Kazakhstan on Europe’s Oil Podium, but for How Long?

Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as one of the key suppliers of oil to the European Union, capitalizing on the redistribution of energy flows following the reduction of Russian crude imports. However, declining production and vulnerabilities in export infrastructure cast doubt on the country’s ability to maintain this position in the medium term. According to official EU data, the EU remains one of the world’s largest oil importers, meeting about 97% of its demand through external supplies. In 2025, EU countries imported approximately 435 million tonnes of crude oil worth more than €212 billion. The reduction in Russia’s share from 25.8% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2025 led to a significant redistribution of flows in favour of alternative suppliers, including the United States (14.6%), Norway (12.8%), and Kazakhstan (12.8%) by crude-oil import volume. Kazakhstan has been among the main beneficiaries of these changes. According to an Econovis Economic Research Laboratory report, the share of Kazakh supplies in European imports has increased for several consecutive years. This growth has been driven by strong demand from European refineries for light, low-sulfur CPC Blend crude. Alongside Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan has also strengthened its position, benefiting from Europe’s diversification efforts. A notable example is the Czech Republic, where, following the cessation of deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, Azerbaijan accounted for more than 42% of oil imports in 2025, according to Czech import data. Kazakhstan ranked third in the Czech market with a share of around 18%, indicating the emergence of a new energy balance in the Caspian region. Despite this favorable external environment, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector has faced a significant downturn. According to government data, in the first quarter of 2026, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 19.7 million tonnes, 20% less than in the same period of 2025. Oil exports declined by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes, while the annual export forecast stands at about 76 million tonnes. By mid-April, however, CPC exports had risen from February levels as Tengiz resumed production, suggesting that some of the early-year disruption had eased. The decline is linked to disruptions in the operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and temporary shutdowns at major fields, including Tengiz. The CPC remains the key export route for Kazakh oil to Europe, transporting most of the crude through the terminal in Novorossiysk. Economic analyst Olzhas Baidildinov said the consequences of attacks on the consortium’s infrastructure could have long-term implications. “Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell by 20% in the first quarter compared to January-March 2025, 19.7 million tonnes versus 24.6 million tonnes. Oil exports decreased by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes. The export forecast for this year is 76 million tonnes,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. According to his estimates, the country will once again fail to surpass the psychologically significant threshold of 100 million tonnes of annual production. “As a result of the attacks on the CPC, at least 6 million tonnes of oil worth no less than $3.4 billion were...

Georgia May Replace Russian Oil with Imports from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan

Georgia’s only oil refinery, owned by Black Sea Petroleum (BSP), plans to completely stop importing Russian oil and instead switch to crude supplies from Turkmenistan and, potentially, Kazakhstan. This was announced by the company’s CEO, David Potskhveria. According to Potskhveria, the shift would not only diversify supply sources but also open access to European markets. “We will completely replace Russian oil with Turkmen oil, and then with Kazakhstani oil. This will give us the opportunity to export products to the EU,” he said. The rationale is straightforward: imports of Russian petroleum products into the European Union are currently prohibited. Maintaining previous supply arrangements would effectively block access to European markets. However, switching suppliers presents logistical challenges. As Potskhveria noted, processing of Turkmen crude can begin only after transit issues through Azerbaijan are resolved. For now, logistics remain the main bottleneck. While the refinery is technically ready, implementation depends on securing reliable transport routes. The proposed move away from Russian oil follows earlier developments. In late February, the EU considered including the Kulevi port on a preliminary sanctions list due to its import and processing of Russian crude. The trigger was a shipment delivered in October 2025 by Russneft, involving approximately 105,000 tons of oil to the port of Kulevi. The shipment prompted criticism from the Georgian opposition, which accused the authorities of undermining the sanctions regime and appealed to European institutions. The Kulevi refinery is a relatively new entrant to the regional oil market. It began operations in December last year and has already outlined expansion plans. Its current processing capacity is around 1.2 million tons per year, with plans to increase this to 4.5 million tons. At present, the facility produces fuel oil, diesel, and other petroleum products. Future plans include expanding output to Euro-5 standard gasoline, jet fuel, and Eurodiesel. BSP’s international partners reportedly include Trafigura and Saudi Aramco.