Moody’s Assigns Kyrgyzstan First-Ever Positive Outlook

For the first time, international credit rating agency Moody’s has assigned Kyrgyzstan a positive outlook, while reaffirming the country’s sovereign credit rating at B3. According to the Ministry of Finance, the shift reflects Kyrgyzstan’s stable economic growth. Finance Minister Almaz Baketaev met with Moody’s Managing Director David Aldrich on the eve of the announcement. Discussions covered areas of future cooperation, Kyrgyzstan’s investment profile, strategies for attracting external financing, and the country's credit trajectory. “Moody’s has revised its outlook on the Kyrgyz Republic’s sovereign credit rating from stable to positive, confirming the long-term rating at B3. The economy is demonstrating steady growth: real GDP for January to July 2025 rose by 11.5%,” the Ministry of Finance stated. “In May 2025, Kyrgyzstan successfully issued its first Eurobonds, raising $700 million. Investor demand exceeded supply threefold, with a five-year maturity and a 7.75% coupon rate.” The ministry noted that all proceeds from the Eurobond issuance have been placed in a dedicated account to manage public debt responsibly. Kyrgyzstan’s B3 rating has remained unchanged in recent years. While Moody’s upgraded the country’s outlook from negative to stable in 2024, this year marks the first time the outlook has been revised to positive. The Ministry of Economy described the revised outlook as recognition of the government’s efforts to stabilize and grow the economy. “The updated forecast reflects improvements in Kyrgyzstan’s macroeconomic and fiscal indicators, as well as stronger long-term development potential,” the ministry noted. “These results stem from key reforms, economic diversification, and sustained infrastructure investment.” According to official figures, all sectors of the economy posted growth in the first half of 2025. Construction recorded the highest increase at 45% since the start of the year, while agriculture saw the most modest growth at 3.8%. Total GDP for the first six months of the year amounted to 711 billion soms.

Moody’s Upgrades Outlook on Uzbekistan’s Credit Rating to Positive

Moody’s Ratings has revised Uzbekistan’s credit outlook from stable to positive, while affirming its long-term issuer rating at Ba3, a level that denotes speculative or non-investment grade status. The improved outlook reflects increased confidence in the country’s ongoing structural reforms and governance improvements. According to Moody’s, Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen public sector governance and liberalize key sectors such as energy could enhance policy effectiveness and lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth. Recent steps include restructuring the supervisory boards of all state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and banks, with an increased presence of independent members. The government is also advancing legislation on conflict of interest, asset declaration, and whistleblower protections, measures that signal a broader commitment to transparency. The energy sector reforms highlight the government's readiness to undertake challenging but necessary changes. Tariffs have risen sharply as part of a phased plan to achieve full cost recovery by 2027-2028. While inflationary pressures persist, the government has sought to mitigate their impact through targeted increases in public sector wages and pensions and by scaling back subsidies. Privatization remains central to Uzbekistan’s reform strategy. The government plans to reduce the state’s share in the banking sector from 65% to 46%, following the successful privatization of Ipoteka Bank. The recently established National Investment Fund, managed by Franklin Templeton, will oversee holdings in 18 major enterprises. Initial public offerings are planned for several large firms, including Navoi, Uzbekistan’s largest taxpayer. Moody’s forecasts GDP growth of 5.8% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, supported by increased investment in energy and transport infrastructure under the Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy and rising levels of foreign direct investment. The fiscal deficit declined to 3.3% of GDP in 2024 and is projected to remain below 3% in the coming years. Although Uzbekistan’s public debt remains moderate, liabilities linked to SOE borrowing and public-private partnership (PPP) projects are increasing. To manage these risks, the government has imposed caps on new PPPs and now requires official approval for external borrowing by state-owned entities. Moody’s also pointed to persistent institutional weaknesses, low per capita income, and governance concerns, as well as regional geopolitical risks. However, the agency noted that if current reform momentum continues and economic indicators improve further, an upgrade to the country’s credit rating is possible. Uzbekistan’s credit profile is bolstered by its diversified economy, strong growth outlook, and prudent fiscal management. With continued reforms and growing investor confidence, the country appears increasingly well-positioned for long-term economic stability.