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Energy Security

Central Asia Considers Single Gas Ring to Link Regional Energy Systems

A proposal to connect the five Central Asian capitals into a unified, synchronized gas network has generated widespread debate among regional energy experts following a major industry forum in Tashkent. The idea, referred to as the “Central Asia Gas Ring,” was introduced by Kazakh oil and gas analyst Askar Ismailov during the Central Asia Oil & Gas Forum in early November. An analysis of the proposal was later published by the Uzbek outlet Upl.uz, citing assessments from regional and international experts. The concept envisions physically linking the gas transportation systems of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan into an integrated regional ring, modeled on the existing Central Asian Unified Power System, which already enables cross-border electricity coordination. According to Ismailov, natural gas should be seen not only as a tradable resource but as a strategic instrument for regional integration and energy security, especially in the context of growing geopolitical volatility. Experts cited by Upl.uz argue that a gas ring could help countries better manage seasonal fluctuations in demand and reduce the risk of widespread energy shortages. Recent winter blackouts, particularly in Uzbekistan, have heightened concerns about supply resilience. The proposed system could also ensure more stable gas flows to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which lack significant domestic hydrocarbon resources and frequently experience shortages. The initiative has attracted interest beyond Central Asia. Valérie Ducrot, head of the Global Gas Center, described the plan as a new model of energy cooperation that could attract international investment if the five participating states align their energy policies. Research groups such as SPIK and SpecialEurasia, also cited in the analysis, view the project as a potential cornerstone of regional infrastructure, aligning national interests around shared goals for stability and integration. Economic incentives vary across the region. For Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, the ring could provide enhanced flexibility in export routes and pricing mechanisms. For gas-dependent Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the proposal promises greater energy security, seen as essential for long-term economic and social development. External stakeholders, including China and the European Union, are expected to show interest in financing the project, while Russia is likely to seek continued influence over pricing structures and logistics. Ismailov estimates the total cost at between $4 billion and $5 billion, with most of the funding needed for modernization of aging Soviet-era pipelines and construction of select new infrastructure segments. While Upl.uz notes that technical and political hurdles remain, the proposal highlights growing momentum toward collective energy solutions in Central Asia.

Energy deficit

Alisher Sultanov Leaves Office After a Decade of Declining Gas Production in Uzbekistan

Alisher Sultanov was relieved of his post as presidential representative on energy security on December 16, ending some ten years of dubious performance as one of Uzbekistan’s top energy officials. Under Sultanov’s watch as head of the state oil and gas company and then as a top official in Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry, the country’s oil and gas production decreased, and Uzbekistan went from being a gas exporter to an importer. A Career in the Gas and Oil Sector Sultanov started working in Uzbekistan’s energy sector in the mid-1990s and gradually made his way through the ranks at the state oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz. In 2015, Sultanov became Uzbekneftegaz’s chairman, serving in that position until 2018. In 2017, Sultanov was appointed Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the fuel, energy, and industrial sector, and in February 2019, he was named Energy Minister. He stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, officially for health reasons, but by 2023 was back as presidential advisor on oil and gas, chemical, and energy matters, though that title was changed in July 2025 to the president’s representative on energy security. Stagnation and Decline Uzbekistan does not have large oil reserves. BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy has continually put Uzbekistan’s oil reserves at somewhere around 600-620 million barrels. Uzbekistan does have significant natural gas reserves of at least some 1.1 trillion cubic meters, however, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The country has been working with international partners to explore for new deposits, particularly in areas of the recently dried out Aral Sea. In 2011, Uzbekistan’s average oil production was some 80,000 barrels per day (bpd), and gas production for that year was some 56.6 billion cubic meters (bcm). Uzbekistan was still sourcing from many fields that had been producing since Uzbekistan was a Soviet republic, and it was not surprising that yields from these depleted fields started decreasing after 2011. Sultanov became head of Uzbekneftegaz in August 2015, and that year, oil production had already dropped to some 60,000 bpd and gas to some 53.6 bcm. Both fluctuated only a little over the next three years, ending 2018 at an average of 64,000 bpd and 58.3 bcm. The 2018 figure for gas was the peak production year of the 2011-2020 period, though it fell well short of the 66 bcm Uzbekneftegaz was predicting for 2018. After Sultanov was named Energy Minister in 2019, the figure for gas production fell significantly. In 2019, gas production was 57.5 bcm, but in 2020, only 47.1 bcm, though oil output held steady at 67,000 bpd and 61,000 bpd, respectively. Gas production increased slightly in 2021 to 50.9 bcm, but then dropped to 48.9 bcm in 2022. The decrease continued after Sultanov stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, plummeting to 44.2 bcm in 2023 and 42.2 bcm in 2024. With a rapidly growing population and expanding industrial sector, Uzbekistan’s domestic gas consumption was sharply increasing, rising from 43.6 bcm in 2020 to 54.6...

Natural gas

Outdated Infrastructure Threatens Central Asia’s Energy Security

Central Asia’s natural gas sector is facing mounting pressure as population growth and rising consumption outpace production, SpecialEurasia reports. The region’s population now exceeds 70 million, with annual growth rates surpassing 2% in many republics. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan together account for more than 95% of Central Asia’s gas reserves. Combined, they hold approximately 3.5 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of proven reserves. Turkmenistan alone possesses an estimated 17 tcm, giving it the world’s fourth-largest proven gas reserves outside the Middle East and Russia. Despite these substantial reserves, aging infrastructure and insufficient investment continue to hamper production capacity. Kazakhstan produces around 59 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, Uzbekistan 45 bcm, and Turkmenistan 81 bcm. However, surging domestic demand has outstripped supply, compelling Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to import gas from Russia, a dependency that dates back to the 1990s but is becoming increasingly fraught amid current geopolitical tensions. Much of the region’s pipeline infrastructure remains from the Soviet era and lacks the capacity to meet contemporary needs, according to SpecialEurasia. Turkmenistan remains heavily reliant on a single pipeline route to Russia, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan depend on Russian energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft for imports and infrastructure maintenance. Efforts to diversify export routes beyond Russia have encountered difficulties due to limited infrastructure and geopolitical uncertainty. China has emerged as a dominant player in the region, funding pipeline and transportation projects through the Belt and Road Initiative. These investments have enhanced connectivity with Chinese markets but have also increased Central Asia’s economic dependence on Beijing. Meanwhile, the European Union has advocated for green energy and digitization, though its financial commitments remain modest compared to those of Russia and China. Iran is positioning itself as a potential transit corridor, offering Central Asia access to seaports. However, international sanctions and persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit broader cooperation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further strained Moscow’s regional relationships, diminishing its capacity to provide the kind of support it once did. Central Asian governments now face the challenge of maintaining a strategic balance among Russia, China, and Western powers to ensure both economic resilience and political autonomy. SpecialEurasia concludes that without substantial investment in infrastructure, greater economic diversification, and a more balanced approach to foreign partnerships, Central Asia will remain vulnerable despite its abundant natural gas resources.

Energy deficit

Central Asia Faces Growing Energy Deficit

Central Asia is heading toward a serious energy crunch. According to the Logistan.info portal, regional demand for imported natural gas is expected to reach 25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. This looming shortfall is driven by rapid population growth, around one million people per year, industrial expansion, declining domestic production, and the deteriorating state of aging infrastructure. Recent accidents in Bishkek, Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Ekibastuz illustrate the scale and urgency of the problem. Kazakhstan: Rising Output, Falling Exports Kazakhstan produced 59.2 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. However, nearly half of this was reinjected into oil reservoirs to sustain production. Only 29 billion cubic meters were available for domestic consumption. Soaring internal demand has already led to a sharp decline in exports to China, which fell 40% to 8.7 billion cubic meters. Uzbekistan: From Exporter to Importer Uzbekistan's situation is even more precarious. In 2024, the country produced 44.6 billion cubic meters of gas and 713,400 tons of oil, figures that are in decline, dropping 4.5% and 8.5% respectively. To cover the shortfall, Tashkent has turned to Russia and Turkmenistan, purchasing $1.7 billion worth of gas. Uzbekneftegaz expects to produce just 26.5 billion cubic meters of commercial gas in 2025, far short of projected domestic needs. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan produce virtually no hydrocarbons and rely entirely on imports of these resources. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow in tandem with their populations, and domestic energy generation falls short of even basic consumption needs. Turkmenistan remains the region’s top gas exporter, sending 41.3 billion cubic meters abroad in 2024. However, Ashgabat’s ability to increase exports is limited by its own growing domestic consumption, binding long-term contracts with China, and a lack of large-scale infrastructure development. Investment, Delays, and Structural Challenges While Central Asian governments have announced plans for new hydroelectric plants, combined heat and power stations, and nuclear power facilities, tangible progress remains slow. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have yet to break ground on any of their proposed nuclear power projects. Key obstacles include a shortage of qualified personnel, water scarcity, environmental concerns, and, above all, insufficient funding. Without substantial foreign investment, modernization efforts are likely to stall. To ease financial pressures, countries in the region have begun raising gas and electricity tariffs. These price hikes aim to offset upgrade costs but have provoked public backlash and fueled inflation. In Uzbekistan, for instance, inflation accelerated to 15% in May 2025, with energy prices cited as the primary driver. The Russian Option Forecasts for regional gas imports remain imprecise, but analysts estimate the need could rise to 20-25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. Russia appears poised to become the main supplier, though details of supply agreements, including pricing, volumes, and terms, have not been disclosed. Central Asian governments are attempting to keep cooperation with Moscow strictly within the economic sphere, wary of entangling political dependencies. As a result, the region faces a dual challenge: securing energy stability through...

Gas

Iraq Seeks Alternative Gas Import Routes Through Turkmenistan Amid Sanctions Challenge

Iraq is intensifying efforts to implement a long-discussed agreement on natural gas imports from Turkmenistan, seeking to stabilize its energy sector and diversify supply sources. According to Ahmed Musa, spokesperson for Iraq’s Ministry of Energy, the plan involves importing around 20 million cubic meters of gas per day through pipelines connecting Turkmenistan and Iran. The route is intended to offset a shortfall caused by reduced gas flows from Iran, which currently supplies approximately one-third of Iraq’s energy needs. However, the implementation of this deal has faced significant hurdles. Chief among them is the issue of payments: the Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI) has been unable to issue a letter of credit due to U.S. sanctions on Iran, through whose territory the gas must transit. In an effort to resolve the deadlock, Iraqi Energy Minister Ziad Ali Fadel visited Turkmenistan to explore potential mechanisms to bypass the sanctions and operationalize the agreement. The foundations of this partnership were laid in 2023, when Iraq and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding, agreeing to continue negotiations on the logistics of fuel transit via Iran. Progress followed in November 2023, when both sides signed a protocol outlining the key commercial terms. Under the deal, Iraq is set to receive 45 billion cubic meters of gas over five years, equivalent to 9 billion cubic meters annually. The arrangement is structured as a swap: Turkmenistan will deliver gas to Iran, which in turn will transfer an equivalent volume to Iraq. Further advancing bilateral ties, Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov discussed gas supplies and the potential opening of an Iraqi embassy in Ashgabat with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani in March 2025. The talks underscored the growing strategic importance of energy cooperation between the two nations. A Strategic Energy Lifeline Iraq's reliance on natural gas to power its electricity grid makes securing reliable fuel sources a national priority. Given the country’s frequent power shortages and its current dependence on Iranian gas, diversifying suppliers is seen as crucial for both energy security and political autonomy. Turkmen gas is viewed as a strategically vital resource that could help stabilize Iraq’s energy sector and reduce vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions. The five-year agreement with Ashgabat aims to establish predictable, long-term supplies. Nevertheless, full-scale gas deliveries have yet to begin. The main obstacle remains the inability to process payments due to U.S. sanctions on Iran. Baghdad must either secure exemptions or devise alternative payment mechanisms to activate the contract. Simultaneously, technical discussions continue among Iraq, Iran, and Turkmenistan on ensuring reliable transport and infrastructure under the swap scheme. If these issues are resolved, Iraq could gain a dependable new energy partner, while Turkmenistan would expand its reach into a key southern market, strengthening both nations' strategic positions.

Gas

Abu Dhabi Energy Giant Joins Offshore Gas Project in Turkmenistan

XRG, the international investment arm of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), has acquired a significant stake in a major offshore gas project in Turkmenistan’s Caspian Sea sector. The deal was announced on May 14 by energy news outlet Neftegaz, citing the company’s press service. Established in late 2024, XRG manages $80 billion in assets and focuses on global investments in chemicals, natural gas, and renewable energy. The initiative forms part of Abu Dhabi’s broader strategy to diversify its international portfolio and reduce reliance on crude oil exports. Under the new agreement, Malaysia’s state energy company Petronas will retain a 57% majority stake in Caspian Block I. XRG will hold 38%, while Turkmenistan’s state company Khazarnabit will control the remaining 5%. A long-term gas sales agreement was also signed with Turkmenistan’s state concern Türkmengaz. In parallel, Petronas, Khazarnabit, and the state oil company Türkmennebit concluded a new production-sharing agreement for Block I. Located offshore in the Caspian Sea, Block I currently produces approximately 400 million cubic feet of natural gas per day and is estimated to hold over 7 trillion cubic feet in reserves. Petronas has operated in Turkmenistan since 1996 and manages a gas processing plant and onshore terminal in Kiyanly. This latest agreement builds on momentum from a high-level visit by Turkmenistan’s National Leader Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov to the United Arab Emirates in January 2024. During the visit, ADNOC and Türkmengaz signed a memorandum of understanding to explore joint development of the third phase of the Galkynyş gas field and associated infrastructure.