the bank’s largest partner in Central Asia, accounting for 51% of its operations in the region, according to Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade. Tashkent is seeking to expand cooperation on cross-border transport, energy, and water projects, while bringing more private capital into infrastructure development. The AIIB also agreed to provide a $1.5 million grant to help prepare the electricity transmission project. The funding will support technical studies, assessments of investment needs and climate risks, and preparations for integrating new solar and wind power plants into the grid. The work will focus on the southern energy corridor between the Surkhandarya and Samarkand regions and on the Fergana Valley. The studies are intended to identify bottlenecks in the transmission network and options for increasing its capacity. Grid modernization is becoming one of the key challenges in Uzbekistan’s energy transition. The government says renewable energy accounted for around 30% of electricity generation in 2025 and aims to raise the share to 54% by 2030. Connecting additional generating capacity will require both an expansion of the high-voltage transmission network and improvements in its reliability. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Uzbekistan plans to commission more than 17 GW of additional renewable energy capacity and build around 6,000 kilometers of high-voltage transmission lines by 2030. The expansion of green generation is becoming increasingly important as domestic gas production declines: Uzbekistan, once a net gas exporter, became a net importer in 2023.

Renewable energy

Acwa and KOWEPO Explore Renewable Energy Projects in Uzbekistan

South Korea’s KOWEPO, which is wholly owned by state-controlled Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), is moving into Uzbekistan’s rapidly expanding green energy market alongside Saudi Arabia’s Acwa, one of the market’s largest players. No specific projects have been announced yet, but the companies will explore opportunities in renewable generation and energy storage while considering the possibility of attracting South Korean financing. The memorandum was signed in Tashkent on August 25. For KOWEPO, the agreement offers an opportunity to bring to Central Asia the experience it has gained through projects in the Middle East totaling 3.5 GW of renewable capacity and 877 MW of gas-fired generation. For Acwa, Uzbekistan has already become its second-largest market after Saudi Arabia. The company has operated there since 2019 and is developing 19 projects with a combined capacity of more than 10 GW and potential investment estimated at $15 billion. Abid Malik, Acwa’s president for Central Asia, said the companies would also seek to “facilitate engagement with Korean financial institutions” as they assess potential projects. Acwa’s portfolio in Uzbekistan includes solar and wind power, conventional generation, green hydrogen, and energy storage. Storage is becoming increasingly important as the share of solar and wind grows because utility-scale batteries can store surplus electricity and return it to the grid when renewable generation falls. Uzbekistan aims to expand renewable energy capacity to around 25 GW by 2030, with renewables targeted to account for 54% of electricity generation. The rapid construction of solar and wind farms comes as electricity demand rises and Uzbekistan seeks to modernize a power system that has historically relied heavily on gas-fired generation. Acwa has already secured contractual priority to develop up to 2 GWh of new battery energy storage capacity in the country. KOWEPO could therefore provide additional expertise and capital. Uzbekistan’s energy transition has already attracted major investors from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, China, and elsewhere. For now, the agreement with KOWEPO remains a framework arrangement, with the capacity, cost, locations, and timelines of any joint projects yet to be announced. Its practical significance will become clearer if the companies move from exploring opportunities to concrete investment decisions.

opinion

Can Uzbekistan’s Green Transition Offset Its Gas Decline?

Uzbekistan faces a widening energy gap. Natural gas production peaked in 2008 and, after a partial recovery in the late 2010s, has fallen sharply. Official figures show output dropped from 61.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2018 to 41.5 bcm in 2024. Production fell another 15% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. The gap is already being filled from abroad. Russian gas deliveries rose 15% in 2025 to nearly 6.5 bcm, while Uzbekistan also imports gas from Turkmenistan. Renewable electricity cannot replace every household or industrial use of gas. It can reduce the volume burned in power stations, leaving more domestic fuel available elsewhere. Declining output is already changing Uzbekistan’s external position. The country, once a net gas exporter, became a net importer in 2023. Imports help protect households and factories from shortages, but they add costs and increase exposure to Russian and Turkmen supplies. Renewable generation therefore serves an energy security purpose even before its climate benefits are counted. Natural gas remains the central concern. In its 2022 review, the International Energy Agency said it provided about 85% of Uzbekistan’s total energy and electricity supplies. The government expected gas demand to rise by 30% to 65 bcm by 2030, while electricity demand would roughly double. The IEA also warned that reserves would last fewer than 20 years at the production rate then prevailing. This was a reserve-to-production estimate, not a fixed depletion date. New discoveries or investment could extend it. Lower consumption would do the same. The government has responded with a rapid renewable buildout. In 2025, solar and wind plants generated more than 10.5 billion kWh of electricity. Renewable generation, including hydropower, reached 16.8 billion kWh. The Ministry of Energy said this saved about 3.2 bcm of natural gas. That saving was equivalent to roughly half the volume Russia supplied during the year. It shows that renewables already ease the shortage. Yet 3.2 bcm remains far below the roughly 20 bcm fall in annual gas production since 2018. On current figures, the green transition is slowing the impact of the decline, not yet offsetting it. The buildout forms part of Uzbekistan’s 2019 Green Economy Transition Strategy. Renewable projects bring foreign investment and create opportunities for domestic suppliers. In December 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said local companies had supplied $700 million of materials and electrical equipment while also providing services to energy projects. Renewable generation also limits import demand by reducing the gas burned in power stations. Large projects depend heavily on decisions by the state. Procurement and land allocation affect who receives contracts. Grid access and investment approvals shape how quickly plants are completed. RFE/RL has documented concerns over opaque subcontracting in Uzbekistan’s solar sector. Its 2024 investigation found that two subcontractors on the Sherabad project were absent from publicly available documents. One company had been incorporated only two days after construction began. A founder denied accusations of corruption, while principal contractor Masdar did not respond to questions. The investigation did not establish that the...

Electricity supply

Kazakhstan Targets End to Electricity Deficit by 2027

Just days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of next year, the Energy Ministry expects the country to have a surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh. That margin would still leave relatively little room for error because it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan consumed in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. The August 14 outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Power was cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. The precise chain of events remains unclear. Kazakhstan’s national grid operator KEGOC said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s North-East-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry later acknowledged that the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the subsequent outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating the incident, although public statements so far have not identified its chair. The outage exposed a risk in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems. These links allow electricity to move across borders, but a sudden loss of generation or a major transmission failure can also affect several countries in quick succession. Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh. Electricity imports from Russia totaled 4.64 billion kWh, compared with exports of 2.16 billion kWh in the opposite direction. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8% in 2025, while peak demand reached a record 17.724 GW on December 18. Kazakhstan is also seeking to attract energy-intensive industries and large data centers. Those expectations are reflected in longer-term development plans, which already include 7.8 GW of new and modernized coal-fired generation by 2030, with investment estimated at more than $15.5 billion. The authorities expect to close the remaining short-term deficit by rapidly commissioning new generating capacity. Around 2.6 GW is scheduled to come online in 2026. Four gas-fired power plants and expansion projects at two existing power stations account for part of that capacity, while ten new renewable energy facilities are also planned. The Energy Ministry says these projects should allow Kazakhstan to fully meet its electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027. A further 845 MW is planned for 2027, of which 570 MW would come from renewable projects. By the end of that year, the ministry expects an electricity surplus of around 1.3 billion kWh. Renewable energy is expanding alongside Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on conventional generation. Thermal power plants accounted for 74.4% of electricity generation in 2025. Solar and wind facilities, along with biogas plants, provided 6.1%. The...