Middle East Crisis - The Times Of Central Asia

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Nuclear Diplomacy

Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Diplomacy Offers Lessons for Iran Crisis

Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran have yet to resolve a key issue: what will happen to the enriched uranium currently held by a country engulfed in conflict. Beyond political considerations, there are also significant technical challenges, namely, how such material could be safely removed from Iran if an agreement is reached. Kazakhstan, however, has previously carried out a unique operation of this kind, later documented in detail through U.S. and Kazakh accounts, and has a long track record of constructive engagement in nuclear diplomacy. The Uranium Question The parties to the conflict, the United States, Israel, and Iran, remain deeply divided on core issues. Various countries, including Pakistan, have been involved as mediators. At the same time, the situation is complicated by broader military and economic tensions, including the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian oil exports and Iran’s continuing obstruction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz dominates headlines, often diverting attention from the central issue: the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile. Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had discussed a possible arrangement involving the release of frozen Iranian funds, with a figure of $20 billion under discussion. One U.S. official described that figure as a U.S. proposal, while U.S. President Donald Trump later denied that any money would change hands. IAEA-linked figures put Iran’s stockpile at about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons-grade levels if further enriched. Trump has expressed confidence that Iran will agree to a deal and that the uranium can be removed. Iranian officials, however, have rejected this claim, stating that they do not intend to transfer enriched uranium to the United States or any other country. Tokayev’s Position On April 17, 2026, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the issue during a diplomatic forum in Antalya, warning that excessive focus on trade routes and the Strait of Hormuz risks overshadowing the core problem, the nuclear issue. “The essence of the problem lies in the proliferation of nuclear technologies and nuclear weapons. This must be the central topic of negotiations when it comes to the conflict around Iran,” Tokayev said. Experts have since highlighted the complexity of the task facing policymakers: not only negotiating terms but physically removing enriched uranium from Iran. This would involve dealing with potentially damaged facilities, ensuring security, deploying specialist teams, defining transport routes, establishing international oversight, and determining a final destination for the material. Against this backdrop, Tokayev’s remarks carry particular weight. While the United States is reported to be insisting not only on limiting future enrichment but also on transferring existing stockpiles, Iran is seeking to separate the nuclear issue from the broader regional crisis. Tokayev, by contrast, has emphasized that energy and shipping disruptions are symptoms of a deeper conflict, with the nuclear issue at its core. Operation Sapphire Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan inherited the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, after Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. The country was also...

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Iran Proposes Defense Cooperation to SCO Partners at Bishkek Meeting

Iran used a Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense meeting in Bishkek to signal that it is ready to share military experience and defense capabilities with other SCO members, giving a sharper geopolitical edge to the gathering hosted by Kyrgyzstan under its current chairmanship of the bloc. The meeting of SCO defense ministers opened on April 28 at the Ala-Archa state residence in Bishkek. Defense officials from the organization’s member states attended, along with SCO Secretary General Nurlan Yermekbayev. Kyrgyzstan’s Defense Minister Ruslan Mukambetov chaired the session. Iran was represented by Deputy Defense Minister Reza Talaei-Nik. In a statement carried by Mehr News Agency, Talaei-Nik said Iran was ready to share its defense weapons capabilities and experience with “independent countries,” especially SCO member states. He also described the SCO as part of a wider shift away from what Tehran called a “unipolar” international order. The remarks came after weeks of fighting between Iran, the United States, and Israel, including Iranian drone and missile strikes on U.S. bases in the region and Israeli sites. A ceasefire announced earlier this month reduced hostilities, but efforts to reach a wider settlement have stalled. Talaei-Nik also used the meeting to frame the recent conflict as a lesson for other states, declaring, “We are ready to share our experiences in defeating America with other members of the organization.” The SCO meeting gave Tehran a platform inside a bloc that now includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Iran became a full member in 2023. The SCO also has a wider circle of observer states and dialogue partners, including 15 dialogue partners listed by the organization’s secretariat. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov received the SCO defense delegations before the ministerial session. He said Kyrgyzstan, as the SCO chair, attaches special importance to practical defense cooperation, including joint exercises, experience-sharing, and stronger coordination. He said agreements reached in Bishkek should strengthen defense cooperation and security across the SCO region. Kyrgyzstan’s SCO chairmanship is being held under the slogan “25 Years of the SCO: Together Towards Sustainable Peace, Development, and Prosperity.” Kyrgyzstan’s Defense Minister Mukambetov said the organization needed solidarity, mutual trust, and collective responsibility to respond to current security challenges. Kyrgyz state agency Kabar said the participants discussed military cooperation, regional security, and joint responses to current threats. The SCO began as a border-security framework. Its roots go back to agreements signed in 1996 and 1997 by Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan on military trust and troop reductions along border areas. Uzbekistan later joined, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was formally founded in 2001. Since then, the bloc has grown into a wider Eurasian platform covering security, defense contacts, counterterrorism, transport, energy, and economic cooperation. Talaei-Nik also held talks with Russian and Belarusian defense officials on the fringes of the Bishkek meeting, with both sides discussing continued cooperation with Tehran. For Central Asian governments, including non-SCO member Turkmenistan, the Bishkek meeting highlighted the pressures facing multi-vector diplomacy. All five have spent years balancing security...

Aviation

Varesh Airlines to Resume Some Tajikistan Flights during Uneasy Ceasefire

Iranian carrier Varesh Airlines says it will resume flights between the Iranian city of Mashhad and Dushanbe, Tajikistan´s capital, on Friday. The planned resumption reflects a partial easing of tensions during a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, though uncertainty remains over any plans for peace talks as well as the prospects for safe shipping in the contested Strait of Hormuz. Mashhad is a northeastern Iranian city near the border with Turkmenistan and a significant hub for trade with Central Asia, which has been disrupted by the Mideast fighting in the past weeks. The city is about 850 kilometers from Dushanbe. “Mashhad - Dushanbe - Mashhad flights will operate from Friday, April 24,” Varesh Airlines said on Instagram. It announced similar plans to reopen the route between Tehran and Muscat, Oman. The Iranian carrier also suspended flights during regional fighting last year. Somon Air, a Tajikistan-based carrier, had said it was increasing the frequency of flights between Dushanbe and Tehran starting early last year. But it also had to suspend Iran flights last month because of the war.

Antalya Diplomacy Forum

Central Asia Came to Antalya With a Clearer Voice and a Wider Agenda

The Antalya Diplomacy Forum, from April 17 to 19, brought together heads of state, foreign ministers, and senior officials at a tense moment in international politics. The official theme, “Mapping Tomorrow, Managing Uncertainties,” reflected the backdrop: war in the Middle East, pressure on trade, and growing doubts about the strength of international institutions. Central Asia did not dominate the gathering, but the region was visible across the program and in the meetings around it. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was the highest-profile regional figure in attendance, while Kyrgyzstan sent Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev, Turkmenistan sent Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, and Tajikistan sent Deputy Foreign Minister Farrukh Sharifzoda. Uzbekistan was also active through Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov in meetings held during the forum dates. The strongest Central Asian intervention came from Tokayev. Speaking at a panel session, he said the United Nations remains indispensable, but also made clear that its present structure is failing to keep up with current crises. “We must honestly acknowledge that the Security Council is the central element in the reform of the United Nations,” he said. He also warned that many key negotiations now take place outside the UN system, in separate capitals and closed rooms, rather than through the institution that was built for that purpose. Tokayev framed the problem in practical terms rather than abstract ones. He said global leaders must approach peace and security “with a strong sense of responsibility,” adding that “we must act more responsibly and exercise restraint.” Tokayev also said Kazakhstan calls on all countries involved in the Iran conflict to cease hostilities while keeping the focus on the core issue of nuclear proliferation. His language matched the line Astana has tried to hold for years: avoid escalation, preserve room for dialogue, and keep diplomatic channels open. Tokayev went further when he turned to the role of what he called “middle powers,” naming Kazakhstan and Türkiye among the states that, in his view, show a high degree of responsibility in both diplomacy and practice. He said it would “not be an exaggeration to say that today middle powers often demonstrate a greater degree of responsibility than major powers represented in the Security Council, which, regrettably, often obstruct the resolution of key global issues.” That was one of the sharper lines delivered at the summit. It also showed how Kazakhstan now wants to place itself in the world: not as a passive actor caught between larger powers, but as a state that can help steady an increasingly unstable system. Türkiye was central to that framing. At the start of his remarks, Tokayev praised President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s role in the region and said Kazakhstan was looking forward to Erdoğan’s state visit next month. That also reflects a broader trend of closer coordination between Kazakhstan and Türkiye, including in the Trans-Caspian transport route (Middle Corridor) and shifting Caspian dynamics. Uzbekistan approached the summit in Antalya differently. Tashkent did not have a presidential intervention on the main stage, but it used the gathering for...

Antalya Diplomacy Forum

At Antalya Forum, Tokayev Delivers a Stark Warning on Iran and the UN

Last week, the Turkish resort city of Antalya hosted the fifth annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum. Particular attention was drawn to the speech by Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who once again raised the issue of reforming the United Nations. Held since 2021 at the initiative of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the forum brings together political leaders, diplomats, experts, business representatives, media, and civil society. It serves as a platform for bilateral and multilateral contacts, political consultations, and informal diplomacy. This year, alongside Turkey and Kazakhstan, the forum was attended by delegations from Azerbaijan, Qatar, Pakistan, Syria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, all led by their respective heads of state. A widely circulated photograph from the opening ceremony, showing Erdoğan and Tokayev in conversation, was interpreted by some observers as reflecting the Kazakh president’s standing and the level of engagement between the two leaders. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev pointed to what he described as a convergence in messaging between the two presidents. “Opening the forum, President Erdoğan stated that ‘the world is experiencing a crisis of direction alongside a crisis of order.’ He noted that ‘mechanisms designed to protect human rights and international security remain ineffective and often inactive in the face of serious violations.’ Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, judging by his speech, sought, drawing on his experience and position, to respond to the concerns expressed by the Turkish and other leaders,” Ashimbayev said. Another Kazakh political analyst, Andrey Chebotarev, highlighted the broader diplomatic context, noting that Erdoğan is expected to pay a state visit to Kazakhstan on May 14. “In addition to bilateral cooperation, this visit is linked to the upcoming informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States in the city of Turkestan. It is worth recalling that following the previous informal OTS summit, held online on March 31, 2021, Turkestan was officially recognized as the spiritual capital of the Turkic world. Holding a similar summit in person is intended to underscore both the city’s significance and Kazakhstan’s role within the Turkic community,” Chebotarev said. Analyzing Tokayev’s remarks, Chebotarev also pointed to what he described as a consolidation of Kazakhstan’s position on the situation in the Middle East, particularly in the context of tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. “Astana had previously signaled its distancing from all parties to the conflict, while expressing solidarity with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, which, despite not being direct participants, were affected by strikes linked to the broader confrontation. In this context, the Kazakh president’s call for restraint and a cessation of hostilities is not merely an expression of neutrality but reflects the position of an active international actor seeking a diplomatic resolution,” he said. One of the central elements of Tokayev’s speech was his assessment of developments surrounding Iran. He called for greater awareness of global dynamics and emphasized the need to address root causes. “The core issue is the proliferation of nuclear technologies and nuclear weapons. This must be...

Iran

Central Asia Recalculates as the Iran War Enters a New Phase

Central Asia’s first response to the Iran war was public and urgent. Governments organized evacuations, welcomed a ceasefire, and watched the Strait of Hormuz because the region’s trade routes, fuel costs, and food prices were already under pressure. The next phase looks different. Following the April 12 collapse of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad, Washington moved to block maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports. That step does not formally close Hormuz to all shipping, but it pushes the crisis into a more serious phase for any country or company still treating Iran as a viable corridor. That distinction is important in Central Asia because the region does not need a formal legal closure of Hormuz to feel the shock. It only needs insurers, banks, freight forwarders, airlines, and traders to decide that the southern option has become too risky for routine planning. That process was already underway. The route through Iran had come under strain in southern corridor traffic, food systems, and in the wider pricing of regional connectivity. A U.S. move against Iranian ports is likely to reinforce that view. Official statements across Central Asia still reflect the ceasefire moment more than the latest escalation. On April 8, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev welcomed the truce and said he hoped it would support global trade and prosperity. Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry also welcomed the ceasefire and praised efforts to reduce tensions. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry did the same, calling the truce an “important step toward de-escalating tensions,” and stressing that it should serve as a pathway to a broader political settlement. Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry also welcomed the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, had already taken a practical line, saying on March 4 that it was keeping all international checkpoints open and providing passage for foreign citizens, vehicles, and rail stock across the Turkmen-Iranian border. Since then, public messaging has lagged behind the latest escalation. By April 13, Qazinform’s foreign news flow had shifted to the failed Islamabad talks and Trump’s blockade order, while the latest publicly visible official positions elsewhere in the region still reflected the April 8 ceasefire. That does not mean backchannel diplomacy has stopped, but it does suggest that Central Asian governments prefer caution in public as the conflict shifts from direct strikes to pressure on shipping and trade. For the region, the economic logic is now clearer than the politics. Approximately 20% of global oil supplies and one-third of global fertilizer trade move through the Strait of Hormuz, while urea prices surged by almost 46% between February and March 2026. The World Bank’s April Europe and Central Asia Economic Update said growth in the developing economies of Europe and Central Asia is expected to slow to 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.6% in 2025, as the Middle East conflict, wider geopolitical tension, and trade fragmentation weigh on the region. Those pressures were already significant. The collapse of the main post-ceasefire diplomatic effort, followed by oil rising back above $100 a barrel, has made them harder...