Experts Call for Seismic Study Ahead of Kambarata-1 Hydropower Construction

At a recent parliamentary session, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, director of the Institute of Seismology and president of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, warned that seismic microzonation has not been conducted at the site of the planned Kambarata-1 hydropower plant (HPP), a critical prerequisite for infrastructure projects of this magnitude. Located in western Kyrgyzstan, the Kambarata-1 HPP is a joint venture between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, with financial support from the World Bank. The facility is expected to have a capacity of 1,860 MW, with a reservoir volume of 4.5 billion cubic meters. The dam is projected to stand 256 meters tall and house four turbines capable of generating over 5.5 billion kWh annually. The total estimated cost of the project is $5-6 billion. The statement has raised alarms over the country’s most ambitious hydroelectric initiative since independence. Abdrakhmatov said scientists had twice appealed to the Ministry of Energy requesting the study, but received no response. He cautioned that the ministry is underestimating the potential seismic risks. “We are about to launch the Kambarata-1 project. It is crucial to understand that seismic microzonation must be carried out before projects of this magnitude begin. Unfortunately, this has not been done,” Abdrakhmatov said. “This raises serious concerns, because if an earthquake occurs, the dam could collapse, which in turn could destroy Kambarata-2 and other hydropower plants downstream on the Naryn River.” He further noted that the dam is planned between two mountain ridges, one significantly higher than the other. Since seismic waves interact differently with varying topographies, a powerful earthquake could cause destabilization and structural damage. Conducting a microzonation study would help mitigate such risks. The Ministry of Energy has dismissed the concerns raised by domestic seismologists, maintaining that the design of the curved gravity dam is safe. According to the ministry, AFRY Switzerland Ltd, the company preparing the project’s feasibility study, engaged international experts to assess the seismic profile of the region. The ministry stated that the expert team conducted an analysis of seismic sources, earthquake history, and regional tectonics using data from the National Institute of Seismology and the Central Asian earthquake catalog. Based on their findings, a curved gravity dam design was proposed to enhance both hydraulic performance and structural resilience. “Following comprehensive studies and numerous expert-level discussions, a seismic hazard assessment of the construction area was provided. The curved gravity dam design proposed for Kambarata-1 is expected to improve both efficiency and resilience,” the ministry reported. Nevertheless, the ministry added that it remains open to further in-depth seismic studies and may still conduct a microzonation survey as recommended by local scientists. “To date, enormous preparatory work has been carried out for Kambarata-1. We are moving toward the start of major construction. However, speculation by some of our seismology experts, who are unfamiliar with the latest reports, is deeply regrettable, it is nothing but slander and sabotage,” the ministry added in a strongly worded statement.

Kyrgyz Energy Ministry Rejects Concerns About Seismic Safety of Future Kambarata-1 HPP

The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy has dismissed concerns raised by leading seismologists about the seismic safety of the planned Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), a flagship regional energy project jointly backed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on September 9, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, President of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences and Director of the Institute of Seismology, warned that the future dam may be vulnerable to strong earthquakes due to its proposed location. Seismic Warnings from Scientists “The dam is planned in a dangerous area, surrounded by mountains,” Abdrakhmatov said. “It may not withstand a powerful earthquake.” He stressed that preliminary seismic micro-zoning studies had not been conducted and said his institute had written twice to the Ministry of Energy requesting such research, but received no response. He warned that the destruction of Kambarata-1 in the event of a major earthquake could trigger cascading failures downstream, including at the existing Kambarata-2 HPP and other facilities. Ministry and International Experts Respond In a formal statement issued on September 10, the Ministry of Energy rejected the criticism and pointed to a recent review conducted by Swiss engineering consultancy AFRY, which is responsible for updating the feasibility study for the project. According to the ministry, AFRY commissioned a team of international experts, including renowned dam safety specialists Dr. Martin Wieland and Dr. Stefan Ehlers, to carry out a comprehensive seismic analysis of the proposed site. The assessment used geological, tectonic, and seismic data, as well as satellite imagery and historical earthquake records. The experts recommended constructing a curved gravity dam, which they said would improve both the structural stability and hydraulic performance of the plant. AFRY concluded that the dam would withstand projected seismic loads and stated that “its overall behavior in terms of load-bearing capacity is safe.” Ongoing Safety Measures The ministry also stated that further detailed safety studies are planned. These include the creation of a seismic micro-zoning map and the installation of three to five seismic monitoring stations at strategic points: along the dam’s axis, on both riverbanks, at the crest level, and upstream from the site. The Kambarata-1 HPP is expected to become the largest hydropower facility in Kyrgyzstan. With a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and average annual generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, the $4 billion project is seen as a critical step in alleviating chronic electricity shortages in the country. Construction Preparations Underway The Ministry of Energy has reported steady progress in preparatory works. Infrastructure projects currently underway include the construction of access roads, power transmission lines, a substation, a bridge across the Naryn River, and a shift camp for construction workers.