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China-Kazakhstan Economic Ties: Strong Trade, Weakening Investment

For the second consecutive year, China remains Kazakhstan's largest foreign economic partner. In 2023, China's share of Kazakhstan's total trade turnover surpassed 20%, up from 15.1% in 2019, according to analysts at Ranking.kz. Trade Dynamics: What Kazakhstan Sells and Buys Data from the National Statistics Bureau of the ASPiR RK show that bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and China reached $30.1 billion in 2023. Kazakhstan exported goods worth $14.9 billion to China, while imports from China totaled $15.2 billion. In the first quarter of 2025, trade turnover stood at $5.9 billion, a 5.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Analysts attribute this dip primarily to reduced exports from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s exports to China consist predominantly of raw materials: oil and gas, ores, metal concentrates, uranium, and agricultural products. China, in return, exports transport equipment, electronics, construction materials, clothing, and footwear to Kazakhstan. Notably, Kazakhstan spent over $100 million on Chinese sock imports last year. Digital technology also represents a significant share of imports, with Kazakh companies spending approximately $683.6 million on computers and laptops. Chinese Investment: From Energy to Industrial Zones China ranks among the top five foreign investors in Kazakhstan. In 2024, direct investment from China amounted to $1.2 billion, almost 50% less than the previous year. This decline mirrors broader trends affecting other major investor countries. Overall, 2024 marked a record low for gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Kazakhstan. Between 2015 and 2022, 25 joint projects valued at $7.4 billion were implemented. According to KAZAKH INVEST and Halyk Research, an additional 30 major initiatives worth $5.2 billion are in the pipeline. One flagship project is the $1.5 billion copper smelter in the Abai region, a joint venture between KAZ Minerals and Chinese investors, expected to be completed by the end of 2028. Another major initiative is an industrial town in the Zhetysu region’s special economic zone (SEZ), with investments totaling $638 million. The site will host enterprises in non-ferrous metallurgy, electronics, and food production, spanning over 1,000 hectares. China is also a key player in Kazakhstan’s renewable energy sector, financing wind farms in the Abai, Aktobe, Mangistau, and Ulytau regions at an estimated cost of $1.2 billion. As of May 1, 2025, more than 4,100 legal entities with Chinese participation were registered in Kazakhstan, which is 3.5 times the number recorded in 2019, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Of these, approximately 40.7 percent (about 1,700 companies) are involved in trade, while others operate in industry (354 enterprises), construction (352), and mining (209).

Investors Push Back Against New Renewable Energy Bill in Kyrgyzstan

A new draft law proposed by Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy has sparked concern among renewable energy investors. The legislation, currently under public review until June 20, 2025, imposes new financial and technical obligations on owners of small hydropower plants as well as solar and wind power installations. Following the review period, the bill will be submitted to the president for approval. Key Provisions and Investor Backlash Under the proposed law, operators of small hydroelectric and other renewable energy facilities would be required to pay 1% of their electricity sales revenue to local authorities. Additionally, they must maintain the ability to accumulate at least 30% of the station’s installed capacity. The draft also stipulates that electricity generated from renewable energy sources (RES), which is neither consumed by the producer nor sold under contract, will be priced at the average tariff of the previous year. Lawmakers claim the bill ensures transmission support for RES providers, mandating that distribution companies and relevant organizations enable the smooth delivery of electricity from private generators to consumers, provided the infrastructure allows. However, industry representatives argue that the legislation could stall growth in the sector. A letter from a consortium of small hydropower companies in the Chui and Issyk-Kul regions warns that the proposed changes create unnecessary obstacles and risk deterring both domestic and foreign investment. “No domestic, let alone foreign, investor will be interested in implementing renewable energy projects if the payback period at a tariff of 1.71 KGS ($0.020) per kWh is extended to 20-25 years,” said Rakhatbek Irsaliyev, director of the consortium. “This is especially true given that such projects are not implemented for personal use or resale, but to cover the country’s growing electricity deficit.” The consortium is urging the government to revisit its tariff policy. Specifically, they are calling for a system that allows energy producers to sell at updated, higher rates, rather than last year’s average. In Kyrgyzstan, electricity tariffs are typically adjusted annually on May 1. Broader Energy Context Kyrgyzstan has long touted its substantial energy potential, particularly in hydropower. With abundant rivers and glaciers, it ranks third in hydropower resources among CIS countries, following Russia and Tajikistan. Yet, less than 10% of this potential is currently being utilized. Government efforts to address the energy shortfall include the commissioning of 18 small hydropower plants in 2025 and the expansion of wind and solar infrastructure nationwide. A major project, Kambarata HPP-1 on the Naryn River, is also in development, involving cooperation with neighboring countries. Meanwhile, the CASA-1000 initiative is nearing completion. This project aims to export summer surplus electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Despite this progress, international organizations like the World Bank have urged Kyrgyzstan to raise electricity tariffs for both residential and commercial users. Since 2024, the government has begun implementing gradual tariff hikes, but experts argue that the pace is insufficient. “The tariffs set for industrial and commercial consumers allow costs to be recouped. These categories pay a fair price,” said Katarina Gassner, a World...

World Bank Approves $100 Million to Modernize Uzbekistan’s Power Grid

The World Bank has approved a $100 million credit to support the modernization of Uzbekistan’s electricity distribution system and facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources. Uzbekistan’s Regional Electric Power Networks (REPN) will contribute an additional $50 million to the initiative, marking the country’s first use of the World Bank’s Program-for-Results (PforR) financing model. Uzbekistan’s aging power distribution infrastructure poses serious challenges. Over 50% of the network is more than 30 years old and suffers from significant inefficiencies. As of 2024, technical issues contribute to the loss of approximately 13% of electricity, resulting in frequent outages across the country. The government has set a target of installing 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, experts warn that without immediate upgrades to the national grid, Uzbekistan’s infrastructure will be unable to accommodate this expansion. In addition to technical improvements, the government is working to reduce commercial losses and enhance the financial viability of the electricity sector to attract private investment. Tatiana Proskuryakova, World Bank Country Director for Central Asia, highlighted the scale of the challenge. “The total investment needed is about $3 billion. We hope other development partners and private investors will join us in supporting REPN in this crucial effort,” she said. The combined $150 million from the World Bank and REPN will be deployed over the next five years to upgrade and expand infrastructure, particularly in regions such as Karakalpakstan and Surkhandarya. Planned improvements include: Construction or modernization of 6,000 kilometers of power lines Installation of 1,200 transformers Connection of 150,000 smart meters Deployment of 4,000 data concentrators to improve automation The program also aims to enhance REPN’s operational and financial management. It includes the development of advanced planning methodologies, strengthened financial oversight, and support for corporate governance reforms. By 2029, the initiative is expected to increase customer satisfaction, reduce annual CO₂ emissions by up to 450,000 tons, and raise the proportion of women in technical and leadership roles from 9% to 14%. Earlier this year, the World Bank also approved $153 million in support of a project aimed at reforestation and combating land degradation in Uzbekistan, as part of a broader regional climate resilience program.

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan Partner on Caspian Green Energy Corridor

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have signed a landmark agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to advance a regional renewable energy initiative known as the Caspian Green Energy Corridor. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), signed on April 5 in Baku, outlines plans for a feasibility study to assess the project's potential. The primary objective is to establish a robust legal and institutional framework that will facilitate cross-border electricity trade among the three countries, particularly from renewable sources. The Caspian Green Energy Corridor is part of ADB’s broader regional strategy to promote clean energy and enhance multilateral cooperation. The initiative aims to interconnect the energy systems of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, enabling them to share and distribute renewable electricity more efficiently. “This agreement lays the foundation for deeper cooperation and shows our shared commitment to building a clean energy future,” said Yevgeniy Zhukov, ADB Director General for Central and West Asia. A key ambition of the project is to develop a green energy supply route from the Caspian region to Europe via the Black Sea Cable. The corridor is expected to improve energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and support economic development across the region. The initiative is also backed by the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program, which brings together 11 countries and several development partners to promote regional integration and reduce poverty through economic collaboration.

Kyrgyzstan Begins Construction of a New Solar Power Plant

Kyrgyzstan has launched the construction of a new solar power plant in the Kemin district of the Chui region, approximately 100 kilometers east of the capital, Bishkek. The plant will have a capacity of 100 MW and is expected to generate 155 million kWh of electricity annually. According to the government, this will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 140,000 tons and coal consumption by 50,000 tons per year. At the January 21 groundbreaking ceremony, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev described the project as a significant step toward achieving Kyrgyzstan’s energy independence and advancing sustainable development. Acknowledging that the country still heavily relies on its Soviet-era hydroelectric power plants for electricity generation, Kasymaliev emphasized Kyrgyzstan’s commitment to adopting modern and environmentally friendly energy solutions. Kasymaliev also highlighted the country’s growing energy demands, noting that Kyrgyzstan’s population now exceeds 7 million and new large-scale industrial enterprises are being established. He expressed optimism that the new solar power plant would help alleviate electricity shortages, which remain a pressing issue, especially during the winter months. The chairman extended his gratitude to Chinese partners and investors, particularly those from Shaanxi Province, for their support and contributions to the project. Kyrgyzstan is actively addressing its energy challenges by investing in a diversified mix of renewable energy initiatives, including solar and wind farms, as well as large hydroelectric power projects.

Uzbekistan to Build New Solar Plant with World Bank Support

The World Bank has approved a $3.5 million payment guarantee to support Uzbekistan’s renewable energy development. The guarantee covers the National Electric Grid of Uzbekistan JSC’s obligation to purchase electricity from a 100-megawatt solar power plant to be built and operated by the French company Voltalia in the Khorezm region. Details of the Solar Plant Project The solar plant, set to be commissioned in November 2025, will span 177 hectares and generate more than 240 gigawatt-hours of renewable energy annually. It is projected to reduce CO₂ emissions by over 230,000 metric tons each year and produce enough clean energy to power approximately 60,000 households. This initiative aligns with Uzbekistan’s commitment to increasing clean energy production and advancing its transition to a green economy. Broader World Bank Support In addition to this project, the World Bank has allocated $800 million to accelerate Uzbekistan’s transformation into an inclusive and stable market economy. This financing supports reforms to: Improve the business environment. Enhance agriculture, railways, and energy efficiency. Strengthen public finance management. Expand social services. Increase preparedness for environmental risks. Favorable Financing Terms The World Bank’s financial support employs highly concessional loans, offering low-cost, long-term repayment options that are more favorable than standard international financial market rates. Uzbekistan’s collaboration with the World Bank underscores its strategic focus on sustainable development and clean energy to meet environmental and economic goals.