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EAEU

Putin’s Astana Visit Shows What Russia Still Wants From Kazakhstan

The Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana gave Vladimir Putin's state visit a wider stage. The summit produced technical documents and familiar language about integration. The bilateral Russia-Kazakhstan package around it was more concrete. It showed what Moscow still wants from Kazakhstan, and what Astana expects in return. The detail lies in infrastructure, where contracts can last for decades. The setting echoed history. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia signed the treaty creating the Eurasian Economic Union in Astana on May 29, 2014, with Armenia joining in January 2015, and Kyrgyzstan in August of the same year. In 2026, the bloc returned to Astana for the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the V Eurasian Economic Forum. The theme of the forum was artificial intelligence, digital regulation, and the EAEU's place in the global technology race. Its website said 14 integration documents were signed on the sidelines, including memoranda, agreements, protocols, and joint action plans. Those documents gave the visit a regional frame. The larger result came on May 28, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Putin oversaw a broad set of bilateral agreements. Akorda listed nuclear power, Russian export credit, expanded oil-sector cooperation, a tenge-ruble currency swap, education projects, financial monitoring, transport digitalization, and nuclear safety regulation. That package points to the real agenda: energy, transit, payments, industrial production, and public-facing alliance language. For Moscow, Kazakhstan’s primary value is geographic: it sits between Russia and China, and across routes that connect Central Asia to Europe, the Caspian, and South Asia. Russian crude already crosses Kazakhstan on the Priirtyshsk-Atasu-Alashankou route to China. A KazTransOil contract keeps transit at 10 million tons a year until the end of 2033. The tariff is $15 per ton, excluding VAT. The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline has a design capacity of 20 million tons a year and belongs to Kazakhstan-China Pipeline LLP, a 50-50 venture between KazTransOil and China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company. Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan agreed last year to raise that flow by 2.5 million tons, although the extra volume had not started flowing before Putin’s visit. The new agreement on oil-sector cooperation gives the issue a political push. For Moscow, the route strengthens access to China as Western sanctions keep pressure on Russian exports and payments. For Kazakhstan, it brings fees and gives Astana a useful position in Russia-China energy flows. The nuclear agreement, meanwhile, gives Russia a long-term role in Kazakhstan’s shift to nuclear power. Kazakhstan and Russia signed a $16.5 billion agreement for the Balkhash nuclear power plant at Ulken, near Lake Balkhash. The project covers two VVER-1200 III+ reactors. Kazakhstan held a groundbreaking ceremony for the plant in August 2025, with the active construction phase expected to begin in 2027, and the first reactor expected in early 2034. Russia will provide export credit for the first plant, with Rosatom leading the Balkhash project after competition with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), France’s EDF, and Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power. But Kazakhstan has not handed the wider program to Moscow....

Fuel prices

Why Oil-Rich Kazakhstan Is Bracing for Higher Fuel Prices

Fuel prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise significantly, according to Kazakh energy analysts. Although the country remains a major oil exporter and plans to expand its refining capacity, analysts warn that these measures alone will not resolve the structural problems behind rising fuel costs. Some Kazakh energy analysts have already described 2026 as “the final year of cheap gasoline” before Kazakhstan becomes more closely integrated into the Eurasian Economic Union’s common oil and petroleum products market. The situation is further complicated by the conflict in the Middle East, which has added volatility to global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, however, the deeper problem is domestic: low-regulated prices, refinery constraints, gray-market exports, and the rising cost of crude. Higher fuel prices also carry particular political sensitivity. The unrest that shook the country in January 2022 was triggered by a sharp increase in liquefied petroleum gas prices. Any new surge in gasoline or diesel costs could ripple through the economy, accelerating inflation and increasing social tensions. A Politically Explosive Commodity Kazakhstan’s leadership learned the political risks of fuel pricing during the January 2022 crisis, when protests erupted in the western city of Zhanaozen after liquefied petroleum gas prices rose sharply. Although the government quickly intervened and blamed unscrupulous suppliers, the protests rapidly escalated into nationwide unrest. Over several days, 238 people were killed, government buildings and security facilities were seized in multiple cities, and the country faced its worst political crisis since independence. In response, the authorities imposed a 180-day moratorium on fuel price increases, with some restrictions lasting even longer. Even then, it was clear that artificially suppressing fuel prices required substantial state subsidies, while the cost of oil extraction continued to rise. The “Last Year” of Cheap Fuel? Earlier this year, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy warned that domestic fuel prices would need to gradually move closer to those in Russia by the end of 2026. Officials linked the expected price convergence to the planned launch of the EAEU’s common oil and petroleum products market on January 1, 2027. At current exchange rates, gasoline prices at Kazakh filling stations remain roughly half those in Russia. A similar price gap exists with Kyrgyzstan, encouraging the unofficial export of cheap Kazakh fuel to neighboring countries. In practice, that means Kazakhstan faces pressure from both sides: raising prices risks public anger, while keeping them low encourages fuel to leave the country unofficially. The Energy Ministry insists that future price increases will not amount to “shock therapy” for consumers. Officials say the transition toward a common EAEU fuel market will occur gradually through legislative harmonization rather than through an immediate equalization of prices across member states. At the same time, the authorities acknowledge that the large price gap with neighboring countries creates strong incentives for gray-market exports of subsidized fuel, increasing the risk of artificial shortages inside Kazakhstan. According to the ministry, the current low-price environment also limits investment in the sector. Significant funding is needed to expand the Shymkent, Atyrau and Pavlodar refineries and,...

Fuel prices

Central Asia Feels Fuel Strain as Kazakhstan Prices Edge Higher

Kazakhstan's fuel market is moving into a new phase after the end of the government freeze on AI-92 gasoline and diesel. Pump prices have risen by small amounts so far. Retail prices are rising cautiously amid growing pressure from neighbors where fuel costs more. Kazakhstan still has some of the cheapest gasoline in the region, but that advantage creates a risk: cheap fuel attracts cross-border demand and makes it harder to fund the refining capacity the country says it needs. On October 16, 2025, Kazakhstan's government introduced a moratorium on further increases in AI-92 gasoline and diesel as part of a wider anti-inflation package. The decision also put the Energy Ministry, the competition agency, and regional authorities in charge of keeping supplies stable. The measure came after inflation and tariff reforms had raised concerns about household costs. The freeze ended on April 1, 2026, but by mid-April, the Energy Ministry was still trying to calm expectations. Kazinform cited Vice Minister of Energy Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbayev on April 14 as saying most prices had risen mainly by one tenge after the moratorium was lifted, and that the state would not allow a sharp jump. The tone matched what drivers were seeing: a controlled rise rather than a sudden reset. The memory of January 2022, when an LPG price jump helped spark unrest, still hangs over fuel policy. The end of the freeze also fed into inflation expectations. National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov warned in April that renewed growth in fuel prices and utility tariffs had to be handled cautiously, because a sharp reset could reverse the slowdown in inflation. The National Bank later said reforms in utility tariffs and fuel prices accounted for 32.9% of household inflation expectations in March. That made the fuel moratorium more than a pump-price measure: it was one of the state’s main tools for containing expectations while inflation remained in double digits. An April 9 check by Tengri Auto found that most filling stations in Almaty and the surrounding area were still selling fuel close to the previous price range. Several major networks, however, had already moved AI-92 toward 240 tenge per liter. AI-95, which was not covered by the main freeze, had risen to 328 tenge at one network. A Kazinform market check published on May 25 showed the same gradual pattern. AI-92 was listed at 238-239 tenge per liter in Astana, 238-241 tenge in Almaty, and 224-227 tenge in Shymkent. Diesel stood at 329 tenge in Astana, 330-337 tenge in Almaty, and 332-335 tenge in Shymkent. The figures point to a market that is moving, but still under close control. Fuel is also feeding into Kazakhstan's broader inflation picture. The Bureau of National Statistics put annual inflation at 10.6% in April 2026. Petrol prices were up 16.1% year-on-year and added 0.53 percentage points to annual price growth. Transport as a category added 1.1 percentage points. Fuel is one of the costs households notice most directly, and its effects spread through freight, food distribution, agriculture, taxis,...

Energy

Uzbekistan Expands Energy Cooperation With SOCAR and BP at Energy Week Forum

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held talks on May 13 with executives from Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR and energy giant BP during the Uzbekistan Energy Week 2026 forum in Tashkent. According to the Uzbekistan's presidency, Mirziyoyev met with SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, as well as BP representatives Ariel Flores and Giovanni Cristofoli, to discuss expanding cooperation in the energy and oil and gas sectors. The sides noted the growing partnership between Uzbekistan and SOCAR, particularly in the development of hydrocarbon fields on the Ustyurt Plateau in western Uzbekistan. Officials also agreed to open a SOCAR representative office in Uzbekistan as cooperation between the two countries deepens. BP’s participation in the Ustyurt project was also highlighted during the meeting. Discussions focused on joint projects involving oil and gas exploration, hydrocarbon production, deep processing of raw materials, and long-term supplies of oil and petroleum products. The parties also discussed cooperation in training specialists for the energy industry. Najaf also thanked Mirziyoyev for Uzbekistan’s support in preparations for hosting the FIFA U-20 World Cup in 2027, which Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are set to organize jointly. Najaf also serves as chairman of the Association of Football Federations of Azerbaijan. Energy cooperation between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan has expanded significantly over the past year. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov said SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz had established a joint operating company to oversee the Ustyurt project under a Production Sharing Agreement. Mirzamahmudov said seismic surveys covering more than 3,000 kilometers were expected to begin before the end of the year, followed by the drilling of the first exploration well. Last August, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that SOCAR had officially begun operations at an oil field in Uzbekistan. Aliyev said at the time that both sides hoped to make a major oil discovery within the next few years.

Energy cooperation

Kazakhstan Plans More Oil, Gas Cooperation with Uzbekistan, Minister Says

Kazakhstan is looking to deepen energy cooperation with Uzbekistan, with several joint projects already moving into the implementation stage, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on the sidelines of the RES 2026 regional environmental summit in Astana, according to BAQ.KZ. “Exchange of experience and mutual assistance help us solve practical tasks,” Akkenzhenov said. “We are actively cooperating with our partners not only in the energy sector, but across all areas of the economy.” The minister noted that discussions with Uzbekistan cover a number of large-scale initiatives, particularly in petrochemicals and oil refining. “We have many joint projects with Uzbekistan. A recent presidential visit included discussions on numerous initiatives, including the development of the petrochemical industry and the expansion of oil processing,” he said. Cooperation is also expanding in energy transit and supply. Akkenzhenov said the two countries are working closely on the transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan, as well as supplies of Russian oil. “We are also considering the possibility of exporting Kazakh products, including crude oil and petroleum products, to Uzbekistan,” he added. According to him, several of these initiatives have already reached the implementation stage. “Many projects are already in practical phases. Overall, we have built very close cooperation with our Uzbek partners,” he said. Last year, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed that a six-month ban on fuel exports remained in force, halting gasoline shipments to neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan. At the same time, international developments may affect regional supply routes. According to Reuters, Russia plans to halt the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1. The decision is expected to impact deliveries to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, a key supplier for Berlin and Brandenburg. Despite these changes, German officials have said alternative supply routes will be used and that fuel availability will not be affected.

Oil and Gas

Russia to Halt Kazakh Oil Flow to Germany, Exposing Europe’s Transit Vulnerability

Russia will stop the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from May 1 according to Reuters, disrupting a route that Berlin had built up after ending direct Russian crude imports. The move affects supplies to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, a major fuel plant for Berlin and Brandenburg. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the change would begin because of “technical possibilities.” Germany’s economy ministry said Rosneft Germany, which remains under German trusteeship, had informed the Federal Network Agency that transit of Kazakh crude through Russian territory to PCK would be prohibited from that date. The ministry added that the Russian government had not directly notified Berlin. Germany’s economy ministry said the stoppage did not threaten fuel supply and that existing alternatives would be used. About 17% of PCK Schwedt’s current crude supply comes from Kazakh oil delivered through the Druzhba pipeline. Germany’s economy ministry said that “existing options will be utilized to ensure security of supply in Germany” and that the halt “did not put the security of supply of petroleum products in jeopardy.” [caption id="attachment_47676" align="aligncenter" width="1038"] Image: pck.de/[/caption] However, the halt still exposes Germany’s reliance on a route that runs through Russia. Schwedt can process up to 12 million metric tons of oil a year and is a major fuel supplier for Berlin and Brandenburg, so any disruption attracts close attention even if replacement volumes can be found elsewhere. Germany has already looked at alternative deliveries through Rostock and Gdansk. Since 2023, Kazakh crude has reached Germany through Russia and Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline, giving Berlin a non-Russian source of oil and expanding Astana’s role in the European market. But the route still relied on Russian transit approval. The halt comes after two years of growth. Regular deliveries of Kazakh crude to Germany began in 2023, and in October 2025, the supply arrangement was extended through the end of 2026. Kazakhstan had been planning to expand that trade further. During an April 7 meeting with Bavarian State Minister Eric Beißwenger, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said it aimed to raise oil exports to Germany to 2.5 million tons in 2026. Reuters reported that 2.146 million metric tons were delivered in 2025 and that 730,000 tons were supplied in the first quarter of 2026. KazTransOil has separately published its first-quarter operating results. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed that Druzhba transit to Germany would be halted. “For May, transit through Atyrau-Samara in the direction of the Druzhba pipeline and further to the Schwedt refinery is zero,” Akkenzhenov stated. He added that the Russian side, according to unofficial information, said it lacked the technical capability to pump Kazakh oil and that this was “most likely” linked to recent strikes on Russian infrastructure. He said transit would resume once the technical issue was resolved. Kazakh crude sent to Germany through Druzhba first moves via the Uzen-Atyrau-Samara pipeline and then through Transneft’s system to the Adamova Zastava delivery point before reaching Schwedt. The oil is sold as...