Outdated Infrastructure Threatens Central Asia’s Energy Security
Central Asia’s natural gas sector is facing mounting pressure as population growth and rising consumption outpace production, SpecialEurasia reports. The region’s population now exceeds 70 million, with annual growth rates surpassing 2% in many republics. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan together account for more than 95% of Central Asia’s gas reserves. Combined, they hold approximately 3.5 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of proven reserves. Turkmenistan alone possesses an estimated 17 tcm, giving it the world’s fourth-largest proven gas reserves outside the Middle East and Russia. Despite these substantial reserves, aging infrastructure and insufficient investment continue to hamper production capacity. Kazakhstan produces around 59 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually, Uzbekistan 45 bcm, and Turkmenistan 81 bcm. However, surging domestic demand has outstripped supply, compelling Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to import gas from Russia, a dependency that dates back to the 1990s but is becoming increasingly fraught amid current geopolitical tensions. Much of the region’s pipeline infrastructure remains from the Soviet era and lacks the capacity to meet contemporary needs, according to SpecialEurasia. Turkmenistan remains heavily reliant on a single pipeline route to Russia, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan depend on Russian energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft for imports and infrastructure maintenance. Efforts to diversify export routes beyond Russia have encountered difficulties due to limited infrastructure and geopolitical uncertainty. China has emerged as a dominant player in the region, funding pipeline and transportation projects through the Belt and Road Initiative. These investments have enhanced connectivity with Chinese markets but have also increased Central Asia’s economic dependence on Beijing. Meanwhile, the European Union has advocated for green energy and digitization, though its financial commitments remain modest compared to those of Russia and China. Iran is positioning itself as a potential transit corridor, offering Central Asia access to seaports. However, international sanctions and persistent geopolitical tensions continue to limit broader cooperation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further strained Moscow’s regional relationships, diminishing its capacity to provide the kind of support it once did. Central Asian governments now face the challenge of maintaining a strategic balance among Russia, China, and Western powers to ensure both economic resilience and political autonomy. SpecialEurasia concludes that without substantial investment in infrastructure, greater economic diversification, and a more balanced approach to foreign partnerships, Central Asia will remain vulnerable despite its abundant natural gas resources.
