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Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Records Double-Digit Growth as Inflation Stays Above 11%

Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in the first seven months of 2026, but households also faced double-digit inflation. Annual price growth reached 11.5% in July. The latest poverty figures show that 24% of the population remained below the national poverty line in 2025. According to the latest macroeconomic review by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the expansion has been driven primarily by a surge in investment and strong consumer demand. Kyrgyzstan’s growth rate exceeded those reported by several Central Asian neighbors, although the figures cover different periods. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in January–July. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan grew by 8.5% and 8.2%, respectively, in the first half of the year. The EDB forecasts growth of 10.2% for Kyrgyzstan over 2026 as a whole. Average real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose by 15.3% in January–June. This indicates stronger purchasing power among wage earners on average, but does not establish an improvement across all households. Investment increased by 58.8% over the first seven months. Budget financing for investment increased by about 70%, while bank financing rose to 4.3 times its previous level. Fixed-capital investment financed by foreign direct investment rose to 15.3 times its previous level. Budget revenues also increased by 48.8% in the first half of the year, while the republican budget recorded a surplus equivalent to 6.1% of GDP. Price Growth Remains in Double Digits Annual inflation reached 11.5% in July, up from 11% a month earlier. The pressure is visible in everyday purchases. In July alone, average prices for horsemeat rose by 5.4%, lamb by 4%, and beef by 3.9%, although potatoes became cheaper. Housing and utility costs were also rising rapidly, with annual inflation in that category reaching 11.2%. Fuel prices are another source of pressure. The National Bank says higher global oil prices, amid the conflict in the Middle East and concerns over petroleum supplies, have raised the cost of imported fuel. Those increases then feed into transport and production costs across the economy. By August 24, the National Bank put annual inflation at 11.7%, with prices up 7.3% since the start of the year. On the same day, it kept its policy rate at 12%. The central bank cited persistent inflationary pressure, including higher import costs and production expenses. Its inflation target range is 5%–7%. The EDB expects inflation to end 2026 at about 11.5%, still well above that range. IMF Proposes Changes to Public-Sector Pay The International Monetary Fund has also examined public-sector compensation. In a technical assistance report published on September 2, it notes pay raises of 50% for doctors and 25% for nurses in 2024. The report also records a 63% increase in remuneration for the social sector in 2026. According to the IMF, large, infrequent pay increases can add to inflationary pressures and make government spending more difficult to manage. The IMF recommends moving away from large, episodic increases toward more regular salary adjustments that account for inflation, available fiscal space, and labor market conditions. This would make wage growth and government...

Growth Forecasts

Why Central Asia Growth Forecasts Differ So Sharply

How fast can Central Asia continue to grow? The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) give markedly different answers. The contrast is sharpest in Kyrgyzstan, where the EDB expects another year of double-digit growth, while the IMF sees a much more pronounced slowdown. Both institutions are looking at the same countries and have access to broadly the same set of macroeconomic data. Their forecasts, however, reflect different assessments of how much of Central Asia’s recent momentum can be sustained. The EDB expects strong investment to keep growth high, while the IMF is more cautious about how long the recent pace of expansion can continue. The EDB is itself a regional development institution. It was established by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006, with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan later becoming shareholders. Uzbekistan joined the bank in 2025. The EDB is headquartered in Almaty. The comparison covers the four Central Asian states that are EDB members; Turkmenistan is not included. Its latest forecast for Central Asia is optimistic. In 2026, the EDB expects growth of 10.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% in Tajikistan, 7.9% in Uzbekistan, and 5.5% in Kazakhstan. The region’s economy as a whole is expected to grow by more than 6.5%, with its combined GDP exceeding $600 billion for the first time. The IMF gives lower figures. Its latest available country projections put 2026 growth at 4.6% for Kazakhstan, 6.8% for Uzbekistan, 6.1% for Kyrgyzstan, and 6.0% for Tajikistan. These projections were published at different times rather than as a single set of four country forecasts. The largest gap is in Kyrgyzstan, where the forecasts differ by 4.1 percentage points, but there are nevertheless modest percentage point gaps between the forecasts for Tajikistan (2.3), Uzbekistan (1.1), and Kazakhstan (0.9). These differences are large enough to raise the question: why the difference in expectations? Part of the answer lies in how the institutions assess the effect of a more uncertain global economy. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its July update said the conflict in the Middle East was weighing particularly heavily on energy importers and warned that renewed conflict or financial-market disruption could weaken the outlook. For the four countries, this means different things. Kazakhstan exports oil and benefits from high prices, although it also depends on the condition of export routes and external demand. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan import a significant share of their fuel, while their economies are closely linked to migrant remittances. Uzbekistan has a larger domestic market and its own resource base. Kazakhstan illustrates the logic of the IMF forecast particularly well. Its GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025, one of its strongest performances in recent years. The Fund does not expect that surge to be repeated. Oil production is expected to stabilize after last year’s increase, with growth slowing to 4.6% in 2026, according to the IMF forecast. This does not mean that the Fund attributes everything to oil. Domestic demand remains strong,...

International Monetary Fund

IMF Growth Forecast for Uzbekistan Warns of Inflation and Global Risks

Uzbekistan’s economy performed strongly in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting growth across sectors. Inflation fell and the fiscal deficit narrowed. The Fund urged policymakers to keep monetary policy tight and continue reforms as geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty add risks. Uzbekistan’s real GDP expanded by 7.7% in 2025, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment. The unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year to 4.8%. Growth was supported by rapid expansion in services and construction. Consumer price inflation declined from 9.8% at the end of 2024 to 7.3% at the end of 2025. The IMF attributed the improvement to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in 2024 and the appreciation of the Uzbek som against the U.S. dollar. Tight monetary policy by the Central Bank also helped bring down inflation. Core inflation declined during the year. External balances improved as the current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP. Strong exports and remittance inflows supported the decline. High commodity prices also helped. International reserves remained at comfortable levels, equivalent to around 13 months of imports. The fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s target of 3%. The IMF expects economic growth to remain resilient in 2026, forecasting GDP growth of 6.8%. Continued reforms and investment are expected to support activity. Remittances and elevated gold prices should also help sustain growth. The Fund projects growth will moderate to around 6% in 2027 as domestic demand gradually slows. Despite the positive outlook, risks have increased because of the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy. Uzbekistan has limited direct trade and remittance links with countries affected by the conflict. However, higher oil prices and trade disruptions could affect the country indirectly through key trading partners. Weaker global growth could add further pressure. The IMF warned that inflation is likely to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026. Higher global oil prices, combined with strong domestic demand, could slow disinflation. The Fund recommended that the Central Bank keep its policy rate at a restrictive level and tighten monetary policy further if inflationary pressures persist. The Fund advised the government to avoid spending increases beyond those already planned in the budget. Any support measures linked to the Middle East conflict should be temporary and targeted toward vulnerable groups, rather than broad subsidies or price controls. The IMF called for faster privatization of state-owned commercial banks and enterprises. It also recommended stronger corporate governance and continued work to improve fiscal transparency and debt management. The Fund highlighted labor market challenges, including low female labor force participation and skills mismatches. High levels of informal employment remain another concern. Further progress in governance reform and competition policy could help attract additional private investment. The IMF said Uzbekistan’s commitments linked to accession to the World Trade Organization could also support long-term economic growth. The country enters 2026 from a position of economic strength, but maintaining stability and continuing...

TCA Interviews

Kyrgyz Minister Sydykov Courts Investment in Washington

On the occasion of the annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington this week, the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Adylbek Kasymaliev, led a delegation to Washington D.C. for World Bank and IMF meetings, the Department of State Annual Bilateral Consultations, a meeting with Secretary of State Rubio, Deputy Secretary Landau and Under Secretary Hooker, as well as a number of other constructive dialogues and engagements with scholars, researchers, and authors. This trip marks the second high-level U.S. visit in a year, signaling Washington’s strategic interest and Kyrgyzstan’s willingness to deepen cooperation. Bakyt Sydykov, Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Economy and Commerce, accompanied the Prime Minister. The delegation’s visit to Washington reinforces President Sadyr Japarov’s statement to President Donald Trump during the November 2025 C5+1 Summit, “I am confident that this event will provide an excellent opportunity for U.S. businesses to expand cooperation in sectors such as agriculture, e-commerce, information technology, transportation and logistics, tourism, and banking.” Following Japarov’s lead, Sydykov is actively engaging private and multilateral partners; state and Commerce meetings are meant to keep things moving and steady investor confidence. This shift towards deeper diplomatic, investment, and development ties is striking and certainly welcome in Washington. The shift reflects both an evolving Central Asian geopolitical landscape, post-Afghanistan dynamics, economic needs, diversification goals, and troubles in West Asia. Deeper engagement is also driven by ambitions to enhance regional transport and logistics integration. Kyrgyzstan’s approach departs from zero-sum logic, prioritizing win-win pragmatism and mutual gains. Minister Sydykov In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Minister Sydykov said that this visit builds on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent official mission to Bishkek (March 18–April 1, 2026) and that “our banking sector is strong and well capitalized, as affirmed by the IMF, and we are well prepared against risk, enhancing oversight in the context of global volatility.” Commenting on the government’s fiscal management following the IMF’s guidance, Sydykov said: “To expand fiscal flexibility, we are mobilizing revenue across a range of standard taxation measures and raising expenditure efficiency with responsible internal wage policies, rationalized energy subsidies, and public investment management. We are pinpointing more prudent debt management measures, enhancing risk oversight, and rolling out tracking metrics to uphold long-term sustainability and credibility.” ⁠Looking forward, Sydykov noted that Kyrgyzstan is monitoring outlook risks related to external volatility, while also insisting that “we are working to hold down domestic inflation – always a challenge with rapid economic growth – and lower fiscal pressures. We assess that these endogenous variables remain manageable, even with increased exposure to cross-border trade and capital flows. While external volatility lies beyond our direct control, Kyrgyzstan is working with the IMF, other multilaterals, and domestic banks to maintain and build resilience. We are therefore strengthening buffers, recalibrating policies, and advancing accounting reforms to support performance and sustainable growth.” Responding to the ADB’s latest forecasts, Sydykov said Kyrgyzstan’s economy is moving toward greater stability and growth. After an 11.1% surge in 2025, growth is expected to slow to 8.9% in 2026 and 8.4%...

Economy

Uzbekistan’s Economy to Remain Strong in 2026, IMF Forecasts 6.8% Growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest assessment of Uzbekistan’s economy, reporting strong growth in 2025 alongside recommendations for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms. According to the IMF, Uzbekistan’s real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, driven by robust domestic consumption and investment. Growth was broad-based, with the services and construction sectors expanding the fastest. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. Inflation showed a downward trend, with annual consumer price growth falling to 7.3% by the end of 2025, compared to 9.8% a year earlier. The IMF attributed this to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in May 2024, a stronger national currency, and what it described as an “appropriately tight monetary policy stance.” Core inflation also declined over the same period. External balances improved. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP, supported by strong exports and remittance inflows. International reserves remained stable, covering around 13 months of imports, while the fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s 3% target. “The economic outlook remains favorable,” the IMF said, while pointing to increasing global uncertainties, particularly linked to geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East. Economic growth is projected at 6.8% in 2026, before moderating to around 6% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026, partly due to higher global oil prices, before easing toward the target level in 2027. The IMF stressed that monetary policy should remain focused on price stability, noting that the policy rate has been held at 14% since March 2025. The report also highlighted risks related to global economic conditions, including trade disruptions and commodity price volatility, as well as domestic challenges such as potential pressure for increased public spending and vulnerabilities linked to state-owned enterprises. The IMF recommended limiting additional government spending in 2026 to avoid fuelling inflation. It also called for targeted social support measures instead of broad subsidies, alongside continued reforms in tax policy, public financial management, and state-owned enterprises. Further recommendations included accelerating the privatisation of state-owned banks, strengthening financial sector oversight, and improving governance standards. The IMF also emphasised the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb external shocks. The findings build on last year’s IMF assessment, which reported 7.6% growth in the first nine months of 2025, also driven by strong consumption and investment, while inflation showed signs of easing.

Economy

IMF Warns of Risks for Rapidly Growing Kyrgyz Economy

Kyrgyzstan continues to record strong economic growth and rising per capita income. At the same time, elevated inflation above the National Bank’s 5%-7% target range, rapid credit expansion, strong wage growth, and high liquidity point to signs of economic overheating, requiring timely macroeconomic policy adjustments. These are the key points of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement following consultations with Kyrgyz authorities in Bishkek between March 18 and April 1. The IMF noted that after recording fiscal surpluses between 2023 and 2025, the overall fiscal balance is projected to shift into deficit in 2026, reflecting higher public-sector wages and increased capital spending. The mission also emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on bringing inflation back within the National Bank’s target range. Strengthening the central bank’s independence and governance remains critical to safeguarding price stability. Repeated transfers of National Bank profits to the state budget, while capital remains below statutory thresholds, risk undermining institutional credibility and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The IMF urged the authorities to uphold the provisions of the constitutional law governing the National Bank and to suspend regular profit transfers until capital is adequately restored. According to the IMF, Kyrgyzstan’s banking sector is stable, well capitalized, and liquid. However, nonperforming loans remain elevated, and rapid credit growth could increase vulnerabilities if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. The mission stressed that structural reforms remain essential to support sustainable and inclusive growth. These should focus on strengthening governance, reducing the state’s role in the economy, and fostering private-sector-led development. Key priorities include reforming state-owned enterprises, improving the business environment and competition, strengthening the rule of law and anti-corruption efforts, and addressing informality and labor market rigidities. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 11.1% in 2025, while inflation reached 9.4%. The government aims to sustain economic growth under the National Development Program through 2030, targeting average annual GDP growth of 8%, total GDP of at least $30 billion, and GDP per capita of $4,500. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasts continued strong growth, projecting GDP expansion of 8.9% in 2026 and 8.4% in 2027, following 11.1% growth in 2025. Growth is expected to moderate as construction and trade normalize, although domestic demand will remain the main driver, supported by resilient remittance inflows and sustained investment under the National Development Program. ADB projects inflation to rise to 10.3% in 2026 before easing to 8.5% in 2027, driven by strong domestic demand and planned increases in electricity and heating tariffs. Concerns about overheating are not new. A July 2025 meeting at the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce highlighted structural imbalances, including a widening gap between income growth and labor productivity, rising inflation, labor shortages, increased public spending, and rapid growth in consumer lending. Economist Azamat Akeneev told 24.kg that sustainable growth is not possible without improvements in labor productivity and exports. “If the economy grows through consumption and government spending rather than competitiveness and expansion into foreign markets, sooner or later an adjustment phase...