Middle East conflict - The Times Of Central Asia

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Nuclear Diplomacy

Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Diplomacy Offers Lessons for Iran Crisis

Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran have yet to resolve a key issue: what will happen to the enriched uranium currently held by a country engulfed in conflict. Beyond political considerations, there are also significant technical challenges, namely, how such material could be safely removed from Iran if an agreement is reached. Kazakhstan, however, has previously carried out a unique operation of this kind, later documented in detail through U.S. and Kazakh accounts, and has a long track record of constructive engagement in nuclear diplomacy. The Uranium Question The parties to the conflict, the United States, Israel, and Iran, remain deeply divided on core issues. Various countries, including Pakistan, have been involved as mediators. At the same time, the situation is complicated by broader military and economic tensions, including the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian oil exports and Iran’s continuing obstruction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz dominates headlines, often diverting attention from the central issue: the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile. Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had discussed a possible arrangement involving the release of frozen Iranian funds, with a figure of $20 billion under discussion. One U.S. official described that figure as a U.S. proposal, while U.S. President Donald Trump later denied that any money would change hands. IAEA-linked figures put Iran’s stockpile at about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons-grade levels if further enriched. Trump has expressed confidence that Iran will agree to a deal and that the uranium can be removed. Iranian officials, however, have rejected this claim, stating that they do not intend to transfer enriched uranium to the United States or any other country. Tokayev’s Position On April 17, 2026, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the issue during a diplomatic forum in Antalya, warning that excessive focus on trade routes and the Strait of Hormuz risks overshadowing the core problem, the nuclear issue. “The essence of the problem lies in the proliferation of nuclear technologies and nuclear weapons. This must be the central topic of negotiations when it comes to the conflict around Iran,” Tokayev said. Experts have since highlighted the complexity of the task facing policymakers: not only negotiating terms but physically removing enriched uranium from Iran. This would involve dealing with potentially damaged facilities, ensuring security, deploying specialist teams, defining transport routes, establishing international oversight, and determining a final destination for the material. Against this backdrop, Tokayev’s remarks carry particular weight. While the United States is reported to be insisting not only on limiting future enrichment but also on transferring existing stockpiles, Iran is seeking to separate the nuclear issue from the broader regional crisis. Tokayev, by contrast, has emphasized that energy and shipping disruptions are symptoms of a deeper conflict, with the nuclear issue at its core. Operation Sapphire Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan inherited the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, after Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. The country was also...

Fuel prices

Fuel Prices Surge in Tajikistan Amid Middle East Conflict

Fuel prices at gas stations in Dushanbe have risen sharply since early March, increasing on average by 8-9%. The increase has been driven by domestic factors as well as adverse developments in the global energy market. The most widely used AI-92 gasoline has risen in price from $1.05 to $1.13 per liter. Diesel has followed a similar trend, increasing from $1.14 to $1.24 per liter. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have risen more modestly, by about 6%, to $0.62 per liter. Prices also vary by location, with drivers noting that fuel in central Dushanbe is traditionally more expensive than in outlying areas. Suppliers attribute the increases to higher prices from producers, but the situation largely depends on external supply chains. Russia remains the primary source of petroleum products for Tajikistan. In 2025, the country imported more than 1.2 million tonnes of fuel and LPG from Russia, accounting for over 70% of total imports. Supplies also come from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, though their share is significantly smaller. According to official statistics, Tajikistan imported more than 325,000 metric tons of petroleum products in the first quarter of this year, valued at over $251 million, or approximately $772 per metric ton. Compared with the same period last year, import volumes increased by 11.4%, while their total value rose by 8.6%. Experts say external factors are the main driver of rising prices. They point to international media reports that the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has triggered a chain reaction in the fuel market, affecting the supply chain from crude oil to refining and retail prices. A key factor has been disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass. At the same time, price trends have varied significantly across countries. Al Jazeera reported that fuel prices rose by nearly 70% in Cambodia, 50% in Vietnam, 35% in Nigeria, 33% in Laos, and 28% in Canada. In Central Asia, however, price increases have been more moderate, ranging from 2% to 5% in March and April. In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, prices have remained largely stable, which analysts attribute to pricing policies by Russian producers and the availability of domestic fuel supplies.

Middle East Crisis

Central Asia Welcomes Ceasefire, Urges Talks as Energy Risks Persist

Central Asian governments have cautiously welcomed the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, describing it as a necessary pause in a conflict that has already begun to affect regional stability, trade, and energy flows. Across the region, official statements struck a consistent balance: support for the truce, alongside calls to translate it quickly into negotiations rather than allow it to become a temporary pause in hostilities. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the agreement as a “ceasefire and truce” reached through international mediation, including efforts involving Pakistan’s leadership. According to the presidential press service, Tokayev said that “this agreement became possible due to the goodwill and wisdom of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the senior leadership of Iran, as well as all countries involved in the military conflict.” Tokayev went on to express his hope that the agreement would prove sustainable and contribute to global trade and economic stability. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry described the ceasefire as an “important step toward de-escalating tensions” and stressed that it should serve as a pathway to a broader political settlement. Tashkent called for “all parties to exercise restraint, [and] refrain from actions that could further escalate the situation, warning that further escalation risks widening the conflict and undermining regional stability. The statement reaffirmed Uzbekistan's “unwavering position on the need to resolve conflicts exclusively by peaceful means in strict accordance with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.” Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry also welcomed the agreement, expressing hope that the ceasefire would open the way to a comprehensive and long-term peace. Dushanbe emphasized that the conflict has “no military solution and its continuation will only worsen the already difficult situation in the Middle East and cause colossal damage to all countries in the region.” The statement urged all parties to “abandon the use of force” and use political and diplomatic mechanisms in accordance with international law and the UN Charter. Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry said it “welcomes the achievement of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East,” highlighting the role of Pakistan’s mediation efforts in reducing tensions. Bishkek reaffirmed that disputes must be resolved exclusively through political and diplomatic means on the basis of the UN Charter and international law, and expressed its “hope for achieving sustainable and long-term peace in the region.” Turkmenistan had not issued an official public statement on the ceasefire at the time of publication, in line with its longstanding policy of neutrality and cautious approach to external conflicts. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry also welcomed the “announced ceasefire” and praised the efforts of mediators who helped broker the agreement. Baku called on all parties to “engage in productive dialogue aimed at resolving existing problems and strengthening mutual trust” and signaled its readiness to “support initiatives aimed at strengthening lasting peace, security, and cooperation in the region.” The convergence in tone reflects more than diplomatic routine. The conflict has already spilled into Central Asia’s political and humanitarian agenda, prompting coordination on evacuations, aid deliveries, and contingency planning....

Oil Supply

Middle East Crisis: Kazakhstan Could Become an Alternative Supplier of Petroleum Products to Asia

The two-week ceasefire announced after Pakistani mediation between Iran and the U.S. has reduced the risk of immediate escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, but disruptions to one of the key routes of global oil trade have already triggered structural changes in energy markets. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are increasingly being viewed as alternative suppliers of hydrocarbons, at least from the perspective of South Korea and Japan. Despite the agreement on a two-week pause, Iran has made it clear that it retains control over shipping in the strait, including the potential to impose restrictions and coordinate tanker movements with its military. This has heightened concerns among importers, many of whom depend heavily on this route. The most notable shift is taking place in Asia. South Korea, which receives about 61% of its crude imports and 54% of its naphtha imports through the Strait of Hormuz, is sending a high-level delegation to Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia to seek alternative sources of supply. Talks in Astana are expected to focus on oil and naphtha for industrial use. South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, has proven to be among the most vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Seoul is taking urgent diplomatic and economic measures, with Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik traveling to Kazakhstan as a special envoy for strategic economic cooperation. The delegation includes representatives from relevant ministries and major energy companies, underscoring the urgency of the effort. The purpose of the visit is not only to address a potential short-term shortfall but also to establish sustainable alternative supply channels. South Korea has already secured a 24 million-barrel supply deal with the UAE, and shipments are already arriving at its ports, though officials say that volume is still insufficient given the ongoing instability. The government is coordinating efforts with private fuel importers and logistics operators to ensure uninterrupted supplies until tankers arrive at the country’s ports. Kazakhstan, which possesses large oil fields including Kashagan, is emerging as a key candidate to partially replace Middle Eastern volumes. However, geography imposes clear limitations: oil from the region requires more complex logistics, including transit across the Caspian Sea and onward through the Caucasus or the Black Sea. This is compounded by a projected decline in the country’s oil production. In March, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that output could fall by 2-4 million tons by the end of 2026 due to disruptions linked to attacks on infrastructure belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), as well as fires at the Tengiz field. Initial projections placed Kazakhstan’s 2026 oil production at 100.5 million tons, potentially a record level. However, the minister indicated that actual output will most likely fall short of this target. Japan is also reassessing its supply strategy. With more than 90% of its oil traditionally sourced from the Middle East, Tokyo is considering increasing imports from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan through projects involving the national company INPEX. Japanese experts note that oil from...

Peace Talks

Tokayev Proposes Turkestan as Venue for Middle East Peace Talks

Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has called for immediate negotiations to resolve the conflict in the Middle East and proposed the city of Turkestan as a venue for talks. Tokayev made the remarks during a visit to the Turkestan region, warning that escalating conflicts worldwide, including the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, are harming global stability and trade conditions for countries not directly involved in the hostilities. He said the situation in the Middle East has reached a critical stage and that further escalation by Iran, the United States, or Israel would benefit none of the parties. “First and foremost, I call for an end to armed attacks on civilian and economic targets. Then it is necessary to sit down at the negotiating table,” Tokayev said. The president said Kazakhstan is not seeking to mediate in the conflict but is prepared to offer its territory as a neutral platform for negotiations. “I believe such a dialogue could be organized in Turkestan. This would demonstrate the goodwill of the Kazakh people,” Tokayev added, noting that the final decision depends on the parties involved. The choice of Turkestan is both geographic and symbolic. The city is regarded as one of Central Asia’s spiritual centers and an important destination for pilgrims. It is home to the mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yasawi, a prominent Sufi poet and thinker. The structure, commissioned in the 14th century by Amir Timur, adds historical resonance to Tokayev’s proposal and is included on the UNESCO World Heritage List. Turkestan’s historical legacy and religious significance make it a potentially neutral and symbolically meaningful setting for peace talks. The proposal also reflects Kazakhstan’s long-standing effort to position itself as a neutral diplomatic platform. Astana has previously hosted international negotiations, including talks on Syria, and has sought to build a reputation as a venue for dialogue between competing powers. Offering Turkestan, rather than the capital, reinforces both the initiative's symbolic and political neutrality. Tokayev’s proposal comes amid continued escalation in hostilities involving Iran and a U.S.-Israel coalition, which intensified in late February following exchanges of missile strikes and air attacks. For Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states, the conflict carries direct implications. Iran’s status as a Caspian littoral country raises additional security concerns for Kazakhstan’s western regions in the event of further escalation. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on disruptions to regional supply chains and transport routes. Volatility in global oil prices and the risk of disruption across Caspian-linked trade routes add further pressure, underscoring how conflicts far beyond Central Asia’s borders can quickly translate into economic and security risks for the region.