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IMF Forecasts Slower Growth for Kyrgyzstan, While Authorities Project Higher Rates

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kyrgyzstan's economic growth to slow to 6.8% in 2025, even after strong performance in the first half of the year. In its latest report, the IMF projects medium-term growth to stabilize at 5.2%. By contrast, Kyrgyz authorities remain bullish, forecasting GDP growth of 8.5-9% by year-end. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan's GDP expanded by more than 12% between January and May 2025, with preliminary figures placing the economy’s value at 573 billion KGS (approximately $6.5 billion). Reflecting this momentum, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan recently revised its growth forecast upward from 8% to 9%. The central bank attributed this adjustment to accelerated investment activity, rising household incomes, and stronger domestic demand. Growth is being driven by key sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and construction, bolstered by proactive fiscal measures and robust business activity. Diverging Forecasts and Economic Narratives While acknowledging the resilience of Kyrgyzstan’s economy amid global volatility, the IMF maintains a more cautious outlook. Its report highlights a decline in inflation to single-digit levels and improvements in public debt management, both of which create fiscal space for critical investments in infrastructure, energy, and human capital. “In the medium term, growth is expected to approach its potential of 5.2% as re-export trade normalizes. However, the economic outlook remains sensitive to geopolitical risks. Strengthening fiscal buffers and implementing structural reforms remain priorities for the country,” the IMF noted in a statement. This divergence in outlook is not new. In 2023, then Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov famously wagered with World Bank Chief Economist Hugh Riddell that GDP growth would exceed 7%. Japarov ultimately won the bet, as the actual performance validated his projection, despite widespread skepticism. Experts Weigh In Economist Nurgul Akimova attributes the differing forecasts to contrasting methodologies. “International organizations use standardized models that consider macroeconomic indicators, institutional stability, and vulnerability to external shocks,” she explained. “Kyrgyz authorities, by contrast, often base their projections on optimistic assumptions about investment inflows, export expansion, and remittances.” Akimova also highlighted the political motivations behind domestic forecasts. “Official estimates serve to project confidence, both to the public and to investors. However, overly optimistic projections can obscure risks and complicate fiscal planning.” “In the short term, the government can often meet its targets by mobilizing domestic resources. But in the long run, IMF forecasts tend to be more accurate as they account for both internal and external vulnerabilities,” she concluded.

Economy Economic Growth GDP Growth Forecasts IMF

Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices. While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels. Global Economic Highlights In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively. Central Asia Outlook In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.

World Bank Trade WTO International Cooperation Economic Reforms IMF

Uzbekistan Aims to Join WTO by 2026

Uzbekistan is intensifying efforts to finalize its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), aiming for completion by 2026. At the ninth meeting of the Working Group on Accession, held December 5-6, a delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjayev reaffirmed the country’s commitment to this timeline. WTO members expressed support for Uzbekistan’s high-level political engagement, and encouraged continued alignment of its trade regime with international standards. Khodjayev emphasized that WTO accession is not merely a technical procedure but a critical driver of internal reforms. “This goal demonstrates the inevitability of Uzbekistan's integration into the global trading system. In 2025, efforts will focus on completing negotiations and harmonizing legislation with WTO norms,” Khodjayev stated. The Uzbek delegation included Azizbek Urunov, the president's special representative on WTO issues, Deputy Economy Minister Ahadbek Khaidarov, and representatives from various agencies. Some officials joined the discussions virtually from Tashkent. Chief Negotiator Azizbek Urunov reported that Uzbekistan has concluded bilateral negotiations with nine additional WTO members, bringing the total to 22. This milestone underscores significant progress in the accession process. WTO Deputy Director General Xiangchen Zhang commended Uzbekistan for its ambitious reforms, including Presidential Decree DP-85, which aims to align national legislation with WTO norms. These efforts align with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s strategy to accelerate economic modernization. Chairman of the Working Group, Ambassador Yoon Seong-Dok of South Korea, also noted substantial progress at both bilateral and multilateral levels. He highlighted Uzbekistan’s productive cooperation with international organizations such as the IMF, World Bank, and WTO. The Working Group reviewed Uzbekistan’s draft report outlining commitments as a prospective WTO member and examined recent legislative changes. Since May 2024, Uzbekistan has enacted 192 legal acts to comply with WTO standards. Ambassador Yoon stressed the importance of sustained efforts in 2025 to meet the next milestones. “The coming seven to eight months will be crucial to achieve the goal of completing the process by 2026,” he said. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan has secured China's agreement for its WTO accession. Joining the organization is a cornerstone of Uzbekistan’s broader economic reforms aimed at integrating the nation into the global trading system.

Finance Banking Healthcare World Bank IMF Public health IDB

IDB to Fund $156.3 Million for Cancer Hospitals in Turkmenistan

Turkmenportal reported that a Turkmenistan delegation visited Washington DC from October 22 to 26 to participate in the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, along with related events. During the visit, representatives of Turkmenistan's financial and banking sector engaged in bilateral discussions with foreign partners. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has approved $156.3 million in funding to build three specialized cancer treatment hospitals in Turkmenistan. These modern facilities will be located in Balkanabad, Turkmenabad, and Mari, with a combined capacity to serve over 11,750 patients. The agreement was signed in a meeting between IDB President Muhammad Al Jasser and Rahimberdi Jepbarov, Chairman of the State Bank for Foreign Economic Affairs of Turkmenistan. Meanwhile, on October 24, Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, in partnership with Nobel Almaty Pharmaceutical Factory, launched the production of innovative drugs in Almaty, Kazakhstan. This initiative is part of an agreement between Roche, Kazakhstan’s SK-Pharmacy, Nobel, and the Kazakh Research Institute of Oncology and Radiology, supported by Kazakh Invest. Under this collaboration, Roche will locally produce three biotechnological drugs to treat HER2-positive breast cancer, a highly aggressive form affecting up to 20% of breast cancer patients in Kazakhstan.

Economy Economic Growth IMF

IMF: Uzbekistan’s Economy Is Growing, but Reforms and Stability Are Key

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the forecasts for Uzbekistan's economy are optimistic. The economy continues to grow actively; however, risks and opportunities remain. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and continuing to implement structural reforms is necessary to sustain high growth rates, restore buffer stocks, and protect against external shocks. The economy grew by 6.4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Due to an increase in energy prices in early May, overall inflation increased from 8% at the end of April to around 10.5% recently. The underlying inflation rate rose more moderately, reaching 7% in August, up by one percentage point since June. Remittances increased by 32% in the first seven months of 2024, and international reserves are still substantial, covering 9.5 months of imports as of August. Economic growth is expected to stay above 5.5% this year and next, driven by strong investments and reforms. Inflation is predicted to gradually decline due to tighter monetary and fiscal policies and the fading impact of energy price hikes. The current account deficit is expected to decrease to 6.25% of GDP in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025, supported by strong exports, remittances, and fewer large machinery imports. Risks include regional challenges, fluctuating commodity prices, a possible global slowdown, and issues with state-owned enterprises or partnerships. Opportunities may come from increased financial flows, remittances, and higher gold prices. The impact of energy price hikes in May 2024 and wage increases in September-October 2024 could lead to higher inflation. Experts recommend that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan keep interest rates high until there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing. The bank should also be prepared to raise rates further if inflation rises more than expected.

USAID Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation Strategy IMF Economy Climate Emergency Environmental Awareness

Climate Crisis May Drastically Reduce Production in Central Asia

Central Asia may face serious economic losses due to climate change, which may reach a 6.5% annual decline in production by 2060. These figures were announced by Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at the “New Economic Challenges for Long-Term Development” forum. According to Bo, the Caucasus and Central Asia region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Soaring temperatures and increasing frequency of droughts and floods are reducing crops, destroying infrastructure, and lowering living standards. “According to IMF estimates, if no action is taken to slow down climate change, Central Asia will lose up to 6.5% of its output annually by 2060,” Bo said. He noted that possible losses could be reduced with joint actions such as reducing carbon emissions, transitioning to a green economy, and adapting to changing climate conditions. As an example, Bo noted the efforts of Kyrgyzstan, that has already started to increase electricity tariffs and reduce energy subsidies, allowing the country to adapt to climate challenges and create new jobs in the “green” sector. Many Central Asian countries are taking steps to reform the energy sector and introduce “green” technologies. For example, Kazakhstan is actively cooperating with several countries to develop renewable energy and reform the energy sector. One key example is the partnership with the United States under the USAID Power Central Asia program. This initiative supports Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries in modernizing energy markets, introducing clean energy, and encouraging private investment in renewable energy. Uzbekistan is undergoing a major reform of its energy system to reduce subsidies and promote renewable energy. The country plans to increase the share of renewable energy to 25% by 2030, which includes solar and wind energy projects. These measures will help Uzbekistan improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In Tajikistan, USAID is implementing the Power Central Asia program, which supports energy cooperation in the region and encourages using renewable energy to help reduce dependence on fossil fuels and modernize energy systems.