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Kazakhstan has pledged to compensate for excess oil production in 2024, reaffirming its commitment to the OPEC+ agreements. At the 58th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, Kazakh representatives confirmed the country's readiness to take necessary measures in 2025 and 2026 to meet its obligations under the OPEC+ framework. "Despite increased production this year due to the expansion of the Tengiz field, Kazakhstan remains committed to the OPEC+ agreement and will engage in negotiations with partners in accordance with international law," the Ministry of Energy stated. OPEC+ Efforts to Stabilize the Market The February 3 meeting marked the first OPEC+ gathering of 2025. Participating ministers emphasized that voluntary production cuts, implemented by several member states in December 2024, have contributed to oil market stability. Previously, on December 5, 2024, OPEC+ agreed to extend voluntary oil production limits of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2025. The decision was made in response to a seasonal slowdown in demand during the winter months. A gradual easing of restrictions is expected to continue until September 2026. The next OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting is scheduled for April 5.
Kazakhstan has shipped its first batch of oil from the Kashagan field to the Azerbaijani port of Baku, marking a significant step in the country’s efforts to diversify its export routes. The shipment was confirmed by the national oil company KazMunayGas (KMG). The tanker Taraz, carrying Kashagan oil, departed from the port of Aktau and is en route to Azerbaijan. Upon arrival in Baku, the oil will be transported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline system to the Mediterranean Sea. The export operation is being carried out by KMG Kashagan B.V., a subsidiary of JSC NC KazMunayGas, which manages Kazakhstan’s share in the North Caspian Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). This initiative aligns with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s directive for KazMunayGas to develop alternative hydrocarbon export routes. The shipment also advances the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Route, a vital corridor for Kazakhstan’s oil exports. In 2022, KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR signed a general agreement to enable the transit of Kazakh oil. In March 2024, the two parties finalized plans for a phased increase in deliveries through Azerbaijan. Under the agreement, annual transit volumes are expected to reach 2.2 million tons. KMG Kashagan B.V., which holds a 16.88% stake in the North Caspian PSA, represents Kazakhstan’s interests in the North Caspian Project (NCP). The company is responsible for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Caspian Sea, as well as the independent transportation and sale of its production share under the PSA’s terms. Energy analysts highlight that diversifying export routes will help Kazakhstan reduce its reliance on traditional oil supply corridors, thereby increasing flexibility and resilience in the face of global market volatility.
Uzbekistan’s Saneg oil refining company has begun processing Afghan crude oil at its Fergana refinery, to help ease Afghanistan’s energy shortages under Taliban rule. The first shipment of oil was transported by rail from the Hairatan terminal in Afghanistan's northern Balkh province. Afghanistan faces a significant energy crisis due to supply issues from Iran and Turkmenistan. The Taliban wants to restart domestic oil production to reduce its dependence on imports. Afghan crude oil, mainly extracted from the Amu Darya basin, is not fully used because Afghanistan needs more facilities to refine it. However, fortunately for Afghanistan, its neighboring countries to the north and west are willing and capable of supplying electricity, gas, and light oil products so that the country can, to some extent, improve its energy security. The refining agreement represents one of the first cross-border collaborations for Afghan crude oil, despite the historically complex relations between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Other countries, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, are looking at similar opportunities to gain market share and indirectly support the Afghan economy. This shows how the Central Asian countries are changing their strategies while Afghanistan is isolated internationally. For example, at the end of April this year, a delegation from Kazakhstan paid an official visit to Kabul, where a meeting of the Kazakh and Afghan businesses and an exhibition of Kazakh products were held. The visit to Kabul shows Astana’s intention of using trade to improve Kazakhstan’s relations with the new Afghan government. Saneg’s initiative to process Afghan oil is part of Uzbekistan's strategy to boost its refining and seize business opportunities in a volatile region. Exporting refined products to Afghanistan could bring extra revenue, and help a struggling neighbor. However, political instability and fragile relations may limit the long-term benefits. Companies from Russia are also interested in similar deals. Uzbekistan has also signed five agreements on mining projects in Afghanistan. These agreements, worth $1.15 billion, were part of a larger package of 35 agreements and memoranda of understanding signed between the two countries. These agreements increased Uzbekistan’s investment in Afghanistan by more than $2.5 billion.
Kazakhstan has begun supplying oil to Europe via the Druzhba oil pipeline system through Russia. The first oil shipments have already arrived in Germany, where amid current geopolitical challenges, it has become an important part of the country's energy security . Acting through its Kazakh subsidiary Agip Caspian Sea, the Italian company Eni, has shipped the first 20,000 tons of oil as part of a test delivery via the Atyrau-Samara route, with further transportation via the Druzhba pipeline. Kazakhstan now plans to deliver up to 1.2 million tons of oil to Germany via this system this year, following an agreement with the Russian side, to ensure uninterrupted supplies to Europe despite the sanctions restrictions on Russian oil. Historically, the pipeline has been one of the largest routes for Russian oil supplies to Europe, but its use has undergone significant changes in recent years due to sanctions. Faced with these changes, Kazakhstan's proposals to increase oil supplies through this route, could not only play a key role in ensuring energy stability in the region but also demonstrate the country's strategic importance as a major player in the global oil market and its ability to adapt to changes in global energy policy.
