Kazakhstan GDP Forecast Rises to Nearly $398 Billion

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Kazakhstan’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at nearly $398 billion in 2026. The figure places the country 47th in a global ranking published by Visual Capitalist, based on the IMF’s October forecasts. The fund expects Kazakhstan’s economy to grow by 4.4% this year after adjusting for inflation, compared with global growth of 3.1%. An earlier ranking, published in January, placed Kazakhstan 50th, with projected GDP of about $320 billion for 2026. The tenge, Kazakhstan’s currency, gained approximately 18% against the dollar over the year to October 28. A stronger tenge increases the dollar value of Kazakhstan’s economy, even without an equivalent increase in actual production. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s largest economy by nominal GDP. Uzbekistan, the region’s second-largest economy, is projected to have a GDP of $178.17 billion in 2026. Turkmenistan’s projected GDP is about $83 billion, Kyrgyzstan’s is $26.69 billion, and Tajikistan’s is $21.11 billion. Kazakhstan’s nominal GDP per person is projected to exceed $19,000 in 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy estimates that the economy grew by 4.2% in January–September 2026, with the non-resource sector expanding by 5.4%. Construction output increased by 11.5%, while manufacturing, transportation, and trade also grew. Oil production, meanwhile, fell by 8.3%. According to the ministry’s October 13 report, manufacturing accounted for 14.1% of GDP in the first half of the year. Machinery production grew by 22.8% in January–September, while chemicals and pharmaceuticals also recorded strong growth. The IMF expects Kazakhstan’s real economic growth to accelerate to 4.9% in 2027.

Opinion: The U.S. Dollar Loses Its Luster as the Uzbek Som Shines

From May 20, 2025, to June 19, 2025, the U.S. dollar declined from 12,885 Uzbek som to 12,625 som, reaching its lowest level since early December 2023. This trend is anticipated to persist. Over the past 30 days, the dollar has depreciated by 2.08% against the som. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan adheres to a flexible exchange rate mechanism, commonly referred to as a floating exchange rate. This approach allows the value of the Uzbek som to be primarily influenced by market forces of supply and demand, rather than being fixed or pegged to another currency. In the context of Uzbekistan, the Central Bank defines the market-determined exchange rate, permitting the som to fluctuate freely based on the interactions between buyers and sellers in the foreign exchange market. In 2017, Uzbekistan transitioned to a flexible exchange rate regime, aligning the som with market conditions and narrowing the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. This move is expected to enhance export competitiveness, as noted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). While the market predominantly determines the exchange rate, the Central Bank reserves the right to intervene in the foreign exchange market to mitigate excessive fluctuations or address significant imbalances. However, it does not maintain a fixed exchange rate. The primary objective of the Central Bank is to uphold price stability, ensuring low and stable inflation. The flexible exchange rate regime empowers the Central Bank to utilize interest rates as a tool to influence inflation and manage the overall economy. Since 2020, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan has been implementing an inflation targeting framework that guides its monetary policy decisions, including those related to the exchange rate. Uzbekistan has recently achieved a remarkable milestone, with its international reserves soaring to an unprecedented $49.6 billion, primarily driven by a substantial increase in gold prices. This significant figure, recorded at the end of last week, represents the highest level of international reserves since the Central Bank of Uzbekistan began tracking this data in 2013. Uzbekistan has been on a remarkable journey of financial growth, marked by a sustained increase in its reserves over the past five months. Since the beginning of the year, the country's reserves have increased by an impressive $8.48 billion, reaching a new historic high of $49.66 billion. In May alone, the reserves saw a substantial boost of $410.2 million, translating to a 0.8% increase compared to April. This consistent upward momentum not only highlights the resilience of Uzbekistan's economy but also demonstrates its ability to adapt and thrive in a dynamic global landscape. Central to this financial ascent has been the role of gold, which has enjoyed significant demand due to its elevated prices in international markets. Over the last month, gold prices surged by 3.27%, rising from $3,280 to $3,390.07 per ounce. When examining the broader trends, it is evident that gold has significantly appreciated, with a striking 25.5% increase since the start of this year and an even more impressive 41.3% surge over...