Renewable energy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Electricity supply

Kazakhstan Targets End to Electricity Deficit by 2027

Just days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of next year, the Energy Ministry expects the country to have a surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh. That margin would still leave relatively little room for error because it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan consumed in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. The August 14 outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Power was cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. The precise chain of events remains unclear. Kazakhstan’s national grid operator KEGOC said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s North-East-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry later acknowledged that the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the subsequent outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating the incident, although public statements so far have not identified its chair. The outage exposed a risk in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems. These links allow electricity to move across borders, but a sudden loss of generation or a major transmission failure can also affect several countries in quick succession. Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh. Electricity imports from Russia totaled 4.64 billion kWh, compared with exports of 2.16 billion kWh in the opposite direction. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8% in 2025, while peak demand reached a record 17.724 GW on December 18. Kazakhstan is also seeking to attract energy-intensive industries and large data centers. Those expectations are reflected in longer-term development plans, which already include 7.8 GW of new and modernized coal-fired generation by 2030, with investment estimated at more than $15.5 billion. The authorities expect to close the remaining short-term deficit by rapidly commissioning new generating capacity. Around 2.6 GW is scheduled to come online in 2026. Four gas-fired power plants and expansion projects at two existing power stations account for part of that capacity, while ten new renewable energy facilities are also planned. The Energy Ministry says these projects should allow Kazakhstan to fully meet its electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027. A further 845 MW is planned for 2027, of which 570 MW would come from renewable projects. By the end of that year, the ministry expects an electricity surplus of around 1.3 billion kWh. Renewable energy is expanding alongside Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on conventional generation. Thermal power plants accounted for 74.4% of electricity generation in 2025. Solar and wind facilities, along with biogas plants, provided 6.1%. The...

Energy Investment

Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector Without Local Business: The Anatomy of Major Projects

In late June 2026, construction began on a 1 GW wind power plant in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl Region. The project is valued at $1.4 billion. Companies based in the United Arab Emirates, Masdar and W Solar, hold 80% of the project, while Kazakhstan’s quasi-state sector holds the remaining 20% through Qazaq Green Power and the Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund. This ownership model has become typical across Kazakhstan’s energy industry. Nearly all major new energy infrastructure projects rely on foreign capital. The country’s largest renewable energy developments involve international investors, including France’s TotalEnergies and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. Even when agreements collapse, the government continues to rely on foreign partners. After financing problems ended cooperation with Russia’s Inter RAO, construction of new thermal power plants in Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk was quickly reassigned to a Kazakh-Singapore consortium. A similar pattern appears across the sector: foreign investors provide most of the capital and technology, while Kazakhstan’s state-linked companies take minority stakes through Samruk-Kazyna or its subsidiaries This has created an unusual situation. Despite an acute shortage of generating capacity and guaranteed long-term demand, Kazakhstan’s largest private businesses have largely stayed away from electricity generation. Instead, domestic capital continues to favor sectors with greater liquidity and shorter investment horizons, ranging from finance to residential real estate. The reasons lie in straightforward economics, where financing costs and regulatory conditions outweigh the sector’s potential returns. The Financial Equation Power generation is one of the most capital-intensive infrastructure industries, with investment payback periods typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. Such projects require access to long-term financing at low interest rates. For Kazakhstan’s private sector, those financing instruments are largely unavailable. Under the National Bank’s tight monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate standing at 17%, commercial borrowing costs for businesses routinely exceed 20% annually. Financing the construction of a power plant with local-currency loans at those rates is, mathematically, unviable. Such projects are virtually guaranteed to become unprofitable. Rather than engaging in complex, long-term infrastructure financing, Kazakhstan’s banking sector has increasingly concentrated on faster and more profitable lending. Official statistics from the National Bank of Kazakhstan illustrate this imbalance. As of May 2026, banks’ claims on households had reached approximately $60 billion, while lending to non-financial private enterprises, the real economy,stood at about $29 billion, less than half that amount. In practice, commercial banks have largely withdrawn from financing major industrial investment projects, preferring consumer lending with higher liquidity and quicker returns. Foreign corporations, meanwhile, enter Kazakhstan with access to international capital markets. They secure financing from global development institutions or sovereign wealth funds in their home countries at significantly lower borrowing costs. As a result, domestic private investors often lose the competitive race before projects even reach the investment decision stage. Unequal Conditions for Investors A second obstacle for domestic investors lies in Kazakhstan’s regulatory framework. Electricity tariffs have historically been kept under government control to limit inflationary pressures and avoid sharp increases in household utility bills and production costs. To attract major international energy companies,...

Rogun Hydropower Plant

World Bank Approves New $300 Million Grant for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a second phase of financing for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, providing a $300 million grant to support construction of what is expected to become the largest power station in Central Asia. According to the World Bank, the new funding from the International Development Association will finance civil works, electromechanical equipment for electricity generation, project implementation support, and environmental and social measures, including resettlement assistance and livelihood restoration for affected households. The financing will also support reservoir monitoring, forecasting systems, and flood-risk management for downstream communities. The Rogun project is expected to generate 14,400 gigawatt-hours of renewable electricity annually, equivalent to roughly 60% of Tajikistan’s current electricity generation. The World Bank said the plant will help reduce the country’s chronic winter electricity shortages, improve access to reliable power for around 10 million people, create more than 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, and enable electricity exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “In addition to reducing chronic power shortages, increased access to reliable electricity from the Rogun HPP will help power economic transformation and create jobs in Tajikistan,” said Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s director for Central Asia. “By increasing the supply of clean electricity, this transformational project will help power homes, businesses, and public services, creating employment opportunities in the country.” The World Bank also said increased electricity exports would strengthen regional energy trade. “By facilitating electricity exports, the Rogun HPP will help revitalize the regional power market, allowing Central Asian countries to use their energy assets more efficiently,” said Charles Cormier, the bank’s director for infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia. “Enhanced regional connectivity is expected to reduce supply constraints in the region and contribute to improved reliability and energy security.” At the request of the government of Tajikistan, the World Bank is coordinating international support for the project through the Rogun Coordination Group. The group includes development partners that have approved or expressed interest in supporting the project, including the Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, OPEC Fund, and several Gulf-based development funds. The latest financing comes as the project continues to face environmental scrutiny. Last year, The Times of Central Asia reported that the World Bank’s Inspection Panel had registered and reviewed a complaint concerning the bank’s involvement in the Rogun project. The complaint was submitted by the environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries on behalf of communities living downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complainants argued that the project’s environmental and social assessments were outdated and did not fully evaluate potential downstream impacts. Environmental groups warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta, potentially accelerating desertification, increasing soil salinity, and affecting livelihoods in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In November 2025, environmental groups criticized the World Bank Board after it declined to authorize a full investigation, despite an Inspection Panel recommendation for a comprehensive review. The World Bank has said the project is subject to environmental and social safeguards,...

Energy Security

Kazakhstan Expects to Double Renewable Energy Capacity by 2029

Kazakhstan expects to fully meet domestic electricity demand by early 2027 and move into a stable power surplus by 2029, partly through a planned doubling of renewable energy capacity, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said at a government meeting. Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan’s power system currently includes 254 generation facilities, including 172 renewable energy installations. Conventional energy sources still dominate the country’s power mix. Coal-fired plants account for 13.7 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, gas-fired plants for 7.1 GW, and large hydropower stations for 2.5 GW. Kazakhstan’s total installed generating capacity stands at 27.1 GW, while renewable energy facilities account for 3.8 GW. Kazakhstan generated a record 123.1 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity last year, while consumption reached 124.6 billion kWh. This year, output is expected to rise further to 126.5 billion kWh, the ministry said. The gap between production and consumption has been narrowing steadily, and the government plans to commission 13.3 GW of new capacity by the end of 2029, including 5.9 GW from renewable energy sources. “By 2029, 13.3 GW of new capacity will be commissioned. Of this volume, 12.56 GW will come from entirely new generation facilities, while 0.74 GW will replace existing capacity,” Akkenzhenov said. “The commissioning of new facilities will allow us to fully meet the economy’s electricity demand starting from early 2027, followed by a surplus. This additional generation will also support energy-intensive artificial intelligence infrastructure and large data centers,” he added. Under Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector Development Plan through 2035, the government also plans to introduce more than 26.3 GW of additional generating capacity. The ministry said the decision to build new facilities is based on long-term projections of rising electricity demand. Kazakhstan is also implementing a national project to expand coal-fired generation using what officials describe as cleaner coal technologies in line with environmental regulations. That program includes investment projects with a combined installed capacity of around 7.8 GW. Key projects include the construction of the Ekibastuz GRES-3 power plant, a thermal power station in Kurchatov, and three new combined heat and power plants in Kokshetau, Semey, and Ust-Kamenogorsk. In total, the national energy project includes 19 initiatives, eight new projects and 11 focused on the expansion and modernization of existing facilities. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s electricity deficit was projected to reach 5.7 billion kWh in January 2025, up from 2.4 billion kWh a year earlier. The country currently imports most of its shortfall from Russia and signed an agreement with Tajikistan in May 2025 to import electricity from the Rogun Hydropower Plant.

Wind power

Masdar Launches Construction of $1.4 Billion Wind Farm in Southern Kazakhstan

Construction has begun on one of Kazakhstan’s largest renewable energy projects, a 1-gigawatt wind power plant in the southern Zhambyl Region, as the country moves to address energy shortages and expand green generation capacity. The $1.4 billion project is being developed by a consortium of Kazakhstani companies and investors from the United Arab Emirates. The shareholders include Abu Dhabi-based clean energy company Masdar with a 40% stake, W Solar with 40%, Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Green Power, part of the Samruk-Kazyna fund, with 18%, and the Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund with 2%. The official groundbreaking ceremony took place on June 29 in a teleconference format, with the launch signal given from Astana by Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Energy Sungat Yessimkhanov, Samruk-Kazyna CEO Nurlan Zhakupov, and Masdar CEO Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi. Commercial operations are scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2029. “Partnership with Masdar contributes to the development of renewable energy and Kazakhstan’s progress toward carbon neutrality,” Yessimkhanov said. “This project will strengthen regional energy security and bring advanced technologies into the renewable energy sector.” The project’s key technical feature is its integration of wind generation with battery energy storage. The facility will include an energy storage system with a capacity of 300 MW and storage volume of 600 MWh. Officials say the battery system will help address one of the main challenges of renewable energy by stabilizing electricity supply during fluctuating weather conditions and peak evening demand. The wind farm is expected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2.5 million tons annually, supporting Kazakhstan’s national climate targets. Masdar has been expanding its presence across Central Asia. In 2024, Uzbekistan signed an agreement with the UAE company to build Central Asia’s first solar power plant with battery storage in the Bukhara region. In 2022, Masdar also reached an agreement with Turkmenistan to build the country’s first utility-scale solar plant, with a planned capacity of 100 MW. The company faces growing competition from Chinese firms in the region. In May, China Energy International Group launched construction of a 500-MW wind farm in central Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan aims to generate 15% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 as part of its broader strategy to reduce dependence on coal and improve long-term energy security.

Sustainable Development

Kazakhstan and China to Establish Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Park in Atyrau

Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Oil and Gas University (AOGU) has signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Company Limited (AIKO) to cooperate in renewable energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and advanced technology transfer, as part of efforts to expand sustainable technologies in western Kazakhstan. The agreement includes plans to establish the AIKO-AOGU Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Demonstration Park at the university’s new campus in Atyrau, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The demonstration park is expected to serve as a scientific, educational, and technological platform for testing modern agricultural solutions tailored to the arid climate and limited water resources of the Atyrau region. According to the ministry, the facility will combine renewable energy systems, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, and innovative farming practices to improve efficiency and sustainability. The project will make extensive use of solar energy, AI-powered management systems, water-saving technologies, and automated agricultural solutions. It will also explore the development of aquaculture as an additional sustainable food production option. “The project aims to address several strategic objectives simultaneously,” Utebayev University Rector Gulzada Shakulikova said. “The first stage involves the creation of solar greenhouses and demonstration agricultural plots. Smart irrigation and fertigation systems, water reuse infrastructure, solar power plants and energy storage systems, and digital management and monitoring platforms will also be implemented.” She added that the partnership will also establish a joint AIKO-AOGU exhibition, education, and research center. The initiative is expected to create new opportunities for university researchers and students, allowing them to participate in international-level scientific projects and technology development. The agreement is part of the university’s efforts to develop green technologies and position Atyrau as a regional innovation hub in Central Asia for renewable energy and sustainable development. For Kazakhstan, the project also reflects broader efforts to diversify the economy and modernize agriculture through climate-resilient technologies amid growing concerns over water scarcity and environmental sustainability.